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dewaser

2013 Busts Thread

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Let's make it an over/under valued thread instead. Here's some of my opinions based on early ADPs.

Overvalued:

Dez

Kaepernick

Dwayne Bowe (he needs Cassel)

Amendola (how did Lloyd and Ochocinco turn out?)

Gronk (we don't know enough to be drafting him in the 3rd round or before Hernandez)

Witten

Undervalued:

Andre Johnson

Tom Brady (he's fallen a bit too far)

Daryl Richardson

BJGE

McGahee/Moreno (whoever wins it will be solid, draft them both and end up with a steal if it isn't cleared up by draft time)

Nicks (although he's discounted for injury concerns likely)

Wallace

Torrey Smith (thought he was overvalued last year, but Boldin's gone now)

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Let's make it an over/under valued thread instead. Here's some of my opinions based on early ADPs.

Overvalued:

Dez

Kaepernick

Dwayne Bowe (he needs Cassel)

Amendola (how did Lloyd and Ochocinco turn out?)

Gronk (we don't know enough to be drafting him in the 3rd round or before Hernandez)

Witten

Undervalued:

Andre Johnson

Tom Brady (he's fallen a bit too far)

Daryl Richardson

BJGE

McGahee/Moreno (whoever wins it will be solid, draft them both and end up with a steal if it isn't cleared up by draft time)

Nicks (although he's discounted for injury concerns likely)

Wallace

Torrey Smith (thought he was overvalued last year, but Boldin's gone now)

agree on most but obviously dez. i gotta say though hernandez before gronk? come on now. we know enough

also i think BGE will be overvalued if anything

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I think Welker being gone helps Hernandez more than Gronk, but really it's all because Gronks injury still scares me. Until I know for sure he'll be good to go at the start of next season I won't feel comfortable drafting Gronk near his ADP. I know Gronk is a huge steal if he ends up being healthy, but I've just had bad experiences with injuries being worse than people think they are be so I want to avoid that for now. I'd rather take Andre, Roddy, or Brady over still-hurt Gronk. To be clear I wasn't suggesting to anybody to take Hernandez higher than he's currently going, I think his ADP is about right.

I think BJGE is the same player he always was, put up the same 4 YPC and 1,000 yards. Basically he was exactly what the Bengals should have been expecting so I think he keeps his job next year. He's not flashy, but I'll take take 1,000 yards and 6+ TDs in the 6th round no problem.

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I think Welker being gone helps Hernandez more than Gronk, but really it's all because Gronks injury still scares me. Until I know for sure he'll be good to go at the start of next season I won't feel comfortable drafting Gronk near his ADP. I know Gronk is a huge steal if he ends up being healthy, but I've just had bad experiences with injuries being worse than people think they are be so I want to avoid that for now. I'd rather take Andre, Roddy, or Brady over still-hurt Gronk. To be clear I wasn't suggesting to anybody to take Hernandez higher than he's currently going, I think his ADP is about right.

I think BJGE is the same player he always was, put up the same 4 YPC and 1,000 yards. Basically he was exactly what the Bengals should have been expecting so I think he keeps his job next year. He's not flashy, but I'll take take 1,000 yards and 6+ TDs in the 6th round no problem.

BGE might keep his STARTING job yes but is easily headed into at least a time share with Bernard. Bernard will get 10-12 carries per game and play on passing situations

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Let's make it an over/under valued thread instead. Here's some of my opinions based on early ADPs.

Overvalued:

Dez

Kaepernick

Dwayne Bowe (he needs Cassel)

Amendola (how did Lloyd and Ochocinco turn out?)

