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moped charlie

UNDERVALUED report

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Hey,

Going to start a new thread for the players sliding down drafts that could be good value for us. Appreciate the feedback and thoughts, both positive or negative.

PAUL MILLSAP(4)- Great opportunity for him now at the Hawks and if you get him in the fourth you have done well. One could argue he is much better than Josh Smith who is going in the third. He can fill a stat sheet just as well as Josh and is much better defensively, so he gets plenty of burn that way.

ERSAN ILYASOVA(6)- I understand why he is slipping due to inconsistent play at the beginning of last season. He was one of the most dropped players when he was sent to the bench. The owners who held firm and kept him for the season reaped the rewards for being patient with him. Do not let him slide too far in your draft. This season is much better situation for him now both Jennings and Ellis have left. Sanders and Henson are not good offensive players so he has to be a high usage option now.

THAD YOUNG(6)- Not entirely sold on him because off his poor FT% last season but with the Moultrie news and roster depth at the Sixers he has to be one moving up the boards. Word is he is on the trade block so that dampens his stock somewhat. The Sixers just don't have many options and he will become high usage player, seems too low round six.

TOBAIS HARRIS(7)- It's alittle difficult to get a read on him because there is only a small subset of numbers for you to look at. If Favors is being drafted in the fourth he has to be considered at around the fifth, that is my take on it. Glen Baby Davis will be non factor this season. Word is they are tired of Davis and will deal him as soon as they are able to. The don't want Davis to be a high usage player for them anymore and want to see what their front court prospects can do for them as starters.

AMIR JOHNSON(8)- This was probably one of the best pick ups in the first ten rounds in my draft. I was hoping he fell to me but was not to be. If you can get your head around the points he just does so many other things that help you. So as long as you have high usage and solid production early on you should consider him in the fifth or sixth at least.

winshares

Millsap .154

Ilyasova .159

Young .136

Harris .089

A.Johnson .151

More to follow

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Thanks for this, it's quite interesting.

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In ESPN leagues at least, I'd add Eric Bledsoe and Enes Kanter. ESPN has them ranked in the low 100s!!!!. And probably Derrick Favors as well, who is ranked in the 90s. Drafting with a bunch of first-timers on ESPN makes it easy to grab them at a huge discount.

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Corey Brewer

With Chase Budinger out, the SF spot in Minny comes down to Shabazz and Brewer. I think Shabazz will probably come off the bench and needs some time to adjust to the NBA game. That leaves Brewer with the starting spot in Minny. Last year he got better than average steals and a three a game. He also has the potential to increase his scoring and percentages, with all the playing time he will get.

Darren Collison

Darren Collison thrived as CP3's back up during his rookie year in NOLA (12 pts, 6 ast, 1 stl per game). I excpect him to not only reach that, but to possibly exceed that. If CP3 were to be rested or injured, Collison may be able to step in and thrive (i.e Bledsoe).

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Kobe Bryant - still gunna put up first round value

Andrew Bynum - gunna fall steep, but the gamble will pay off to whoever selected him

Nick Young - d'antoni system

Kevin Love - was arguably a 1st overall before the injury..i see him going back to that this year

Brook Lopez - a second rounder going late in third rounds

Jrue Holiday - being drafted in round 6, should be no more than round 4, with an unlimited ceiling

Kyle Lowry - isn't this the same guy that was putting up 1st round numbers before getting injured? i'm banking on him finally staying healthy.

Enes Kanter

Andre Drummond

Eric Gordon

Joe Johnson

Amare Stoudemire

Anderson Varaejo

Gerald Wallace

Brandon Knight

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That's good guys, throw some name out there. Good work. I will make some comments about these players mentioned soon.

Christian both Bledsoe and Favors are going in the fourth or fifth rounds. If you are drafting in that round and like either of them you should probably take them. You can try and let them slide further but big risk right now because they have been marked up alot.

I will be doing another post once we get through players in the first ten rounds that are undervalued. In that post I want to talk about players being drafted outside of the top ten rounds who really should be among the first hundred picked. Corey Brewer is a name that is moving up lists now and he will definitely be in that post. He was drafted round sixteen, that was before news on Budinger.

I will respond to all these players fully and give my thoughts on them soon. I just wanted to discuss a few others first.

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Thanks for all your input, but I'm curious why you keep bringing up win shares, probably one of the most useless stats ever.

