Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

yort1919

Felix Hernandez 2014 Outlook

236 posts in this topic

How will King Felix do this upcoming season, being all of 27 years old when the 2014 season gets underway. Predicted numbers please...thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He'll have a very good season in terms of era, but probably an okay season in terms of W-L due to the fact that the Mariners have an awful offense. In my professional opinion, I'd say that he'll hover around a 3-3.5 ERA, and have a record of around 13-10.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It feels like this guy has been around forever, yet he is only 27. He's got a lot of mileage on that arm though, and I will not be drafting him like a top 3 pitcher this year. If he falls to me, sure, but I can think of about 7 other guys I'd rather have IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He'll have a very good season in terms of era, but probably an okay season in terms of W-L due to the fact that the Mariners have an awful offense. In my professional opinion, I'd say that he'll hover around a 3-3.5 ERA, and have a record of around 13-10.

:lol:

8 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He'll have a very good season in terms of era, but probably an okay season in terms of W-L due to the fact that the Mariners have an awful offense. In my professional opinion, I'd say that he'll hover around a 3-3.5 ERA, and have a record of around 13-10.

:lol:

And we've seen a proclamation from the poster that Justin Morneau is a 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2014 and Alfonso Soriano should play 2B for the Yanks this coming season.

I'm working on gathering info on what it takes to become a certified "professional".

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It feels like this guy has been around forever, yet he is only 27. He's got a lot of mileage on that arm though, and I will not be drafting him like a top 3 pitcher this year. If he falls to me, sure, but I can think of about 7 other guys I'd rather have IMO

However, now with the Cano signing, I think he loses more games 2-1 now instead of 2-0. Bump him up your draft board accordingly.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's always drafted as a top 3 or top 5 pitcher and there's just always other guys I like ahead of him. This year is the same as ever. He's good and safe but his WHIP's are usually slightly high for a top 5 pitcher investment. It's nitpicking but thats what you do when you have so many other equivalent options.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've had him for years in my keeper league and keep planning to deal him. It's so rare that a pitcher goes through his career without an arm issue, and I just feel like he's due for something soon.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, he's clearly my favorite player - just check the screenname! Mileage is an issue - while he's only 27, he's had a lot of work, and his delivery involves some torque before approaching the plate, so hopefully that doesn't lead to more back/oblique issues. Those being the negatives, Felix has a ton of fluidity in his delivery, even with the hitch it looks like he is not stressing his arm unduly. Also, even when dealing with lower velocity (as has been the case in patches over the last couple years, though he still can run it up in spots) the guy is just a phenomenal tactician with his pitches. He works every area of the zone, and truly is a master of his craft - as HOF inductee Greg Maddux showed, it isn't all about gunning it in at 98+. I'd rank him behind Kershaw, but if you take him as the 2nd SP off the board, no argument here (though I do like the NL guys like Strasburg who don't face a DH).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling that the Mariners are going to be next in the line of the 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays. Spend a lot of money and put some big names on paper, but the season falls apart quickly. He'll be the Mariners version of Josh Johnson and RA Dickey. Felix is much better than either of them and I don't think his numbers will be horrible, but definitely not what we've become used to from King Felix.

With that being said, he's one of the few non-Rangers in the AL west that I root for. An easy guy to like.

13W I 207IP I 210K I 3.53ERA I 1.21WHIP

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the thing here is the King finally has some mates to believe in. So there maybe be an extra motivation for him to lead this team and step up his game.

The positive side of that is he gets his 2nd Cy Young.

The negative side of that is he presses and gets hurts or struggles.

Personally, I am thinking/hoping he goes for a career year (and all his dynasty league owners can sell high in going into 2015).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling that the Mariners are going to be next in the line of the 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays. Spend a lot of money and put some big names on paper, but the season falls apart quickly. He'll be the Mariners version of Josh Johnson and RA Dickey. Felix is much better than either of them and I don't think his numbers will be horrible, but definitely not what we've become used to from King Felix.

With that being said, he's one of the few non-Rangers in the AL west that I root for. An easy guy to like.

13W I 207IP I 210K I 3.53ERA I 1.21WHIP

Big names. No big names. The Mariners always fall apart. Nothing new. But Felix keeps on delivering no matter what. I'd don't see his ERA and WHIP that high. He and Chris Sale both pitch on terrible teams. It is their bad fate karma or something. I don't care, I'll get Wins elsewhere. Just keep giving me strikes, ERA and WHIP. For those with him in leagues with QS, an extra bonus.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling that the Mariners are going to be next in the line of the 2012 Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays. Spend a lot of money and put some big names on paper, but the season falls apart quickly. He'll be the Mariners version of Josh Johnson and RA Dickey. Felix is much better than either of them and I don't think his numbers will be horrible, but definitely not what we've become used to from King Felix.

With that being said, he's one of the few non-Rangers in the AL west that I root for. An easy guy to like.

13W I 207IP I 210K I 3.53ERA I 1.21WHIP

Big names. No big names. The Mariners always fall apart. Nothing new. But Felix keeps on delivering no matter what. I'd don't see his ERA and WHIP that high. He and Chris Sale both pitch on terrible teams. It is their bad fate karma or something. I don't care, I'll get Wins elsewhere. Just keep giving me strikes, ERA and WHIP. For those with him in leagues with QS, an extra bonus.

