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Chris Davis 2014 Outlook

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Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.

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The real question is which Chris Davis should we expect next year. The one from April to June or the one from July to September.

I could definitely see him hitting 40 bombs next year but the question is whether teams will give him the chance to do so. I see teams not giving him much to hit. His strikeout rate is still atrocious which will really hurt in H2H leagues when he goes through slumps.

I probably won't be taking Davis because of where I project him being drafted but would consider so in this context. The league is a roto league with additional scoring categories to reduce the risk. Maybe OBP instead of AVG or additional stats like TB, SLG, or some combination of the before mentioned.

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Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.

I wouldn't take him 1-4 (Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, Cutch), but after that if I have the 5th pick I would consider taking him over Cano, especially since I'd be targeting Kipnis later. An argument could be made for Encarnacion as well.

Davis shouldn't go any later than 7th overall, though.

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Davis was arguably the biggest breakout player last year. Hit 53 homers and drove in 138 runs. He carried a lot of fantasy teams throughout the year and was arguably the fantasy MVP last year.

What do we possibly expect for next year?

I think a regression is a given. He's always had the power to lead the majors in homers, and finally made enough contact last year to live up to it. He won't go 53/138 again, but he could still hit 40. Will there be a big drop-off next year for the likely top 5 pick? Personally, I won't be taking him if I get a top 5 pick, as there are safer options than Davis available like Goldy or Cutch, and I think owners will take him expecting a repeat and be disappointed with him next year.

I wouldn't take him 1-4 (Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, Cutch), but after that if I have the 5th pick I would consider taking him over Cano, especially since I'd be targeting Kipnis later. An argument could be made for Encarnacion as well.

Davis shouldn't go any later than 7th overall, though.

I agree that Davis should go in the top seven and I would also have a difficult time picking between him and Encarnacion in the 6th spot. After them you have a hodge podge of injury risks and question marks. I think with your first round pick you have to go with reliablity and while I doubt Davis puts up a repeat of 2013 I think he can still give you value if drafted toward the end of the first round. If he slips to you with a later pick than 7th I say jump all over him.

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I loved this guy last year because the year before he hit 30 HR and hit 270, but was still flying way under the radar. This year, I just don't know if I could take him that high. His floor is probably his 2012 season of 270/30. Ceiling can't be anything higher than last year. Problem with getting him that high is he could end up being two stats.

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Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis? Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside. But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year. Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

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Depending on your league's positional requirements, Encarnacion qualifies for 3B in some leagues (like Yahoo!), so personally I'd take him over Davis in my league. Still see Davis as a top 10 pick though.

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Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis? Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside. But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year. Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

Depends if CIN re-signs Choo. Can you imagine something like Robinson and Cozart ahead of Votto? Forget it.

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Here's one that's been keeping me up at night...

Votto or Davis? Votto is surely the safer pick, but Chris Davis has the insane upside. But I also think Votto's value will be sneaky due to having an "under productive" year. Which I would think will be Votto's worst year in his prime.

Depends if CIN re-signs Choo. Can you imagine something like Robinson and Cozart ahead of Votto? Forget it.

Yep. Also depends on your league format, roto vs head to head, obp, etc.

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I think he will be a first rounder, just wont be one on my team, and if a lot of people take that approach, then you might have some leagues like we saw in the FSTA draft where he went mid 2nd round. I mean that is a league of "experts" and nobody took the guy in the 1st round so what does that say about what that group will write and say on their shows in the next two months leading up to peoples drafts.

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b. Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.

I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis

Machado

Crash

Jones

Wieters

Hardy

Lf

Dh

Weeks

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

What? You got a 40HR bat, a .290-30HR bat in the middle of your lineup. Not many teams have that kind of punch in their 3-4. O's have one of the best offenses in baseball, top 5. Above average would be like Milwaukee.

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b. Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.

I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis

Machado

Crash

Jones

Wieters

Hardy

Lf

Dh

Weeks

Weeks is an option ... OK, so he's an option. He has also been "optioned" to AAA the last 2 years by the A's. He's now 26 years old and RW lists him as the 3rd stringer for 2B

Ok, so they also have "options" for LF and DH. You do know that every single team in MLB has options ... doesn't make them good options.

that's 3 very weak positions ... but the O's have options.

I'll stick to my "at best it's slightly above average"

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How many teams don't have 2 or 3 holes and at least 2 stars?

They were 5th in the Majors in runs scored and 4th OPS with basically the same line up Switching McLouth and Lough.

That accomplished that with getting .669 OPS from 2B, .688 from RF, .704 from DH, .706 from LF. It is certainly top heavy, Texas and NYY got better, Tigers got worse on offense..and lets say LAA corrects itself. That still puts them around 8th. No?

Dodgers and Braves have Potential i suppose..

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Love him again this year. That O's lineup is filthy.

I don't see the Os lineup as filthy ... at best it's slightly above average.

Chris Davis and Adam Jones = stars

Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado = above average

Nick Markakis = below average

Ryan Flaherty, LF and DH = far below average

In the past Markakis has at least gotten on base which makes him valuable in the leadoff spot.

Weeks is an option at 2b. Maybe he finally puts it together.

Between Lough, Reimold, and Urrita (sp) they have options for lf and dh.

I'd call it a well above average lineup.

Markakis

Machado

Crash

Jones

Wieters

Hardy

Lf

Dh

Weeks

Weeks is an option ... OK, so he's an option. He has also been "optioned" to AAA the last 2 years by the A's. He's now 26 years old and RW lists him as the 3rd stringer for 2B

Ok, so they also have "options" for LF and DH. You do know that every single team in MLB has options ... doesn't make them good options.

that's 3 very weak positions ... but the O's have options.

I'll stick to my "at best it's slightly above average"

Want to list 12 better offenses? Last year they were 5th in runs, 1st in homers, 4th in OPS. Definitely more of a power team than on-base, but it is also a very young team. I imagine there is more improvement than regression from last year's numbers.

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The O's basically have the same lineup as last year, and that team was among the best in the league. The 2B position for the O's hasn't produced since Roberts before his concussion. Buck also uses the DH role to rotate players and give some starters rest as well as play matchups. I still think Nelson Cruz is going to end up in LF, which would bring more power potential to lineup. The O's hitting isn't a concern, it's the awful pitching that has people concerned.

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As for Crash, I'm projecting him for 265-275, 40 homers, 100 rbi.

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270 average. 35+ HRs and 110 RBIs would be great. boy how lack luckster those numbers look compared to last year.

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I believe Crush is a FA after 2015 (maybe 2016), can you imagine if he played in Yankee stadium.... 70 HR potential.

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I believe Crush is a FA after 2015 (maybe 2016), can you imagine if he played in Yankee stadium.... 70 HR potential.

He'd go bonkers in Yankee stadium.lol

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