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KAWAI LEONARD(5)- I think this is stealing in this round. When the Spurs moved up to draft him everyone should have taken note, because they just never do that unless it's a can't miss opportunity. I would happily select him as my first forward picked in any draft. Duncan is going to struggle now on back to backs(might not play any of them) which helps him fill out more stat sheets.

KEVIN MARTIN(8)- He is one player I have kept moving up the boards. I got him in the seventh now and that still might be too low with injury news on Budinger. Alot of people still think of him as injury prone but he has improved in that regard because he is no longer the primary option. He will really love playing alongside Rubio(pass first point) and great passing big men Kevin Love. The time has come, everyone needs to reconsider him.

winshares

Leonard .166

Martin .157

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It's no worries ballhard. thanks for your comments. I know win shares is not for everyone. I like to look at them to compare players. They are not really to be used fantasy ball. You can disregard them.

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Your drafts are odd, I seeleonard being drafted top 30 every time how is he falling to 5th?

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Your drafts are odd, I seeleonard being drafted top 30 every time how is he falling to 5th?

The ESPN rankings are ripe for the picking IF you play with guys who don't follow sites like this one or BBM. I did a few public league drafts for fun and you would not believe the rosters I was able to get because everyone goes purely off the rankings and is afraid to "reach" for guys.

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I will make some comments on those players Now I know has mentioned.

Kobe is such a gamer he really wants to be there in game one but there is no timetable still and just not sure the Lakers want to push him so early in the season when it could be much more beneficial to have him primed later on. He is going mid round three.

Bynum stock is in freefall, not many owners want to take the risk.I probably would if my center situation is stacked and he can be my third or fourth option to start the season.

I have not mentioned him in this report yet was getting to him but Brook Lopez is going in the fourth round which seems like a great value pick. Garnett won't play back to backs. My only knock on him is for a player his size he just doesn't get the rebound numbers you might crave for your starting center. Solid pick though in the fourth.

Lowry stock is on the rise and he would be a nice little pick up in round six if you can get him there but it's highly doubtful he gets that low now. Would be really great as your third string guard, solid pick if he falls to you.

Drummond is pretty hyped right now in the fifth mostly. He will get starts at center but the hideous FT% will kill you. Can only be selected that high if you punting FT%. In eight cat it's pretty hard to punt cat's. He won't play much in the fourth quarters which also hinders his stock.

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the first rotoworld mock draft has been posted and they drafted nearly all the guys listed in your op by at least a round or two. It's knowing your league, if you are in a league with experienced fantasy players then it's very hard to sleep on the undervalued as someone out there does value them.

I won't be targeting Bynum in any leagues though would consider Kobe if he fell to the third but someone would take him before that in most the leagues i draft in.

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I get that. What I am saying is some of those players are going too high, just my opinion. If that's where those players are going in 90% drafts then thats where they stay on my mock board, because I want it as realistic as possible even if I do not genuinely believe that player should go there.

I know someone will get Lillard in the second round, because 99 times out 100 thats where he goes probably. I would be in the 1% bracket I guess. If you draft him you still get your value but to me would prefer look elsewhere.

Kobe probably should go higher if someone has the patience early on. He should not be going any lower then the third.

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I get that. What I am saying is some of those players are going too high, just my opinion. If that's where those players are going in 90% drafts then thats where they stay on my mock board, because I want it as realistic as possible even if I do not genuinely believe that player should go there.

I know someone will get Lillard in the second round, because 99 times out 100 thats where he goes probably. I would be in the 1% bracket I guess. If you draft him you still get your value but to me would prefer look elsewhere.

Kobe probably should go higher if someone has the patience early on. He should not be going any lower then the third.

Not true, I would say about 10% of my mocks so far Lillard has been taken 2nd round.

In public drafts, rankings play a huge part in where people are drafting players. Rubio for example is going high 3rd round.

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8 cat, yes. Only 10% thats a surprise. Every league I have seen him in the second round.

Rubio is going second round mostly. In that mock Lillard went first pick in the third so close enough. He is in the top thirty players picked.

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My undervalued list:

- Paul Millsap: I really think he'll return top 15 value.

- Dirk Nowitzki: Borderline first round numbers. Very safe pick mid-late 2nd round.

- Chandler Parsons: Ryan Anderson circa 11-12

- Ty Lawson: Denver going to push tempo even more, and no Iggy. Top 20.

