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Arian Foster 2013 Season Outlook

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Im hearing lots of mixed things on Foster this year. His YPC has been decreasing and if Tate stays healthy this year I just dont know if hes a lock as the #2 pick.

Im picking 4th in a full point PPR, looks like he and Doug will both fall to me.

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Yea the avg drop is a concern, in both rushing and receiving (which was pretty bad - 40 rec and only 200 yards), along with the loads of wear and already being injured this year. But if he's healthy he's still going to see a bunch of touches and TDs. I am inclined to rank him #3 behind Martin - who is perhaps a safer option and has a high floor and high ceiling.

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IF Doug is there at 4 in a PPR i would go with him or Charles or Rice, in that order.

IF Foster is there he is solid and gets TDs and targets but there is a slight risk with him with injuries and loosing touches, although i think the rewards outweighs the risk heavily.

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While the yards per catch is puzzling, Foster did have 29 rushes on goal line situations. 2nd highest was 16. It's certainly understandable that you are going to gain very little yards on goal line runs. Plus, if Foster was declining, he would've showed it towards the end of the season. Instead, he had a 4.7 ypc over his final 5 games (including playoffs). I do have many concerns (high workload, bad right side of o-line, slower Andre Johnson giving defenses more reason to focus on Arian) but this guy has a higher floor than anyone not named Adrian Peterson. There are a lot of exciting players going in round 1, but how many of them have averaged 16 touchdowns per year the last 3 seasons? This isn't a one year thing; he's clearly a touchdown machine. If he can get over this calf injury, I think a healthy Foster does see less work this year, but his ypc rises to offset that. I have him as the #3 rb behind AP and Martin, and slightly ahead of Charles, but it should shock no one if he finishes as the #1 rb. Also, his consistency needs to be admired. He had at least 100 yards or a td in 15 out of 16 games. People will try to poke holes in him but at only 27 years old, I think he still has some tread left.

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There are a lot of exciting players going in round 1, but how many of them have averaged 16 touchdowns per year the last 3 seasons? This isn't a one year thing; he's clearly a touchdown machine.

Numbers based on prior seasons don't matter a whole lot, they have no affect on this season. Sure, they can be a predictor but what happens this season is independent from last year.

Which is it?

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I like Foster and have had him in auction leagues for 3 years running (cool story, brah)

My knock on Foster is that Ben Tate is waiting in a location closer than the wings...

I don't normally care too much about handcuffs, but Tate is a guy you'd have to get if you invest in Foster.

You are spending a top end pick for Foster and it seems it is increasingly likely that he is going to see his workload drop - either by design (Tate) or by nagging injuries (calf) - which means you'd have to overspend to ensure getting Tate.

In most leagues, everyone else sees the upside value in drafting Tate which drives up his ADP.

In Houston, I see potential for a hot hand situation... and that would be with your #1 pick... no thank you.

Foster's ceiling is really good, but it is not as high as it once was and his floor is dropping annually...

Tate has all the upside that Foster has... he just doesn't have the job (yet).

It is also a contract year for Tate... I expect him to perform really well when he has his opportunities.

I agree that Foster is a great player, and that he hasn't played to his floor yet, but my read is that the baton handoff is coming sooner rather than later and that knocks him down a few pegs for me.

It may or may not happen this season, but the signs are evident enough where you have to consider this scenario as a real possibility.

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There are a lot of exciting players going in round 1, but how many of them have averaged 16 touchdowns per year the last 3 seasons? This isn't a one year thing; he's clearly a touchdown machine.

Numbers based on prior seasons don't matter a whole lot, they have no affect on this season. Sure, they can be a predictor but what happens this season is independent from last year.

Which is it?

I appreciate you stalking my posts but you just further prove my point. I did say they can be a predictor. You're argument was based on numbers as a whole, having all wr points compared to all rb points. I'm taking a specific example of a player and showing that if there was reason for decline, he would've shown it at some point. Thanks for not carefully reading what I wrote, it's understandable. Continue stalking.

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I appreciate you stalking my posts but you just further prove my point. I did say they can be a predictor. You're argument was based on numbers as a whole, having all wr points compared to all rb points. I'm taking a specific example of a player and showing that if there was reason for decline, he would've shown it at some point. Thanks for not carefully reading what I wrote, it's understandable. Continue stalking.

The player in question was Calvin Johnson when you made that asinine statement.

