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Montee Ball 2013 Season Outlook

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Coach John Fox insists the Broncos aren't concerned about No. 58 pick Montee Ball's 924 college carries.

The Broncos see it as a positive, as Ball has proven himself a bellcow back. He's going to be that in Denver. "I don't think it's wear and tear," said Fox. "I think it looks like he can handle the workload." VP of Football Operations John Elway also revealed the Broncos haggled between Ball and Eddie Lacy at No. 58. Lacy went three picks later to Green Bay. "It was a close call," Elway said. "It came down to the medical (report)."

I didn't have Ball on my draft watch list due to his extensive college use, but situation warrants a look. Moreno has had 2 knee surgeries in 2 years. McGahee is on the wrong side of 30 and is coming off torn MCL & broken leg. Fannin has torn his achilles and ACL all before age 25. Elway says Hillman is a change of pace back.

The door appears wide open for Ball to step in and become an every down force for the Broncos. Fox is apparently not worried about the tread left on Ball's tires rather see it as proof of durability and experience.

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I think he is solid. My favorite RB from this class, good landing spot.

I will draft him and then name my team, 'The Full Montee'.

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He's got the opportunity - so for 2013, he'll likely be the #2 rookie RB behind Bernard. As I said in the NFL draft thread, as a Broncos fan I would have taken Lacy or Franklin hands-down over Ball - but for 2013 there's no denying he'll get the touches and opportunity, McGahee is as good as toast. Much like Vick Ballard in IND, if you have the opportunity and the O is great, those can trump overall skills. As much as I dislike the pick (because he's not a home run hitter or a huge thumper, and he's got huge mileage, and frankly, there were 3 better RB's available at that slot, but I digress...), you have to upgrade him to a real FFB threat at RB for 2013.

In real-life terms, I suspect he'll go down as the 5th-6th best back in this draft when it's all said and done - but FFB-wise, for 2013, you have to put him there with Bernard & ahead of Bell in the 2013 rookie class, given the O he's in, the lack of true competition, and the likelihood the Broncos will be sitting on leads in the 2H for their AFC West games (and other blowouts).

P.S. Elway & the FO are kidding themselves if they don't think workload is a red flag. This isn't even debatable. Oh well...Broncos' shortsightedness is the Pack's gain. Again, this has zero bearing on 2013, as I'm thinking of 2015 onwards (crazy to think a rookie will start to wear out after 2-3 seasons), just in the vent phase of my fan grief....

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I think he is solid. My favorite RB from this class, good landing spot.

I will draft him and then name my team, 'The Full Montee'.

Handcuff him with Lance Ball and you can roll with the 2BallB*tches.

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The heavy usage in college doesn't bother me. The mileage really starts to count when you get to the pros.

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I think he is solid. My favorite RB from this class, good landing spot.

I will draft him and then name my team, 'The Full Montee'.

Handcuff him with Lance Ball and you can roll with the 2BallB*tches.

Or better yet - draft Montee and the Seattle Defense and you'll have team 'Ball Sacks'

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The heavy usage in college doesn't bother me. The mileage really starts to count when you get to the pros.

Completely agree on the college carries/mileage issue, it's totally overblown as a worry. Dude's only 22 years old. As a comparison, here's a list of some of the other RB career carries leaders from the NCAA:

Ricky Williams - 1011, Herschel Walker - 994, DeAngelo Williams - 969, Thurmon Thomas - 956, LaDainian - 943, Michael Turner - 940, Montee - 924, Ray Rice - 910. All of these guys turned out just fine in the NFL, right?

I had gone on record by saying PIT or GB would be a good landing spot for him but going to DEN may be even better far his fantasy outlook. We'll see how things shake out in training camp and preseason but the opportunity is there for Ball to have a huge rookie season. The only thing that will hold him back is if the team keeps McGahee and/or doesn't give Montee the starting RB job.

I've watched almost every Wisconsin game over these last 3 seasons and will say that Ball's not the fastest guy but he's quick enough and has a tremendous nose for the end zone. More importantly, his vision and instinct in seeing the hole early and knowing where to run is phenomenal. It's still way early but I see myself targeting Montee on all my teams.