- Wilson Chandler: See above. Can't rely on Foye, Faried and McGee for major offensive production.

- Mike Conley: The quiet achiever. Just gets it done and is perennially underrated.

- Derrick Favors: FTs hurt, but the rest will be big.

- Andre Iguodala: Expecting a rebound year with more 3s and 6+ assists with Curry and Thompson to pass to.

- Marcin Gortat: Will produce big numbers in Phoenix if he doesn't get traded.

- Gordon Hayward: Solid all-round contributor.

- Anderson Varejao: Question marks over Bynum again. Will produce great numbers UNTIL he breaks down.

- Robin Lopez: If JJ Hickson can do it, so can RoLo.

- Spencer Hawes: Has to get 33+ minutes, and will be relied upon to carry the team. Mini-PauGasol.

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This thread is sort of like another Sleepers thread, I think.

That being said, here's who I like:

Marcus Thornton: Not too long ago, he had career averages of:

14.5, 1.6 threes, 45% G, 81.4 FT%

21.3 PTS 2.0 threes, 3.4 assists, 1.7 steals

18.7 pts, 2.1 threes, 1.4 steals

Last year was terrible.

12.7 points, 2.0 threes 0.8 threes

But read between the lines and you'll see that his low performance was due to a lack of minutes and not performance. Keith Smart does that. Well. There is no Keith Smart. And although Ben Mclemore is seriously talented, I don't picture Marcus rolling the red carpet. I think he's going to produce much better than last season. Heck, even if he just has 2 more points this season...That's an improvement. I'm predicting 15 ish points at the very least.

SGs and SFs are thin this year. Most SGs and SFs are either a bit too old or are stacked on another team. Heck...we lost three because Terry, Paul Pierce and Joe Johnson are on the same damn team. So Thornton should pay dividends. He'll get way better numbers for sure and he's one of very SGs available.

Jose Calderon - He may have a pretty good chance of leading the league in assists this year. This is the best team he's been on. Instead of passing to Bargnani, he's now passing to Dirk Nowitzki. He can also dish the ball to Marion, Carter, Ellis, Blair, etc.

Favors - It's been mentioned before but this is the year. I'm expecting Marc Gasol numbers.

Eric Gordon (ROTO LEAGUE only) - I'm the only one who believes in this guy but I've got a feeling I'll have the last laugh. He's worth only a stash in Roto leagues.

Gortat- I'm big on this guy too. Contract year. He knows it. There's no Jermaine O Neal, no Scola, no Beasley (black hole). He's just competing with Alex Len..who is a rookie and is already having fracture issues as well as Frye (who was out for a while). Keep in mind that last year Gortat was just mopey and unhappy about a lot of things but now he has desire and drive. He'll either play hard to get an extension or play hard to get the F out of Phoenix and show everyone he's still around.

Burke: I really, really like this kid. The ONLY Pg in Utah. If you're in a keeper league, he's been compared to Kemba Walker but with superior shooting and FG%, Jameer Nelson at prime, a poor man's CP3. He won't be Irving or CP3 or anything of the sort but historically..PGs with no competition tend to thrive.

Nene: I think he'll have a great year.

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I'm not as high on Jose. He plays no D and can only make basic plays. Vince and Ellis are guys who can start off with the ball in their hands and make plays themselves.

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Some more nice contributions in here. Thanks.

Dirk to me is a real solid second round pick, safe bet for anyone there who does not want a guard in that round. I have noticed though he has been going abit later recently, round four some leagues which is real steal material. If you want to target more guards he might be there a round or two later than you think, keep an eye on if there is run of guards or centers going he might slide.

Jose will be ok, with all these options around him he doesn't have to push too much for his own shot and I agree he could very well lead the league or close to top in assists. Because he won't have to shoot so much his FG% should hold up probably not 49%, his career is 48% so hopeful, that combined with his threes plus dimes, pretty good addition for anyone in round five. I had hoped to get him as my fourth guard but just missed out.

I got Hawes in round eight and was pretty happy about it. He won't be going in that round too much anymore with all these injuries in front court, Moultrie and Allen both dinged up. I think he drops low obviously because of team he plays for and fact he does not or has not shown nice numbers for sexy points cat's. He only started 40 games last season with 12.2/8.4/2.9. His FT numbers are great for a center. Good second center oprtion, well worth owning and fast becoming a target to be first center option with his move up the boards.