I don't know how much more specific I can be about a player/example.

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I appreciate you stalking my posts but you just further prove my point. I did say they can be a predictor. You're argument was based on numbers as a whole, having all wr points compared to all rb points. I'm taking a specific example of a player and showing that if there was reason for decline, he would've shown it at some point. Thanks for not carefully reading what I wrote, it's understandable. Continue stalking.

The player in question was Calvin Johnson when you made that asinine statement.

I don't know how much more specific I can be about a player/example.

There was no specific player you were attempting to set up a whole draft strategy. Going Calvin-Forte is fine with me. Going wr-wr-wr is where I STRONGLY disagree. I made a statement that is factual in my eyes. I continuously win leagues so I have no reason not to believe what I think. Stick to your 10 teamers. If you would prefer to argue, inbox me, these forums are to be specific to their thread title.

So to add in something to Foster to make this Foster relevant, I add that he's got Greg Jones this year and if Andre has indeed lost a step, Foster may be used more in space to try to help move the chains more. Still a stud, there shouldn't be much discussion here. Either you are scared off by the workload and stuff, or you think he's still a stud. Either way could be right, I lean strongly towards the stud side.

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He actually went #1 in my yahoo pro league recently.

It was a shocker.

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From rotoworld:

"The Texans' coaches don't want Arian Foster setting another career high in carries."

"Last year, Foster's efficiency waned (career low 4.05 YPC) as he toted the rock a league-leading 351 times. Part of that ridiculously heavy workload had to do with Ben Tate's inability to stay on the field. Now Tate is coming off a strong offseason, is fully healthy and is entering a contract year. With a strong camp, he'll get 7-9 carries per game. That still leaves plenty of work for Foster in the Texans' run-based offense, but we're expecting something closer to 300 carries."

I'm actually thinking this will be good for Foster. He will be more fresh with Tate there.

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From rotoworld:

"The Texans' coaches don't want Arian Foster setting another career high in carries."

"Last year, Foster's efficiency waned (career low 4.05 YPC) as he toted the rock a league-leading 351 times. Part of that ridiculously heavy workload had to do with Ben Tate's inability to stay on the field. Now Tate is coming off a strong offseason, is fully healthy and is entering a contract year. With a strong camp, he'll get 7-9 carries per game. That still leaves plenty of work for Foster in the Texans' run-based offense, but we're expecting something closer to 300 carries."

I'm actually thinking this will be good for Foster. He will be more fresh with Tate there.

I agree, addition by subtraction. Less totes and more targets. I think that Foster won't have much drop if any if they utilize him more effectively, especially in the passing game. Plus, he will still get the vast majority of goal line carries.

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Here's what I've decided to do about my RB rankings when I'm actually on the clock:

1. AP

2. Martin

3. Roll a 3 sided dice with Foster, Charles and Lynch on it, draft whomever comes up.

The thing I don't like about drafting Foster is that you're forced to draft Tate so early, as soon as he runs over a couple backup defenses in pre-season his ADP will be in the 7th. That's where I want to be taking WR and possibly a QB.

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I'm visualizing a lot of "vent and rant" posts about this guy in teh near future.

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To comment on the original post, I highly doubt that both Foster AND Martin would fall to you at #4. But if they do, I think I would go Martin only because I think he has a better O-line. Having a healthy Nicks and Joseph will be great for him, and he doesn't really have much competition behind him. Don't get me wrong, Foster is a stud (and has the 3rd easiest schedule for a RB) and could easily go 2/3 either way with Martin, I just think I am a little higher on Martin this season. But if neither of them fall to you (which I don't feel they should, but oh well) I would then go Charles in the PPR format.

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While the yards per catch is puzzling, Foster did have 29 rushes on goal line situations. 2nd highest was 16. It's certainly understandable that you are going to gain very little yards on goal line runs. Plus, if Foster was declining, he would've showed it towards the end of the season. Instead, he had a 4.7 ypc over his final 5 games (including playoffs). I do have many concerns (high workload, bad right side of o-line, slower Andre Johnson giving defenses more reason to focus on Arian) but this guy has a higher floor than anyone not named Adrian Peterson. There are a lot of exciting players going in round 1, but how many of them have averaged 16 touchdowns per year the last 3 seasons? This isn't a one year thing; he's clearly a touchdown machine. If he can get over this calf injury, I think a healthy Foster does see less work this year, but his ypc rises to offset that. I have him as the #3 rb behind AP and Martin, and slightly ahead of Charles, but it should shock no one if he finishes as the #1 rb. Also, his consistency needs to be admired. He had at least 100 yards or a td in 15 out of 16 games. People will try to poke holes in him but at only 27 years old, I think he still has some tread left.

