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LyondellBasell

Jurickson Profar 2014 Outlook

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He didn't show us much of anything last year. Got jerked around the diamond, and was relegated to the bench down the stretch in September.

I'll assume something happens over the off-season and he has a starting job either in texas or somewhere else. but Is it realistic to start thinking it just as likely he never breaks out as it is he's a star in the making?

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Not even 21 yet, so jury still has a few years to determine a verdict. If the price were right, I would gladly take a shot on him next spring. I guess though in terms of overvalue or overpay, Im not there yet, a few things concern me with him:

1. Fantasy prospect v. real prospect - he was the No.1 prospect in the game heading into last season, but how much of that ranking was based on things that fantasy players dont really care about (glove, arm, etc)

2. Some of his minor league stats were a bit concerning to me, I would of like to see someone who, given his skillset, would have a higher average in the minors. Seems like there are obviously some weaknesses there, and major league pitchers will find and expose them.

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He's always been highly overrated. Never understood all the hype, to be perfectly honest. And that's not just me saying that now. I've maintained this for awhile.

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I still love Profar's outlook. Texas sure didn't do him any favors in terms of his development by limiting his action. Kinsler needs to move to the outfield. Profar's bat tool was actually touted pretty heavily as a prospect. He was ranked as the top bat (not power related) by BA in the system a few years ago, in a system that was pretty loaded with offensive talent. I don't think you end up the no.1 prospect in the game without a pretty well rounded game. But, valid concerns have been expressed, as he didn't show much last year, but I chalk it up to poor management of a young prospect...there will be bumps in the road, but he's got to be on the road...

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I still love Profar's outlook. Texas sure didn't do him any favors in terms of his development by limiting his action. Kinsler needs to move to the outfield. Profar's bat tool was actually touted pretty heavily as a prospect. He was ranked as the top bat (not power related) by BA in the system a few years ago, in a system that was pretty loaded with offensive talent. I don't think you end up the no.1 prospect in the game without a pretty well rounded game. But, valid concerns have been expressed, as he didn't show much last year, but I chalk it up to poor management of a young prospect...there will be bumps in the road, but he's got to be on the road...

His power/speed potential is hard to ignore and I still have good expectations for him but It was really perplexing how the Rangers handled him this year. Ron Washington treating him as a bench player is not overly surprising but Jon Daniels, who seems like a smart GM, is. Maybe they were trying to break him into the major leagues gradually like some teams used to do with SP prospects in the bullpen their first year, but him not playing over Murphy in LF or Berkman/Moreland at DH/1B didn't make much sense.

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He's always been highly overrated. Never understood all the hype, to be perfectly honest.

There was so much hype for Profar, because he was typically one of the youngest, if not the youngest, players in the leagues he was playing in. He was in AA at 19 and got some work in at AAA at 20.

As for last year, I think that the Rangers FO deserve most of the blame. With Profar looming in the minors, Jon Daniels extended Kinsler for five years and Andrus, even though he had two years left, he got an eight year extension. With Beltre at third, there was essentially no place for Profar to play regularly in Texas.

However, Profar had a pretty decent rookie year, considering he had to learn two new positions at the big league level. He hit much better when he played SS, so I think he should rebound with some consistency. While his counting stats were quite pedestrian, his peripherals were pretty good. His 8% BB-rate was low considering Profar saw 42% of pitches in the zone, but his BB-rate should go up if his 5.5% whiff rate and 26% O-Zone swing rate. Going forward, I expect his typical fantasy stats to go up with an 86.7% contact rate and 23% LD-rate.

The thing I'm most concerned about for Profar is his situation. Kinsler doesn't seem interested in moving away from 2B and I doubt Andrus is traded with his contract. Daniels seems to have no intention of trading Profar, but if he remains in Texas, he'll still be blocked at 2B, SS, and 3B for at least the next few years. Hopefully his situation improves over the winter.

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From the FWST a few days ago.....

Jurickson Profar isn’t going anywhere, barring another team making general manager Jon Daniels a deal he can’t refuse.

Profar was in the lineup often this season, but not every day as the Rangers’ super-utility man. Incumbents Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus continued to get the majority of the playing time, and rightfully so.

But the Rangers want Profar to play every day in 2014, at one position, and something is going to have to give to make that happen. Though Kinsler still has four years and $62 million remaining on his contract, if any Rangers player is going to be traded his off-season, it’s him.

