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GottaGetTheWin

Bernard Pierce 2013 Season Outlook

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When he was on the field last year he was great, especially in the second half. He's the obvious handcuff to Rice and I think should be 100% owned by Rice owners but what is he to the non rice owners. Can he get possibly 10 touches a game and maybe vulture some TDs? There were times when he played the entire series.

Is he a possible Flex in a deeper league or just a stand alone handcuff?

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The common belief on this forum, that Pierce is well on his way to usurping Rice's carries to the point of diminishing his value, is somewhat of a fallacy.

In 2012, Pierce carried the rock 22 times in Week 17, when Rice was benched for rest purposes. Other than that game, when Rice was essentially unavailable, Pierce earned double-digit carries twice in all of 2012. In Weeks 1-16, Pierce averaged less than 5.4 carries per game.

I realize that it's often not fair to drop a guy's best game when determining his value (Justin Blackmon syndrome), but we know how circumstances often change in those Week 17 games. That's why most leagues don't play fantasy games during that week.

He is a solid back with decent dynasty value but, considering Rice's unparalleled durability (4 straight seasons of 16 games played), I'm not even sure it's an absolute must for Rice owners to occupy a bench spot by handcuffing him with Pierce.

I don't see this situation resembling any type of RBBC. Rice is the #1 guy. He will get the bulk of carries and a ton of targets. Pierce will get a few series a game, but not to the point where Rice loses his status as a legitimate RB1. Rice remains at least a top 6 or 7 pick, with very realistic top 3 upside. Pierce, to me, is just a guy who very cautious Rice owners should be selecting in re-drafts this season.

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When he was on the field last year he was great, especially in the second half. He's the obvious handcuff to Rice and I think should be 100% owned by Rice owners but what is he to the non rice owners. Can he get possibly 10 touches a game and maybe vulture some TDs? There were times when he played the entire series.

Is he a possible Flex in a deeper league or just a stand alone handcuff?

He played whole series at a time under Cam Cameron, rice got two and he got one, now with Jim Caldwell there I don't know if rice will get his rest the same way but if he can still get 1/3 if the carries he could be a flex play in deeper leagues

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The common belief on this forum, that Pierce is well on his way to usurping Rice's carries to the point of diminishing his value, is somewhat of a fallacy.

In 2012, Pierce carried the rock 22 times in Week 17, when Rice was benched for rest purposes. Other than that game, when Rice was essentially unavailable, Pierce earned double-digit carries twice in all of 2012. In Weeks 1-16, Pierce averaged less than 5.4 carries per game.

I realize that it's often not fair to drop a guy's best game when determining his value (Justin Blackmon syndrome), but we know how circumstances often change in those Week 17 games. That's why most leagues don't play fantasy games during that week.

He is a solid back with decent dynasty value but, considering Rice's unparalleled durability (4 straight seasons of 16 games played), I'm not even sure it's an absolute must for Rice owners to occupy a bench spot by handcuffing him with Pierce.

I don't see this situation resembling any type of RBBC. Rice is the #1 guy. He will get the bulk of carries and a ton of targets. Pierce will get a few series a game, but not to the point where Rice loses his status as a legitimate RB1. Rice remains at least a top 6 or 7 pick, with very realistic top 3 upside. Pierce, to me, is just a guy who very cautious Rice owners should be selecting in re-drafts this season.

Agree with this. He's a good player but not good enough that he's going to cut deeply into Rice's output. I think most rankings have him about an upper level handcuff with Ben Tate and I can agree with that.

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I think a lot of people feel pierce will get an uptick in carries because harbaugh said they need tk get him a bigger role after the SB last year. Whether that was just excitement after the win or a true plan I have no idea but its not just people on this forum. There have been more than a few articles about it and many rankings have rice bumped down a few notches all mentioning pierce as the reason.

This doesn't mean that he should get more carries or that he will get them but there are reasons that people expext pierce to get an increased role...

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I feel like his extra carries are more likely to come at Leech's "expense" than Rices. (Only 2 a game really)

No real reason the Ravens can't get Rice 20 touches, and Pierce 10 on a weekly basis.

In the playoffs under the new OC Rice averaged 24.5 carries/targets a game, and Pierce got 10.

With Boldin gone, perhaps the Ravens get a more balanced run:pass ratio this year under the new OC. If the defense can get back to 2011 form, then the Ravens might not even need to pass as much as they did in 2012 to begin with. Regardless, people can drop Rice as far as they want, but his consistency year after year, playing every game, at an RB1 level make him probably the safest pick of any RB in the draft, sans maybe AP.

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Those who think that Pierce won't cut into Rice's production and value in 2013 are kidding themselves. From week 9 on last year, Pierce averaged just under 10 touches a game, 4.9 YPC, and went over 100 yards in two of his final three games. And they are talking about using him more. Rice's numbers dropped in yards per carry and yards per catch from 2011. But you don't have to look at the numbers to know that Pierce will see more work, all you have to do is watch him run. He has bursts of speed that are incredible, they will not be able to keep him off the field.

