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TheWrightStuff

Noah Syndergaard - SP NYM

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For me, in a dynasty or even a deep keeper, where I do own Syndergaard, I'd take Noah over Zimm every time, but that's me, I love high upside arms that bring the cheddah.

Some will argue that Zimm has proven himself whereas, Noah is still in AA, they'll say take the proven commodity, but for me, stepping outside the box and taking a chance on a high upside player is what wins leagues, ( also, they can lose them as well), but in a dynasty, give me the SP2's with SP1 upside every day.

Good luck..

My take a bit different as I already consider Zimmerman a SP2 with SP1 upside (probably difficult to get to SP1 status due to his 7SO/9.

While Zimmerman has a career 3.40 ERA (which is still awesome), just check out his last 3 years:

2011 - 3.18 era - 1.15 whip

2012 - 2.94 era - 1.17 whip

2013 - 3.25 era - 1.09 whip

Zimmerman also had a very good SO/9 in the minors but has only translated to a 7 SO/9 in the bigs, that happens to a lot of SP's.

I think anyone would be hard pressed to say Syndergaard is a disappointment if he has a 3 year stretch early in his career like the one's put up by Zimmerman.

While there's always a chance that Syndergaard comes up a dominates like Wacha, he could easily come up and struggle like Kevin Gausman.

But this type of conversation is why baseball and fantasy baseball is so fun....you never know for sure how it's going to end up.

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Very nice numbers, no doubt, and In real life, you're right, Zimm is a nice pitcher to own, but this is fantasy baseball we're talking.

My SP1 has to have a k/9 over 7, same with my SP2, and they must have the ability to dominate, if Syn matures and takes the next step and developes his secondary pitches, he can and most likely will meet that criteria, Zimm is who he is, to me, depending on who my SP1 is, Zimm is a very nice high SP3-low SP2.

Give me Cole, Fernandez, Walker, Bradley, Bumgarner, Sale( and pray his arm doesn't fall off), Stephenson, Salazar, Gray over Zimm in a 12 team dynasty, their upsides are worth the risk for me, and I'll take Zimm as my SP3 and be planning on contending for a championship yearly, but relying on him as your SP1 is planning on next season.

Back to OP's question, is Syndergaard worth more than JZimm in a dynasty? It depends on league size and settings, MY answer is still yes if the league is bigger than 10 teams.

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Would you say hes worth more than Jzimm in a dynasty?

Zimmerman is already a stud and only 27. I'm sure the Mets are hoping that Syndergaard will get to Zimmerman level.

Noah is worth way more than Zimmerman. The upside of a potential Cy Young winner vs a #2 starter. I like Zimmerman a lot but he's not even an ace (in regular baseball terms let alone fantasy terms) and coming off a career year.

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Would you say hes worth more than Jzimm in a dynasty?

Zimmerman is already a stud and only 27. I'm sure the Mets are hoping that Syndergaard will get to Zimmerman level.

Noah is worth way more than Zimmerman. The upside of a potential Cy Young winner vs a #2 starter. I like Zimmerman a lot but he's not even an ace (in regular baseball terms let alone fantasy terms) and coming off a career year.

Like said earlier in the thread you never know. But I'll take my chances on the upside just about every time.

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

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Not trying to take anything away from Zimm, but Zimmerman has a career era of 3.40, whip of 1.17, k/9 is 7. not exactly a stud, but a good SP3 with upside of a low end 2. I think that if Noah ends up being what Zimm is, it might be seen as a little disappointment. They're hoping Noah becomes a high end SP2 with front line upside. K/9 between the 2 are not even close, but others have mentioned Walker and Bradley, both of whom have higher upsides than Zimm by a large margin, if Noah does meet expectations, the sky's the limit, great control with a fastball that consistently sits around 96, and can touch 98-99. Noah's one fault thus far is that he's hittable, needs his secondary pitches to take the next level, change is good, curve is becoming very good, if they improve, and he maintains his control, he should become a very good SP2-1, if not, then he can be compared with other SP3's, but like I said, that'd be a disappointment IMO.

His past three seasons: 3.12 ERA with so/bb rates of 3.84. Not a stud?

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IS there any chance he breaks camp as a #5 ? Do the mets even have 5 guys in their rotation right now ?

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I could honestly see virtually unknown SP prospect Logan Verrett sneaking his way into the rotation by mid season.

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I could honestly see virtually unknown SP prospect Logan Verrett sneaking his way into the rotation by mid season.

Rafael Montero as well

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I like Noah better than anyone in The Mets organization.

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I like Noah better than anyone in The Mets organization.

WHAT??? I will never call anyone "wrong" with prospect predictions but I think saying that he will be better then Harvey (who was arguably the best pitcher in the league last year until the injury) warrants more of an explanation if ya don't mind.

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I like Noah better than anyone in The Mets organization.

WHAT??? I will never call anyone "wrong" with prospect predictions but I think saying that he will be better then Harvey (who was arguably the best pitcher in the league last year until the injury) warrants more of an explanation if ya don't mind.

