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J.T. Marlin

Le'Veon Bell 2013 Season Outlook

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I was not too impressed when I saw him play at MI State but the Steelers saw enough to take him in rd 2 as the 2nd overall RB selected over more highly touted guys like Lacy & Ball. Bell's a bruiser that can run thru defenders and he has some elusiveness but he seemed to be running in slow motion at times.

Regardless, PIT needed to address their RB situation and they drafted Bell early. I can't see him not beating out Dwyer (if he's still with the team come TC) or Redman for the starting RB job. Their o-line should be better with DeCastro back after missing his rookie year due to injury.

Maybe I'm underselling Bell's ability, anyone else watch him play and have high expectations for him on PIT?

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I agree that Bell's speed is underwhelming. But, the reason why PIT drafted Bell is because he's a thumper AND can pass protect, and can actually catch the ball (he showed really well on his pro day). Keeping Big Ben vertical with TE & RB's blocking is a major priority, given how their line protection continues to suffer.

Talent-wise, he's the #4 back in this class. But he's an awesome team fit. I look at him the way I look at Vick Ballard (who was very good at blocking, and better at catching balls than advertised - which is why he won the 3-down status in IND, despite the fact his skills aren't at all elite, other than running hard and decent vision). But, Bell is much more talented than Ballard, that's for sure. If Bell loses a step, he won't be a starting RB on a contender, because his start-up speed is his main weakness.

As much as it pains me to say this, for redraft leagues, I'd put him #2 in the rookies, behind Gio & ahead of Ball, and yes, ahead of the Lacy/Franklin ugliness in GB. For dynasty leagues, I still think he's the #3 RB (have to upgrade him because of his landing spot). I think of all the RB's drafted in good spots, along with Ball, he has the biggest risk with injury due to a lack of speed (it's one thing to be a little slow, but if you lose even more speed, then you can't even get your momentum going to be a north-south tank). But that's talking long-term, 3+ years down the line if he gets worked like a tank. For now, you have to like his opportunity for goal-line touches, being the workhorse, and even being there on 3rd down for protection and safety valve plays, and for RB nowadays, that's huge.

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Okay, first, the requisite highlight videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8i679lJPkc

Going solely off of watching those, the standout things for me about his running style:

#1: He does NOT have breakaway speed. Heck, with a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, I think it's safe to say that "speed" is not anywhere in the list of Bell's top traits.

#2: He makes quick cuts. The majority of the runs that I saw him break in the above highlight video usually featured him juking a defender with a quick move just before they made contact.

#3: Obviously he runs with physicality, but it's almost like he uses his size more often to be impossible to bring down as he just powers along and defenders grab him and simply hang on. It doesn't seem like he uses his size as often to actually run OVER the defenders.

I've seen some reports stating he was in the 240-244 range as far as weight during college. Seems he dropped about 10 pounds (down to ~230) by the NFL Combine. Without that added weight, I'm not sure he'll successfully replicate doing #3 at the NFL level. Simply, I could see a 245lb guy being a lot more difficult for NFL-level athletes to tackle with a glancing blow compared to a 230lb guy.

Overall, a little disappointed now that I've watched his highlights. Does absolutely nothing to slide up my draft board for fantasy. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th round pick at earliest, unless you're in a TD-heavy league (maaaaaybe). Or unless you're desperate for a RB and all the other ones are gone. The only thing he seems to have going for him for fantasy really is "looks like he might be a 3-down back". That's really it.

This is the kind of running back I'd figure the Titans would draft instead of signing Shonn freaking Greene, with the only purpose being a goal-line only back behind Chris Johnson. Not an ideal 3-down back.

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I can't see him not beating out Dwyer (if he's still with the team come TC) or Redman for the starting RB job.

They clearly drafted him to start, but that doesn't mean he'll absolutely win the job. 2nd round RBs are frequently NFL busts. This is worth keeping a close eye on in camp. I'd definitely snag the #2 if I were to draft Bell this year. It won't cost much and could bail you out. From the reports, Dwyer is highly motivated and dedicated to Pit. This is also indicated by his immediate signing of his RFA tender.

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I think he can put up Mendy 2009/2010 numbers. I like his fantasy situation but I don't like his backups if he were to get hurt.

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Okay, first, the requisite highlight videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8i679lJPkc

Going solely off of watching those, the standout things for me about his running style:

#1: He does NOT have breakaway speed. Heck, with a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, I think it's safe to say that "speed" is not anywhere in the list of Bell's top traits.

