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Trevor Rosenthal 2014 Outlook

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Top 5 closer (if he remains a closer).

In no particular order:

Chappy

Kenley

Rosenthal

Two random others? Perkins? Holland?

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Top 5 closer (if he remains a closer).

In no particular order:

Chappy

Kenley

Rosenthal

Two random others? Perkins? Holland?

No love for Koji?

But yeah, he doesn't make the Rotation. He should be one of the upper tier closers..

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Top 5 closer (if he remains a closer).

In no particular order:

Chappy

Kenley

Rosenthal

Two random others? Perkins? Holland?

No love for Koji?

But yeah, he doesn't make the Rotation. He should be one of the upper tier closers..

Kimbrel was the guy I blanked on.

Koji would definitely be top 10.

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I think I would take him over Koji just because I think Koji can get hurt at some point. Its Kimbrell, Holland, Rosenthal, Chapman, Kenley for me (in that order). Koji would be six with perkins somewhere in the top ten.

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Chappy, Jensen and Kimbrel are the three elite guys all up or over 13K per 9, Rosenthal was right in that mix too. Uehara was over 12 and has been pretty much lights out since getting the job.

Havent done my closer prep yet, but those 5 I think have to be the top 5 heading into 2014.

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Chappy, Jensen and Kimbrel are the three elite guys all up or over 13K per 9, Rosenthal was right in that mix too. Uehara was over 12 and has been pretty much lights out since getting the job.

Havent done my closer prep yet, but those 5 I think have to be the top 5 heading into 2014.

Yeah I don't know what else people want from Koji to be in the top 5. 12:1 K:BB ratio. He's #1 to me.

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Chappy, Jensen and Kimbrel are the three elite guys all up or over 13K per 9, Rosenthal was right in that mix too. Uehara was over 12 and has been pretty much lights out since getting the job.

Havent done my closer prep yet, but those 5 I think have to be the top 5 heading into 2014.

Yeah I don't know what else people want from Koji to be in the top 5. 12:1 K:BB ratio. He's #1 to me.

74 Innings, WHIP of .56...thats off the charts, to put that into some perspective, Mo who everyone considered really the king of WHIP and probably the greatest closer of all time, career best was .66 and that was in 70 innings of work. Uehara has only had a WHIP over 1 in his first year, he has been sub 1 each year since.

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Chappy, Jensen and Kimbrel are the three elite guys all up or over 13K per 9, Rosenthal was right in that mix too. Uehara was over 12 and has been pretty much lights out since getting the job.

Havent done my closer prep yet, but those 5 I think have to be the top 5 heading into 2014.

Yeah I don't know what else people want from Koji to be in the top 5. 12:1 K:BB ratio. He's #1 to me.

74 Innings, WHIP of .56...thats off the charts, to put that into some perspective, Mo who everyone considered really the king of WHIP and probably the greatest closer of all time, career best was .66 and that was in 70 innings of work. Uehara has only had a WHIP over 1 in his first year, he has been sub 1 each year since.

Yeah, he's ridiculous. His career numbers as a RP:

220 innings

284 K/26 BB (10.92 K/BB)

11.7 K/9

1.93 ERA

.7 WHIP

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Chappy, Jensen and Kimbrel are the three elite guys all up or over 13K per 9, Rosenthal was right in that mix too. Uehara was over 12 and has been pretty much lights out since getting the job.

Havent done my closer prep yet, but those 5 I think have to be the top 5 heading into 2014.

Yeah I don't know what else people want from Koji to be in the top 5. 12:1 K:BB ratio. He's #1 to me.

The only knock on Koji is age (and I say this as a dynasty league owner of Koji). If you don't think his age is an issue then he's definitely top 5. If you do he's top 10.

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I'd be very surprised if he wasn't given a chance to start next year.

He's always projected to be a starter, there's never been any questions in regards to if he could be at the MLB level(unlike Martinez, and those have more to do with durability than his stuff/command), and prior to this season he made it quite clear he wanted to eventually start. Rosenthal was just an easy choice for a late inning RP role this year due to necessity and cause his stuff fits so well and plays up in that role. In regards to him and Martinez, teams don't leave guys with #1-#2 SP potential in a bullpen unless it just doesn't work out.

There's lots of questions that will be interesting to keep tabs on come spring training, Waino, Wacha, and Miller are probably the only definite's for a SP job. What are their plans with Lynn and Kelly? Where is Motte at? What do they want to do with Martinez? Has Rosenthal changed his tune and wants to close? I personally have little doubt, with exception of being on an innings limit, Rosenthal would be a better SP than Lance Lynn next year. Lynn is a FB guy over 70% of the time, I like Rosenthal's FB and FB command better. I also think he has a better breaking ball than Lynn(but Rosenthal doesn't often need it in his current role).

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So if they stretch Rosenthal out and Motte is not ready who's the guy in St. Louis? If Motte is not close do they most likely go with Rosenthal and if he (Motte) is close by spring training do they go with a closer by commitee to start the year?

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I'd be very surprised if he wasn't given a chance to start next year.