1. Harvey blew out his elbow and is on the recovery. So his stock has dipped far from being a top 5 pitcher right now.

2. Harvey dominated the majors harder than he ever dominated the minors. So as high as I was on Harvey I never expected that level of dominance. I would think even at 100% healthy he'd see a fair amount of regression in 2014, let alone when he comes back from TJ.

3. Noah's minor league numbers are way beyond what Harvey was doing in the minors.

4. Noah is 3 years younger.

5. Noah is 2"+ taller.

6. Harvey's hype at a mainstream level is much higher than Noah's even with blowing out his elbow (which isn't really a huge deal anymore). So I feel in terms of a dynasty league Noah is a far better value.

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I get Syndergaard in every league I can.

He has great stuff. In a few years the Mets will have a killer rotation

- Harvey

- Wheeler

- Syndergaard

- Niese

- Jenrry Mejia

I like Noah way more than Zimmerman.

I like Noah better than anyone in The Mets organization.

WHAT??? I will never call anyone "wrong" with prospect predictions but I think saying that he will be better then Harvey (who was arguably the best pitcher in the league last year until the injury) warrants more of an explanation if ya don't mind.

1. Harvey blew out his elbow and is on the recovery. So his stock has dipped far from being a top 5 pitcher right now.

2. Harvey dominated the majors harder than he ever dominated the minors. So as high as I was on Harvey I never expected that level of dominance. I would think even at 100% healthy he'd see a fair amount of regression in 2014, let alone when he comes back from TJ.

3. Noah's minor league numbers are way beyond what Harvey was doing in the minors.

4. Noah is 3 years younger.

5. Noah is 2"+ taller.

6. Harvey's hype at a mainstream level is much higher than Noah's even with blowing out his elbow (which isn't really a huge deal anymore). So I feel in terms of a dynasty league Noah is a far better value.

Not sure I agree with that logic. So you are basically banking on TJ messing up Harvey's stuff?

Comparing milb numbers is meaningless, while Harvey was a nice prospect he was nothing like what his mlb profile now is. His fastball gained a ton of velocity completely changing his projections.

I am not sure what the 2 inches does, I mean I would get that if we were comparing projections for prospects but obviously Harvey is no longer a prospect and his projections are pretty clear.

Your last point may be valid about pure value but the rest?? To be right you need a major regression from Harvey or Noah to be a top 3 pitcher in the MLB. I think both are pretty unlikely.

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Not sure I agree with that logic. So you are basically banking on TJ messing up Harvey's stuff?

Comparing milb numbers is meaningless, while Harvey was a nice prospect he was nothing like what his mlb profile now is. His fastball gained a ton of velocity completely changing his projections.

I am not sure what the 2 inches does, I mean I would get that if we were comparing projections for prospects but obviously Harvey is no longer a prospect and his projections are pretty clear.

Everyone who discounts minor league numbers are just flat out too lazy to look them up. A whole hell of a lot can be predicted by minor league numbers, if you disagree I'll just tell you that you don't know baseball.

Sure there's a point in a players career that minor league numbers don't matter. But neither Harvey nor Syndergaard are at that point. Harvey just broke out hard and I fully expected a big break out. Was I calling for a top 5 SP? No, so even my lofty expectations were exceeded. Which instantly throws a red flag up for me any time that happens.

Harvey had more dominate numbers than he ever has posted in pro ball or college. By a wide margin. So while Harvey may be an ace, I'd bank on him being a lesser version of his 2013 self despite surgery. Couple in that he blew his elbow out and now regression is just about a certaintiy for me.

Honestly how are you not expecting regression out of Matt Harvey? Do you expect Matt Harvey will end his career with a sub 1 WHIP and a sub 2.50 ERA? Because he'd be a lock for the HoF if he ended his career with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (if he can get over 2k career innings).

2 inches does a hell of a whole lot. Notice how a majorty of MLB pitchers are tall. The longer the arm the easier it is to throw harder. The longer the body the closer to the plate you are to the plate when you release the ball. Most importantly the taller a pitcher is, the more downward plan a pitcher can get on the ball the harder he is to hit (again these are generalites here so don't go attacking me on technicality).

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Your last point may be valid about pure value but the rest?? To be right you need a major regression from Harvey or Noah to be a top 3 pitcher in the MLB. I think both are pretty unlikely.

Harvey is not even a top 3 SP. Honestly I'm not even sure he's a top 5 pitcher (just based off of last year even).

Even if he finished the season last year he wasn't going to out do Kershaw. Darvish and Scherzer hold more merrit because they've done it a bit longer as well as they are doing it in The AL and did it the entire season in 2013. Also not many people will say Harvey is better than Jose Fernandez, who I won't call at top 3 SP but I surely think he's better than Harvey.

So by my count that puts him at #5. But then I realize I have no doubt in my mind the much less hyped but more proven and much more left handed Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner are better pitchers than Harvey that knocks him down to #7. Before considering that his value should take a pretty big hit just due to getting Tommy John Surgery.

