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NYR Fan 116894

Drew Brees 2013 Season Outlook

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Didn't see a thread, thought I'd make one for one of the best QB's out there.

The guy is simply a monster. Three 5,000 yard seasons, and he will throw the ball a lot this year as well. A healthy Jimmy Graham should help, and Colston and Sproles are still there too.

I think another 5,000 yard 40+ TD year is in store for Brees, but what do you guys think?

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Is Ron Jaworski really going to rank Joe Flacco above Drew Brees on his QB list? I know the guy just won a Super Bowl, but still. Flacco over Brees? And Matt Ryan over Brees? Am I missing something here?

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Is Ron Jaworski really going to rank Joe Flacco above Drew Brees on his QB list? I know the guy just won a Super Bowl, but still. Flacco over Brees? And Matt Ryan over Brees? Am I missing something here?

Jaws is worse than senile. Frankly in a vacuum both Ryan and Flacco deserve to be WAY lower on his board. They are mental pygmys and ate only in great situations, nothing more. Brees deserves top 3 just outside Peyton and Rodgers.

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Is Ron Jaworski really going to rank Joe Flacco above Drew Brees on his QB list? I know the guy just won a Super Bowl, but still. Flacco over Brees? And Matt Ryan over Brees? Am I missing something here?

Jaws is worse than senile. Frankly in a vacuum both Ryan and Flacco deserve to be WAY lower on his board. They are mental pygmys and ate only in great situations, nothing more. Brees deserves top 3 just outside Peyton and Rodgers.

I used to value his opinion a lot on QBs and would even sometimes make trades based off who he thought would have bounce back years (get them cheap) but I think he's been wrong a lot the past few years so I'm done with his rankings.

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Well, Brees won me a championship last year, so I'm biased, but I think of the Big 3--Brady, Rodgers, Brees--he's the only one virtually locked in for another 40+ TDs. He threw a lot of picks last year and still ended up being the #1 scorer in fantasy. Regardless of all the talk of QB depth and the new running QBs, I know I'll think very hard before passing him up in my TD-heavy league if I don't get the #1 pick (which I would spend on AP).

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Yeah honestly I won't lie, I took Brees in the second round last year in an 8-team league. I'm in a point total league, and honestly there were multiple weeks that I had my boom/bust guys (Julio/Spiller/etc) and because of Brees I stayed in the competition and eventually won the league. This guy, with Payton back at the helm, should have another 5000+/40+ season. All signs continue to point that way and really no reason why he shouldn't. Even if they made improvements on defense, I can't see a huge improvement over dead last. There should be plenty of shootouts for Brees.

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With Sean Payton back, Jimmy Graham in a contract year & a still, suspect defense it will be business as usual for Brees this season. Personally, I'd rank him as the #1 QB going into the season.

QB is super deep this season but Brees is as much as a lock for huge #'s as anyone this year.

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Is Ron Jaworski really going to rank Joe Flacco above Drew Brees on his QB list? I know the guy just won a Super Bowl, but still. Flacco over Brees? And Matt Ryan over Brees? Am I missing something here?

I am a Ravens homer and there is no way Flacco should be over Brees.

And don't even get me started on Matt Ryan. When comparing the best of the best, there is no way a guy without a SB win should be ranked higher than a guy with a SB ring. Matt Ryan is in a dream scenario - offense full of weapons, plays in a dome, in a division with historically poor defense. Any of the top 10 QBs in the league could do what Ryan does IMO.

My only knocks on Brees are I think his numbers get inflated by dome play (and warm weather play in SD). Doesn't Brees also have a similar poor record (as Peyton does) in cold weather games?

Also, while his playoff stats are generally outstanding, he still has no road playoff wins.

But those are relatively minor critiques on Brees.

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QB position has never been this deep but if you're going to reach, he and Rodgers are your guy. Money in the bank...

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Is Ron Jaworski really going to rank Joe Flacco above Drew Brees on his QB list? I know the guy just won a Super Bowl, but still. Flacco over Brees? And Matt Ryan over Brees? Am I missing something here?

I am a Ravens homer and there is no way Flacco should be over Brees.

And don't even get me started on Matt Ryan. When comparing the best of the best, there is no way a guy without a SB win should be ranked higher than a guy with a SB ring. Matt Ryan is in a dream scenario - offense full of weapons, plays in a dome, in a division with historically poor defense. Any of the top 10 QBs in the league could do what Ryan does IMO.

My only knocks on Brees are I think his numbers get inflated by dome play (and warm weather play in SD). Doesn't Brees also have a similar poor record (as Peyton does) in cold weather games?

Also, while his playoff stats are generally outstanding, he still has no road playoff wins.

But those are relatively minor critiques on Brees.

Hate to go off-topic so I'll keep it to this one and only post.... Super Bowl wins don't automatically make you a better QB than someone. Because if that's the case, you're saying Trent Dilfer is better than a lot of very good QBs.