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Anyone remember Edge's rookie year in a Peyton Manning led offense? Giddy-Up!!

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Willis McGahee through the first 10 games - 167/731/4 and 26/221

Knowshon Moreno the remaing 6 games - 130/510/3 and 21/167

So combine that and you have roughly 300 carries for 1,241 yards and 7 TDs + 47 receptions for 388 yards.

Both of these RBs were good, not elite. But the situation for RBs in Denver is great with Manning there. If this kid even looks like he'll be getting the full workload, I'll make sure he's on my team.

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The heavy usage in college doesn't bother me. The mileage really starts to count when you get to the pros.

Completely agree on the college carries/mileage issue, it's totally overblown as a worry. Dude's only 22 years old. As a comparison, here's a list of some of the other RB career carries leaders from the NCAA:

Ricky Williams - 1011, Herschel Walker - 994, DeAngelo Williams - 969, Thurmon Thomas - 956, LaDainian - 943, Michael Turner - 940, Montee - 924, Ray Rice - 910. All of these guys turned out just fine in the NFL, right?

I had gone on record by saying PIT or GB would be a good landing spot for him but going to DEN may be even better far his fantasy outlook. We'll see how things shake out in training camp and preseason but the opportunity is there for Ball to have a huge rookie season. The only thing that will hold him back is if the team keeps McGahee and/or doesn't give Montee the starting RB job.

I've watched almost every Wisconsin game over these last 3 seasons and will say that Ball's not the fastest guy but he's quick enough and has a tremendous nose for the end zone. More importantly, his vision and instinct in seeing the hole early and knowing where to run is phenomenal. It's still way early but I see myself targeting Montee on all my teams.

The thing is, all of those guys you quoted - they also had very special skill sets, or were big-time bruisers. The list also leaves out the guys who were big-time bellcow backs for 2-3 years, but who weren't special backs skills-wise. I agree the NCAA miles don't matter as much as NFL miles - but they do matter if the skill set isn't elite, and it isn't here with Ball. Ball's best skill is his vision, and his willingness to hit the hole hard - but IMO he doesn't the lateral quickness make guys miss at the NFL level, or have the extra gear, and he's not the same kind of bruiser that you get with Lacy - I doubt he can run over guys in the NFL and fall forward with his physique and lack of speed.

Again, none of this takes away from the fact he's got the best fantasy RB situation for 2013. That's a given. I just suspect we'll be seeing DEN looking for another RB solution in another 2 years, or worse yet, next draft (more likely it's 2 years). Again, I'm saying this as a Bronco fan, not in terms of fantasy - there's no denying he's either the top or 2nd rookie RB that should go, being in that O, and assuming McGahee gets cut (which as much as I have my concerns about Ball, no reason to keep McGahee over him). And believe me, as I said in the draft thread and here, I truly hope I'm wrong...

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The heavy usage in college doesn't bother me. The mileage really starts to count when you get to the pros.

Completely agree on the college carries/mileage issue, it's totally overblown as a worry. Dude's only 22 years old. As a comparison, here's a list of some of the other RB career carries leaders from the NCAA:

Ricky Williams - 1011, Herschel Walker - 994, DeAngelo Williams - 969, Thurmon Thomas - 956, LaDainian - 943, Michael Turner - 940, Montee - 924, Ray Rice - 910. All of these guys turned out just fine in the NFL, right?

I had gone on record by saying PIT or GB would be a good landing spot for him but going to DEN may be even better far his fantasy outlook. We'll see how things shake out in training camp and preseason but the opportunity is there for Ball to have a huge rookie season. The only thing that will hold him back is if the team keeps McGahee and/or doesn't give Montee the starting RB job.

I've watched almost every Wisconsin game over these last 3 seasons and will say that Ball's not the fastest guy but he's quick enough and has a tremendous nose for the end zone. More importantly, his vision and instinct in seeing the hole early and knowing where to run is phenomenal. It's still way early but I see myself targeting Montee on all my teams.

