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dudeondacouch

Justin Blackmon 2013 Season Outlook

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ESPN reporting that Blackmon is suspended for the first four games of the upcoming 2013 season...

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He could end up being a steal if people put too much emphasis on this suspension. I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

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Oh. I thought this was just the other shoe dropping from a Diehlesk dui.

Value or no value he's got a problem.

Not sure I'd bother especially with Jorts on the roster and continued question marks all over the offense.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

What exactly have they done to lead you to believe that Gabbert is something other than "inept"?

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Unless someone has fears that he's going to fail more drug tests, I look at it the same way as I looked at having another OSU Cowboy stand-out that had off the field problems and a world of talent on the field. I didn't sell Dez low and I surely wouldn't sell Blackmon low if I had him. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we're viewing this guy as a top 15 WR at some point in the next year or two.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

What exactly have they done to lead you to believe that Gabbert is something other than "inept"?

While I can't comprehend why Gabbert is getting another opportunity, he certainly isn't immune to the inevitable benching. Hopefully, when Blackmon returns from suspension Gabbert will have one foot on the bench already (the latest talk from Jags staff actually indicated that he and Henne are on equal footing going into camp, so his starting job isn't official yet).

In the final 7 games of 2012, with Henne starting, Blackmon averaged about 12 standard points and just over 17 PPR points, including and explosive 236 yard performance versus Houston in Week 11. I've yet to lay eyes upon the WR who could put up big numbers with Gabbert, but what Blackmon did with a mediocre QB like Henne is impressive and encouraging.

Blackmon's re-draft value is limited due to Gabbert and the suspension, but if you can steal him on draft day, he could potentially be a nice contributor in the second half of the season. Taking a gamble on a guy with his ability could result in a huge payoff.

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Was looking at the Undrafted Rookie Free Agent signings, if any of you Dynasty Drafters want a flier QB, Jacksonville signed Jordan Rodgers from Vanderbilt, Aaron's baby brother. He's not nearly as talented as Aaron, but he did start in the SEC for a year and a half, which is saying something. Beginning midseason 2011 when he settled in as the starter, he's played 17 games and averaged 217 ypg, 8.3 ypa, 21 td, 11 int with another 5 rush td and 21 ypg (which includes Sacks in college).

He's not overwhelmingly good on paper, but you have to realize he played for the absolute worst team in easily the toughest conference in college football and still led Vandy to a 9-4 record, 5-3 in the SEC (that's amazing to me), and 7 straight wins to finish the season (including a Bowl victory). They got waxed at Georgia, but were within 14 against a good Florida squad, 10 at Northwestern and 4 vs a tough South Carolina team (before Lattimore got hurt) -- the Rodgers boys can win football games.

Not guaranteeing a return on your investment, but if you have a deep dynasty league, I'd give him give him a red shirt year to see what's gonna on down in Florida in 2014.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

Please read my previous post. Blackmon was actually pretty darn productive with Henne under center last season.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

Please read my previous post. Blackmon was actually pretty darn productive with Henne under center last season.

Yes week 11 on he was pretty solid with the exception of one game.

That was even with Shorts having some big games in there as well.

After this screw up he'll be going after round 10 for sure. I'd strongly consider taking him there and stashing.

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I see him taking a big step forward, as long as the Jags QB play isn't completely inept.

Well that's the rub isn't it? Every other attocious QBing team attempted something to correct their deficiency except the one with the worst QB situation of all.

blaine gabbert is bashed by the media including rotoworld because he plays for the least marketable team in the nfl, a team that went 2-14. he doesnt deserve all of the blame, he was a 22 year old qb (youngest starter in the nfl) that was running for his life all season. interesting stat if you havent seen it yet: gabbert was 13th highest rated passer when given 2.6 seconds or more to throw the ball. luke joeckel should help the line quite a bit. this isnt me saying to draft blaine gabbert or saying that he'll even be a top 13 qb this season but with better protection and more experience gabbert should play well enough for his wr's to be very productive in fantasy football so i personally wouldnt worry about blackmon as long as he stays out of jail

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im starting to think his suspension will help me steal him as a 4th wr because nobody will want a jaguars wr that is suspended for 4 games. when he does play he will be very productive in his 2nd season as long as he stays out of trouble