He's always projected to be a starter, there's never been any questions in regards to if he could be at the MLB level(unlike Martinez, and those have more to do with durability than his stuff/command), and prior to this season he made it quite clear he wanted to eventually start. Rosenthal was just an easy choice for a late inning RP role this year due to necessity and cause his stuff fits so well and plays up in that role. In regards to him and Martinez, teams don't leave guys with #1-#2 SP potential in a bullpen unless it just doesn't work out.

There's lots of questions that will be interesting to keep tabs on come spring training, Waino, Wacha, and Miller are probably the only definite's for a SP job. What are their plans with Lynn and Kelly? Where is Motte at? What do they want to do with Martinez? Has Rosenthal changed his tune and wants to close? I personally have little doubt, with exception of being on an innings limit, Rosenthal would be a better SP than Lance Lynn next year. Lynn is a FB guy over 70% of the time, I like Rosenthal's FB and FB command better. I also think he has a better breaking ball than Lynn(but Rosenthal doesn't often need it in his current role).

I don't think they mess with Rosenthal at this point. Just because he's a dominant reliever who used to be a starter doesn't mean he'd be a great starter. He relies mostly on one pitch that's effective in part because of velocity that won't be sustained as a starter.

As for their rotation, don't forget that Jaime Garcia is coming back at some point next year, too.

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I'd be very surprised if he wasn't given a chance to start next year.

He's always projected to be a starter, there's never been any questions in regards to if he could be at the MLB level(unlike Martinez, and those have more to do with durability than his stuff/command), and prior to this season he made it quite clear he wanted to eventually start. Rosenthal was just an easy choice for a late inning RP role this year due to necessity and cause his stuff fits so well and plays up in that role. In regards to him and Martinez, teams don't leave guys with #1-#2 SP potential in a bullpen unless it just doesn't work out.

There's lots of questions that will be interesting to keep tabs on come spring training, Waino, Wacha, and Miller are probably the only definite's for a SP job. What are their plans with Lynn and Kelly? Where is Motte at? What do they want to do with Martinez? Has Rosenthal changed his tune and wants to close? I personally have little doubt, with exception of being on an innings limit, Rosenthal would be a better SP than Lance Lynn next year. Lynn is a FB guy over 70% of the time, I like Rosenthal's FB and FB command better. I also think he has a better breaking ball than Lynn(but Rosenthal doesn't often need it in his current role).

I don't think they mess with Rosenthal at this point. Just because he's a dominant reliever who used to be a starter doesn't mean he'd be a great starter. He relies mostly on one pitch that's effective in part because of velocity that won't be sustained as a starter.

As for their rotation, don't forget that Jaime Garcia is coming back at some point next year, too.

Well, Rosenthal was a SP who was an enormous SP prospect that projected as a #2, possibility a #1 which has a lot to do with the development of a change up - which is getting better. None of that has changed - the Cardinals just needed him in the bullpen for this season. In the baseball world an average SP has waaaaaaay more value than an elite RP. No one is saying he'll be a great starter - who knows? You just don't see teams commit a guy like Rosenthal to a lifelong bullpen dude at 23 years old, esp when he wants to start. Sure his FB is and will always be his go to pitch, even as a RP he only throws it slightly more than Lance Lynn does as a SP from a % standpoint.

I'm not saying he won't close next year - but it's VERY RARE in baseball a SP prospect like Rosenthal isn't given a chance to start for a couple years given they want too, and there isn't durability concerns(unlike Chapman who wants to close and has durability concerns as a SP).

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As for their rotation, don't forget that Jaime Garcia is coming back at some point next year, too.

Ideally they would find a way to trade Garcia. I've never been a big fan of his, his personality doesn't really fit in with the rest of the team.

A rotation of Waino/Wacha/Miller/Martinez/Rosenthal would be so nasty.

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I'd be very surprised if he wasn't given a chance to start next year.

He's always projected to be a starter, there's never been any questions in regards to if he could be at the MLB level(unlike Martinez, and those have more to do with durability than his stuff/command), and prior to this season he made it quite clear he wanted to eventually start. Rosenthal was just an easy choice for a late inning RP role this year due to necessity and cause his stuff fits so well and plays up in that role. In regards to him and Martinez, teams don't leave guys with #1-#2 SP potential in a bullpen unless it just doesn't work out.

There's lots of questions that will be interesting to keep tabs on come spring training, Waino, Wacha, and Miller are probably the only definite's for a SP job. What are their plans with Lynn and Kelly? Where is Motte at? What do they want to do with Martinez? Has Rosenthal changed his tune and wants to close? I personally have little doubt, with exception of being on an innings limit, Rosenthal would be a better SP than Lance Lynn next year. Lynn is a FB guy over 70% of the time, I like Rosenthal's FB and FB command better. I also think he has a better breaking ball than Lynn(but Rosenthal doesn't often need it in his current role).

I don't think they mess with Rosenthal at this point. Just because he's a dominant reliever who used to be a starter doesn't mean he'd be a great starter. He relies mostly on one pitch that's effective in part because of velocity that won't be sustained as a starter.

As for their rotation, don't forget that Jaime Garcia is coming back at some point next year, too.