#2: He makes quick cuts. The majority of the runs that I saw him break in the above highlight video usually featured him juking a defender with a quick move just before they made contact.

#3: Obviously he runs with physicality, but it's almost like he uses his size more often to be impossible to bring down as he just powers along and defenders grab him and simply hang on. It doesn't seem like he uses his size as often to actually run OVER the defenders.

I've seen some reports stating he was in the 240-244 range as far as weight during college. Seems he dropped about 10 pounds (down to ~230) by the NFL Combine. Without that added weight, I'm not sure he'll successfully replicate doing #3 at the NFL level. Simply, I could see a 245lb guy being a lot more difficult for NFL-level athletes to tackle with a glancing blow compared to a 230lb guy.

Overall, a little disappointed now that I've watched his highlights. Does absolutely nothing to slide up my draft board for fantasy. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th round pick at earliest, unless you're in a TD-heavy league (maaaaaybe). Or unless you're desperate for a RB and all the other ones are gone. The only thing he seems to have going for him for fantasy really is "looks like he might be a 3-down back". That's really it.

This is the kind of running back I'd figure the Titans would draft instead of signing Shonn freaking Greene, with the only purpose being a goal-line only back behind Chris Johnson. Not an ideal 3-down back.

Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

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Okay, first, the requisite highlight videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8i679lJPkc

Going solely off of watching those, the standout things for me about his running style:

#1: He does NOT have breakaway speed. Heck, with a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, I think it's safe to say that "speed" is not anywhere in the list of Bell's top traits.

#2: He makes quick cuts. The majority of the runs that I saw him break in the above highlight video usually featured him juking a defender with a quick move just before they made contact.

#3: Obviously he runs with physicality, but it's almost like he uses his size more often to be impossible to bring down as he just powers along and defenders grab him and simply hang on. It doesn't seem like he uses his size as often to actually run OVER the defenders.

I've seen some reports stating he was in the 240-244 range as far as weight during college. Seems he dropped about 10 pounds (down to ~230) by the NFL Combine. Without that added weight, I'm not sure he'll successfully replicate doing #3 at the NFL level. Simply, I could see a 245lb guy being a lot more difficult for NFL-level athletes to tackle with a glancing blow compared to a 230lb guy.

Overall, a little disappointed now that I've watched his highlights. Does absolutely nothing to slide up my draft board for fantasy. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th round pick at earliest, unless you're in a TD-heavy league (maaaaaybe). Or unless you're desperate for a RB and all the other ones are gone. The only thing he seems to have going for him for fantasy really is "looks like he might be a 3-down back". That's really it.

This is the kind of running back I'd figure the Titans would draft instead of signing Shonn freaking Greene, with the only purpose being a goal-line only back behind Chris Johnson. Not an ideal 3-down back.

Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Alf also had the luxury of RGIII. Not convinced he puts up those similar numbers on most other teams, especially with his lack of pass-catching.

Alf had 335 carries versus just 11 receptions. I think his production on another team that doesn't have RGIII might look a lot closer to Benjarvus Green-Ellis territory.

Peyton Hillis' one good season was still just 1,177 rushing yards.

Mendenhall was 1,108, then 1,273.

I'd prefer to not rely on Bell at anything more than my RB2. I'd rather have him as maybe my first RB for depth (my backup RB2 essentially, for bye weeks and the like). For example, I actually had Tim Hightower in that role when he was the starting RB for the Redskins ('til he got injured). A consistent RB most weeks, but not a ton of upside.

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Okay, first, the requisite highlight videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8i679lJPkc

Going solely off of watching those, the standout things for me about his running style:

#1: He does NOT have breakaway speed. Heck, with a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, I think it's safe to say that "speed" is not anywhere in the list of Bell's top traits.

#2: He makes quick cuts. The majority of the runs that I saw him break in the above highlight video usually featured him juking a defender with a quick move just before they made contact.

#3: Obviously he runs with physicality, but it's almost like he uses his size more often to be impossible to bring down as he just powers along and defenders grab him and simply hang on. It doesn't seem like he uses his size as often to actually run OVER the defenders.

I've seen some reports stating he was in the 240-244 range as far as weight during college. Seems he dropped about 10 pounds (down to ~230) by the NFL Combine. Without that added weight, I'm not sure he'll successfully replicate doing #3 at the NFL level. Simply, I could see a 245lb guy being a lot more difficult for NFL-level athletes to tackle with a glancing blow compared to a 230lb guy.

