Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Posting In The Clutch

Eric Hosmer 2014 Outlook

303 posts in this topic

From the beginning of June until the end of the season, Hosmer was exceptional, posting a line of .318/.367/.494 (.862 OPS) over 482 PAs. He had 16 HRs, 26 doubles, 68 runs scored, 63 RBIs, and 8 SBs during that span.

Extrapolate those numbers to a 162-game average and you're looking at 24 HRs, 39 doubles, 94 RBIs, 102 runs scored, and 12 SBs. He just turned 24 today.

Two burning questions:

1. Is this the kind of upside that he has?

2. Where does he go in next year's drafts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally, in a 5x5 league, I'd rank him #6 (behind Goldy, Encarnacion, Davis, Freeman and Votto). I'd have him ahead of Prince right now, because I think he can hit for a higher average, and get into double digits in SBs again. I don't think there will be that much of a difference between their power numbers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league. I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder. No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league. I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder. No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

482 PAs is not exactly a small portion to extrapolate from...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe I'm drunk and adding up wrong, but I don't think so: Hosmer had 479 PAs since June 1st. Yeah, still not a small sample size, but neither are the 195 PAs before then. Anyway you slice it, it's about 30% of a year's PAs you want to ignore. Why cut Hosmer the slack? I"ll gladly take him ahead of Fielder in 2015, after he shows consistent superiority over Fielder in a full 162-game, 600 PA + season in 2014.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont know that I would have him ahead of Prince but in the same neighborhood or tier, he would be on that list of 1B that would say something like "make sure you get one of these guys".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07: 228 Runs/Ribbies 50 homers .288 average

'09: 244 Runs/Ribbies 46 homers .299 average

'11: 215 Runs/Ribbies 38 homers .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s. Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's a .290+ hitter to me. I think he drops something like a .300-27HR-100-100-15 type year. Superb talent that finally got the hitting plane right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Long way from making up a draft list, but tentatively I'd say I'd have him about 28 overall in an AL-league. I definitely would not put him ahead of Fielder. No matter a youngster's upside, and this one has been considerably hyped, I don't think taking a portion of ABs and then calculating over a full season is a good practice.

482 PAs is not exactly a small portion to extrapolate from...

Maybe I'm drunk and adding up wrong, but I don't think so: Hosmer had 479 PAs since June 1st. Yeah, still not a small sample size, but neither are the 195 PAs before then. Anyway you slice it, it's about 30% of a year's PAs you want to ignore. Why cut Hosmer the slack? I"ll gladly take him ahead of Fielder in 2015, after he shows consistent superiority over Fielder in a full 162-game, 600 PA + season in 2014.

I realized after I posted that you were probably counting sac flies and HBPs, making it 482 since June for Hosmer and 197 before. Sorry to get so nitpicky. When I first added it up, I mistakenly thought there was a bigger difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting discussion here. He's had a couple of good 1/2 seasons and a couple really bad ones. He did show consistency this year from June on, and hit .299 at Kauffman with 10 HR's, so his home park didn't really penalize him. I'd like to see how his hr/fb rate compared to previous years since it can have some predictive value for increased power. I'd say at his age with almost 3 full seasons under his belt it's reasonable to expect some more improvement in the power department, so a .300 BA with 25 HR's seems pretty fair for a very early projection. The steals to me are just gravy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07: 228 Runs/Ribbies 50 homers .288 average

'09: 244 Runs/Ribbies 46 homers .299 average

'11: 215 Runs/Ribbies 38 homers .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s. Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.

I don't think anyone said Hosmer would put up Fielder numbers, rather that Fielder is on the decline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[

Since becoming a full-time player in '06, Fielder has had three "monster years in his career: 2007, 2009, and 2011:

'07: 228 Runs/Ribbies 50 homers .288 average

'09: 244 Runs/Ribbies 46 homers .299 average

'11: 215 Runs/Ribbies 38 homers .299 average

Even if Hosmer reached his full potential, I don't think he can put up these type of #'s. Getting to the 200 mark in ribbies and runs would require help from his teammates, and KC's lineup is not strong.