Not saying he will take Rice's job, or even an RBBC, but a downgrade for Rice is definitely warranted. Rice is helped by the fact that with Boldin gone, he will probably get more action in the passing game (he has been the receiving back), and they will remain a run heavy offense. He has also been getting all of the goal line work, but you have to wonder if that will also continue.

Just saying that you have to downgrade RR substantially from last year, no doubt about it. Remains to be seen just how much.

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Rice has also been getting all of the goal line work, but you have to wonder if that will also continue.

No you don't. I see where the people are coming from with the Pierce hype but Rice is in no danger of losing his role as the goal line back. I think most of Pierce's most rabid supporters even realize that.

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Rice has also been getting all of the goal line work, but you have to wonder if that will also continue.

No you don't. I see where the people are coming from with the Pierce hype but Rice is in no danger of losing his role as the goal line back. I think most of Pierce's most rabid supporters even realize that.

You may be right, but you don't know that. Hell, the Baltimore coaching staff doesn't even know right now what the actual split will be, how can you be so sure? Like many other situations, it will just have to play out. All we really know for sure right now is that Pierce will cut into RR's workload, how much is not known. We also know that the coaching staff loves what they've seen from Pierce (how could they not?), and want to increase his workload.

So, all we are saying here is that the Pierce impact on RR's fantasy value will be real, and will be impactful, should be considered when evaluating RR.

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From week 9 on last year, Pierce averaged just under 10 touches a game

And Rice averaged 24.5.

I've asked time and time again for people to provide some type of legitimate logic, reasoning, proof or otherwise as to why that can't continue? Or why you think 24 touches a game for Rice isn't enough for him to maintain mid-low RB1 production. No one has, because no one can. Just keep spewing the same single sentence in 50 different ways. It's not getting us anywhere for either side.

Despite Bernard Pierce's impressive rookie year, the Baltimore Sun states the Ravens "aren't planning to dramatically alter" the distribution of carries between Pierce and Ray Rice.

"Rice remains entrenched as the feature back," writes beat reporter Aaron Wilson. As expected. Wilson does concede Pierce's "workload is expected to increase," likely rising from about seven touches a game into the 10-14 range, on average.

There's no reason Pierce can't get 10-12 every game, while Rice gets 20-22. There's no reason these guys can't co-exist.

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I hear Bernard Pierce is likely to take over the starting gig by week 5. That true?

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From week 9 on last year, Pierce averaged just under 10 touches a game

And Rice averaged 24.5.

I've asked time and time again for people to provide some type of legitimate logic, reasoning, proof or otherwise as to why that can't continue? Or why you think 24 touches a game for Rice isn't enough for him to maintain mid-low RB1 production. No one has, because no one can. Just keep spewing the same single sentence in 50 different ways. It's not getting us anywhere for either side.

Despite Bernard Pierce's impressive rookie year, the Baltimore Sun states the Ravens "aren't planning to dramatically alter" the distribution of carries between Pierce and Ray Rice.

"Rice remains entrenched as the feature back," writes beat reporter Aaron Wilson. As expected. Wilson does concede Pierce's "workload is expected to increase," likely rising from about seven touches a game into the 10-14 range, on average.

There's no reason Pierce can't get 10-12 every game, while Rice gets 20-22. There's no reason these guys can't co-exist.

Again, not disagreeing with anything you are saying. But you have a situation where a top 5-10 overall pick in FF is shadowed by a player who is going to take away some work, how much is not known. If Pierce shines, which so far he has, and all indications are he will, then there's no way we can sit here today and say that Rice will maintain top 5 level production, or that your prescribed number of touches per game will continue for him. I'm not paying his price with that kind of risk out there. Bernard could go out and kill it to the point that they have no choice but to give him more work.

If you're comfortable with it, have at it, but for me, there are safer #1 draft picks.

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there are safer #1 draft picks.

Wow. IMO there is literally no safer #1 pick than Ray Rice.

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there are safer #1 draft picks.

Wow. IMO there is literally no safer #1 pick than Ray Rice.

Wow. Then draft him.

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there are safer #1 draft picks.

Wow. IMO there is literally no safer #1 pick than Ray Rice.

Wow. Then draft him.

I plan on it. You realize that he's like never missed a game and stuff, right?

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there are safer #1 draft picks.

Wow. IMO there is literally no safer #1 pick than Ray Rice.

Wow. Then draft him.

I plan on it. You realize that he's like never missed a game and stuff, right?

Is that what you get out of this whole discussion? That it's about how many games he's missed/his reliability? Tell me more, does he participate in community activities, a good samaritan and all of that? That would be equally germaine to the discussion here.

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there are safer #1 draft picks.

Wow. IMO there is literally no safer #1 pick than Ray Rice.

Wow. Then draft him.

I plan on it. You realize that he's like never missed a game and stuff, right?