Jump Ball Joe is so overrated due to his SB win.

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Hate to go off-topic so I'll keep it to this one and only post.... Super Bowl wins don't automatically make you a better QB than someone. Because if that's the case, you're saying Trent Dilfer is better than a lot of very good QBs.
No. I said when comparing the best of the best, then you factor in SB wins.
When comparing the best of the best, there is no way a guy without a SB win should be ranked higher than a guy with a SB ring.

So, if Jaws is ranking the top 10 QBs (aka best of the best), there is no way a guy like Ryan can be ranked over Brees, who has a ring. Maybe you should read a little more closely.

Jump Ball Joe is so overrated due to his SB win.

You hate to go off topic - but just couldn't resist huh? Let us know when Romo ties Montana's playoff record or sets his own record like Flacco did (4 straight games with 100+ QB rating - never done before). Or maybe let us know when Romo even wins a single road playoff game. Maybe before he turns 35? 36? Sometime before his $100+M contract runs out?

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it's well accepted that qb this year is its deepest its been in years. a lot of the young guys have a lot if upside, but only Brees and Rodgers give you the confidence of an outstanding, if not dominant performance every week.

I was thinking about taking my chances with a romo or even ryan, but its a gamble trying to time the draft to get one if those guys and not a romo.

especially with the pats hurting ill definitely be targeting brees or Rodgers in the second.

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Compared to 2011, Brees underperformed last season. This could be due to the fact that he had to play the whole year without Sean Payton. With Payton coming back we could see a resurgence in numbers.

While I do agree that QB is especially deep this year, that doesn't mean that the top teir at the position can't still blow everyone else out of the water. If we plug in his 2011 numbers into 2012's QB stats, on a PPG basis his VOR is 7.22. To put that in perspective, Jimmy Graham's VOR (on a PPG basis) was only 6.55 in PPR or 5.10 in standard. That means it's a much smarter decision to take Brees + the #12 best TE than Graham + the #12 best QB. Yet, in PPR, Graham is going 14th overall while Brees is going 33rd. So while Brees is going 1.5 to 2 Rounds later, he's still getting 2/3 of a point per game more than Graham. That kind of value comparable to the position is incredible. Seems like the 33rd pick is a great spot for Brees.

However, this is all contingent upon Brees putting up 2011's numbers again, which I don't think he will. I see him putting up numbers somewhere in between the past 2 years. And if we take the average of the two, he'd still have a VOR of 5.93, which is terrific value after pick 30.

I just really enjoy being a contrarian and I wanted to see if I could talk myself into take a QB in the first 3 rounds. So this was my argument... But also, how many people really see the QB situation being identical to what it was last year? No good QBs were hurt last year (how often does that happen?) - how surprised would you be if Romo, RG3, or Stafford went down this season? Brady lost a lot of weapons this off-season. Kaepernick lost the only guy he ever threw to. One of these new young QBs could be in for a sophomore slump or maybe coaches will start catching on to the run and gun QBs. Brees has been such a blue chip fantasy option his whole career, I don't think anyone can fault you for taking him in the 3rd.

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I think Marcellus Wiley is on the same thing that Ron Jaworski is on. He put Brees at 6 with Ryan at 5. I'm not looking at this from a fantasy perspective either. Brees is better than Ryan in both real life and in fantasy. I just don't see how someone could put Matt Ryan over Drew Brees.

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#1 fantasy QB for me and has been ever since day 1 of the offseason. He and Rodgers could finish within a few points of each other this year but I've never even considered ranking him above Brees.

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This guy had 11 games of 3 or more passing TDs last season....11! In leagues in which you get 6 points per passing TD you're almost guaranteed 18 points from Brees most weeks from the start just on the TDs...not to mention what kind of ridiculous passing yards he throws on top of that.

That kind of consistency is just insane to me. It's also why I don't understand people taking certain RBs and WRs before him, no matter how deep the QB pool is.

A point I made in another topic and I'm just being too lazy to go back and find it is that I don't get how people can let Brees and Rodgers drop especially to that late 2nd/early 3rd round (if not farther than that) because imagine this...

Team 1 who had the first pick drafts AP, and now at pick 20 (ten team) who happens to still be there? Rodgers, or Brees. Now throw in a decent top 10 WR in the next pick or RB for that matter and you've basically gift wrapped the championship to this guy because of that "well I gotta go RB-RB, I can wait and get that value QB later" mindset. Good luck with that when Brees drops 30+ points on you.

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ive owned brees for several years, and his consistency combined with the rare ability to single handedly win you weeks is a reason why he'll be on my team this year, even if I have to take him in the second.

people talk about the depth of qb but all the non brees/rodgers guys have their issues:

stafford - lack of receivers besides megatron was exposed in 2012

rg3 - injury risk + lack of strong receiving corps

kaep - limited receivers, experience

wilson - offense is built around running the ball

luck - lack of experience, new OC

ryan - probably the safest bet to produce elite numbers

brady - drastically fewer receiving options

im not dogging on any of these guys, just pointing out that for all the depth of qb this year, its mostly in potential and nearly all of the options still have some degree of risk. you cant win in fantasy if your qb bombs.. brees and rodgers are the only sure bets to produce week in and week out.