Overall, a little disappointed now that I've watched his highlights. Does absolutely nothing to slide up my draft board for fantasy. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th round pick at earliest, unless you're in a TD-heavy league (maaaaaybe). Or unless you're desperate for a RB and all the other ones are gone. The only thing he seems to have going for him for fantasy really is "looks like he might be a 3-down back". That's really it.

This is the kind of running back I'd figure the Titans would draft instead of signing Shonn freaking Greene, with the only purpose being a goal-line only back behind Chris Johnson. Not an ideal 3-down back.

Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Alf also had the luxury of RGIII. Not convinced he puts up those similar numbers on most other teams, especially with his lack of pass-catching.

Alf had 335 carries versus just 11 receptions. I think his production on another team that doesn't have RGIII might look a lot closer to Benjarvus Green-Ellis territory.

Peyton Hillis' one good season was still just 1,177 rushing yards.

Mendenhall was 1,108, then 1,273.

I'd prefer to not rely on Bell at anything more than my RB2. I'd rather have him as maybe my first RB for depth (my backup RB2 essentially, for bye weeks and the like). For example, I actually had Tim Hightower in that role when he was the starting RB for the Redskins ('til he got injured). A consistent RB most weeks, but not a ton of upside.

Yeah, except Bell is supposed to have the complete package, with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

I won't reach for him, but I think he's in the best position of the rookie RB's to succeed out of the gate.

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Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Alf also had the luxury of RGIII. Not convinced he puts up those similar numbers on most other teams, especially with his lack of pass-catching.

Alf had 335 carries versus just 11 receptions. I think his production on another team that doesn't have RGIII might look a lot closer to Benjarvus Green-Ellis territory.

Peyton Hillis' one good season was still just 1,177 rushing yards.

Mendenhall was 1,108, then 1,273.

I'd prefer to not rely on Bell at anything more than my RB2. I'd rather have him as maybe my first RB for depth (my backup RB2 essentially, for bye weeks and the like). For example, I actually had Tim Hightower in that role when he was the starting RB for the Redskins ('til he got injured). A consistent RB most weeks, but not a ton of upside.

Yeah, except Bell is supposed to have the complete package, with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

I won't reach for him, but I think he's in the best position of the rookie RB's to succeed out of the gate.

Peyton Hillis actually caught 61 passes for 477 receiving yards his big year.

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Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Alf also had the luxury of RGIII. Not convinced he puts up those similar numbers on most other teams, especially with his lack of pass-catching.

Alf had 335 carries versus just 11 receptions. I think his production on another team that doesn't have RGIII might look a lot closer to Benjarvus Green-Ellis territory.

Peyton Hillis' one good season was still just 1,177 rushing yards.

Mendenhall was 1,108, then 1,273.

I'd prefer to not rely on Bell at anything more than my RB2. I'd rather have him as maybe my first RB for depth (my backup RB2 essentially, for bye weeks and the like). For example, I actually had Tim Hightower in that role when he was the starting RB for the Redskins ('til he got injured). A consistent RB most weeks, but not a ton of upside.

Yeah, except Bell is supposed to have the complete package, with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

I won't reach for him, but I think he's in the best position of the rookie RB's to succeed out of the gate.

Peyton Hillis actually caught 61 passes for 477 receiving yards his big year.

I was still talking about Alf.

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Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Alf also had the luxury of RGIII. Not convinced he puts up those similar numbers on most other teams, especially with his lack of pass-catching.

Alf had 335 carries versus just 11 receptions. I think his production on another team that doesn't have RGIII might look a lot closer to Benjarvus Green-Ellis territory.

Peyton Hillis' one good season was still just 1,177 rushing yards.

Mendenhall was 1,108, then 1,273.

I'd prefer to not rely on Bell at anything more than my RB2. I'd rather have him as maybe my first RB for depth (my backup RB2 essentially, for bye weeks and the like). For example, I actually had Tim Hightower in that role when he was the starting RB for the Redskins ('til he got injured). A consistent RB most weeks, but not a ton of upside.

Yeah, except Bell is supposed to have the complete package, with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

I won't reach for him, but I think he's in the best position of the rookie RB's to succeed out of the gate.

Peyton Hillis actually caught 61 passes for 477 receiving yards his big year.

I was still talking about Alf.

I think my point was fairly clear: it's all about the combined yards.