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this is ESPN's assesment -

"We questioned Blackmon as the No. 5 overall pick last year, and nothing we saw in '12 makes us change that assessment. He did improve, especially when Chad Henne took over under center. But anyone expecting Blackmon to be a burner will be disappointed. He's good after the catch, but he was third in the NFL with 10 drops and more than a quarter of his yards came in one game. Worst of all, he'll be suspended for the first four games of '13 for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy. Cecil Shorts is the Jags WR to own this year."

ridiculous considering they have him ranked after Golden Tate, Santonio Holmes, Brian Harline, & Rueben Randle. this guy should be a huge steal if he can stay out of trouble during the season. his production even in 12 games should outproduce his ADP.

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From the derailed MJD thread...

I think it's helpful to have a way for thinking about how far down people should drop in your rankings if they are missing games.

From weeks 12 to 17, Blackmon averaged 9 ppg in standard ESPN scoring even with Henne under center. That's fine, but it's Lance Moore territory, not WR1 territory.

It's an interesting approach, but I think it's best reversed to estimate true value.

Whereas you're comparing rounds dropped, for games missed, the question I would propose to you is, in what round would you "value" (not draft, but realistically agree it makes sense) Justin Blackmon if he was not missing any games? I'm trying to answer this myself right now, and I think I'd place him around... the 7th to 8th round. Based on ADPs right now, this makes him a WR4 and places him with names like... DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, T.Y. Hilton.

All of which I think actually fall into that... "who knows what they do this year, but they all have talent and the potential to be a solid WR2" and I think that's right where I put Blackmon.

ADP has Blackmon currently going 10.09, so 10-11th round. I think a 4 Game suspension and a 3 round drop makes sense. In all reality, he's no different than any other lotto ticket, because it's going to take 2-4 weeks to even find one, yet alone prove they can repeat the game/week that made them worth the pickup.

On the 2nd part... if you want to remove outliers, that's fine, but you don't get to only remove his high, and leave his low. If we exclude his highest game, we also need to exclude his lowest, and in doing so, his standard scoring average per game becomes exactly 11.0. This ranks him 13th in standard scoring. Keep in mind though, that 3 of the names ahead of him are Crabtree, Welker and Decker. 3 of which I don't think we can realistically expect to remain WR1 PPG in 2013.

Clearly more valuable in PPR leagues, but still a solid roster stash for any league. His Red Zone usage is probably the most promising stat, but with MoJo back in 2013 it means stacked boxes every play, every game, every week. Upgraded O-Line, 2nd year WR, and no where to go but up.

I think he's a smart stash in the 9-10th round, as a wait and see type of guy. If you need the Roster spot before his 4 weeks are up, then I have no issues dumping him. Drafting him, doesn't mean you're married to him.

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Somewhere Justin Blackmon is drunk on Patron and L-ing his AO at all of you. Probably driving too.

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I still think the way I initially did it is more accurate. Since the question is, in fact, how far should I drop Blackmon in my rankings due to his injury? But anyways, it's going to be subjective for each person, so maybe you would only drop DJax 2 or 3 rounds too.

Moreover I disagree that you should drop his low as well as his high in that set of games. One is clearly an outlier, as it's the 38th best game in NFL history. The other isn't even his worst game of the season, not exactly an outlier.

I also don't like dropping games in the middle of series, not to mention you've already dropping all his bad games from before his monster game. So doing it your way, you end up dropping 9 bad games, and only 2 good games (one of which was admittedly a very very good game). I'm sure he'd rank a lot lower than 13th if you did the same for every other WR - comparing just everybody's 7 best games, with the best and 7th best games then excluded. I get that there was a change for why you think it was fair to exclude so many of his bad games, but a lot of other players had changes too, so you need to be consistent in your methodology if you want to make comparisons across players (e.g. say he's 13th best).

Anyways, my simple thought was this: If you are somebody was wowed by his monster game last year, and then put him in their lineup for all of his remaining games because of it - how many points per game would they have gotten in standard ESPN scoring? 9 points per game is the correct answer to that question. Maybe you're asking a different question, which is fine, but that's the question I'm interested in myself.

I agree that I would probably stash him in PPR, I don't play PPR and didn't realize how good he was in it until I saw your numbers, but in normal I'm still not swayed.

