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JJ954

Justin Smoak 2014 Outlook

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He looked to finally put together a nice half after coming back up for AAA and may be a dark horse for the 2014 season. As Smoak is coming off his best season ever as a major leaguer, hitting .238 with 20 homers for the M’s in 2013.

None of those numbers are very sexy, with a possible exception of that 20-homer season for the first time in his career. Clearly there is still plenty of improvement needed if Smoak is finally going to break out.

Despite the risk of a big-money deal and mediocrity at the plate, a switch-hitting, lefty-throwing first baseman who shows the potential to hit for a lot of power is a very strong aphrodisiac.

The question is: Will he?

I say yes. The 2014 season is when Smoak finally puts it together. He’ll cut down on the strikeouts and hit at least .275 with 30 Homers. He’ll also break the 100 RBI total for the first time in his career. You heard it here first.

Whats your guys thoughts?

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The consistency has never been there. He's always shown flashes, and this year it looked like he had finally figured things out for a time. But it turned out to be nothing more than a tease, which is basically what his career has been so far.

Not a believer.

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Can seeing him putting up 20Hrs with a fairly empty average, and if he's hitting 6th or 7th in that lineup, I wouldn't be looking at him as anything more than a backup filler.

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I see him as a borderline sleeper. He'll probably have that .270 30 HR season one of these years. But I wouldn't take him any higher than the last rounds for 2014 - he could too easily be on the waiver wire by the 3rd week or sooner. Even the hitting deficient and poorly run Mariners will lose patience fairly soon if he doesn't start living up to his potential, especially if their young pitchers develop quickly.

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The power is there but the consistency is not. Very late round deep sleeper if at all. I guess it depends on size of league. I don't think there is much to suggest he will ever hit for a decent average.

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To me, he is on the outside looking in of the "do not draft" line. My league, the number of 1B that go are in the high 20's, I just dont see it for him and thats even with some guys not being 1B eligible this year (like Butler and Cuddyer).

I think one of the things with Smoak, he was a very high rated prospect, but he never had great minor league power, I think a lot of folks just assumed it would eventually come, especially playing in Arlington, then he got traded to a tough HR hitters park and the average has usually stunk so he just hasnt been worth it.

So what 1B do you have him ranked higher than or take him over?

Ruf, Lind, LoMo, Morneau, Alonso, Carter, Moreland, Jones

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To me, he is on the outside looking in of the "do not draft" line. My league, the number of 1B that go are in the high 20's, I just dont see it for him and thats even with some guys not being 1B eligible this year (like Butler and Cuddyer).

I think one of the things with Smoak, he was a very high rated prospect, but he never had great minor league power, I think a lot of folks just assumed it would eventually come, especially playing in Arlington, then he got traded to a tough HR hitters park and the average has usually stunk so he just hasnt been worth it.

So what 1B do you have him ranked higher than or take him over?

Ruf, Lind, LoMo, Morneau, Alonso, Carter, Moreland, Jones

I would take him over Garret Jones and Lind, and maybe Ruf not sure on his numbers yet if they are legit. Lomo and Smoak I see as a wash, but im anxious to see next year

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To me, he is on the outside looking in of the "do not draft" line. My league, the number of 1B that go are in the high 20's, I just dont see it for him and thats even with some guys not being 1B eligible this year (like Butler and Cuddyer).

I think one of the things with Smoak, he was a very high rated prospect, but he never had great minor league power, I think a lot of folks just assumed it would eventually come, especially playing in Arlington, then he got traded to a tough HR hitters park and the average has usually stunk so he just hasnt been worth it.

So what 1B do you have him ranked higher than or take him over?

Ruf, Lind, LoMo, Morneau, Alonso, Carter, Moreland, Jones

I would take him over Garret Jones and Lind, and maybe Ruf not sure on his numbers yet if they are legit. Lomo and Smoak I see as a wash, but im anxious to see next year

Would not take Smoak over Lind. Both are 20 Homer guys, Lind has higher BA potential, and I like his Run production Potential better...

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I'm shocked to see absolutely ZERO buzz or even a single post for this guy for the past 6 months..

Here's what I just did; and yes people might think I'm crazy. I scooped Smoak off the wire, over guys like Aoki, Tori Hunter, Castellanous, Morneau, etc..

This is my reasoning..

-He had a career year last year, albeit still fairly disappointing. BUT i'm in an OBP league, and that .330 OBP isn't god awful by any stretch.

-This guy had the pedigree (albeit years ago). In the minors he was basically a BB/K guy. He's turning 27 now and coming off his est year

-He's hitting cleanup is what I've heard. Not only that he's got Cano and Miller in front of him. Those 20 HRs for a mere 50 RBIs last year should go up quite a bit with good OBP guys in front.