Thornton I believe will be pretty good source of production this season and so cheap as well. I got him in round thirteen and seen him taken as high as seventh round. Thats too high but indication of whats to come maybe. With the coaching change and McLemore as motivation it should be good for him and there is every chance if he plays well enough to find a new home so his value could spike again at the trade deadline.

I want to write up on a few more players I have not mentioned yet soon.

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The next three players I wanted to add.

B.LOPEZ(5)- Seems to be good value as first choice center in the fifth. He does not grab the boards you want for your starting center but with Humphries/Wallace gone and Garnett not playing back to backs he can only improve in this regard. He is great source for blocks and percentages will never hurt you.

D.WEST(7)- Because he is older now and with the addition of Scola he is sliding down the boards. If you are not keen on Amir as your glue man and want better points production look no further. He is a great second forward for any squad. The only cat he hurts you is threes and you can fill that out later in the draft.

D.GREEN(9)- Speaking of threes. Would you like the world record holder for most threes in an NBA final series on your roster? In this slot it's a very shrewd investment. Ginobili will never hurt his minutes and the backup Neal is now in Milwaukee.

win shares

B.Lopez .191

D.West .179

D.Green .128

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Here's my list in no particular order:

Kyle Korver- He will still be starting this year either at the 2 or 3 and I think you get more of the same from him, and maybe even better with Smith out of the picture.

Enes Kanter- There's such a small sampling size of statistics on him that he's is going way to late in drafts imo. I think he's going to shatter his draft spot. However, that's if you draft him now. I think as the preseason gets going good, his name will come up more and he'll rise up the ranks.

Markieff Morris- Fast tempo offense and no Scola make him a great PF to pick up. I've been able to get him in the second to last or last round in drafts.

Jimmy Butler- Seems like a poor man's Kahwi to me. A fully healthy roster with Rose only helps him imo.

Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett- Sure they won't be relied on as much, Garnett may sit during back-to-backs, and Joe Johnson is suppose to be the closer, but I think both vets will be more valuable than where I've seen them drafted.

J. J. Redick- Simply stated, Paul makes everyone better. Redick will have one of his best years ever even with the presence of Jamal Crawford.

O. J. Mayo- will be the man in Milwaukee and probably put up the numbers he was putting up pre-Dirk all year.

JaVale McGee- This is the year! I feel it strongly. FT% will not be great, but he will be overall. I seriously think he's gonna lead the league in blocks. I mean he averaged 2.0 last year in only 18 min.

I'll probably add some more later...

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I like Morris, Butler, KG and Redick as well.

I have Morris in round eight in my mocks, he went round ten. Probably too high but I have kept adjusting it to the point where he just can't be the last round lol

I had a choice in round twelve to either get Redick or Jack. I went with Jack because I needed the dimes. I got Curry and a few others for good source of threes so it suited at the time but definitely if my draft was different would have picked Redick.

Once again I had choice in round nine. Do I gamble my season away on injury prone names Varejao or Bynum? Or do I be a micro manager and get KG? The choice was simple. Even with him not on back to back he still out produce them two probably. I think being a KG owner will keep me sharp as well during the season, to plug him into the lineup when it suits, forward/center eligibility nice.

Butler is one of them ones that could go a round higher. In the sixth and seventh round it gets alittle bit murky and there is alot of bad selections around this time. I think the trick with it is to push all the younger starters such as Butler and Kanter up in your mock and let the older, injury prone ones fall lower to someone else.

I was thinking yesterday actually I have a feeling that Kanter will out perform all of his Jazz team mates. I think the general consensus is Favors, Hayward, Burke and then Kanter but it could so easily flipped on it's head because everyone is looking at small subsets.

I just can't draft McGee, can't get my head around the FT%. No doubt he is the main man in the middle now, hope Shaw gets the best out of him and he has matured alittle bit. He has all world talent and well and truly sort out your blocks. I just have not figured out a way to carry these bad FT% players without punting and in eight cat it's just difficult to give up on a cat.

I like Ilyasova alot more than Mayo, simply because they are being drafted in virtually the same slot, just don't think thats right. I would have no problem drafting Mayo abit later or if I missed out getting Ersan though. He needs those big minutes which he should get on that roster.

Korver is moving down the boards. I think to begin with he will be a great source but as the season goes on and he gets his fitness back Lou Williams could be a problem for him. But for where Korver is being drafted you can't really go wrong too much.

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