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mverkruyse

2013 Mid-Year Redraft Rankings

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Thought I'd create this thread to have people re-evaluate the current outlook of the NFL, and assess what their board would look like if they were to join a redraft league starting today.

For me, the board would start off like this with PPR scoring:

1. Jamaal Charles

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Peyton Manning

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Reggie Bush

6. Adrian Peterson

7. Matt Forte

8. Jimmy Graham

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Arian Foster

11. Dez Bryant

12. AJ Green

13. Drew Brees

14. Eddie Lacy

15. Knowshon Moreno

16. Brandon Marshall

16. Demaryius Thomas

17. Wes Welker

18. Jordy Nelson

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. Frank Gore

Observations:

  • There are 4 Bronco's in my Top 20; Peyton Manning has single-handedly produced a factory of fantasy points. The biggest surprise here in terms of preseason ADP has to be Moreno: the flier/late drafted RB has taken advantage of the situation and poor RB landscape to the tune of an early-to-mid 2nd round status.

  • There are 10 RB's in the Top 20. The 50% split might seem large, but the Yahoo preseason rankings had 14 of their Top 20 as RB's, that drop-off from 70% to 50% can be attributed to general poor RB play overall this year (yes, I know, you have Jamaal and he's been awesome... CSB, it's still been a bad year for RB's) and an increase of RBBC's. That leads to...

  • 7 WR's in the Top 20. "You don't go WR early bro, WR is deep." This is partially true, there's a couple names up here that you could have had for relatively cheap during the preseason (Welker and Jordy come to mind), but that doesn't mean that drafting the stud WR's was a bad move this preseason. There's a legitimate case to be made for drafting Calvin #1, and those who drafted Dez, AJ Green, Marshall, Demaryius have basically gotten what they've paid for, Julio Jones as well, before the unfortunate injury. To phrase this in another light: knowing what you do today, would you trade Dez and AJ Green for Spiller, Rice, Trent, Wilson, MJD? Probably not, but that trade probably would've been vetoed before the season started.

  • There's a QB in the Top 5. Remember THIS. Remember how badly it turned out for anyone who took Vick #1 overall that season? It's because QB is deep, right? Because it seems stupid to draft anything but an RB in Round 1, right? Well guess what... it's inevitable that Manning would go Top 5 in any redraft starting today.

My picks are obviously slightly biased by PPR scoring, but I think they still hold relatively true in standard. Biggest drop-off would be Reggie Bush most likely, but it's still only a move from mid-1st to late-1st in my mind.

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Do I get points accumulated so far this year, or is this going forward? If it is going forward, I don't like Moreno nearly that high. I think he's a quality RB2, but I don't think we should anticipate that many TD going forward for the Broncos offense as they put up in the first half.

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Do I get points accumulated so far this year, or is this going forward? If it is going forward, I don't like Moreno nearly that high. I think he's a quality RB2, but I don't think we should anticipate that many TD going forward for the Broncos offense as they put up in the first half.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward. No issue with Moreno that high.

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Do I get points accumulated so far this year, or is this going forward? If it is going forward, I don't like Moreno nearly that high. I think he's a quality RB2, but I don't think we should anticipate that many TD going forward for the Broncos offense as they put up in the first half.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward. No issue with Moreno that high.

My main justification was this:

As stated above, there's only 10 RB's in my Top 20. That means in 10+ team leagues, there's really no more than 1 true "good-to-great" option at the position per manager. I don't love Moreno going forward, but the RB landscape justifies his position for me. He's the #5 scoring RB in terms of points per game in my league, so I couldn't drop him much further.

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Do I get points accumulated so far this year, or is this going forward? If it is going forward, I don't like Moreno nearly that high. I think he's a quality RB2, but I don't think we should anticipate that many TD going forward for the Broncos offense as they put up in the first half.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward. No issue with Moreno that high.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward with a RBBC or less touches for Moreno (14Moreno-11Ball 4 CJ last game) or Ball promoted to goal line back or Moreno commits murder and flees to Mexico. Issue with Moreno that high.

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Do I get points accumulated so far this year, or is this going forward? If it is going forward, I don't like Moreno nearly that high. I think he's a quality RB2, but I don't think we should anticipate that many TD going forward for the Broncos offense as they put up in the first half.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward. No issue with Moreno that high.

Could also make the argument that they'll be more run-heavy going forward with a RBBC or less touches for Moreno (14Moreno-11Ball 4 CJ last game) or Ball promoted to goal line back or Moreno commits murder and flees to Mexico. Issue with Moreno that high.

Moreno had 20 touches last week, not 14.