Alfred Morris: 1,613 rushing + 77 receiving = 1,690 combined yards

Peyton Hillis: 1,177 rushing + 477 receiving = 1,654 combined yards

Benjarvus GE: 1,094 rushing + 104 receiving = 1,198 combined yards

Let's throw in two rookies from last year:

Doug Martin: 1,454 rushing + 472 receiving = 1,926 combined yards

Trent Richardson: 950 rushing + 367 receiving = 1,317 combined yards

Trent Richardson had 51 receptions last season. Martin had 49. Alfred Morris had 11. Benjarvus Green-Ellis had 22. Peyton Hillis had 61.

Do you expect Le'Veon Bell to catch ~50 or more passes next season?

That would put him in line for stats potentially similar to:

Doug Martin: 1,454 rushing + 472 receiving = 1,926 combined yards

Peyton Hillis: 1,177 rushing + 477 receiving = 1,654 combined yards

Trent Richardson: 950 rushing + 367 receiving = 1,317 combined yards (while playing injured / missing some games)

Or if you assume he's going to have a lower amount of receptions:

Alfred Morris: 1,613 rushing + 77 receiving = 1,690 combined yards

Benjarvus GE: 1,094 rushing + 104 receiving = 1,198 combined yards

Historically for the Steelers, how many receptions did Rashard Mendenhall have?

2008: 2

2009: 25

2010: 23

2011: 18

2012: 9

The numbers suggest that there's a good chance that Bell ends up with maybe 20-30 receptions, as opposed to him turning into Darren Sproles and having 50+.

Stat sources:

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonhillis/1980/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/benjarvusgreen-ellis/929/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/alfredmorris/2533457/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/trentrichardson/2533032/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/rashardmendenhall/939/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/dougmartin/2532899/profile

Alfred Morris honestly had something of an anomaly of a season. Instead of having a "combined yards" category, it's almost as if all of his stats ended up in one single category (rushing), with practically none in receiving. He barely had double-digit receptions. The last NFL RB that I can remember in recent times with that few receptions, but was even remotely worth starting was The Law Firm.

Please refresh my memory. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, I'm just saying I can't really remember an NFL RB that has put up that many rushing yards and gotten so few receptions / receiving yards.

And I attribute the reason for that anomaly to the presence of RGIII on that offense. A luxury that the Steelers do not have, which is why I wouldn't compare Le'Veon Bell's projected stats to the statistical performance that Alf managed last season.

Again, if you can think of another example of a RB rushing for 1,500+ rushing yards, but only managing ~100 receiving yards, I'd be interested to know the name of that player.

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Oh, and here are the stats for a guy (starting RB) who had 30 or less receptions each season:

2009: 108 carries, 540 rushing yards / 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards

2010: 185 carries, 766 rushing yards / 16 receptions, 120 receiving yards

2011: 253 carries, 1,054 rushing yards / 30 receptions, 211 receiving yards

2012: 276 carries, 1,063 rushing yards / 19 receptions, 151 receiving yards

Who was this awesome player?

Shonn Greene.

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Oh, and here are the stats for a guy (starting RB) who had 30 or less receptions each season:

2009: 108 carries, 540 rushing yards / 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards

2010: 185 carries, 766 rushing yards / 16 receptions, 120 receiving yards

2011: 253 carries, 1,054 rushing yards / 30 receptions, 211 receiving yards

2012: 276 carries, 1,063 rushing yards / 19 receptions, 151 receiving yards

Who was this awesome player?

Shonn Greene.

Yeah, who was a perfectly serviceable RB2 the past two seasons.

I'm not expecting Bell to be a RB1, just to be a decent RB2.

The RB crop is really top heavy this year.

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why do the steelers love slow, un-athletic RB's who don't even run north-south. They are actually terrible at drafting rb's but this just appears to be their style.

Anyway he's not any worse than vintage Mendenhall. He might not be a true bellcow his 1st season but he will get the lion's share of the carries and will therefore provide midround value. Crazy that I'm probably going to end up targeting him as a mid-RB after I despised him so much in college.

Such a terrible pick by the Steelers. Fantasy relevant right away now, however

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I really see Pittsburgh adding another RB like Bradshaw. I wouldn't take the risk on Bell.

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Not much action on Bell recently. Kind of funny. Don't hear much from the Packers about Lacy, the Steelers about Bell or the Bengals about Bernard...but there always seems to be something to say about Montee Ball :lol:

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Not much action on Bell recently. Kind of funny. Don't hear much from the Packers about Lacy, the Steelers about Bell or the Bengals about Bernard...but there always seems to be something to say about Montee Ball :lol:

Not true, Lacy getting a lot of good pub. Being compared to Steven Jackson (!)

