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Code of Hammurabi

Omer Asik 2013-2014 Season Outlook

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If I were a team looking for a solid young big on a cheap contract i'd certainly be putting in a call to Houston. The mavericks, Hawks, sixers all seem like good destinations if they are going to unload Omer

The Rockets have made Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin "available" in trade talks, according to CBSSports.com.

We've already heard rumblings that Lin was on the block, and Asik's inclusion makes it clear that Houston fully intends to sign Dwight Howard this summer. The 76ers have been mentioned as a possible destination for Asik, but only as speculation. Any deal that includes Lin would also require Houston getting back a starting PG, presumably one who looks to pass first, and the Rockets are still a long way from consummating any trades.

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So, they're 100% sure that Dwight will be a Rocket?

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So, they're 100% sure that Dwight will be a Rocket?

They've only put him on the block. That doesn't mean they're necessarily ready to part with him. I think this is just for PR purposes directed at Dwight. They just cleared cap space by dealing away T-Rob, and now they're dangling Asik. To Dwight, isn't that a sign of a team who truly wants you and wants to make you their cornerstone piece? If it works, they get Howard, and they got a head start to Asik talks. If it doesn't work, they pull Asik off the block and have him as their starting center next year.

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So, they're 100% sure that Dwight will be a Rocket?

They've only put him on the block. That doesn't mean they're necessarily ready to part with him. I think this is just for PR purposes directed at Dwight. They just cleared cap space by dealing away T-Rob, and now they're dangling Asik. To Dwight, isn't that a sign of a team who truly wants you and wants to make you their cornerstone piece? If it works, they get Howard, and they got a head start to Asik talks. If it doesn't work, they pull Asik off the block and have him as their starting center next year.

Exactly. I don't expect anything to happen with Asik until the 10th, if Dwight is done soaking up the attention by then and makes his decision.

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Asik makes $15 million in 2014-15. If Dwight comes to town, Asik will be gone sooner or later. They'd be spending too much money on two guys who can only play center.

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Asik makes $15 million in 2014-15. If Dwight comes to town, Asik will be gone sooner or later. They'd be spending too much money on two guys who can only play center.

Just wondering, how does the whole actual salary vs cap hold factor in to a team's salary cap? I know that while Asik's contract is backloaded, but basketballreference says that Asik's cap hold remains a constant $8.4M throughout the 3-year contract.

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Asik makes $15 million in 2014-15. If Dwight comes to town, Asik will be gone sooner or later. They'd be spending too much money on two guys who can only play center.

Just wondering, how does the whole actual salary vs cap hold factor in to a team's salary cap? I know that while Asik's contract is backloaded, but basketballreference says that Asik's cap hold remains a constant $8.4M throughout the 3-year contract.

$8.4 million per year is right, and that's the figure that affects the salary cap. I think the $15 million poison pill would only have applied to the Bulls had they matched (as was the case for Lin and the Knicks).

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Asik makes $15 million in 2014-15. If Dwight comes to town, Asik will be gone sooner or later. They'd be spending too much money on two guys who can only play center.

Just wondering, how does the whole actual salary vs cap hold factor in to a team's salary cap? I know that while Asik's contract is backloaded, but basketballreference says that Asik's cap hold remains a constant $8.4M throughout the 3-year contract.

$8.4 million per year is right, and that's the figure that affects the salary cap. I think the $15 million poison pill would only have applied to the Bulls had they matched (as was the case for Lin and the Knicks).

Wait what? Why would it only affect the bulls/Knicks if they matched but not the rockets?

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Asik makes $15 million in 2014-15. If Dwight comes to town, Asik will be gone sooner or later. They'd be spending too much money on two guys who can only play center.

Just wondering, how does the whole actual salary vs cap hold factor in to a team's salary cap? I know that while Asik's contract is backloaded, but basketballreference says that Asik's cap hold remains a constant $8.4M throughout the 3-year contract.

$8.4 million per year is right, and that's the figure that affects the salary cap. I think the $15 million poison pill would only have applied to the Bulls had they matched (as was the case for Lin and the Knicks).

Wait what? Why would it only affect the bulls/Knicks if they matched but not the rockets?

It has to do with the Gilbert Arenas rule. When it comes to RFA's, the max first-year salary in an offer sheet is the MLE. The second year is limited to a 4.5% raise from the first year. For the third year, the salary can be as much as the team has in their salary cap. The rule was put in place after Arenas received a larger contract by signing with the Wizards and leaving the Warriors way back in the day.