Let alone all the other proven veteran aces: Verlander, Wainwright, Lee. Hell let's just throw Strasburgs name out there too. Has Harvey really done enough for you to honestly think he's better than these guys? That's all in speculation I suppose, but I'll take Strasburg over Harvey in a heartbeat.... Now Lee and Wainwright I'll say Harvey has done enough to surpass them for me but Verlander? No, I think Verlander comes back in a big way next year and obviously Harvey is going to miss probably all of 2014.

Honestly I'm still thinking Tehran could end up being as good as Harvey. With the potential to be better.

So honestly if Noah is a top 10 SP which it looks like he could become he would be on par with Harvey if Harvey comes back with no set backs and his full arsenal working 100%.

So I don't get how Noah would have to be a top 3 SP as well as Harvey regress. Harvey never was a top 3 SP (at the end or begining of any season) as well as a regression is an almost certainty.... And not just a minor regression to where his ERA goes to 2.50 and WHIP goes it 1.01, I'm talking Harvey probably comes back when 100% and throws up a 2.90 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. Which there's no shame in that, that is still big time ace material. But sub 1 WHIPs and sub 2.50 ERAs aren't annual things for many (if any) pitchers. Kershaw is looking to possibly defy this.

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So I think my point is still valid, you are expecting a major regression for Harvey because his number so far makes him a top 3 pitcher. In 237 ip he has a 2.39 era, .985 whip and 10 k/9. I would agree that Kershaw is number 1 but no one else has those numbers over the last 2 years. I am not making a "I would take this guy or that guy" argument but simply put, hes been a top 3 pitcher over the last year an a half.

So back to my point, you really like Noah (and that's fine, no argument here) and you expect a regression from Harvey.

I am not even debating the validity of your point because he very well may regress I just wanted to be clear on what your point is.

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Your last point may be valid about pure value but the rest?? To be right you need a major regression from Harvey or Noah to be a top 3 pitcher in the MLB. I think both are pretty unlikely.

My point was Harvey isn't even a top 3 pitcher.

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Your last point may be valid about pure value but the rest?? To be right you need a major regression from Harvey or Noah to be a top 3 pitcher in the MLB. I think both are pretty unlikely.

My point was Harvey isn't even a top 3 pitcher.

I think that was clear but pure numbers say otherwise.

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Your last point may be valid about pure value but the rest?? To be right you need a major regression from Harvey or Noah to be a top 3 pitcher in the MLB. I think both are pretty unlikely.

My point was Harvey isn't even a top 3 pitcher.

I think that was clear but pure numbers say otherwise.

He has the Talent...

He doesn't have track record... I'm not dubbing anyone who hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season top 3. IMO

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Syndergaard will throw around 150 innings, most of them for the Mets

March 19th, 2014 11:45 am

Mets RHP prospect Noah Syndergaard was demoted and sent to minor-league camp Tuesday.

Syndergaard was recently named the league’s third-best, right-handed pitching prospect by Baseball America.

The Mets are expected to keep him in Triple-A until at least June or July, in what is likely an effort to prevent him from earning arbitration eligibility a year early.

The team will reportedly keep Syndergaard around 150 innings pitched this season, which may mean shorter outings in Triple-A so he can go deeper in to games when eventually promoted to the Mets.

“We’re going to be probably one of the best rotations in baseball,” Syndergaard said (NY Post, Mar. 19), talking about himself, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and other teammates. “Those names on that list, who knows where everyone is going to be?”

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I really wonder if the DBacks actually thought they could get him for Didi?

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Syndergaard will throw around 150 innings, most of them for the Mets

March 19th, 2014 11:45 am

Mets RHP prospect Noah Syndergaard was demoted and sent to minor-league camp Tuesday.

Syndergaard was recently named the league’s third-best, right-handed pitching prospect by Baseball America.

The Mets are expected to keep him in Triple-A until at least June or July, in what is likely an effort to prevent him from earning arbitration eligibility a year early.

The team will reportedly keep Syndergaard around 150 innings pitched this season, which may mean shorter outings in Triple-A so he can go deeper in to games when eventually promoted to the Mets.

“We’re going to be probably one of the best rotations in baseball,” Syndergaard said (NY Post, Mar. 19), talking about himself, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and other teammates. “Those names on that list, who knows where everyone is going to be?”

He's feeling himself a little bit too much. Still quite a bit of room for improvement.

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Syndergaard will throw around 150 innings, most of them for the Mets

March 19th, 2014 11:45 am

Mets RHP prospect Noah Syndergaard was demoted and sent to minor-league camp Tuesday.

Syndergaard was recently named the league’s third-best, right-handed pitching prospect by Baseball America.

The Mets are expected to keep him in Triple-A until at least June or July, in what is likely an effort to prevent him from earning arbitration eligibility a year early.

The team will reportedly keep Syndergaard around 150 innings pitched this season, which may mean shorter outings in Triple-A so he can go deeper in to games when eventually promoted to the Mets.

“We’re going to be probably one of the best rotations in baseball,” Syndergaard said (NY Post, Mar. 19), talking about himself, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey and other teammates. “Those names on that list, who knows where everyone is going to be?”

He's feeling himself a little bit too much. Still quite a bit of room for improvement.

I'm okay with his bravado. Plus, baseball has a way of humbling you.

From the little I've seen I like him more long-term than Wheeler.

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