He's already had a pretty similar year, and the defense behind him(besides cano) is going to be pretty pathetic. Especially if they sign Cruz and put either Hart/Cruz in the field. The alternative is Smoak at 1st with Hart DH, and that's equally crappy defenisvely. If they do sign Cruz then you've got 2 of Hart/Smoak/Cruz in the field instead of 1, and they're all bad defensively. Of course errors won't factor into his ERA, but not all bad defensive plays are errors.

I'm thinking this is the year when he finally starts to show some wear, and pitches through some lingering issues/rough starts with a 15 day DL stint thrown in there. Thus the 207IP instead of his usual 230ish IP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd rank him behind Kershaw, but if you take him as the 2nd SP off the board, no argument here (though I do like the NL guys like Strasburg who don't face a DH).

If you take him as the 2nd SP off the board, the rest of your league will love you long time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it sounds like everyone thinks hes going to start to lose something or that his back will still be an issue. Not trying to make this about me but as someone who has him on one of his teams do you think i should try to deal him for someone not ranked as high but with a better team behind him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overrated/overdrafted. Going by ESPN (because that's where I play so I can only go by that), he's ranked 29th; that's 3rd round in 10 or 12 team leagues. Let's take King Felix's number in the past 3 seasons and compare them to a guy like James Shields (who's ranked 83):

Felix:

39-33, 3.20 ERA, 661 Ks, 1.166 WHIP, in 670 IP.

Shields:

44-31, 3.15 ERA, 644 Ks, 1.146 WHIP, in 705 IP.

I probably wouldn't waste a 3rd round pick on Felix, which is what you will likely have to pay for him.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What he said ^

Overrated/overdrafted. Going by ESPN (because that's where I play so I can only go by that), he's ranked 29th; that's 3rd round in 10 or 12 team leagues. Let's take King Felix's number in the past 3 seasons and compare them to a guy like James Shields (who's ranked 83):

Felix:

39-33, 3.20 ERA, 661 Ks, 1.166 WHIP, in 670 IP.

Shields:

44-31, 3.15 ERA, 644 Ks, 1.146 WHIP, in 705 IP.

I probably wouldn't waste a 3rd round pick on Felix, which is what you will likely have to pay for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i love to watch him pitch. but yea, it seems where you draft him, he's just not a consideration for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Shields vs. Felix comparison is a little disingenuous. We all know pitcher Ws are a completely fluky stat. Further ERA can misrepresent the underlying skills of the SP. FIP, xFIP, K-rate -- those paint a different picture.

Shields' FIP (2011-2013): 3.42, 3.47, 3.47 -- in other words, a very consistent display of skills. His xFIP over the same period: 3.25, 3.24, 3.72. Yet his ERA varied from 2.82 to 3.52 during that time. His K/9 rate also dropped below 8 for the first time since 2009. Again, your three year metrics hide that fact. Perhaps most damning, he lost a full percent off his SWSTK% last year (10.9 to 9.8) and his O-Swing% likewise declined significantly (34.9 to 29.6). Not surprisingly, contact rate went up (76.3-78.2) while swing rate went down. Hitters saw the ball better against Shields, didn't chase as much, and hit the ball at a much better rate. And they weren't making cheap contact, evidenced by his career high 23.2 LD% (vs. 18.7% in 2012). SIERA also rose (not surprisingly) from 3.19 to 3.85 And yet, his ERA drops by nearly half a run (3.52 to 3.15)? Hmm.

Felix's FIP meanwhile: 3.13, 2.84, 2.61 - his underlying skills are actually improving (as we might expect of a player reaching his prime). His xFIP: 3.15, 3.20, 2.66. His ERA during that time: 3.47, 3.06, 3.04. I see a pattern. SWSTK%: 8.8%, 10.6%, 10.7%. Contact Rate: 80.1, 77.1, 76.3. LD% dropped from 22.5 to 21.4. GB% increased from 48.9 to 51.4. SIERA dropped from 3.20 to 2.84. Sure, he didn't win as many games over the past three years as Shields, but Shields won 31 of those games as a Ray, not with the Royals (where he won 13).

Go ahead and assume Felix and Shields are the same, but I'll take the guy on the three year upswing as opposed to the guy on decline. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

7 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Shields vs. Felix comparison is a little disingenuous. We all know pitcher Ws are a completely fluky stat. Further ERA can misrepresent the underlying skills of the SP. FIP, xFIP, K-rate -- those paint a different picture.

Shields' FIP (2011-2013): 3.42, 3.47, 3.47 -- in other words, a very consistent display of skills. His xFIP over the same period: 3.25, 3.24, 3.72. Yet his ERA varied from 2.82 to 3.52 during that time. His K/9 rate also dropped below 8 for the first time since 2009. Again, your three year metrics hide that fact. Perhaps most damning, he lost a full percent off his SWSTK% last year (10.9 to 9.8) and his O-Swing% likewise declined significantly (34.9 to 29.6). Not surprisingly, contact rate went up (76.3-78.2) while swing rate went down. Hitters saw the ball better against Shields, didn't chase as much, and hit the ball at a much better rate. And they weren't making cheap contact, evidenced by his career high 23.2 LD% (vs. 18.7% in 2012). SIERA also rose (not surprisingly) from 3.19 to 3.85 And yet, his ERA drops by nearly half a run (3.52 to 3.15)? Hmm.