Gronk (we don't know enough to be drafting him in the 3rd round or before Hernandez)

Witten

Undervalued:

Andre Johnson

Tom Brady (he's fallen a bit too far)

Daryl Richardson

BJGE

McGahee/Moreno (whoever wins it will be solid, draft them both and end up with a steal if it isn't cleared up by draft time)

Nicks (although he's discounted for injury concerns likely)

Wallace

Torrey Smith (thought he was overvalued last year, but Boldin's gone now)

I honestly dont see how CK7 is overvalued. His ADP is around Round 4 (around Matt Ryan's ADP last season). He had MONSTER games against tough defenses in the playoffs and realistically only had Crabtree to throw to (Davis didn't show up til playoffs and Moss who?). Factor in that he averaged 250+ passing yards, can run for 50 yards/game, and with the addition of Boldin you're looking at at least 16+ points on Sunday. I say his ADP is pretty sound.

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Let's make it an over/under valued thread instead. Here's some of my opinions based on early ADPs.

Overvalued:

Dez

Kaepernick

Dwayne Bowe (he needs Cassel)

Amendola (how did Lloyd and Ochocinco turn out?)

Gronk (we don't know enough to be drafting him in the 3rd round or before Hernandez)

Witten

Undervalued:

Andre Johnson

Tom Brady (he's fallen a bit too far)

Daryl Richardson

BJGE

McGahee/Moreno (whoever wins it will be solid, draft them both and end up with a steal if it isn't cleared up by draft time)

Nicks (although he's discounted for injury concerns likely)

Wallace

Torrey Smith (thought he was overvalued last year, but Boldin's gone now)

Let's not. Let's keep this as a overvalued or bust thread and if there needs to be an undervalued (of which at least 3 already exist) then we can cross that bridge if need be.

Also, there is already a value thread which should cover the undervalued portion.

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=332995&hl=value

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I'm looking at an ADP right now and I can't say these guys will be busts, but they scare me where they are:

1.03 Martin - guy averaged 4 ypc in 15 games not against Oakland. Looks like an avg RB with an elite workload. Not a huge bust, but maybe a RB10 finish for RB3 price.

1.04 Rice - I like Rice, but that workload and super bowl hangover might catch up to him. Suspect a similar drop like Martin - RB10ish.

1.10 McCoy - we don't know how the new coach will use him or how the offense is going to click. Could be RBBC for all we know.

2.09 Thomas - I really like Demaryius, but WR6 is too rich for my blood. His targets will drop with Welker and Manning's arm isn't getting stronger.

2.11 Ridley - I think both Blount and Vereen are talented players that will find a way on the field at his expense.

2.12 MJD - it's amazing what he's done on a terrible team, but lisfranc is a serious injury and his team is so bad.

3.01 Murray - glorified 3rd down back. He's a good player, but he's not a workhorse. His poor performance on 1st and 2nd down will not be aided by a bad offensive line.

3.02 Harvin - WR7 for a guy on the team with the least passing attempts in the NFL last year. Love his talent, not his situation.

3.08 Wilson - he could be a star, but I feel really shaky about him. Only like 70 carries and he's going in the 3rd.

4.01 Cobb - WR11 is possible, but not probable. Rodgers spreads the ball around too much. When Jennings was healthy for 16 games he did well to see 120 targets. Cobb got 112 last year and finished WR17. I expect similar stats this year, so not a huge bust.

5.05 Miller - getting to the point where busts don't matter, but he's a 4th round pick with only like 50 carries and someone will be drafting him as their RB2. High risk/high reward -> high potential for bust.

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While some people are saying that Greg Jennings will be a bust, I actually like his value this year. He put up perennial top numbers with the packers before his injuries last year. I think that he'll be ponders top guy and I also think that a 1100 yard 9 td season is very attainable

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I'm looking at an ADP right now and I can't say these guys will be busts, but they scare me where they are:

1.03 Martin - guy averaged 4 ypc in 15 games not against Oakland. Looks like an avg RB with an elite workload. Not a huge bust, but maybe a RB10 finish for RB3 price.

1.04 Rice - I like Rice, but that workload and super bowl hangover might catch up to him. Suspect a similar drop like Martin - RB10ish.