But the Gilbert Arenas rule has a loophole, and here's the relevant part: for the offering team, the contract's AVERAGE counts against the cap, while for the original team, the player's salary for EACH YEAR counts against the cap. This loophole is known as the poison pill.

Using the examples of Lin and Asik, each player counts $8.4M against the Rockets' salary cap per year. But for the Knicks/Bulls, the hit to the cap would be $5M in year one, $5M in year two, and $15M in year three. Year three, obviously, is where the poison pill comes into play. By matching, the Knicks would have been faced with a massive luxury tax bill in 2014-2015 with the contracts of Melo, Stoudemire, Chandler, and Lin. According to some estimates, the Knicks luxury tax would have been increased by $30-40M to keep Lin.

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Thanks for explaining that. I look at hoopshype for team/player salaries and it has Omer/Lin costing Houston 15 mil each next year. I guess it's an error on their part.

So if they are traded, how does it affect the reviving teams' cap?

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I think basketball reference has the salary cap breakdown correct, if you're interested: http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/HOU.html

If Omer/Lin are traded, it would affect the receiving team's cap the same as it would the Rockets' cap: $8.4 million per year for the next two years. That seems like a very solid deal for any team that receives Omer, which is why I'm assuming he'll draw a lot of interest.

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Whatever happens with Asik, I just want him to get a healthy slate of minutes. He can be a great addition to certain types of team builds as a source of elite rebounds as well as decent blocks, and I think most fans still aren't aware of his game so you might be able to get him cheaper in the draft.

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Whatever happens with Asik, I just want him to get a healthy slate of minutes. He can be a great addition to certain types of team builds as a source of elite rebounds as well as decent blocks, and I think most fans still aren't aware of his game so you might be able to get him cheaper in the draft.

Yeah, also 8.4M per year is a bargain for a starting caliber center like Asik. When you look around the league and see what Jordan is getting and guys like Lopez getting maxed out, 8.3M is a steal.

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It has to do with the Gilbert Arenas rule. When it comes to RFA's, the max first-year salary in an offer sheet is the MLE. The second year is limited to a 4.5% raise from the first year. For the third year, the salary can be as much as the team has in their salary cap. The rule was put in place after Arenas received a larger contract by signing with the Wizards and leaving the Warriors way back in the day.

But the Gilbert Arenas rule has a loophole, and here's the relevant part: for the offering team, the contract's AVERAGE counts against the cap, while for the original team, the player's salary for EACH YEAR counts against the cap. This loophole is known as the poison pill.

Using the examples of Lin and Asik, each player counts $8.4M against the Rockets' salary cap per year. But for the Knicks/Bulls, the hit to the cap would be $5M in year one, $5M in year two, and $15M in year three. Year three, obviously, is where the poison pill comes into play. By matching, the Knicks would have been faced with a massive luxury tax bill in 2014-2015 with the contracts of Melo, Stoudemire, Chandler, and Lin. According to some estimates, the Knicks luxury tax would have been increased by $30-40M to keep Lin.

Thanks for the clarification. However, doesn't this mean that it's incredibly easy for teams to pry away restricted free agents? Outside of both Lin and Asik in the same offseason, and by the same team, why doesn't it happen more often?

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It has to do with the Gilbert Arenas rule. When it comes to RFA's, the max first-year salary in an offer sheet is the MLE. The second year is limited to a 4.5% raise from the first year. For the third year, the salary can be as much as the team has in their salary cap. The rule was put in place after Arenas received a larger contract by signing with the Wizards and leaving the Warriors way back in the day.

But the Gilbert Arenas rule has a loophole, and here's the relevant part: for the offering team, the contract's AVERAGE counts against the cap, while for the original team, the player's salary for EACH YEAR counts against the cap. This loophole is known as the poison pill.

Using the examples of Lin and Asik, each player counts $8.4M against the Rockets' salary cap per year. But for the Knicks/Bulls, the hit to the cap would be $5M in year one, $5M in year two, and $15M in year three. Year three, obviously, is where the poison pill comes into play. By matching, the Knicks would have been faced with a massive luxury tax bill in 2014-2015 with the contracts of Melo, Stoudemire, Chandler, and Lin. According to some estimates, the Knicks luxury tax would have been increased by $30-40M to keep Lin.

Thanks for the clarification. However, doesn't this mean that it's incredibly easy for teams to pry away restricted free agents? Outside of both Lin and Asik in the same offseason, and by the same team, why doesn't it happen more often?

The poison pill contract is a bigger deal now with the new CBA rules, which impose more punitive tax penalties on teams deep in luxury tax and repeat offenders. So smart front offices are starting to make these offers (not all GM's are created equal, see: Isiah Thomas, David Kahn). In theory, it should be incredibly easy for teams to pry away restricted free agents, which kinda defeats the purpose of the Gilbert Arenas Rule.

