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shypri

Offenses to avoid/take advantage of

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It drives me crazy reading in blurbs. "He has a tough test next week facing the Nationals @ home". "Should get back on track against a slumping Brewers offense"......

Maybe we could rank the offenses. One ranking for pitching away and one for pitching at home. Should help streaming and benching. My lists would look like this atm

pitching away: sit em there > start em there

1@Colorado

2@Detroit

3@Texas

4@Boston

5@Cincinatti

6@Atlanta

7@Baltimore

8@Yankees

9@Anaheim

10@Toronto

11@Milwaukee

12@Philadelphia

13@Arizona

14@St Louis

15@White Sox

16@Kansas City

17@Oakland

18@Tampa Bay

19@Cleveland

20@San Francisco

21@Cubs

22@Washington

23@Mets

24@Dodgers

25@Pittsburgh

26@Minnesota

27@Seattle

28@San Diego

29@Miami

30@Houston

pitching at home:

1 vs.Detroit

2 vs.Anaheim

3 vs.Atlanta

4 vs.Boston

5 vs.Texas

6 vs.Oakland

7 vs.Kansas City

8 vs.Baltimore

9 vs.Yankees

10 vs.St Louis

11 vs.Toronto

12 vs.Dodgers

13 vs.Milwaukee

14 vs. Washington

15 vs.San Francisco

16 vs.Tampa Bay

17 vs.Cincinatti

18 vs.Cleveland

19 vs.Minnesota

20 vs.Philadelphia

21 vs.Pittsburgh

22 vs.Colorado

23 vs.Mets

24 vs.White Sox

25 vs.Arizona

26 vs.San Diego

27 vs.Seattle

28 vs.Cubs

29 vs.Miami

30 vs.Houston

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lets just be real straight right now. Avoid St Louis at all cost. they are 7 deep

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Avoid the Red Sox @ Fenway. If I can offer any newbie a piece of advice it's that. Unless you're throwing an ace out there it's just not worth it. The Red Sox @ Fenway has a potential to kill ratios or lose you a week. The Yankees in general because those pinstripes apparently have magical powers, @COL is a safe bet to avoid. Though I tossed Dickey out there today figuring the Yankees are starting Overbay and Boesch and I got burned in one league. So go figure.

I have targeted the Mets (H/A), SD (H), HOU(H/A), CHC (H/A) and MIA (H/A).

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Avoid the Red Sox @ Fenway. If I can offer any newbie a piece of advice it's that. Unless you're throwing an ace out there it's just not worth it. The Red Sox @ Fenway has a potential to kill ratios or lose you a week. The Yankees in general because those pinstripes apparently have magical powers, @COL is a safe bet to avoid. Though I tossed Dickey out there today figuring the Yankees are starting Overbay and Boesch and I got burned in one league. So go figure.

I have targeted the Mets (H/A), SD (H), HOU(H/A), CHC (H/A) and MIA (H/A).

Those are mine too. I also have the Mariners on that list. They have so many just putrid awful hitters on there team. Low BB, High K guys. You can usually rack strikeouts up by starting guys against them in most locations. Minnesota after there top 4 may the worst in the league, just so many awful hitters. I am going to expose them this season as well.

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Five best matchups IMO:

1. Miami Home and Away- A bunch of punch and judy hitters. Donovan Solano was hitting 5th today LOL. Stanton may hit a bomb, but the rest of that lineup does nothing. No one besides Stanton is slugging over .400. Easily the worst lineup in the league.

2. Houston Home and Away- Just enormous K totals, terrible approach. Have a few guys who can run into a ball, but you're ensured big K totals.

3. Cubs Home and Away- Not a slam dunk. The top 4 in the lineup (DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano) can do damage on a given day, but they still possess a team OPS of .679 and the bottom of the lineup is awful.

4. Mariners at Home- Seager's pretty solid, Morales is OK, Morse has power but is a complete hacker. Saunders is coming back and is decent. But the rest of that lineup is just pathetic. A team .668 OPS at Safeco and they are awful there every year.

5. San Diego at Home- Padres actually have some solid hitters, but Petco is still the premier pitcher's park in the league. The Mets at home could make a case for this as well.

Five Worst Matchups IMO:

1. Colorado at Home- No brainer. Very few pitchers I would start there. The Rockies have an .807 OPS as a team at home so far.

2. Boston at Home- Fenway is a brutal place to pitch and that lineup has been better than expected so far.

3. Cincinnati at Home- The Great American Bandbox is no joke.

4. Texas at Home- Lineup is a little down from the past, but Arlington is still an absolutely terrible place to pitch.

5. Detroit at Home- Edges out St Louis for me. Once Martinez gets going, that lineup is going to be frightening.

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Offenses I avoid:

NYY - Yankee Stadium is a launching pad and even though there lineup isn't as strong as in year's past, they are still putting up runs.

BAL - The O's have a solid offense. McLouth is great at the top and Markakis/Jones/Davis have also been real strong this year.

BOS - Fenway is proving that it can kill pitchers again this year. I don't feel comfortable starting guys against them.

