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elemenohpee

Top 12 picks in 2008

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1st round next year (according to me)

1. Marion

2. Bryant

3. Garnett

4. Nowitzki

5. James

6. Wade

7. Arenas

8. Nash

9. Brand

10. Allen

11. Lewis

12. Ming

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1st round next year (according to me)

1-Marion

2-Garnett

3-Nowitzki

4-Bryant

5-James

6-Wade

7-Nash

8-Brand

9-Arenas

10-Ming

11-Allen

12-Herrmann...lol

other than moving LBJ down, that looks an awful lot like this years top 12....

j-schmoove will be right on the cusp of the top 12 as well...

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This was just a cheap way to open up discussion on next year, and throw out Herrmann's name.

I agree, Smoove would be a decent pick in the end of round 1.

I traded Jack and Head for Smoove when he was injured...boy did that pay off!!!

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I don't have anyone in mind to replace him but I wouldn't put Allen there, but I am sure there are at least a few others.

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I don't have anyone in mind to replace him but I wouldn't put Allen there, but I am sure there are at least a few others.

Consider the fact that Rashard Lewis might not be there next year. Allen put up better numbers than Arenas while Lewis was out.

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i really disagree with josh smith going at the end of the first round. i would love him late second only because he just doesnt score enough or hit 3's. his % arent that great either.

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1. garnett

2. marion

3. dirk

4. kobe

5. LBJ

6. arenas

7. bosh

8. nash

9. wade

10. amare

11. brand

12. yao

some reasoning...

garnett and marion are tied. I'll take KG because i think he'll end up somewhere else. if his situation doesnt look good he could poss drop below dirk. arenas high because he was nuts most of this year. bosh and nash above wade because its possible the heat win again and they take parts of the year off. plus hes as injury prone as bosh and nash, both of which are basically just as good. Amare that high because a month into the season his trade value will be as high as almost anyone and his C eligibility.

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1 - Marion

2 - Garnett

3 - Nowitzki

4 - Bryant

5 - Wade

6 - James

7 - Nash

8 - Brand

9 - Arenas

10 - Ming

11 - Allen

12 - J-SMOOOOOOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I like being very aggressive and ballsy early, but still taking proven performers. This is a roto-only list, H2H would be different:

Marion (if he doesn’t go #1, he is a value pick)

Kobe (nobody to steal his stats)

Garnett (really solid at #3)

Dirk (ditto, great all around numbers)

Nash (MVP IRL and in almost in fantasy too)

LBJ (FT%, wear and tear worry me)

Wade (plays too hard to play 82)

Brand (downside risk here)

Amare (C elig helps, I agree trade him fairly early)

Allen (assuming Rashard leaves town)

Vince (surprise pick, but great all around #s)

Smoove (surprise prediction: both %s increase)

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1. Shawn Marion (Not as good as 05-06 but still worth number 1 pick)

2. Kobe Bryant (I can't believe I'm putting him this high, but he does everything but block shots)

3. Kevin Garnett (Still worthy of a top 5 pick)

4. Dirk Nowitzki (He's 3's are down, but his %'s are why he is this high)

5. Gilbert Arenas (Everybody has A.Z. so low, sure his FG% dived but FT% was top notch and I'll take 30-5-6-2 and 3 threes)

6. Dwyane Wade (If he ever develops his 3-point shot he would be scary, like this 50%-80%-28-5-8-2-1 and 2 threes, number 1 overall)

7. Elton Brand (I fully expect a monster bounce back year from EB, especially with the Clips missing the playoffs this year)

8. LeBron James (He would be ranked higher if he decides not to go on cruise control for the first half of the season)

9. Steve Nash (Nasty Nash needs to steal more, but otherwise his numbers are solid and should be the first pure point taken)

10. Yao Ming (Injury risk will always be a factor, but 25-10 and 86% FT from your center is mint, he should block more for his height though, come on Yao get some hops! He gets only 2 a game)

11. Tim Duncan (20-10-4 with 1 steal and 2.5 blocks is solid, but he can go in the second due to his poor FT%)

12. Amare Stoudemire (20-10, 1 steal, 1.5 blocks and most important, 78% FT% from your center spot)

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I just worked up a spreadsheet using this year's data (season averages, not totals). Of course, there are pitfalls in using this, as it doesn't account for second-half improvements/regression, changes in roles, free agency, etc. Anyway, I got the following results for a standard 9 cat roto league:

1. Shawn Marion

2. Kobe Bryant

3. Kevin Garnett

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Gilbert Arenas

6. Dwyane Wade

7. Marcus Camby

8. Rashard Lewis

9. Ray Allen

10. Elton Brand

11. LeBron James

12. Tim Duncan

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I can't believe everyone is taking marion #1. I thought he was kind of a bust this year.

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I can't believe everyone is taking marion #1. I thought he was kind of a bust this year.

Well, he does everything well except assists, and he's even a very low turnover guy, so basically he only "hurts" you in 1 category but he's above average in everything else. That's obv invaluable in roto.

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I just worked up a spreadsheet using this year's data (season averages, not totals). Of course, there are pitfalls in using this, as it doesn't account for second-half improvements/regression, changes in roles, free agency, etc. Anyway, I got the following results for a standard 9 cat roto league:

1. Shawn Marion

2. Kobe Bryant

3. Kevin Garnett

4. Dirk Nowitzki

5. Gilbert Arenas

6. Dwyane Wade

7. Marcus Camby

8. Rashard Lewis

9. Ray Allen

10. Elton Brand

11. LeBron James

12. Tim Duncan

I like things like that since it takes opinions out of the equation, but when you just do averages it doesn't take into effect that guys like Camby are unlikely to ever play 75+ games which I would definitely want as my first rounder. When he is out there, he is the best defense/rebounding player in fantasy. I can't ever take a guy like him unless they fall way out of the range they are normally taken in. Is there another player in NBA history that has managed to play over a decade having never missed less than 10 games in a season?