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1- Calvin Johnson

2- Jamaal Charles

3 - Jimmy Graham (assuming that foot starts feeling normal)

4 - Matt Forte

5 - Dez Bryant

6 - Marshawn Lynch

7 - Peyton Manning

8 - Arian Foster

9 - Drew Brees

10 - Aaron Rodgers

11 - LeSean McCoy

12 - Vernon Davis

13 - Rob Gronkowski

14 - AJ Green

15 - Eddie Lacy

16 - Reggie Bush (still can't see him holding up, w/out injury concerns he'd be top 5)

17 - Adrian Peterson (Vikes have the 3 worst collection of QB's I've ever seen)

18 - Jordy Nelson

19 - Wes Welker (admittedly he could be higher but don't feel like re typing the list ;)

20 - Frank Gore

21 - Knowshon Moreno

22 - Zac Stacy

23 - DeMaryius Thomas

24 - Eric Decker

25 - Matthew Stafford (another could be higher, kind of forgot about him)

26 - Cam Newton (same as above, lol)

27 - Vincent Jackson

28 - DeMarco Murray

29 - LeVeon Bell

30 - Tony Romo

31 - Victor Cruz

32 - Andre Johnson

33 - Antonio Brown

34 - Josh Gordon

35 - RG III

36 - Alfred Morris

37 - Philip Rivers

38 - Andrew Luck

39 - Justin Blackmon

40 - Russell Wilson

41 - Darren McFadden

42 - Keenan Allen

43 - Antonio Gates

44 - Pierre Garcon

45 - Anquan Boldin

46 - Percy Harvin

47 - Jarrett Boykin

48 - Jordan Cameron

49 - Jason Witten

50 - Ray Rice

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not sure how the OP didnt put Rodgers in top 20 lol

Haha I debated it, but he ended up being #21 for me. Reason is I don't think the drop-off in production between Rodgers and someone like Romo, Rivers, or a healthy Mike Vick is as big as it has been in years past.

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not sure how the OP didnt put Rodgers in top 20 lol

Haha I debated it, but he ended up being #21 for me. Reason is I don't think the drop-off in production between Rodgers and someone like Romo, Rivers, or a healthy Mike Vick is as big as it has been in years past.

Well I guess it's safe to say you were right to leave Rodgers out of the top 20 :(

Jordy is outta the top 20 too without Rodgers healthy.

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Thought I'd create this thread to have people re-evaluate the current outlook of the NFL, and assess what their board would look like if they were to join a redraft league starting today.

For me, the board would start off like this with PPR scoring:

1. Jamaal Charles

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Peyton Manning

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Reggie Bush

6. Adrian Peterson

7. Matt Forte

8. Jimmy Graham

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Arian Foster

11. Dez Bryant

12. AJ Green

13. Drew Brees

14. Eddie Lacy

15. Knowshon Moreno

16. Brandon Marshall

16. Demaryius Thomas

17. Wes Welker

18. Jordy Nelson

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. Frank Gore

Observations:

  • There are 4 Bronco's in my Top 20; Peyton Manning has single-handedly produced a factory of fantasy points. The biggest surprise here in terms of preseason ADP has to be Moreno: the flier/late drafted RB has taken advantage of the situation and poor RB landscape to the tune of an early-to-mid 2nd round status.

  • There are 10 RB's in the Top 20. The 50% split might seem large, but the Yahoo preseason rankings had 14 of their Top 20 as RB's, that drop-off from 70% to 50% can be attributed to general poor RB play overall this year (yes, I know, you have Jamaal and he's been awesome... CSB, it's still been a bad year for RB's) and an increase of RBBC's. That leads to...

  • 7 WR's in the Top 20. "You don't go WR early bro, WR is deep." This is partially true, there's a couple names up here that you could have had for relatively cheap during the preseason (Welker and Jordy come to mind), but that doesn't mean that drafting the stud WR's was a bad move this preseason. There's a legitimate case to be made for drafting Calvin #1, and those who drafted Dez, AJ Green, Marshall, Demaryius have basically gotten what they've paid for, Julio Jones as well, before the unfortunate injury. To phrase this in another light: knowing what you do today, would you trade Dez and AJ Green for Spiller, Rice, Trent, Wilson, MJD? Probably not, but that trade probably would've been vetoed before the season started.

  • There's a QB in the Top 5. Remember THIS. Remember how badly it turned out for anyone who took Vick #1 overall that season? It's because QB is deep, right? Because it seems stupid to draft anything but an RB in Round 1, right? Well guess what... it's inevitable that Manning would go Top 5 in any redraft starting today.

My picks are obviously slightly biased by PPR scoring, but I think they still hold relatively true in standard. Biggest drop-off would be Reggie Bush most likely, but it's still only a move from mid-1st to late-1st in my mind.

I'm too lazy to post my own list and I generally agree with yours with a few exceptions.

-If it's from this point forward, I'd never take Manning close to that high. Brees either.

-I'd move ADP up to 2nd.

-Gronk is too low.

-Jordy is too high if you consider injury to Rodgers.

The rest looks pretty solid.