DET - They're built from top to bottom. Probably the top lineup in the AL.

OAK (road only) - O.Co is a big park that helps pitchers pitch, but that offense is still underratedly good on the road.

LAA - That lineup is going to wake up soon, and I don't want it to be against my pitcher.

ATL - They'll have hot and cold stretches, but can also be very dangerous with Upton/Freeman/Gattis leading the charge

STL - They are just a very good offense. Anyone in the lineup can hurt you, so I generally stay away.

CIN - Choo/Votto/Phillips/Frazier have been great so far, plus GABP is a top park for homers (or at least was)

COL (home only) - Never play a pitcher in Coors field. That's rule #1 for playing matchups.

Offenses I stream against:

OAK (home only) - It's mainly just because I tend to play their pitchers at home.

SEA - Their lineup has some truly horrid hitters. I don't understand how Ackley/Bay/Andino/Ryan are still in a MLB lineup.

HOU - The lineup has potential to score runs, but they make up for it with K's they pile up. It's a shame Brett Wallace got demoted.

MIA - Stanton is the only hitter in the lineup that can do any damage to a pitcher. That lineup is putrid.

PIT (road only) - This one may be mistaken, but aren't they just horrible hitting on the road?

CHC - If the wind isn't blowing out, the lineup doesn't have much that will hurt a pitcher.

SD - Another lineup that has few pieces. PetCo is a big park, and almost any pitcher is safe to start there.

The rest of the offenses don't really stick out as matchup plays.

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Five best matchups:

1. Miami Home and Away- A bunch of punch and judy hitters. Donovan Solano was hitting 5th today LOL. Stanton may hit a bomb, but the rest of that lineup does nothing. No one besides Stanton is slugging over .400. Easily the worst lineup in the league.

2. Houston Home and Away- Just enormous K totals, terrible approach. Have a few guys who can run into a ball, but you're ensured big K totals.

3. Cubs Home and Away- Not a slam dunk. The top 4 in the lineup (DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano) can do damage on a given day, but they still possess a team OPS of .679 and the bottom of the lineup is awful.

4. Mariners at Home- Seager's pretty solid, Morales is OK, Morse has power but is a complete hacker. Saunders is coming back and is decent. But the rest of that lineup is just pathetic. A team .668 OPS at Safeco and they are awful there every year.

5. San Diego at Home- Padres actually have some solid hitters, but Petco is still the premier pitcher's park in the league.

Five Worst Matchups

1. Colorado at Home- No brainer. Very few pitchers I would start there. The Rockies have an .807 OPS as a team at home so far.

2. Boston at Home- Fenway is a brutal place to pitch and that lineup has been better than expected so far.

3. Cincinnati at Home- The Great American Bandbox is no joke.

4. Texas at Home- Lineup is a little down from the past, but Arlington is still an absolutely terrible place to pitch.

5. Detroit at Home- Edges out St Louis for me. Once Martinez gets going, that lineup is going to be frightening.

Great post. I'll add to help others out here:

For those in need of strikeouts:

1. Houston Astros - 27.4% of the time an Astros hitter strikes out. Home or Away it's a no brainer.

2. Atlanta Braves - 24.5% Uggla (35.3%) Francisco (34.8%), R. Johnson (32%), BJ Upton (31%). Freeman and Upton are both over 25% as well. There's danger, obviously, but if you have a pitcher with a solid K-Rate it might be worth the risk.

3. White Sox - 23.2% - Flowers (36.9%), Wise (36.8%), Dayan (33.3%), Dunn (33.3%), De Aza, (29.2%), Danks, Gillaspie, and Beckham all over 20% with limited skill to hurt you).

Also wOBA has the best offenses in baseball as:

1. Rockies

2. Red Sox

3. Athletics

4. Yankees

5. Rangers

Solid list there. Your most patient teams (take a look at your pitchers BB%, if it's over 8% avoid the following high OBP teams:

1. Tigers

2. Rockies

3. Red Sox

4. Athletics

5. Dodgers

5b. Reds

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Combine this with pitcher friendly umpires and you'll have quite the leg up

If only I could stalk Runge for an entire season! If anyone can find that data...I know I've looked in the past.

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Rockies away from Coors I'm not afraid of.

Toronto Blue Jays right now I'll stream against in more pitcher friendly parks. Their offense is sputtering and their pitching has been atrocious.

Miami home and away.

Houston home and away.

But the thing is I wont start a pitcher I don't trust against anyone.

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Five best matchups IMO:

1. Miami Home and Away- A bunch of punch and judy hitters. Donovan Solano was hitting 5th today LOL. Stanton may hit a bomb, but the rest of that lineup does nothing. No one besides Stanton is slugging over .400. Easily the worst lineup in the league.

2. Houston Home and Away- Just enormous K totals, terrible approach. Have a few guys who can run into a ball, but you're ensured big K totals.

3. Cubs Home and Away- Not a slam dunk. The top 4 in the lineup (DeJesus, Castro, Rizzo, Soriano) can do damage on a given day, but they still possess a team OPS of .679 and the bottom of the lineup is awful.