The thing is, all of those guys you quoted - they also had very special skill sets, or were big-time bruisers. The list also leaves out the guys who were big-time bellcow backs for 2-3 years, but who weren't special backs skills-wise. I agree the NCAA miles don't matter as much as NFL miles - but they do matter if the skill set isn't elite, and it isn't here with Ball. Ball's best skill is his vision, and his willingness to hit the hole hard - but IMO he doesn't the lateral quickness make guys miss at the NFL level, or have the extra gear, and he's not the same kind of bruiser that you get with Lacy - I doubt he can run over guys in the NFL and fall forward with his physique and lack of speed.

Again, none of this takes away from the fact he's got the best fantasy RB situation for 2013. That's a given. I just suspect we'll be seeing DEN looking for another RB solution in another 2 years, or worse yet, next draft (more likely it's 2 years). Again, I'm saying this as a Bronco fan, not in terms of fantasy - there's no denying he's either the top or 2nd rookie RB that should go, being in that O, and assuming McGahee gets cut (which as much as I have my concerns about Ball, no reason to keep McGahee over him). And believe me, as I said in the draft thread and here, I truly hope I'm wrong...

I believe in his ability to have long-term success in the NFL as a solid RB. We'll see though. The biggest worry that I have for 2013 is that HC John Fox has a terrible track record when it comes to him playing rookie RB. If McGahee is still on the roster week 1, this will be a huge problem for Ball.

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I'll be watching what Fox says about pass protection with Ball as well as any other rookie. If he does this well, he plays. Let Peyton take a big hit and sit.

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Great spot for him. The incumbents both finished the year in the hospital, by default the job is his. He'll have no obstacles to proving himself.

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Great spot for him. The incumbents both finished the year in the hospital, by default the job is his. He'll have no obstacles to proving himself.

I wish it were this simple because Ball is the most talented RB on the DEN roster and has the most fantasy potential for 2013. However, it seems that the team is willing to keep both McGahee and Moreno plus they have Hillman entering year 2 as a change of pace guy. The team keeping or cutting McGahee will be the key to Ball's 2013 fantasy value.

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Should we get this hype train going? Coaches talked him up, and basically every running back that lines up behind Peyton has fantastic numbers because of Peyton's vision and audible ability. He's not the flashiest runner but I believe he is going to be a tremendous value if he can protect Peyton when necessary.

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y' timestamp='1368588410' post='3493311'][/size]

and basically every running back that lines up behind Peyton has fantastic numbers because of Peyton's vision and audible ability.

ALMOST every running back...

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Damn ESPN has this guy ranked in the 30s and going for $18 in auction. At this ADP, he might be disappointing

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I agree, predator. Ball definitely has significant value but the "wise-guys" will spend all summer hyping him up and his expectations may be a bit unreasonable by the time draft season arrives.

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I agree, predator. Ball definitely has significant value but the "wise-guys" will spend all summer hyping him up and his expectations may be a bit unreasonable by the time draft season arrives.

They got an early start. I saw somewhere today where he was ranked 30th overall.

At first when I heard he was ranked in the 30s, I thought, "Hmmm. 30th RB overall? That seems a little low imo." Then I saw where he was 30th overall and lol'd. I mean, I understand he should be a solid fantasy back but come on, there's no way I'm taking him that early.

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I've done about a half dozen mocks on FFC already, and I'm usually picking 9th or 10th and he's usually a pretty solid option at my 3rd round picks (#33 or 34), for sure he's a great pick in the 4th (#39 or 40) -- but there's been at least 1 or 2 drafts where he goes before I even pick in the 3rd. 30 seems a little excessive, but mid 30's is probably gonna be pretty close.

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30th is definitely reaching but his ADP is similar to Doug Martin's last year with a little bit more (if not the same) hype. I gambled on Martin in the 4th last season and it payed off big time.

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Did anybody watch this kid at college ? Is he a smart player than can pick up the playbook/block for Peyton ? If he can learn those two things quickly a 1200/10 season is almost guaranteed without an injury

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