A very valid point, that I was gonna bring up. I think some people get too carried away with the drop in YPC.

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I've had this thought for a while, there should be a YPC and an adjusted YPC. One of which removes all TD runs, regardless whether it was for 1 yd or 99.

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While the yards per catch is puzzling, Foster did have 29 rushes on goal line situations. 2nd highest was 16. It's certainly understandable that you are going to gain very little yards on goal line runs. Plus, if Foster was declining, he would've showed it towards the end of the season. Instead, he had a 4.7 ypc over his final 5 games (including playoffs). I do have many concerns (high workload, bad right side of o-line, slower Andre Johnson giving defenses more reason to focus on Arian) but this guy has a higher floor than anyone not named Adrian Peterson. There are a lot of exciting players going in round 1, but how many of them have averaged 16 touchdowns per year the last 3 seasons? This isn't a one year thing; he's clearly a touchdown machine. If he can get over this calf injury, I think a healthy Foster does see less work this year, but his ypc rises to offset that. I have him as the #3 rb behind AP and Martin, and slightly ahead of Charles, but it should shock no one if he finishes as the #1 rb. Also, his consistency needs to be admired. He had at least 100 yards or a td in 15 out of 16 games. People will try to poke holes in him but at only 27 years old, I think he still has some tread left.

I think, for whatever reason, people don't get as excited about Foster cause he's not flashy and doesn't have that "wow" factor like AP or JC, but he just keeps on chugging. Last season there was a lot of pressure on him to stay healthy and stay consistent with Tate nicked up most of the year. If Foster goes down, the Texans season is pretty much scuttled. I really think he was pacing himself throughout the season. The o-line play was also off last season. The line play should improve at least a litte this season and the addition of Hopkins should also help unload the box more. I think Foster will still get around 300 carries/1500 and 50+ receptions. Nothing to see here.

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I've had this thought for a while, there should be a YPC and an adjusted YPC. One of which removes all TD runs, regardless whether it was for 1 yd or 99.

Just whipped up Foster's stats:

All carries: 351car - 1424yds = 4.06ypc

Minus TDs: 336car - 1358yds = 4.04ypc

All TDs: 15car - 66yds = 4.40ypc

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On the PUP list. Looks like this solidifies my thoughts on taking Martin over him and potentially Lynch as well.

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To my knowledge, the same, but they did add top 5 fullback Greg Jones. Most teams don't use a fb more than 30-40% of the time, but this will greatly help Foster as he is about 10 times better than James Casey/whatever else they used at fullback last year.

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To my knowledge, the same, but they did add top 5 fullback Greg Jones. Most teams don't use a fb more than 30-40% of the time, but this will greatly help Foster as he is about 10 times better than James Casey/whatever else they used at fullback last year.

I was under the impression that last year they had some Oline injuries, that would be back in tact this year. Maybe I'm mis-remembering. Can anyone clarify?

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To my knowledge, the same, but they did add top 5 fullback Greg Jones. Most teams don't use a fb more than 30-40% of the time, but this will greatly help Foster as he is about 10 times better than James Casey/whatever else they used at fullback last year.

I was under the impression that last year they had some Oline injuries, that would be back in tact this year. Maybe I'm mis-remembering. Can anyone clarify?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/htx/2012_roster.htm

LT - 15 games started

LG - 15

C - 15

RG - 9 (rookie)

RT - 13

Looks like there was a rotation type of thing at RG, but I don't think it was due to injury. But I don't see any injury issues.

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From what I've read it seems that RT is a real concern? But gotta appreciate that added a real FB again this year.

The Houston Chronicle suggests that poor offensive line play was the main reason for Arian Foster's disappointing 4.1 YPC last season.

Analyst Lance Zierlein concedes that Foster "didn't look as consistently spry." But he goes on to make a sound argument that the line -- especially RT Derek Newton -- failed to secure the edge. When defenders start flowing into the backfield, there's no way Foster can execute the outside zone run successfully. Note that Newton is penciled in as the starting right tackle once again this season, with only Ryan Harris and rookie Brennan Williams to push him

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