4. Mariners at Home- Seager's pretty solid, Morales is OK, Morse has power but is a complete hacker. Saunders is coming back and is decent. But the rest of that lineup is just pathetic. A team .668 OPS at Safeco and they are awful there every year.

5. San Diego at Home- Padres actually have some solid hitters, but Petco is still the premier pitcher's park in the league. The Mets at home could make a case for this as well.

Five Worst Matchups IMO:

1. Colorado at Home- No brainer. Very few pitchers I would start there. The Rockies have an .807 OPS as a team at home so far.

2. Boston at Home- Fenway is a brutal place to pitch and that lineup has been better than expected so far.

3. Cincinnati at Home- The Great American Bandbox is no joke.

4. Texas at Home- Lineup is a little down from the past, but Arlington is still an absolutely terrible place to pitch.

5. Detroit at Home- Edges out St Louis for me. Once Martinez gets going, that lineup is going to be frightening.

I agree with almost all of this but I think the Reds are a bit overrated. They are inconsistent and they do have a lot of K's in that lineup, even their good hitters (Choo, Bruce, Frazier) will punch out. I would put Detroit at 3 and STL in there somewhere.

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Only reason I had Cincy that high is the Great American Bandbox. That park is just an absolute joke. It's the only park in the league that gives up cheap homers to dead center field. Just a comically small park. I do agree with you that Detroit and St Louis have better lineups all around than Cincy, but much less hitter-friendly ballparks. They're all scary matchups at home.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, April 29, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

Does that mean you guys wouldn't stream Phelps against Hou at Yankee Stadium??

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It's been said a few times, but @Oak may not be the same place to stream against as it was before. A very patient team although it's made up mostly of no name players.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, April 29, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

Jay I don't think anyone stated that. I wouldn't start a pitcher vs the Yankees @ YS.

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Going to update this thread with a few notes. The Marlins have separated themselves as the clear #1 option. Here are the numbers. A .599 OPS as a team, over 50 points lower than any other team. They have 23 homers as a team, worst in the majors. They're on pace to shatter the futility of the legendary 2010 Mariners, who had a .637 team OPS with 101 homers as a team. The Mariners averaged 3.1 runs per game that year, the Marlins are at 2.6. This may be the worst offense in the live ball era.

Some other notes: Washington has the second worst team OPS in the league, at .653. They obviously have some guys who can hurt you, but that offense has been really awful

Philadelphia is a horrid offense, 26th in team OPS, particularly if Utley misses time. Ton of low OBP hackers. I started Bronson Arroyo the other day against them with supreme confidence. And Arroyo delivered a gem.

A team to avoid who doesn't quite have that rep yet is Cleveland. Leading MLB in team OPS and homers. They have a lot of hitters who wear pitchers down, grind out ABs, and see a lot of pitches.

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My new bottom 5 for reason of exploitation is:

1. Miami

2. Cubs

3. Mets

4. Mariners

5. Phillies

Nats are due for some stat corrections as everyone gets back healthy. They are going to go on a scoring barrage. Houston has graduated out of the top 5. If Brett "windmill" Wallace comes back they will rejoin the distinct top 5 again. I will still start most guys with confidence vs. them. There lineup is a bunch of hacks, but they do run into a longball every now and again.

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Cubs are 3rd in OPS and 6th in runs when playing at home. That may change as the season progresses, but right now they're not an obvious club to exploit when they're in Wrigley.

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My new bottom 5 for reason of exploitation is:

1. Miami

2. Cubs

3. Mets

4. Mariners

5. Phillies

Nats are due for some stat corrections as everyone gets back healthy. They are going to go on a scoring barrage. Houston has graduated out of the top 5. If Brett "windmill" Wallace comes back they will rejoin the distinct top 5 again. I will still start most guys with confidence vs. them. There lineup is a bunch of hacks, but they do run into a longball every now and again.

That's about what I'd have. Maybe put the Mets at #2 over the Cubs. It's close though.

Just really look at the Mets' lineup:

Murphy: Solid hitter without a lot of power. Second best hitter in the lineup.

Ankiel: On a hot streak, but is really awful. Tons of holes in his swing, struck out too much even for the Astros.

Wright: Very good, established hitter. Nothing you can say negative about Wright

Duda: OBP guy with power, but tons of holes and areas of the zone where he can be exploited.

Byrd: Veteran with sub .300 OBP. Should be a 4th outfielder.

Davis: The worst hitter in MLB right now. His K's should be accompanied by Yakety Sax in the background they're so hilarious.

Buck: Has come crashing down after a hot start. He Ks a ton and never walks.

Tejeda: Sub .600 OPS punch and judy.

That's a really bad lineup. They're pushing for that #2 spot. Here's 'Yakety Sax', the song that should accompany all Ike Davis Ks and fielding miscues.

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Nats are due for some stat corrections as everyone gets back healthy. They are going to go on a scoring barrage.

Getting back Werth would help, but I would look more at LaRoche and Espinosa as part of the problem...

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