1.10 McCoy - we don't know how the new coach will use him or how the offense is going to click. Could be RBBC for all we know.

2.09 Thomas - I really like Demaryius, but WR6 is too rich for my blood. His targets will drop with Welker and Manning's arm isn't getting stronger.

2.11 Ridley - I think both Blount and Vereen are talented players that will find a way on the field at his expense.

2.12 MJD - it's amazing what he's done on a terrible team, but lisfranc is a serious injury and his team is so bad.

3.01 Murray - glorified 3rd down back. He's a good player, but he's not a workhorse. His poor performance on 1st and 2nd down will not be aided by a bad offensive line.

3.02 Harvin - WR7 for a guy on the team with the least passing attempts in the NFL last year. Love his talent, not his situation.

3.08 Wilson - he could be a star, but I feel really shaky about him. Only like 70 carries and he's going in the 3rd.

4.01 Cobb - WR11 is possible, but not probable. Rodgers spreads the ball around too much. When Jennings was healthy for 16 games he did well to see 120 targets. Cobb got 112 last year and finished WR17. I expect similar stats this year, so not a huge bust.

5.05 Miller - getting to the point where busts don't matter, but he's a 4th round pick with only like 50 carries and someone will be drafting him as their RB2. High risk/high reward -> high potential for bust.

doug martin averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a ROOKIE so he has room for improvement. also you can't just say to forget about the oakland game because it actually happened and it wasn't as if oakland ranked 32nd in rushing defense they actually ranked 18th. also doug martin will be getting 2 very good guards back from injury to solidify his already pretty good offensive line. the sky is the limit for this guy in 2013. i could honestly see him finishing #1.

also i believe you'll be wrong about randall cobb. he's actually starting at WR this year which believe it or not he didn't do last year (only started 8 games). he's aaron rodger's favorite target and greg jennings is gone which means they are more targets to go around. this guy is also young and still learning and getting better every year just as doug martin is doing, and more than likely will actually be focusing on WR duties instead of playing special teams

harvin you can make the argument that even though they threw the least amount of passes last year it was with a rookie qb and minnesota wasn't far behind on pass attempts. i bet they allow wilson to throw the ball more especially with a wr like harvin on the field

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I'm looking at an ADP right now and I can't say these guys will be busts, but they scare me where they are:

1.03 Martin - guy averaged 4 ypc in 15 games not against Oakland. Looks like an avg RB with an elite workload. Not a huge bust, but maybe a RB10 finish for RB3 price.

1.04 Rice - I like Rice, but that workload and super bowl hangover might catch up to him. Suspect a similar drop like Martin - RB10ish.

1.10 McCoy - we don't know how the new coach will use him or how the offense is going to click. Could be RBBC for all we know.

2.09 Thomas - I really like Demaryius, but WR6 is too rich for my blood. His targets will drop with Welker and Manning's arm isn't getting stronger.

2.11 Ridley - I think both Blount and Vereen are talented players that will find a way on the field at his expense.

2.12 MJD - it's amazing what he's done on a terrible team, but lisfranc is a serious injury and his team is so bad.

3.01 Murray - glorified 3rd down back. He's a good player, but he's not a workhorse. His poor performance on 1st and 2nd down will not be aided by a bad offensive line.

3.02 Harvin - WR7 for a guy on the team with the least passing attempts in the NFL last year. Love his talent, not his situation.

3.08 Wilson - he could be a star, but I feel really shaky about him. Only like 70 carries and he's going in the 3rd.

4.01 Cobb - WR11 is possible, but not probable. Rodgers spreads the ball around too much. When Jennings was healthy for 16 games he did well to see 120 targets. Cobb got 112 last year and finished WR17. I expect similar stats this year, so not a huge bust.