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From the derailed MJD thread...

I think it's helpful to have a way for thinking about how far down people should drop in your rankings if they are missing games.

From weeks 12 to 17, Blackmon averaged 9 ppg in standard ESPN scoring even with Henne under center. That's fine, but it's Lance Moore territory, not WR1 territory.

It's an interesting approach, but I think it's best reversed to estimate true value.

Whereas you're comparing rounds dropped, for games missed, the question I would propose to you is, in what round would you "value" (not draft, but realistically agree it makes sense) Justin Blackmon if he was not missing any games? I'm trying to answer this myself right now, and I think I'd place him around... the 7th to 8th round. Based on ADPs right now, this makes him a WR4 and places him with names like... DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, T.Y. Hilton.

All of which I think actually fall into that... "who knows what they do this year, but they all have talent and the potential to be a solid WR2" and I think that's right where I put Blackmon.

I think 10-11 is the right place to draft him, I wouldn't want to draft him higher even without the suspension just because the QB and as that other guy pointed out, aside from that one game he still wasn't great with Henne. I think Hilton, Austin, and Jackson have a higher ceiling because of their QB/offenses.

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Oh and I just wanted to explain why I dislike him being gone 4 weeks so much.

Let's look at the 7th-8th round WR from last year:

Reggie Wayne - great draft pick

Pierre Garcon - pretty good when healthy

Kenny Britt - Terrible

Titus Young - Terrible

Anquan Boldin - not very good, not as bad as the others, but not good enough to start regularly

Justin Blackmon - Terrible for half season, and then fine (but he was already dropped in most 10-12 team leagues by time he turned it around)

Malcom Floyd - Bad

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Terrible

Lance Moore - Pretty decent actually

So out of those 9 WR, 1 was a stud, 1 solid low end WR2/WR3, 1 that turned it around only after he was already dropped, and 1 that was fine but always hurt.

Most of the players just weren't good enough to be confident starting them on a week to week basis, and only one of them was really anything special, which shouldn't surprise anybody as they were 7th and 8th round picks. But anyways, since chances are that these players aren't going to turn out, I don't want to commit myself to them for super long. Optimally, I'd like to hold one, and if over the first 5 weeks if they look fine then keep them, but if they are terrible (e.g. Britt last year), then I know I can drop them for another lottery ticket. If you give Blackmon 5 weeks of production before deciding what to do with him then you're committing to 9 weeks of him. Some people seem convinced Blackmon is going to be Reggie Wayne, in which case obviously you grab and hold him, but if you're a skeptic like myself and are expecting something closer to Malcom Floyd - then him being gone for so long really does hurt.

I'd just much rather draft a Daniel Thomas type guy over him, where although Thomas is less likely to work out, I'll pretty much know by week 1. Or Denarius Moore, where after week 3 you'll have a decent idea of how good Flynn is and if Moore is his guy. I could probably cycle through 4 or 5 lottery tickets by the time you have an idea whether Blackmon is good or not, so I guess what I'm saying is I don't think Blackmon is 4 times more likely than Moore to be good, so I'm not going to draft Blackmon.

There's plenty of these guys like Moore and Thomas in the draft, where they aren't likely to pay off, but the payoff is good if they do. More importantly, you'll learn fairly quickly what you have, so you'll be able to move on to the next guy a lot faster. The more lottery tickets you go through, the bigger your chance to get a winner. Obviously the chance of each lottery ticket paying off matters too, and I think that's where I differ with the Blackmon supporters. If you're confident Blackmon is a WR2 then obviously draft and hold him, I'm just not at all confident in that. I view Blackmon as a lottery ticket, but one that I'll have to hold for a very long time before I'll know if I won or lost.

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I truly don't get why people don't understand that rookie WR's usuaully struggle or that they most likely don't dominate in their rookie seasons. So lets take a look at Blackmon's ROOKIE year stats vs todays star WR's ROOKIE seasons:

Blackmon - 64/865/5

Megatron - 48/756/4

Fitzgerald - 58/780/8

Marshall - 20/309/2

Dez - 45/561/6

Andre - 66/976/4

DT - 32/551/4 (11 games, 2nd season)

Roddy - 29/446/3

Harvin - 60/790/6

Green - 65/1057/7

Julio - 54/959/8

So lets see Blackmon had more receptions than 9 of the 10. Blackmon had more yards than 7 of the 10. Blackmon had more TD's than 5 of the 10.