The Rangers might have to eat as much as half of the money owed to their three-time All-Star to move him, and other teams in need of a second baseman might first try to get free agent Robinson Cano and Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips, who is said to be available.

If Kinsler isn’t traded, the Rangers think they can get Profar regular at-bats with the same role he had in 2013. But the preferred route is regular at-bats at second base, one of several positions in flux as the Rangers reshape the roster the next few months.

“In an ideal situation, he would not be in that role,” Daniels said earlier this month. “Are we confident he can handle it better next year? Yeah, but in the same perfect world he won’t be. A lot of that will depend on what we do with the club this winter.”

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If he's getting consistent at bats he'll be on a couple of my rosters. The guy I'd that talented and his feel for the game is as impressive as Abby young player I've seen. That usually portends great things.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

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I don't care what anybody says I am BUYING on Profar. The guy is a great baseball player and knows the game like a veteran. He is still very young, but long term I think he produces .300 avg 15-20 hr's 80/80 15 sb per season. I will take that any day of the week.

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I don't care what anybody says I am BUYING on Profar. The guy is a great baseball player and knows the game like a veteran. He is still very young, but long term I think he produces .300 avg 15-20 hr's 80/80 15 sb per season. I will take that any day of the week.

I agree with you, but I don't think that season is coming quite yet. In a dynasty, by all means, hold. But in a re-draft league, I don't think he is of much value next year.

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He's always been highly overrated. Never understood all the hype, to be perfectly honest. And that's not just me saying that now. I've maintained this for awhile.

overrated, not saying you are wrong, but how do you figure? the dude has a great glove and a great bat and he isnt even 21 yet. Got bounced around alot last year but still showed some real flashes

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He's always been highly overrated. Never understood all the hype, to be perfectly honest. And that's not just me saying that now. I've maintained this for awhile.

overrated, not saying you are wrong, but how do you figure? the dude has a great glove and a great bat and he isnt even 21 yet. Got bounced around alot last year but still showed some real flashes

Every top prospect is going to be overrated thanks to Trout

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Wow, this is a funny thread.

Here's a guy who has played in 94 games before his 21st birthday which is still 3 months away. He has been one of the youngest players at every level in his baseball career.

I know the numbers weren't there last year but look deeper:

- 23.4% Line drive rate

- 8.0% walk rate (lg avg)

- Swung at only 23.8% of pitches out of the zone (29.7% is lg avg)

- Made contact on 93.4% of pitches in the zone (87.3% is lg avg)

- 86.7% contact rate overall (79.4% lg avg)

So in the end you have a middle infield prospect with solid plate discipline at the MLB level as a 20 year old, with excellent contact rates and is still developing strength and adding to his frame.

Get Mike Trout, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper out of your minds when you are thinking about prospects and their future. They are by far the exception. Look how many great players in MLB today didn't start playing regularly in the show until their mid 20s. Hell, look at Chris Davis. Every player has a different path and Profar is still on a great one.

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I could care less about his age. The emphasis on age and projectability over tangible results is misguided. Hell, his projectability isn't even all that impressive. He held his own in the upper minors, given his age, but he was far from superlative in any one area. He did not deserve to be rated the top prospect in the minor leagues. Not even close.

I'm not saying he won't be good. But there is an expectation for top prospects to be great. And I don't think he will ever be great.

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He'll be plenty valuable, I think in the long-run, but believe it will be more in an Ian Desmond type of mold.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

From what I've observed, Posting in the Clutch, who I generally respect as a poster, doesn't put much stock in age relative to league so keep that in mind when reading his posts on abnormally young players.

I on the other hand put a ton of stock into a guy being successful or even just holding his own when he is two to three years younger than the typical players in his league. I'm a big believer in Profar.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

From what I've observed, Posting in the Clutch, who I generally respect as a poster, doesn't put much stock in age relative to league so keep that in mind when reading his posts on abnormally young players.

I on the other hand put a ton of stock into a guy being successful or even just holding his own when he is two to three years younger than the typical players in his league. I'm a big believer in Profar.

That explains it. But even someone who isn't a "big believer" should know he will develop into AT LEAST a 15/15 guy with a good batting average. His floor is Dustin Pedroia (counting stats). BA and OBP are a different story.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

From what I've observed, Posting in the Clutch, who I generally respect as a poster, doesn't put much stock in age relative to league so keep that in mind when reading his posts on abnormally young players.