5.05 Miller - getting to the point where busts don't matter, but he's a 4th round pick with only like 50 carries and someone will be drafting him as their RB2. High risk/high reward -> high potential for bust.

doug martin averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a ROOKIE so he has room for improvement. also you can't just say to forget about the oakland game because it actually happened and it wasn't as if oakland ranked 32nd in rushing defense they actually ranked 18th. also doug martin will be getting 2 very good guards back from injury to solidify his already pretty good offensive line. the sky is the limit for this guy in 2013. i could honestly see him finishing #1.

also i believe you'll be wrong about randall cobb. he's actually starting at WR this year which believe it or not he didn't do last year (only started 8 games). he's aaron rodger's favorite target and greg jennings is gone which means they are more targets to go around. this guy is also young and still learning and getting better every year just as doug martin is doing, and more than likely will actually be focusing on WR duties instead of playing special teams

harvin you can make the argument that even though they threw the least amount of passes last year it was with a rookie qb and minnesota wasn't far behind on pass attempts. i bet they allow wilson to throw the ball more especially with a wr like harvin on the field

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know.

I wasn't saying to throw the Oakland game out, but thought it was important to put it in context. That one game bloated his averages like crazy. He doesn't appear to be a special talent, but people on fantasy football boards tend to get talent and situation (or aggregate numbers) confused. I wouldn't be shocked to see his career trajectory end up similarly to Mendenhall's (if you ignore his first season which was abruptly ended by injury). Although I do think the return of Nicks and Joseph will make it hard for him to bust below RB10 if he can endure a second season of that kind of workload.

As for Cobb, yes, I already knew he didn't start the whole season. But the fact remains that Rodgers spreads the ball around. He will likely not see more than 120 targets next year. Green Bay just doesn't focus on one guy like that. Last year he caught an astounding 71% of passes thrown his way, so even if he sees more targets, he could catch less passes. That's just the way it goes sometimes. I like Cobb, but I feel like you'd be paying for his ceiling at that ADP. There are players with higher upsides being drafted at the end of the 3rd round/beginning of the 4th round.

I agree that Wilson will almost certainly throw the ball more this year (would be hard to throw it less), but that doesn't mean there will be enough targets to make Harvin a top 10 WR. Plus, does anyone expect Seattle to use him as a running back like the Vikings did? Seattle has Lynch, Turbin, and Michael now. No need to subject their extremely well paid and injury prone WR to the rigors of that position.

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I'm looking at an ADP right now and I can't say these guys will be busts, but they scare me where they are:

1.03 Martin - guy averaged 4 ypc in 15 games not against Oakland. Looks like an avg RB with an elite workload. Not a huge bust, but maybe a RB10 finish for RB3 price.

1.04 Rice - I like Rice, but that workload and super bowl hangover might catch up to him. Suspect a similar drop like Martin - RB10ish.

1.10 McCoy - we don't know how the new coach will use him or how the offense is going to click. Could be RBBC for all we know.

2.09 Thomas - I really like Demaryius, but WR6 is too rich for my blood. His targets will drop with Welker and Manning's arm isn't getting stronger.

2.11 Ridley - I think both Blount and Vereen are talented players that will find a way on the field at his expense.

2.12 MJD - it's amazing what he's done on a terrible team, but lisfranc is a serious injury and his team is so bad.

3.01 Murray - glorified 3rd down back. He's a good player, but he's not a workhorse. His poor performance on 1st and 2nd down will not be aided by a bad offensive line.

3.02 Harvin - WR7 for a guy on the team with the least passing attempts in the NFL last year. Love his talent, not his situation.

3.08 Wilson - he could be a star, but I feel really shaky about him. Only like 70 carries and he's going in the 3rd.

4.01 Cobb - WR11 is possible, but not probable. Rodgers spreads the ball around too much. When Jennings was healthy for 16 games he did well to see 120 targets. Cobb got 112 last year and finished WR17. I expect similar stats this year, so not a huge bust.