Blackmon beat Megatron in all 3 categories. He is talented.

More often than not there is a huge jump in in stats from rookie season to 2nd season when it comes to WR's. Just look at Cecil Shorts.

I'm truly not doing this because I'm a jaguars fan I don't consider myself biased, I consider myself realistic. I'll be the first one to tell you that I more than likely won't be drafting MJD this year but passing on Justin Blackmon in the 10th round will more than likely be a regret if he stays out of trouble.

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Not at all fair comparisons. Very dishonest really. You're comparing him to guys who weren't drafted to be their teams WR1 and guys who got hurt and what not.

Plus I bet these numbers would look a lot different if you took away everybody's best game, not that that's completely fair - but again it's a bad thing not a good thing that more than 1/4th of Blackmon's yards came in a single game. I'd like him a lot more if he had the same end of season numbers, but was more consistently good.

I truly don't get why people don't understand that rookie WR's usuaully struggle or that they most likely don't dominate in their rookie seasons. So lets take a look at Blackmon's ROOKIE year stats vs todays star WR's ROOKIE seasons:

Blackmon - 64/865/5 - Started 14 games. Same horrible QB this year as last year.

Megatron - 48/756/4 - only started 10 games

Fitzgerald - 58/780/8 - QB was Josh McCown, next year it was Kurt Warner. If Blackmon got a QB like Warner I'd be all over him.

Marshall - 20/309/2 - only started 1 game

Dez - 45/561/6 - only started 2 games

Andre - 66/976/4 - Fairish comparison, but you're going back to a time when the game was different. There were only 2 QBs with more than 4,000 passing yards in 2003, compared to 11 QBs with more than 4,000 passing yards last year.

DT - 32/551/4 (11 games, 2nd season) - Only started 5 games. His QB was Tebow, now it's Peyton Manning. If Blackmon had Peyton Manning as a QB I'd draft Blackmon in the 4th round.

Roddy - 29/446/3 - Only started 8 games

Harvin - 60/790/6 - Only started 8 games

Green - 65/1057/7 - Did better than Blackmon, and was consistently good all year - not just 1 monster game. Also a rookie QB, so people were hoping for improvement from both him and his QB

Julio - 54/959/8 - Did better than Blackmon, despite competing with Roddy White for targets. Consistently good all year, despite dealing with injuries, and much better QB too.

So lets see Blackmon had more receptions than 9 of the 10. Blackmon had more yards than 7 of the 10. Blackmon had more TD's than 5 of the 10.

Blackmon beat Megatron in all 3 categories. He is talented.

More often than not there is a huge jump in in stats from rookie season to 2nd season when it comes to WR's. Just look at Cecil Shorts.

I'm truly not doing this because I'm a jaguars fan I don't consider myself biased, I consider myself realistic. I'll be the first one to tell you that I more than likely won't be drafting MJD this year but passing on Justin Blackmon in the 10th round will more than likely be a regret if he stays out of trouble.

Although you should draft MJD. I've never understood why MJD doesn't get the respect he deserves from Jags fans.

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Not at all fair comparisons. Very dishonest really. You're comparing him to guys who weren't drafted to be their teams WR1 and guys who got hurt and what not.

Plus I bet these numbers would look a lot different if you took away everybody's best game, not that that's completely fair

Are you kidding me? Check out where some of those guys were drafted. They weren't all top ten (though many of them were) but virtually that entire list had very lofty expectations heading into the NFL.

Don't pretend as if Calvin, Larry, Dez, Green, Julio, Harvin, Andre, DT, etc. were just random run of the mill first year players. Lots of people expected just about every guy on that list to be a very good to great NFL WR. If anyone is being dishonest here, it's you.

And yeah, I agree that it is not fair AT ALL to drop a guy's best game (unless you're also dropping his worst), but I don't see why you're so hung up on that one monster game. Of course it skewed his stats, but it was against a very good defense. It's not like he was playing against a Pop Warner team and took advantage of them. He is a very skilled player and that skill came through in that Houston game. If anything, that game should be a testament to what Blackmon can do and not a case against owning him.

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