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jb_power

Xander Bogaerts 2014 Outlook

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Xander didn't get much of shot after his late August callup. What's his outlook for 2014?

I guess that all depends on what happens to Stephen Drew this offseason. If the Sox resign Drew I would think Bogaerts will head back to AAA for more seasoning.

His 2013 numbers accumulated across AA, AAA and MLB were

134 games

565 plate appearances

488 ABs

143 hits

25 2B

6 3B

16 HR

77 Runs

72 RBI

.293 average

.447 slugging

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I don't think they'll re-sign Drew. He was always considered a placeholder until Bogaerts was deemed ready. Looks ready to me.

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Bogaerts more than likely gets the starting gig. Everything looked fine to me in his brief MLB stint. Few moments where his inexperience got him, but kid's a fast learner. All systems go.

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Bogs will be the man. Theres nothing left for him to do in AAA.

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The Red Sox will have some interesting decisions. I'm not sure they want to pay Drew what he'll want coming off a great season and considering his injury history, but one thing is for sure that Bogaerts will be starting next year. It is a question of where. The Red Sox do have some options. They could let Napoli walk and push Middlebrooks to 1st, re-sign Drew and then move Bogaerts to 3rd. That's probably plan B, plan A is likely use Bogaerts at SS, leave Middlebrooks at 3b (and replace him with Garin Cecchini if WM flops again), and either re-sign Napoli, use a stupid Carp/Nava platoon, or make some sort of splash at 1b.

Back to Bogaerts though, he's a star in the making. He really battled in his limited playoff at bats, drawing 2 big walks in the Rays series and working the count to 3-2 before eventually popping up in game 1 vs Detroit. I say that was big because as a 20 year old you would normally be thinking that this is your time to shine, be a hero and tie the game. Instead he continued to show great poise and patience. His hitting eye is going to lead to pitchers having to pitch to him, and as his power grows and grows he will crush those mistakes. I'm not sure what to make of him for next year, but this is certainly a guy to take a shot on because he could hit .280 with 15-20 homers right away. We'll probably have a better read on this situation come February, and I can come back with some better analysis then, but that's my take on him as of now.

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The Red Sox will have some interesting decisions. I'm not sure they want to pay Drew what he'll want coming off a great season and considering his injury history, but one thing is for sure that Bogaerts will be starting next year. It is a question of where. The Red Sox do have some options. They could let Napoli walk and push Middlebrooks to 1st, re-sign Drew and then move Bogaerts to 3rd. That's probably plan B, plan A is likely use Bogaerts at SS, leave Middlebrooks at 3b (and replace him with Garin Cecchini if WM flops again), and either re-sign Napoli, use a stupid Carp/Nava platoon, or make some sort of splash at 1b.

Back to Bogaerts though, he's a star in the making. He really battled in his limited playoff at bats, drawing 2 big walks in the Rays series and working the count to 3-2 before eventually popping up in game 1 vs Detroit. I say that was big because as a 20 year old you would normally be thinking that this is your time to shine, be a hero and tie the game. Instead he continued to show great poise and patience. His hitting eye is going to lead to pitchers having to pitch to him, and as his power grows and grows he will crush those mistakes. I'm not sure what to make of him for next year, but this is certainly a guy to take a shot on because he could hit .280 with 15-20 homers right away. We'll probably have a better read on this situation come February, and I can come back with some better analysis then, but that's my take on him as of now.

In my league for 2014, Xander is actually 3B eligible not SS because he didnt get to 20 at either spot and played 3B more than SS. Obivously if he is the SS moving forward in 2014, it wont matter he will instantly get eligibility, but if he isnt the everyday SS, having him tie up a 3B spot instead of SS sort of stinks.

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. That's probably plan B, plan A is likely use Bogaerts at SS, leave Middlebrooks at 3b (and replace him with Garin Cecchini if WM flops again), and either re-sign Napoli, use a stupid Carp/Nava platoon, or make some sort of splash at 1b.

Updating myself, this is what I get for trying to write a post without my bosses seeing. Brain froze on that one, as neither can really hit lefties, so someone else would be a part of that platoon, but you get the idea.

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True Bogs may not be the SS. A lot does depend on what they do with Napoli and Drew. Either way he will be starting somewhere.

I grabbed him as a free agent because in my league you can keep a FA, but you have to start his price at what ESPN sets for him opening up the year. Crossing my fingers its low being he barely played.