But it also requires a somewhat special set of circumstances:

(1) The offering team must have a lot of cap space;

(2) Matching the offer sheet would put the original team deep in luxury tax;

(3) The player must only have been in the league for fewer than three seasons (i.e., Early Bird free agents).

The Early Bird FA provision is the key part here because the purpose of the Gilbert Arenas rule is mainly intended to ensure that teams do not lose their successful second round picks (generally FA's after two years).

Omer Asik was a second round pick. Jeremy Lin wasn't drafted. That's why the poison pill contract was so successful in these two instances. But when you consider how many second round picks or undrafted players are so successful in the NBA so early in their careers, you can see why the poison pill contract doesn't happen quite as often as you might think it should.

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So where do we think this guy ends up? Is he even relevant as a last round pick on most other teams? No way he stays in HOU though that's for sure, and if he is there to start the season, he definitely won't end the season there.

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No matter what Houston is saying, I doubt they're going to stay put with Asik. $8.4M is a lot of money to pay a backup big, and that's a lot of money that could be used to address other roster issues. It's interesting that the Pelicans aren't interested in Asik whatsoever given their absolute lack of a starting caliber center, but I'm sure plenty of other teams will make inquiries, such as Portland.

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No matter what Houston is saying, I doubt they're going to stay put with Asik. $8.4M is a lot of money to pay a backup big, and that's a lot of money that could be used to address other roster issues. It's interesting that the Pelicans aren't interested in Asik whatsoever given their absolute lack of a starting caliber center, but I'm sure plenty of other teams will make inquiries, such as Portland.

Well, if it's for Anderson straight up then you can understand their reservation. But hey, it's the Pelicans, they'll most likely make a bad deal like that....

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No matter what Houston is saying, I doubt they're going to stay put with Asik. $8.4M is a lot of money to pay a backup big, and that's a lot of money that could be used to address other roster issues. It's interesting that the Pelicans aren't interested in Asik whatsoever given their absolute lack of a starting caliber center, but I'm sure plenty of other teams will make inquiries, such as Portland.

Well, if it's for Anderson straight up then you can understand their reservation. But hey, it's the Pelicans, they'll most likely make a bad deal like that....

Lol exactly, the Pelicans will most likely want to give up Anderson & Davis for Asik, just to be safe. Joking aside, I'm sure the Pelicans would love to have Asik on their roster though, it was most likely just that they didn't want to give up Anderson, arguably the 2nd best 3PT shooter in the league right now and a far above avg O-Reb'er for an offensively raw C who can't hit FT's. Asik's strengths don't complement Davis' as well as they would Anderson's, and obviously it would be insane to part with Davis for Asik.

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So assuming he doesn't get traded, and is healthy, what you you think he gets? I think he should still get 25 min, as long as the chemistry isn't all jacked up. If so, what numbers do you think are realistic?

9pt, 8reb, 52%fg, 55%FT, .5 stl, 1blk should be possible. He's on the wire in our league. Not sure if those numbers are good enough to reach for. Any thoughts?

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I really like Asik's game, so Im sad to say that I think he's going to return to obscurity behind Dwight.

If he gets traded to the right team he could be a force on the boards, so Id definitely keep an eye on Rockets trade news. Chances are people would be all over that anyway, so I don't see many positive scenarios for rostering him right now.

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He is highly valued around the league in real-life basketball so just a matter of time before he is traded. Houston won't unload a valuable assest like Asik for garbage though. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread a stretch PF like Ryan Anderson would be a perfect fit for Houston. They might have to make a move if Donatas/Jones/Casspi can't get the job done.

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He is highly valued around the league in real-life basketball so just a matter of time before he is traded. Houston won't unload a valuable assest like Asik for garbage though. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread a stretch PF like Ryan Anderson would be a perfect fit for Houston. They might have to make a move if Donatas/Jones/Casspi can't get the job done.

That is actually a really good trade, NOP could really use a bruising defensive center like Asik and Houston could,really use an elite,stretch 4 like Anderson.

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This trade would seem to make sense for both teams but when Dwight goes to bench, Hou defense becomes turrible and opponents make big runs. Hou want to have a quality center on the floor for the whole game, because the drop-off is so big that having a great floor spacer like RyNo won't make up for it. And spacing shouldn't be a big problem for Hou, they have plenty of good 3pt shooters, can play Parsons at 4 if need be. And Dwight has an amazing scorer next to him, unlike in his Orlando days, so they will be fine as long as their D stays solid.

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