Is that what you get out of this whole discussion? That it's about how many games he's missed/his reliability? Tell me more, does he participate in community activities, a good samaritan and all of that? That would be equally germaine to the discussion here.

Yeah, you're not following. My point is that, if a guy puts up several elite seasons as an NFL lead back and plays every single game every year, including multiple playoff games, that factors heavily into how "safe" he is since high usage backs go down with such regularity in the league. Is this a novel concept to you?

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Look, since you are a Senator, I will address you appropriately.

To the gentleman from Space:

I understand your point about him being safe from a standpoint of reliability, not getting hurt, perfect attendance, yada yada. That does not affect the dynamics of the point of this discussion, which is how the advent of his backup's success will impact his future output. Safe as far as being there...sure! Safe as far as producing at the same level that you drafted him for...no!

Clearly we disagree on this point, and that's okay, that is what these forums are for...discussion and debate. I believe we have exhausted this issue, and although we've taken different sides of the argument on this one, I do respect your opinion Mr. Senator.

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Okay, that's fine. We disagree. But stop inferring that I was somehow attempting to derail the thread. Look at the quotes above. You implied that he wasn't a safe pick and I took umbrage with that and explained why he is safer (more reliable/dependable) than most. But this was accused of being "germaine" and something that "does not affect the dynamics of the discussion"?

I know it wasn't what you wanted to hear but I don't know what else to tell you. It's all right there.

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Those who think that Pierce won't cut into Rice's production and value in 2013 are kidding themselves. From week 9 on last year, Pierce averaged just under 10 touches a game, 4.9 YPC, and went over 100 yards in two of his final three games. And they are talking about using him more. Rice's numbers dropped in yards per carry and yards per catch from 2011. But you don't have to look at the numbers to know that Pierce will see more work, all you have to do is watch him run. He has bursts of speed that are incredible, they will not be able to keep him off the field.

Not saying he will take Rice's job, or even an RBBC, but a downgrade for Rice is definitely warranted. Rice is helped by the fact that with Boldin gone, he will probably get more action in the passing game (he has been the receiving back), and they will remain a run heavy offense. He has also been getting all of the goal line work, but you have to wonder if that will also continue.

Just saying that you have to downgrade RR substantially from last year, no doubt about it. Remains to be seen just how much.

I don't know that I would include week 17 carries for Pierce. Pierce had 22 and Rice only had 3 in that game and they had already clinched a playoff spot. From weeks 9-16 Rice averaged 18.5 carries while Pierce averaged 8.8. Those numbers over the course of a year translate to 296 carries for Rice and 141 for Pierce. They had 365 total carries last year between them. I think it's possible that even if Pierce's carries increase to 150 or so (which I don't think is a sure thing), Rice can still get the same 250 carries. Do you really think Rice is not going to hit 1000 rushing and 500 receiving yards? Or 1500 total yards? (and I think he could easily be closer to 1100 and 600 at least) He should still manage another 10 TDs imo. That would have put him at the #7 RB spot last year, one spot lower than he actually was last year.

And also over the course of the last 9 weeks, Pierce may have had a 4.9 ypc overall, but he still had games with averages of 3.7, 2.3, 4.0, 3.8, 4.3, 4.0, 4.0, really no better than Rice. The other weeks were 6.6 and 8.8. Rice's average over the final 8 weeks (excluding week 17) was 4.1, but he still had games with averages of 4.4, 6.5, 6.1, 4.5. In 2011 when Rice was the #1 fantasy back, he still had 7 games with a ypc under 4.0. In 2012 he had 7 games under 4.0 ypc.

I don't agree with saying Rice's ypc dropped in 2011. His ypc was 4.4 last year, 4.7 the year before - .3 is not a significant amount imo. Arian Foster's ypc dropped the same amount from 2011 to 2012, rushing avg tends to fluctuate a little bit each year. Rice is still only 26 years old, and his career average is 4.5 so it's not like 2012 was an off year statistically. I also wouldn't put stock into avg per reception dropping a yard from his average - Ladainian Tomlinson's avg routinely changed a yard or so each year (up or down), it didn't mean anything. Sproles' receiving average has fluctuated a bit over the years. These are not solid numbers, they vary a bit from year to year. But the changes in Rice's avgs are not significant.

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No Maclin. Brown #1 RB handcuff and is arguably the better RB in Philly. No Pitta. Bernard Pierce is very valuable. Yeah, you go ahead and reach for Ben Tate. We Foster owners have been there and done that, no thanks.

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Wait....so not only is Pierce better than Rice, but now Bryce Brown is 'arguably the better RB in Philly'?

Fantasy hipsters are taking over this forum.

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Wait....so not only is Pierce better than Rice, but now Bryce Brown is 'arguably the better RB in Philly'?

Fantasy hipsters are taking over this forum.

Light years better than McCoy, obviously. 20 touchdowns? Bryce Brown could flex and score two dozen.

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