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Drew Brees way too high

Foster and Nelson need to move down a bit

Jimmy graham a bit too low

Rest is about right- I honestly don't mind where bush is. He has 20+ pts in 4/4 games him and Calvin started and finished together healthy (Calvin snaps were limited against CLE). And I don't see him as injury prone as like amendola or Vick or DMc but rather like Murray

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If both Jimmy Graham in Gronk continue to put up huge amount of points I think they are no-brainer mid 1st round picks. I think Graham needs to be right after Megatron.

You could swap Forte and Peterson but its fine like it is

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You guys think McCoy should be that high while playing under Foles? Since Vick went down his #'s aren't all that great. On that list I'd put Lynch and Lacy ahead of him (even in PPR scoring) - possibly Moreno also

Also I see ppl complaning about Manning's placement - where would you place him?

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SpartanEric seems to have forgotten about Brandon Marshall....

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Come draft time next year ; Megatron, AJ Green, Dez, or Graham for me in round 1.

I'm scared to death to take a RB next year in the first round unless it's a sure thing like AP. I feel like Megatron, Dez, Graham are bulletproof. Unless they somehow got injured, you know what you're getting. RB's can get injured or just fall off the face of the earth for no reason. Foster, Rice, Martin, Spiller, T-Rich, etc. The list of RB's that have come out of nowhere on waivers is long also.

I'm not even paying one shred of attention to draft rankings next year or expert opinion. It just kills your team too much to get nothing from your picks in the first couple rounds. One league I got Megatron at pick 10 and Dez fell to me in round 2. (Green, Graham, and Marshall all went ahead of him) Probably first time ever going WR-WR. I can't lose in this league even if I tried. I had a great draft all around, but locking down two proven monsters with picks 1-2 just helps 100 fold.

I don't know if anybody else is sharing the same opinion as me after the past couple seasons. I'm dead-set on doing this next year. I don't care how many weird looks or laughs I get taking Dez Bryant at pick #5 (if Megatron is gone), I'm sticking to it.

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My top 8.

1. Manning

(big gap)

2. Graham

3. Forte

4. Charles

5. Brees

6. AP

7. Calvin

8. Stafford

Based off of current production and positional scarcity.

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My top 8.

1. Manning

(big gap)

2. Graham

3. Forte

4. Charles

5. Brees

6. AP

7. Calvin

8. Stafford

Based off of current production and positional scarcity.

I will play in any FF league of yours if that is your top 8. Big money too.

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My top 8.

1. Manning

(big gap)

2. Graham

3. Forte

4. Charles

5. Brees

6. AP

7. Calvin

8. Stafford

Based off of current production and positional scarcity.

Lol what is this crap?

what the hell.... I cant even comprehend the rest of that ridiculous list after seeing the word "Stafford" up there

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My top 8.

1. Manning

(big gap)

2. Graham

3. Forte

4. Charles

5. Brees

6. AP

7. Calvin

8. Stafford

Based off of current production and positional scarcity.

Lol what is this crap?

what the hell.... I cant even comprehend the rest of that ridiculous list after seeing the word "Stafford" up there

forte ahead of charles and all day? stafford? who is big gap and why is he in between manning and graham? so many questions

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My top 8.

1. Manning

(big gap)

2. Graham

3. Forte

4. Charles

5. Brees

6. AP

7. Calvin

8. Stafford

Based off of current production and positional scarcity.

Lol what is this crap?

what the hell.... I cant even comprehend the rest of that ridiculous list after seeing the word "Stafford" up there

forte ahead of charles and all day? stafford? who is big gap and why is he in between manning and graham? so many questions

I think the bigger questions are why does he have Eli Manning at first, Garrett Graham at 2nd, and Austin Pettis at 6th

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Charles - beastly when he gets enough touches

AP - consistently a top 10 rb every year. should prob be #1 because of that

Lynch - beast mode

Graham - max only 2 rbs have more points in any format

Forte - always thought he had 1st round talent finally proving it this year

Peyton - only ranked this low because of the above names being so far ahead of the pack

Mccoy - know what he can do but had an off year last year so everyone shyed away

Calvin - megatron

Brees - best fantasy qb past couple years n consistently throws for 5000 yards and 30+ tds

Dez - finally showing his freakish natural talent since jerry jones got him a babysitter

That would probably be my top 10 for next year. I would make sure you have at least one of those.. preferably id like one of those rbs but any one of these studs will perform like a 1st round pick barring injury which is what you look for in your top pick. consistent quality and value at the position should be the biggest factors in your decisions for your top 3 rounds. i want my top picks to prove for more than 1 season that theyve produced at an elite level and if there are only a select few at that position that are a notch above anyone else, the value of that bumps them up a lot. to have graham and get 20-30 points a week out of a position that mostly everyone else gets 5-15 points will give you a huge advantage over the competition which is why i ranked him ahead of peyton and calvin. also because there are a few other options at qb and wr that will give you similar production while only a healthy gronk can challenge graham for that top te spot and it doesnt hurt that graham is only behind charles n forte in standard right now and only charles in .5 ppr

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