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Le'veon Bell is actually pretty much a Rashard Mendenhall clone, after Mendy's first knee injury. With Mendy only getting 4 games in his rookie year before the knee issue, I think his 2009 season (242 rush, 1108 yard, 7td & 25 rec, 32 targets, 261yards, 1td) may prove to be a solid baseline for Bell's projection, maybe not quite as effective on the receiving yards (maybe closer to 180 yards on 25 catches instead).

I think you can conservatively give Bell a projection around 1050 rush yards, 150 receiving yards, 20 receptions, 7 tds as a low end if he's healthy and Dwyer doesn't earn a big share preseason. He's got upside of 1400 total yards, 25 catches and possibly double digit scores which would push for a Top 15 RB spot, but even that low end is a little less than something like a low end RB2 in 12-teamers; if he can top that by any amount I'm thinking he'll be around the 24th RB right now in both Standard/PPR -- puts him about late 4th round in 12-team standard, late 5th round in 12-team PPR

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Not much action on Bell recently. Kind of funny. Don't hear much from the Packers about Lacy, the Steelers about Bell or the Bengals about Bernard...but there always seems to be something to say about Montee Ball :lol:

Not true, Lacy getting a lot of good pub. Being compared to Steven Jackson (!)

Those thoughts have certainly been out there since before the draft but post draft I think Montee Ball's hype is way beyond. Both Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy have 8 Rotoworld blurbs since after the draft but most of Lacy's are to do with his toe or other reasons why teams avoided him.

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MikeF, what do you make of that?

I don't think Bell is going to be very good, personally. I'm avoiding.

I actually like Bell a fair bit. He's likely not ever going to be a stud RB1 but he can be a reliable RB2 at some point in the near future. I sort of wonder if just some teams are less interested in talking up their rookies than others.

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Seems like his blocking has become a concern in Pitt.

This is from the CBS fantasy site.

Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT

News: The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that even though rookie Le’Veon Bell might be the best running back on the Steelers, running backs coach Kirby Wilson said that if Bell can’t block, he can’t (and won’t) play.

Honestly, they really don't have anybody else who is even close to being a reliable starter-caliber back, so I'd imagine he still sees a good amount of early down work if his pass protection doesn't improve. Big Ben has been banged up a lot, though. Keeping him upright is a paramount concern.

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Okay, first, the requisite highlight videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8i679lJPkc

Going solely off of watching those, the standout things for me about his running style:

#1: He does NOT have breakaway speed. Heck, with a 4.6 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, I think it's safe to say that "speed" is not anywhere in the list of Bell's top traits.

#2: He makes quick cuts. The majority of the runs that I saw him break in the above highlight video usually featured him juking a defender with a quick move just before they made contact.

#3: Obviously he runs with physicality, but it's almost like he uses his size more often to be impossible to bring down as he just powers along and defenders grab him and simply hang on. It doesn't seem like he uses his size as often to actually run OVER the defenders.

I've seen some reports stating he was in the 240-244 range as far as weight during college. Seems he dropped about 10 pounds (down to ~230) by the NFL Combine. Without that added weight, I'm not sure he'll successfully replicate doing #3 at the NFL level. Simply, I could see a 245lb guy being a lot more difficult for NFL-level athletes to tackle with a glancing blow compared to a 230lb guy.

Overall, a little disappointed now that I've watched his highlights. Does absolutely nothing to slide up my draft board for fantasy. I think he'll be a 4th or 5th round pick at earliest, unless you're in a TD-heavy league (maaaaaybe). Or unless you're desperate for a RB and all the other ones are gone. The only thing he seems to have going for him for fantasy really is "looks like he might be a 3-down back". That's really it.

This is the kind of running back I'd figure the Titans would draft instead of signing Shonn freaking Greene, with the only purpose being a goal-line only back behind Chris Johnson. Not an ideal 3-down back.

Speed isn't everything for a RB. Alfred Morris ran a 4.67, looks pretty ordinary running the ball, but just had an amazing year.

From the highlight video he reminds me of Alf a bit (a bigger version), with the quick cuts and steady acceleration.

Roger that....I like Bell to be the clear #1 in Pitt by week 4 or 5, and a clear RB1 for the rest of the season. Great instincts, makes nice moves in tight spaces, and is well built to be a workhorse NFL back, which is what the Steelers drafted him to be.

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Reminds me of Demarco Murray.

Quick cuts but not great long speed, doesn't pick up the knees, falls forward, physical...

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