-He's having a nice spring hitting north of .300. Not only that half his hits have gone for extra bases. And my favourite stat is his 8 BBs to 10 Ks. Last spring he had a redonkulous ST but still had 3 times as many Ks as BBs. Maybe he's learning that minor league patience now?

Basically though, he's starting the year in cleanup spot with some better players ahead of him in that lineup that will be getting on base. This means better pitches for Smoak. I just see so much more upside with this kid than going with some of the names I listed above. He's entering prime age years, might as well roll the dice.

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Quite frankly it sounds like you talked yourself into him. I mean, 8BB/10K in ST means he finally found his MILB patience from like 6 years ago lol?

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Quite frankly it sounds like you talked yourself into him. I mean, 8BB/10K in ST means he finally found his MILB patience from like 6 years ago lol?

all i said was it was my fav stat of spring, and MAYBE he's LEARNING more patience. it's not like he didn't walk 65 times last year in 450 ABs...

i also clearly listed several other reasons, but nice counter argument.

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I'm shocked to see absolutely ZERO buzz or even a single post for this guy for the past 6 months..

Here's what I just did; and yes people might think I'm crazy. I scooped Smoak off the wire, over guys like Aoki, Tori Hunter, Castellanous, Morneau, etc..

This is my reasoning..

-He had a career year last year, albeit still fairly disappointing. BUT i'm in an OBP league, and that .330 OBP isn't god awful by any stretch.

-This guy had the pedigree (albeit years ago). In the minors he was basically a BB/K guy. He's turning 27 now and coming off his est year

-He's hitting cleanup is what I've heard. Not only that he's got Cano and Miller in front of him. Those 20 HRs for a mere 50 RBIs last year should go up quite a bit with good OBP guys in front.

-He's having a nice spring hitting north of .300. Not only that half his hits have gone for extra bases. And my favourite stat is his 8 BBs to 10 Ks. Last spring he had a redonkulous ST but still had 3 times as many Ks as BBs. Maybe he's learning that minor league patience now?

Basically though, he's starting the year in cleanup spot with some better players ahead of him in that lineup that will be getting on base. This means better pitches for Smoak. I just see so much more upside with this kid than going with some of the names I listed above. He's entering prime age years, might as well roll the dice.

I'd take all of those guys before Smoak with the possible exception of Morneau who I think is done. They'll give the cleanup spot to Seager or Corey Hart if he can get healthy.

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I'm shocked to see absolutely ZERO buzz or even a single post for this guy for the past 6 months..

Here's what I just did; and yes people might think I'm crazy. I scooped Smoak off the wire, over guys like Aoki, Tori Hunter, Castellanous, Morneau, etc..

This is my reasoning..

-He had a career year last year, albeit still fairly disappointing. BUT i'm in an OBP league, and that .330 OBP isn't god awful by any stretch.

-This guy had the pedigree (albeit years ago). In the minors he was basically a BB/K guy. He's turning 27 now and coming off his est year

-He's hitting cleanup is what I've heard. Not only that he's got Cano and Miller in front of him. Those 20 HRs for a mere 50 RBIs last year should go up quite a bit with good OBP guys in front.

-He's having a nice spring hitting north of .300. Not only that half his hits have gone for extra bases. And my favourite stat is his 8 BBs to 10 Ks. Last spring he had a redonkulous ST but still had 3 times as many Ks as BBs. Maybe he's learning that minor league patience now?

Basically though, he's starting the year in cleanup spot with some better players ahead of him in that lineup that will be getting on base. This means better pitches for Smoak. I just see so much more upside with this kid than going with some of the names I listed above. He's entering prime age years, might as well roll the dice.

I'd take all of those guys before Smoak with the possible exception of Morneau who I think is done. They'll give the cleanup spot to Seager or Corey Hart if he can get healthy.

I think those guys have a better chance of having solid years, but my team is filled with potential speed/OBP guys (eaton, fowler, gardner, etc) so another middling 20 SB guy with not much else aside from OBP wasn't worth it for me. Tori Hunter is just declining and declining. You can find that production on the wire most likely. I just think Smoak has a higher payoff, and for my teams skillset, but we'll see!

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Quite frankly it sounds like you talked yourself into him. I mean, 8BB/10K in ST means he finally found his MILB patience from like 6 years ago lol?

all i said was it was my fav stat of spring, and MAYBE he's LEARNING more patience. it's not like he didn't walk 65 times last year in 450 ABs...

i also clearly listed several other reasons, but nice counter argument.

Well your other points were that: 1. His career year was still a disappointment. 2. He had pedigree years ago and now he's 27. 3. He might hit cleanup.