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The Red Sox will have some interesting decisions. I'm not sure they want to pay Drew what he'll want coming off a great season and considering his injury history, but one thing is for sure that Bogaerts will be starting next year. It is a question of where. The Red Sox do have some options. They could let Napoli walk and push Middlebrooks to 1st, re-sign Drew and then move Bogaerts to 3rd. That's probably plan B, plan A is likely use Bogaerts at SS, leave Middlebrooks at 3b (and replace him with Garin Cecchini if WM flops again), and either re-sign Napoli, use a stupid Carp/Nava platoon, or make some sort of splash at 1b.

Back to Bogaerts though, he's a star in the making. He really battled in his limited playoff at bats, drawing 2 big walks in the Rays series and working the count to 3-2 before eventually popping up in game 1 vs Detroit. I say that was big because as a 20 year old you would normally be thinking that this is your time to shine, be a hero and tie the game. Instead he continued to show great poise and patience. His hitting eye is going to lead to pitchers having to pitch to him, and as his power grows and grows he will crush those mistakes. I'm not sure what to make of him for next year, but this is certainly a guy to take a shot on because he could hit .280 with 15-20 homers right away. We'll probably have a better read on this situation come February, and I can come back with some better analysis then, but that's my take on him as of now.

Great post. And I do think the Sox let Napoli walk....as I firmly believe the 'splash' that you're talking about is Jose Abreu.

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His plate discipline is pretty special. Dude wasn't even thinking of offering at those slide pieces Scherzer was throwing. I mean, he wasn't even flinching. Guys like Pedroia were really having difficulty laying off Scherzer's breaking balls. Scherzer was pitching Bogaerts as tough as any hitter in that lineup. As incredibly annoying as the Red Sox fans are (Chicks wearing pink beards, come the f**k on!!!), I have to admit it's hard not to be impressed with Bogaerts.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, October 27, 2013 - No reason given · Report post

What type of upside are we looking at?

Can keep up to 6 guys, and for life. Is his upside like elite fantasy talent round 1/2 guy? Or is he just a solid average guy with modest pop?

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What's his fantasy upside?

In a few years or for strictly 2014? For 2014.....similar to Jed Lowrie. May crack 20 HR. In a few years? Troy Tulowitzki.

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I really hope the hype can stay down on this kid by the time drafts come. He will be a very solid fantasy SS this year especially on that team in that lineup. Might not have overall gaudy numbers, but as a SS he will be very quality and help teams win championships especially if his ADP stays low.

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Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Drew. Could be bad news for Bogaerts' value. Even if he plays every day, he's much more valuable at SS than he would be at 3B.

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Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Drew. Could be bad news for Bogaerts' value. Even if he plays every day, he's much more valuable at SS than he would be at 3B.

Strange move by the Sox. If they wind up resigning Drew, that means that between Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Cecchini two of them will soon be traded.

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From the Providence Journal:

"Like Ellsbury and Napoli, Drew is unlikely to accept the qualifying offer, even if it does represent a significant raise from the $9.5 million he made in 2013. The logic behind signing his initial one-year deal with the Red Sox was to rebuild his value and hit the market for a longer-term contract this winter.

If Drew declines the qualifying offer, the presence of Bogaerts would make the Red Sox less inclined to pursue him than Napoli on the open market. Nevertheless, that emphasis on depth means Boston wouldn't rule out bringing Drew back into a left side of the infield that still includes Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks in 2014.

"We're just looking to be as strong as possible throughout the roster," Cherington said. "Just because we have a young player who we really believe in doesn't mean that we wouldn't be interested in adding to a particular area."

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Also remember the Marlins have expressed interest in Middlebrooks. The only player of the three the Sox are totally commited to is Xander. If Middlebrooks is moved (highly unlikely but I'm sure the Sox are willing to entertain offers from Miami) then Drew might be pursued as a filler until Cecchini is ready. Or if Napoli isn't re-signed, Middlebrooks may move to 1st. At the very least, qualifying offers not accepted mean an extra draft pick. Which is probably the main reason for the offer to start with.

Sox just seem to want to keep all their options open which is what most teams do. But bottom line is Xander WILL be a starting every day player with the Sox next year as long as he stays healthy and injury free. Whether at 3B or SS is the only question remaining.

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