I on the other hand put a ton of stock into a guy being successful or even just holding his own when he is two to three years younger than the typical players in his league. I'm a big believer in Profar.

That explains it. But even someone who isn't a "big believer" should know he will develop into AT LEAST a 15/15 guy with a good batting average. His floor is Dustin Pedroia (counting stats). BA and OBP are a different story.

Another problem for Profar, at least initially, is where he'll hit in the lineup. If he doesn't hit for avg. or get on base, he's going to be in the bottom 3rd of the lineup, which also lowers his value significantly next season, imo.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

Given that the thread topic is "2014 outlook", I'm not factoring his age and long term expectations into this analysis. If you think he's worth anything more than a late round flier in 2014, good luck with your season.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

Given that the thread topic is "2014 outlook", I'm not factoring his age and long term expectations into this analysis. If you think he's worth anything more than a late round flier in 2014, good luck with your season.

I don't know, maybe by "sooner than later" I meant 2014? I don't know, just a theory.

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

Given that the thread topic is "2014 outlook", I'm not factoring his age and long term expectations into this analysis. If you think he's worth anything more than a late round flier in 2014, good luck with your season.

I don't know, maybe by "sooner than later" I meant 2014? I don't know, just a theory.

Okay, well let's hear your prediction then, so far all I'm hearing is a rant about how awesome he was at AGE 18 and vague comparisons to the fact that Mike Trout (!!??) broke out at a young age.

My observation is that even if you assumed his absolute best minor league numbers are what he'd produce, he'd still be, say, a 5th round pick. Since that valuation is based on an extraordinary assumption, and since his major league numbers have actually been very bad so far, I don't know how you can say he's worth more than a late round flier in 2014.

What difference does his age 18 season (in single A, no less) even have to a conversation about his projected major league performance when he turns 21 next year? Upward trajectories matter a lot more than tools. I'm much more bullish about Byron Buxton as a pro based on his age 19 season than I am about Profer based on his age 18 season

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Un-draftable or a late round lottery ticket as best.

Even if you took his best minor league stats (2012 AA) and assumed he could produce identical numbers in the majors (a huge if), you'd just have a good but not great fantasy player.

Agreed that his hype is based on real life scouting and fundamentals that don't translate in fantasy.

I can't believe people are saying this lol. I mean his 2012 stats were 76/14/62/16 with slashes of .281/.368/.452, AT 19! Note: He was even BETTER in his age 18 season with an OPS of .883. I can only think of a handful of names off the top of my head who were SLIGHTLY better than him at 18: Alex Rodriguez, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Bryce Harper. If you can think of any others, feel free to throw them in there. I get that these are your expectations for someone who is as good as he is at 18 years old, but just because he might not be A-Rod, Trout, or Harper, doesn't mean he can't easily be Pedroia, Machado, or Kinsler.

His numbers are GREAT for his age (in the minors). How much better than him was Mike Trout when he first got called up at 19 to the majors? It's all development. And Profar has the tools to easily develop into a 20/20 SS sooner than later.

Given that the thread topic is "2014 outlook", I'm not factoring his age and long term expectations into this analysis. If you think he's worth anything more than a late round flier in 2014, good luck with your season.

I don't know, maybe by "sooner than later" I meant 2014? I don't know, just a theory.

Okay, well let's hear your prediction then, so far all I'm hearing is a rant about how awesome he was at AGE 18 and vague comparisons to the fact that Mike Trout (!!??) broke out at a young age.

My observation is that even if you assumed his absolute best minor league numbers are what he'd produce, he'd still be, say, a 5th round pick. Since that valuation is based on an extraordinary assumption, and since his major league numbers have actually been very bad so far, I don't know how you can say he's worth more than a late round flier in 2014.

What difference does his age 18 season (in single A, no less) even have to a conversation about his projected major league performance when he turns 21 next year? Upward trajectories matter a lot more than tools. I'm much more bullish about Byron Buxton as a pro based on his age 19 season than I am about Profer based on his age 18 season

Of course you're bullish about Buxton, so is EVERYONE else in baseball. Basically you're just saying if the talent isn't extremely obvious, you don't believe.

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Profar was considered the top prospect. Buxton is now considered the top prospect. That's where the comparison is coming from.

And the thing is there is a world of difference between these two number one prospects.

It may not be a stretch to say that Profar's ceiling is Buton's floor.

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