Well, Rosenthal was a SP who was an enormous SP prospect that projected as a #2, possibility a #1 which has a lot to do with the development of a change up - which is getting better. None of that has changed - the Cardinals just needed him in the bullpen for this season. In the baseball world an average SP has waaaaaaay more value than an elite RP. No one is saying he'll be a great starter - who knows? You just don't see teams commit a guy like Rosenthal to a lifelong bullpen dude at 23 years old, esp when he wants to start. Sure his FB is and will always be his go to pitch, even as a RP he only throws it slightly more than Lance Lynn does as a SP from a % standpoint.

I'm not saying he won't close next year - but it's VERY RARE in baseball a SP prospect like Rosenthal isn't given a chance to start for a couple years given they want too, and there isn't durability concerns(unlike Chapman who wants to close and has durability concerns as a SP).

Can't disagree with any of what you've said. It'll be interesting to watch it play out. Motte's health and what they want to do with Carlos obviously will play a huge role.

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As for their rotation, don't forget that Jaime Garcia is coming back at some point next year, too.

Ideally they would find a way to trade Garcia. I've never been a big fan of his, his personality doesn't really fit in with the rest of the team.

A rotation of Waino/Wacha/Miller/Martinez/Rosenthal would be so nasty.

I disagree with this.

I don't know what you mean about Garcia and his personality, but I'm sure Jon Mozeliak and the Cardinals organization disagree.

One thing that all good organizations have in common is that they don't sell low on their assets. They're not just going to trade Garcia who's an innings eater when healthy and has posted a 3.45 ERA in 551 career innings.

That's what makes this situation different to me.

Wainwright, Wacha, Miller and Garcia are locks in this rotation heading into next year pending health. That means everyone else is just fighting for the #5 spot.

I think a closer is more important than your #5 pitcher which can easily be filled by another good pitcher because the Cardinals are simply loaded. Assuming Waino/Wacha/Miller/Garcia are your top-4, that leaves Lynn, Kelly, Martinez, Rosenthal and others fighting for the #5 spot. I say others because it truly does not end there. The Cardinals best middle reliever right now (Seth Maness) is also a starter and was a good one at that in the minor leagues thanks to amazing control and ability to get groundballs. He's probably a candidate, as well.

If you move Rosenthal into the rotation, you need a closer. While any of these leftover guys could probably close and do well, they probably wouldn't do it as well as Rosenthal. Motte is a question mark so they could opt to leave Rosenthal out there where he's already been dominant for ~2 years now to provide stability.

They could also decide to trade Motte which is usually what financially efficient teams do with their closers when they become expensive and the team other options, which is the case with the Cardinals.

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Look. I know Rosenthal is a better Talent than Garcia or Kelly.

But Kelly has give them no reason to NOT be apart of the starting rotation. He has done well. This is very unique situation, because the Cardinals are loaded with pitching Talent.

Are starters going to bring more value than closers? YES!

However, you have to consider this. What is the difference between Roesnthal, a Talented but unproven pitcher and whoever will occupy that no 5 spot otherwise. Is it going to be that great? With most teams, the 5th starter is usually a filler/inning eater. Who you probably wont expect to have a great ERA.

But the Cardinals have legit options to fill the rotation.

Is it going to be more impactful than handing the Closer job to a guy coming of an injury, or someone completely different

Rosenthal will absolutely be starting for the Cardinals down the road. Because, that's where the big bucks for players lie and that's where the Cardinals want him eventually. However, I'm not sure that it will be happening next year, because of the situation. We shall see how the Off-season plays out.

Also, could be wrong. But I just don't see them trading Garica away.

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Regardless of what side of the fence you're on, we can all agree the Cardinals have a very good problem.

As an organization they certainly aren't desperate to trade either. However, I don't see Allen Craig being a long term solution in the OF - esp if that forces Taveras to play CF, so depending on how the Cards feel about Craig Vs Adams at 1B for their future they could probably deal one of them and a SP(Garcia, Lynn, Kelly, Martinez, Rosenthal) and land a very good SS, CF, LF - all spots they either have a void at now, or soon.

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Is there any question this guy isn't firmly entrenched as the #1/star/ace closer on the Cardinals?

Seems like there is still some speculation about his job security, about being moved, etc.

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Three things will happen to him: He regresses and becomes a set-up man, he dominates as a closer, the cardinals sustain numerous injuries to starting rotation and need to move him to starter after all-star break.

I would say him being a dominate closer is the most likely situation. The speculation is there just because the Cardinals system is so deep and their is always a 95mph flamethrower ready to be the next closer.

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Three things will happen to him: He regresses and becomes a set-up man, he dominates as a closer, the cardinals sustain numerous injuries to starting rotation and need to move him to starter after all-star break.

I would say him being a dominate closer is the most likely situation. The speculation is there just because the Cardinals system is so deep and their is always a 95mph flamethrower ready to be the next closer.

Added bonus, because of all the speculation, he comes at a nice discount.

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I've not seen any discount on Rosenthal in any mocks, drafts or auctions.

Just did a mixed 12 team auction on Sunday and he was the 5th highest priced closer (after Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen and Holland).

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