I don't think anyone said Hosmer would put up Fielder numbers, rather that Fielder is on the decline.

Fielder turns 30 in May. Far too young to be talking about a decline. Think he could still have 1 or two more "monster" years in him. Even "extrapolating" the best for Hosmer, he would only be slightly better (in steals and maybe average; homers and ribbies would be about the same) than the "down" Fielder of 2012-13.

Right now I have Fielder at 13th in my AL-only; Hosmer would be at about 25, 26.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will Eric Hosmer finally have a breakout season in 2014? Predicted numbers please...thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was pretty consistent from June till the end of the season.

April & May he had HR/FB% of 0% and 5.6% respectively. Both were unsustainable for a player of his caliber (career 12.6% so it was bound to go up). After that it ranged from 9.1%-27.3% in each in the last 4 months. The average 1B has a HR/FB% of 14.1%.

I would safely bank him for 20 HR and 90 RBI and a .290 BA, with room for more (very talented).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was pretty consistent from June till the end of the season.

April & May he had HR/FB% of 0% and 5.6% respectively. Both were unsustainable for a player of his caliber (career 12.6% so it was bound to go up). After that it ranged from 9.1%-27.3% in each in the last 4 months. The average 1B has a HR/FB% of 14.1%.

I would safely bank him for 20 HR and 90 RBI and a .290 BA, with room for more (very talented).

Early Steamer projections from Fangraphs:

21 HR 83 R 89 RBI 11 STL .288 AVG .815 OPS 2.8 WAR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.

I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.

Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.

I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.

Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.

I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.

Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.

No way is that his floor. We've seen how he can bottom out with a bad approach. It's not pretty. But I am optimistic about this season.

If that were his floor, he wouldn't be around in the 5th round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.

I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.

Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.

No way is that his floor. We've seen how he can bottom out with a bad approach. It's not pretty. But I am optimistic about this season.

If that were his floor, he wouldn't be around in the 5th round.

Have to agree, Clutch. We've seen this show too many times before to count on anything w Hos. But, hey, hopefully that's his 2015 floor, Rebel!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm all-in on Hosmer this year.

I'll say 90-25-90-15-.290/.850.

Even if he just comes close to these #s, he'd be a steal at pick 60 or so, IMO.

I would actually call that his floor for this season barring injury. I'm crossing my fingers for something like .310 90-30-100-15. Paul Goldschmidt lite in 2014.

No way is that his floor. We've seen how he can bottom out with a bad approach. It's not pretty. But I am optimistic about this season.

If that were his floor, he wouldn't be around in the 5th round.

Have to agree, Clutch. We've seen this show too many times before to count on anything w Hos. But, hey, hopefully that's his 2015 floor, Rebel!

I consider May 2013 and beyond Eric Hosmer to be a completely different player than the one on a prolonged sophomore slump. I realize that is dangerous and optimistic, but there's a point when you have to believe a player turns the corner. Just like Max Scherzer 2nd half 2012. Cut down his walks. Many predicted a Cy Young type year in 2013, while some were conservative in expectations.

If you truly believe Hosmer has adjusted to MLB pitching and figured out his mechanics, I think a conservative expectation is something like .290-20-15, and a realistic expectation is a .300-25-15. But it wouldn't surprise me at all to see .310-27-17 from him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's amazing to see the difference on these boards from Homser now to Hosmer last year. The venom last year was ridiculous and now I'm seeing a ton of love.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's amazing to see the difference on these boards from Homser now to Hosmer last year. The venom last year was ridiculous and now I'm seeing a ton of love.

It was always love, man. Just a tough, daddy taking Vietnam out on me, kind of love.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What you guys don't realize is that Hosmer is Lorenzo's brother and that his floor is really about 120-35-120-20-.320. Also, Gold Glove winner and pitches in an extra innings game to get the win in the 15th inning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.