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I like things like that since it takes opinions out of the equation, but when you just do averages it doesn't take into effect that guys like Camby are unlikely to ever play 75+ games which I would definitely want as my first rounder. When he is out there, he is the best defense/rebounding player in fantasy. I can't ever take a guy like him unless they fall way out of the range they are normally taken in. Is there another player in NBA history that has managed to play over a decade having never missed less than 10 games in a season?

Oh, without a doubt. I would never take Camby in the first round, maybe late 2nd is the highest I would go for him (although I ended up with him on all 4 of my teams this year, and he did really well, so I may stretch it a bit to mid 2nd).

My rankings process has 2 steps:

1) Run the spreadsheet analysis

2) Re-arrange guys by feeling or intuition (accounting for rise/decline, injury, etc.)

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I can't believe everyone is taking marion #1. I thought he was kind of a bust this year.

Marion was the most valuable player in fantasy basketball for the past 2 seasons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Marion was the most valuable player in fantasy basketball for the past 2 seasons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

more like 3 years now, maybe longer

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i'm gonna mix things up a bit with my top 12...based on H2H

1. Kobe...the ultimate stat whore

2. Marion

3. KG

4. D-Wade....at least based on per game averages, as was said earlier he plays too hard to stay healthy all 82 games

5. Dirk

6. Arenas

7. King James

8. Nash

9. Michael Redd

10. Amare

11. Elton Brand

12. a. Gerald Wallace...depending on what team he ends up on, could be 12 or could fall significantly if he lands in wrong situation

12. b. Tim Duncan...if only he could hit foul shots he'd be top 5, as is 12 or 13 is rock solid

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I am def not making a case for him to be a first round pick or anything but just throwing this out there, where do you think Deng will go in next years draft?

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1. Marion

2. Dirk- Hard to say, I wanna say 1, but you'll think I'm crazy... UNTIL YOU SEE HIS STAT LINES AND HIS GP!

3. KG

4. LBJ

5. D-Wade

6. KB24

7. Nash

8. Ray Allen

9. Gil- I hate this guy..

10. EB- Bounce Back!

11. Amare- Should be a beast next year.

12. Yao Ming- No one mentioned this guy?

On the Edge- AI, Bosh, Pierce, CP3, Melo, McGrady, Josh Smith

Too many Suns, man..

Deng goes late 4th to early 5th, and the owner shouldn't regret it.

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I think I'd rather have Pau than Bosh or Amare. As far as I can tell, there's no FIBA championships or other tournaments in Summer 2007. Gasol's health following such summers has been pretty good (240 games in 3 seasons), and I'd rather have the extra assist and block over Bosh's rebound and 2 points. Not that big on Amare - Barbosa's not going anywhere and even if Diaw doesn't show up there's a good chance they'll be adding a Noah or Horford to the frontcourt.

1. Marion

2. Kobe

3. KG

4. Dirk

5. Lebron

6. Wade

7. Arenas

8. Nash

9. Brand

10. Allen

11. Yao

12. Gasol

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Don't get me wrong I like Gasol fantasy wise, but I would just have a really hard time taking him in the first round.

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Deng is a 3rd-4th rounder, not a 4th-5th rounder.

Also, for H2H, Marion is probably a lot lower than 1st (5th-10th, depending on your league). In H2H, percentage guys aren't as valuable as in roto because there's a ton of fluctuation involved. You could have the equivalent of a 1st place roto FG% team and you would probably only win 2/3 or 3/4 of the time in that category.

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1. Marion

2. Dirk- Hard to say, I wanna say 1, but you'll think I'm crazy... UNTIL YOU SEE HIS STAT LINES AND HIS GP!

3. KG

4. LBJ

5. D-Wade

6. KB24

7. Nash

8. Ray Allen

9. Gil- I hate this guy..

10. EB- Bounce Back!

11. Amare- Should be a beast next year.

12. Yao Ming- No one mentioned this guy?

On the Edge- AI, Bosh, Pierce, CP3, Melo, McGrady, Josh Smith

Too many Suns, man..

Deng goes late 4th to early 5th, and the owner shouldn't regret it.

the way Deng has played this season, and especially in the playoffs so far...he is marginally a late 2nd rounder or 3rd, 4th at worst. all of this based on standard 12 team leagues.

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My top 12

1-Marion (#1 in Roto and H2H)

2-KG (Trip dub threat plus blocks and stls, an occassional 3, high percentage, and multipositions)

3-Kobe (Good across the board except for blocks)

4-Wade (Good across the board except for 3's)

5-LBJ (If FT% improves he's #1)

6-Nash (Best point guard)

7-Arenas (FG% can hurt you, but otherwise great numbers)

8-Brand (Bounce back year, great FT% for big man)

9-Amare (30-10 is a possible in that offense plus great FT% and multiposition)

10-Dirk (Needs to get more blks and/or stls to be rated higher)

11-Yao (23-10-2-great FT% from your C)

12-Tossup b/t AI and Allen*

*I need to see how Allen recovers from his injury first.

Guys that wont be 1st Round for various reasons, but definitely want them on my team:

Baron Davis-Great numbers all around(including occasional blocks), injuries prevent him from being Top 12

Marcus Camby-see Baron Davis

Josh Smith-Percentages bring him down, but great defensive numbers

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