5.05 Miller - getting to the point where busts don't matter, but he's a 4th round pick with only like 50 carries and someone will be drafting him as their RB2. High risk/high reward -> high potential for bust.

doug martin averaged 4.6 yards per carry as a ROOKIE so he has room for improvement. also you can't just say to forget about the oakland game because it actually happened and it wasn't as if oakland ranked 32nd in rushing defense they actually ranked 18th. also doug martin will be getting 2 very good guards back from injury to solidify his already pretty good offensive line. the sky is the limit for this guy in 2013. i could honestly see him finishing #1.

also i believe you'll be wrong about randall cobb. he's actually starting at WR this year which believe it or not he didn't do last year (only started 8 games). he's aaron rodger's favorite target and greg jennings is gone which means they are more targets to go around. this guy is also young and still learning and getting better every year just as doug martin is doing, and more than likely will actually be focusing on WR duties instead of playing special teams

harvin you can make the argument that even though they threw the least amount of passes last year it was with a rookie qb and minnesota wasn't far behind on pass attempts. i bet they allow wilson to throw the ball more especially with a wr like harvin on the field

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know.

I wasn't saying to throw the Oakland game out, but thought it was important to put it in context. That one game bloated his averages like crazy. He doesn't appear to be a special talent, but people on fantasy football boards tend to get talent and situation (or aggregate numbers) confused. I wouldn't be shocked to see his career trajectory end up similarly to Mendenhall's (if you ignore his first season which was abruptly ended by injury). Although I do think the return of Nicks and Joseph will make it hard for him to bust below RB10 if he can endure a second season of that kind of workload.

As for Cobb, yes, I already knew he didn't start the whole season. But the fact remains that Rodgers spreads the ball around. He will likely not see more than 120 targets next year. Green Bay just doesn't focus on one guy like that. Last year he caught an astounding 71% of passes thrown his way, so even if he sees more targets, he could catch less passes. That's just the way it goes sometimes. I like Cobb, but I feel like you'd be paying for his ceiling at that ADP. There are players with higher upsides being drafted at the end of the 3rd round/beginning of the 4th round.

I agree that Wilson will almost certainly throw the ball more this year (would be hard to throw it less), but that doesn't mean there will be enough targets to make Harvin a top 10 WR. Plus, does anyone expect Seattle to use him as a running back like the Vikings did? Seattle has Lynch, Turbin, and Michael now. No need to subject their extremely well paid and injury prone WR to the rigors of that position.

not sure how you can say doug martin doesn't appear to be a special talent, remember he finished as the #2/3 rb as a rookie. the improvement might not be tremendous but there is definitely still room for more

a wr that is the favorite target of aaron rodgers(whether he spreads it or not) that only started 8 games last year is only gonna see 15 more targets this year? with jennings gone? i just doubt that. he'd see more targets this year even if jennings was still around just based on him starting and the fact that he's getting better with experience

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*sigh*

not sure how you can say doug martin doesn't appear to be a special talent, remember he finished as the #2/3 rb as a rookie. the improvement might not be tremendous but there is definitely still room for more

He doesn't appear to be a special talent, but people on fantasy football boards tend to get talent and situation (or aggregate numbers) confused.

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*sigh*

not sure how you can say doug martin doesn't appear to be a special talent, remember he finished as the #2/3 rb as a rookie. the improvement might not be tremendous but there is definitely still room for more

He doesn't appear to be a special talent, but people on fantasy football boards tend to get talent and situation (or aggregate numbers) confused.

still not convincing me otherwise lol

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*sigh*

not sure how you can say doug martin doesn't appear to be a special talent, remember he finished as the #2/3 rb as a rookie. the improvement might not be tremendous but there is definitely still room for more

He doesn't appear to be a special talent, but people on fantasy football boards tend to get talent and situation (or aggregate numbers) confused.

is arian foster a special talent? he only averaged 4.0 ypc last year and he had the most carries in the entire league

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