Just making an observation. You wanted posts in this guy's thread right? :ph34r:

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^ Torii Hunter will decline ... eventually ... but he still put together a better year at the age of 37 in 2013 than Justin Smoak will possibly ever have in his career.

Hunter put up 17 HRs, 90 runs, 84 RBI and a .304 average last year ... but if you think Justin fits your team better ... well that's obviously your decision

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Quite frankly it sounds like you talked yourself into him. I mean, 8BB/10K in ST means he finally found his MILB patience from like 6 years ago lol?

all i said was it was my fav stat of spring, and MAYBE he's LEARNING more patience. it's not like he didn't walk 65 times last year in 450 ABs...

i also clearly listed several other reasons, but nice counter argument.

Well your other points were that: 1. His career year was still a disappointment. 2. He had pedigree years ago and now he's 27. 3. He might hit cleanup.

Just making an observation. You wanted posts in this guy's thread right? :ph34r:

a politician, you sound like [/yoda]

you take his OBP and power last year i'll take those over a full season this year right now. that's OBP of .335 and 25 jacks. i'm saying THIS year his other surrounding counting stats should be much higher with the new lineup (more ribis) and better pitch selection with men on base. that's me using JUST last year's stats. now i'm banking on growth in age 27 year (have you heard of that year before?). I don't think I'm being too unreasonable here with small growth. in AVG leagues, maybe i can see why i still wouldn't take a flyer on him. but OBP i feel it's justified.

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^ Torii Hunter will decline ... eventually ... but he still put together a better year at the age of 37 in 2013 than Justin Smoak will possibly ever have in his career.

Hunter put up 17 HRs, 90 runs, 84 RBI and a .304 average last year ... but if you think Justin fits your team better ... well that's obviously your decision

well in an OBP league, that fancy .304 average doesn't mean as much (obv nice for ribis though). they both had the same OBP last year. Smoak had more HRs in 150 less ABs. Tori plays in a much stronger offensive lineup. I think your opening statement is a bit much. Maybe if all you value is a BA.

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Nice tout Miggy...he's worth a shot at least, I just scooped him up after that shot. Seems you're right about him getting better pitches to hit, also not sure how they're using Hart yet.

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I wouldn't fall for it. But if you are in a deeper league it may be worth seeing if he has a post hype breakout. But I have seen this guy show glimpses so many times and then go right back to sucking. One HR vs. the awful Kevin Jepsen isn't going to make me into a believer all of a sudden. I still think he is a longshot to ever be worthwhile in most fantasy formats.

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Haha fair enough...you guys know more about this guy and his career than me.

Just trust me that it is a deep league and that the scrub i dropped for him probably isn't even worth a mention.

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Posted · Hidden by The Harsh, April 1, 2014 - No reason given · Report post

I wouldn't fall for it. But if you are in a deeper league it may be worth seeing if he has a post hype breakout. But I have seen this guy show glimpses so many times and then go right back to sucking. One HR vs. the awful Kevin Jepsen isn't going to make me into a believer all of a sudden. I still think he is a longshot to ever be worthwhile in most fantasy formats.

Guys like Jepsen are the pitching equivalent to girls who are complete sluts in college. They're the ones you have to get your baseline numbers off of.

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meh dropped Moustakas for him...

kinda reminds me of Chris Davis. i mean, NO ONE believed in him early last season but look what happened. Smoak could be another late bloomer who knows...

good stuff Miggy ^

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I wouldn't fall for it. But if you are in a deeper league it may be worth seeing if he has a post hype breakout. But I have seen this guy show glimpses so many times and then go right back to sucking. One HR vs. the awful Kevin Jepsen isn't going to make me into a believer all of a sudden. I still think he is a longshot to ever be worthwhile in most fantasy formats.

he also ripped a double off Weaver, and worked a 2-2 count vs Weaver into walk.

i mean even if he replicates last year's stats again, but with higher counting stats given a better lineup around him (his 3-run HR tonight never happens last year, with 2 outs B Miller and Cano reached). and tack on 30 more games, you've got yourself a pretty decent player in OBP leagues anyway. Then you factor in better pitch selection this year and age 27, I dunno. There are lots of worse flyers imo.

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meh dropped Moustakas for him...

kinda reminds me of Chris Davis. i mean, NO ONE believed in him early last season but look what happened. Smoak could be another late bloomer who knows...

good stuff Miggy ^

Davis had shown a lot more than Smoak had prior to his bust out last year. Smoak has literally shown absolutely nothing in over 1700 MLB at bats. Davis had a .550 slugging in his first go around the bigs. Texas barely gave him 800 at bats before giving up on him, and a lot of those at bats were in random platoon at bats. Baltimore was smart and bought low and gave him everyday at bats.

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