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This guy had 11 games of 3 or more passing TDs last season....11! In leagues in which you get 6 points per passing TD you're almost guaranteed 18 points from Brees most weeks from the start just on the TDs...not to mention what kind of ridiculous passing yards he throws on top of that.

That kind of consistency is just insane to me. It's also why I don't understand people taking certain RBs and WRs before him, no matter how deep the QB pool is.

A point I made in another topic and I'm just being too lazy to go back and find it is that I don't get how people can let Brees and Rodgers drop especially to that late 2nd/early 3rd round (if not farther than that) because imagine this...

Team 1 who had the first pick drafts AP, and now at pick 20 (ten team) who happens to still be there? Rodgers, or Brees. Now throw in a decent top 10 WR in the next pick or RB for that matter and you've basically gift wrapped the championship to this guy because of that "well I gotta go RB-RB, I can wait and get that value QB later" mindset. Good luck with that when Brees drops 30+ points on you.

I was saying the exact same thing to one of my friends in my league. Almost everyone in my league is preaching how QB is so deep and its a waste to take a qb in the first two rounds. Whoever has first pick is gonna have a huge advantage if people really think that. Im not gonna late it happen. If I have a top 4 pick I am taking Brees second round easy.

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This guy had 11 games of 3 or more passing TDs last season....11! In leagues in which you get 6 points per passing TD you're almost guaranteed 18 points from Brees most weeks from the start just on the TDs...not to mention what kind of ridiculous passing yards he throws on top of that.

That kind of consistency is just insane to me. It's also why I don't understand people taking certain RBs and WRs before him, no matter how deep the QB pool is.

A point I made in another topic and I'm just being too lazy to go back and find it is that I don't get how people can let Brees and Rodgers drop especially to that late 2nd/early 3rd round (if not farther than that) because imagine this...

Team 1 who had the first pick drafts AP, and now at pick 20 (ten team) who happens to still be there? Rodgers, or Brees. Now throw in a decent top 10 WR in the next pick or RB for that matter and you've basically gift wrapped the championship to this guy because of that "well I gotta go RB-RB, I can wait and get that value QB later" mindset. Good luck with that when Brees drops 30+ points on you.

I was saying the exact same thing to one of my friends in my league. Almost everyone in my league is preaching how QB is so deep and its a waste to take a qb in the first two rounds. Whoever has first pick is gonna have a huge advantage if people really think that. Im not gonna late it happen. If I have a top 4 pick I am taking Brees second round easy.

I don't even think it has to be just the top picks that benefit from this. If someone is picking mid first or even late first and ends up with Spiller, Lynch, McCoy, Rice, T-Rich perhaps and then takes Brees in the 2nd round I think they have just as much of an advantage because those RBs aren't that far off from the top. You could probably argue why any of the RBs not named AP should be a top 5 consideration for the most part so it's the same point. Elite RB + Brees/Rodgers gives you an advantage at both spots or at least you're close to equal to at RB and have an advantage at QB.

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Perhaps the best part about Brees is that pathetic Saints DEF.

No faith in Rob Ryan's 3.5-3.5 defense? ;)

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ive owned brees for several years, and his consistency combined with the rare ability to single handedly win you weeks is a reason why he'll be on my team this year, even if I have to take him in the second.

people talk about the depth of qb but all the non brees/rodgers guys have their issues:

stafford - lack of receivers besides megatron was exposed in 2012

rg3 - injury risk + lack of strong receiving corps

kaep - limited receivers, experience

wilson - offense is built around running the ball

luck - lack of experience, new OC

ryan - probably the safest bet to produce elite numbers

brady - drastically fewer receiving options

Where is Manning on this list? I am in an 8-man league and hoping to target him with my 3rd round pick. Although I did get Brees early last year and he pretty much carried my team.

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In an 8 team league I wouldn't even consider drafting a QB until the 6th round. I'd want to have 2 RBs, 2 WRs + a flex (or 3rd WR depending on your lineups) before I even looked at the QB pool.

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In an 8 team league I wouldn't even consider drafting a QB until the 6th round. I'd want to have 2 RBs, 2 WRs + a flex (or 3rd WR depending on your lineups) before I even looked at the QB pool.

We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 K, 1 DEF and then 9 bench. I have Spiller and Julio as keepers, and they just go to our 15th/16th round picks. I have the 8th pick as I won last year and plan to get the strongest RB/WR available with the 8/9 picks. If Manning or Brees are still available come my 3rd round pick then I will take one of them to give me a great nucleus of my 5 main players. If they are both gone, I will most likely go with another RB/WR combo and then wait until the 5/6 round picks to get a QB.

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