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96mnc

Tim Lincecum 2014 Outlook

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Resigned by the Giants today to a two year 35m contract.

Seemed to perform better in the second half of the season but will probably be a whip killer going forward. The era should be decent and the Ks will still be there.

A good deal for both sides. Reportedly, the Giants were going to offer him the one year 14m tender offer if they didn't work out a deal. If Timmy cab continue to refine his new approach he can get a better deal when he's a free agent again at age 29.

I'm curious as to what he would have commanded on the open market (3/40 maybe) but that's a moot point now.

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huge waste of money. how can a guy with an era of 4.50 the last two years get this kind of money. baseball is a joke with how much they pay people.

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Its an overpay, but thats what the Giants do. I would of assumed a 2-year deal more in the 25 range, with maybe 28 just to "get it done", 35 is ridiculous.

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Yikes, 2/35 coming off the two years he just had is an absolutely brutal deal. Has to be a bit of a panic move given how little MLB ready starting pitching there is in the Giants system. Crick has big-time command issues, Stratton is probably a year or two away and was uninspiring in A ball, Kickham looked atrocious last season in his time up in the bigs. Have to wonder if he would've gotten even 2/25 from any other team except the Giants.

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I don't know. I think the Giants have some viable SP options moving forward. Crick isn't ready yet, but their High-A team was stacked with starters.

Between Crick, Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn, Adalberto Mejia, and Edwin Escobar (who also was in AA last year) I'd say their farm system still has some of the best pitching prospects around. I would think that at least two of those guys will pan out.

I would have let Lincecum walk if that's the money he thinks he's worth and taken my chances with cheaper and younger home-grown talent.

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You'd think after Barry Zito the Giants would be tired of paying $17.5 million-plus per year to a starter who puts up a high-4s ERA. Guess they've grown attached to that situation.

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yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

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This deal is....well....not a good one. For the Giants that is. If Lincecum can bounce back and throw well, they're still paying for it, and not at a discounted price. I can't imagine that the market for him would have been ANYWHERE near that price.

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yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?

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yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?

well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.

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This is an interesting situation to me because it seemed a no-brainer to let this guy go. Usually when teams let stars go it's because they know from seeing them everyday that they're toast. Pujols, Hamilton, etc.

I do wonder why they'd re-sign him to this deal. Maybe they're just dumb. Very possible. Maybe they think he can still pitch if he gets his mind right or something like that?

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yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?

well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.

One thing I read in some of the Lincecum articles was that he had bad luck when it came to runners he left for his relievers, that they scored at a 20% rate. While some of this is true and some is spin, one thing I would counter with is that when you get a high pitch count and get knocked out in the 5th or 6th inning, you arent exactly getting the best the bullpen has to offer. Go deeper in games, get it to the 7-8-9 inning guys and Im sure that rate will go down, if his bad outings are these shorter appearances, I would suspect his inherited runners will have a higher rate.

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yusmeiro petit pitched good. when they gave lincecum the money the last time they could have gotten a good hitter.

I think the problem they have is that hitters dont seem to want to come to them because of the ballpark, cold weather or other factors, I read back in September they were going to be in on some of the Cubans, now they both signed elsewhere and since they moved to that park what hitting free agents have they signed?

well they traded for pence. they have not signed a power hitter yet. angel pagan. that is about it. pence actually had his best season this year and the rest of the giants team didn't hit at all.

One thing I read in some of the Lincecum articles was that he had bad luck when it came to runners he left for his relievers, that they scored at a 20% rate. While some of this is true and some is spin, one thing I would counter with is that when you get a high pitch count and get knocked out in the 5th or 6th inning, you arent exactly getting the best the bullpen has to offer. Go deeper in games, get it to the 7-8-9 inning guys and Im sure that rate will go down, if his bad outings are these shorter appearances, I would suspect his inherited runners will have a higher rate.

I'd like to see those. If he was leaving 2+ baserunners and/or runners on third (or scoring position) with less than 2 outs, then that's not 'bad luck', that's on him.

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This is an interesting situation to me because it seemed a no-brainer to let this guy go. Usually when teams let stars go it's because they know from seeing them everyday that they're toast. Pujols, Hamilton, etc.

I do wonder why they'd re-sign him to this deal. Maybe they're just dumb. Very possible. Maybe they think he can still pitch if he gets his mind right or something like that?

There were some subtle signs of improvement in the second half of the year. I don't have the spilts in front of me though.

What's the going rate for #3 starters that can log 200 innings these days anyways?

As for the offense...they are banking on panda getting in shape and Belt improving. They better not be counting on Pence repeating his 2013. Still need a LF though.

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This is the definition of paying for past performance. Not only is Linecum no longer an ace, but I'm wondering if he's even a #3 on most teams.

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Among qualified players, here are the two starters who have put up a worse ERA than Lincecum over the past two years:

Luke Hochevar

Edinson Volquez

That is all.

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Tigers signed Anibal Sanchez for 5 years 80 million last year and I thought it was a bit excessive. This makes that look like a total steal. If you're going to give him over 10 million a year, make it for one year with a team option for the second. Of course you'd hate to see him return to form elsewhere, but how's that going to make other guys feel in contract negotiations?

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That money could've helped their offense a bit. Timmy is going down the path of reliever. Yeesh.

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That money could've helped their offense a bit. Timmy is going down the path of reliever. Yeesh.

I havent really found anyone who thinks it was a good deal.

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I havent really found anyone who thinks it was a good deal.

I take it you haven't had a chance to ask Timmy or his agent.

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That money could've helped their offense a bit. Timmy is going down the path of reliever. Yeesh.

I havent really found anyone who thinks it was a good deal.

Fangraphs didn't hate it, but their argument didn't make much sense to me. His ERA has been worse than his FIP, which would make him a classical buy low. However, His FIP has been 4.18 and 3.74 the past 2 years. The 2012 FIP put him in the bottom third of SPs, and the 2013 FIP put him right around league average, so he still hasn't been any good by that measure. That means the Giants are paying $17.5M per year to an average/below average pitcher who has averaged 1.2 WAR the past 2 years.

I suppose it isn't too crazy, if you go by WAR he was probably worth around $10M/year. Thus, it's an OK deal if someone can argue it's worth $7.5M/year to get the short term deal, advertising from a fan favorite, and any upside he might have.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tim-lincecum-and-the-slow-death-of-era/

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Interesting article and it helps put some perspective on what GM's are thinking when making these deals. I, like most, hated this deal when I first heard about it, but after reading the article I at least have an understanding of what may have been going on in the GM office. I still think its an overpay but at least its by a sum that I feel Timmy can earn back if his ERA starts to line up with his peripherals. This is easier said than done just based on the fact that he has lost 2 mph on his fastball and won't have the ability to do what he was once able to unless his velo comes back. Once again, interesting article and thanks for posting it umphrey!

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