Felix's FIP meanwhile: 3.13, 2.84, 2.61 - his underlying skills are actually improving (as we might expect of a player reaching his prime). His xFIP: 3.15, 3.20, 2.66. His ERA during that time: 3.47, 3.06, 3.04. I see a pattern. SWSTK%: 8.8%, 10.6%, 10.7%. Contact Rate: 80.1, 77.1, 76.3. LD% dropped from 22.5 to 21.4. GB% increased from 48.9 to 51.4. SIERA dropped from 3.20 to 2.84. Sure, he didn't win as many games over the past three years as Shields, but Shields won 31 of those games as a Ray, not with the Royals (where he won 13).

Go ahead and assume Felix and Shields are the same, but I'll take the guy on the three year upswing as opposed to the guy on decline. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

Felix > Shields, obviously in real life. But in fantasy, there's no category for FIP, xFIP, SWSTK, LD%, contact rate, GB%, and SIERA. Yes, metrics show how good you actually are. But in fantasy, I think the more common categories are Ws (even though they are fluky, they are still a category), ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves, Holds, QS. I do see what you're saying, but like I said, none of those things define what these guys have been in fantasy baseball in the past 3 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Shields vs. Felix comparison is a little disingenuous. We all know pitcher Ws are a completely fluky stat. Further ERA can misrepresent the underlying skills of the SP. FIP, xFIP, K-rate -- those paint a different picture.

Shields' FIP (2011-2013): 3.42, 3.47, 3.47 -- in other words, a very consistent display of skills. His xFIP over the same period: 3.25, 3.24, 3.72. Yet his ERA varied from 2.82 to 3.52 during that time. His K/9 rate also dropped below 8 for the first time since 2009. Again, your three year metrics hide that fact. Perhaps most damning, he lost a full percent off his SWSTK% last year (10.9 to 9.8) and his O-Swing% likewise declined significantly (34.9 to 29.6). Not surprisingly, contact rate went up (76.3-78.2) while swing rate went down. Hitters saw the ball better against Shields, didn't chase as much, and hit the ball at a much better rate. And they weren't making cheap contact, evidenced by his career high 23.2 LD% (vs. 18.7% in 2012). SIERA also rose (not surprisingly) from 3.19 to 3.85 And yet, his ERA drops by nearly half a run (3.52 to 3.15)? Hmm.

Felix's FIP meanwhile: 3.13, 2.84, 2.61 - his underlying skills are actually improving (as we might expect of a player reaching his prime). His xFIP: 3.15, 3.20, 2.66. His ERA during that time: 3.47, 3.06, 3.04. I see a pattern. SWSTK%: 8.8%, 10.6%, 10.7%. Contact Rate: 80.1, 77.1, 76.3. LD% dropped from 22.5 to 21.4. GB% increased from 48.9 to 51.4. SIERA dropped from 3.20 to 2.84. Sure, he didn't win as many games over the past three years as Shields, but Shields won 31 of those games as a Ray, not with the Royals (where he won 13).

Go ahead and assume Felix and Shields are the same, but I'll take the guy on the three year upswing as opposed to the guy on decline. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

Felix > Shields, obviously in real life. But in fantasy, there's no category for FIP, xFIP, SWSTK, LD%, contact rate, GB%, and SIERA. Yes, metrics show how good you actually are. But in fantasy, I think the more common categories are Ws (even though they are fluky, they are still a category), ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves, Holds, QS. I do see what you're saying, but like I said, none of those things define what these guys have been in fantasy baseball in the past 3 years.

This may be more of a testament to Shields.

In any case, Felix has apparently worked out with Pablo Sandoval's trainer over the winter. The focus was on lower body strength, as he felt he came into too light the last two years.

Take the 'best shape of their career' stories with a grain of salt. However if velocity is back up then Felix could be in for a better year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Shields vs. Felix comparison is a little disingenuous. We all know pitcher Ws are a completely fluky stat. Further ERA can misrepresent the underlying skills of the SP. FIP, xFIP, K-rate -- those paint a different picture.

Shields' FIP (2011-2013): 3.42, 3.47, 3.47 -- in other words, a very consistent display of skills. His xFIP over the same period: 3.25, 3.24, 3.72. Yet his ERA varied from 2.82 to 3.52 during that time. His K/9 rate also dropped below 8 for the first time since 2009. Again, your three year metrics hide that fact. Perhaps most damning, he lost a full percent off his SWSTK% last year (10.9 to 9.8) and his O-Swing% likewise declined significantly (34.9 to 29.6). Not surprisingly, contact rate went up (76.3-78.2) while swing rate went down. Hitters saw the ball better against Shields, didn't chase as much, and hit the ball at a much better rate. And they weren't making cheap contact, evidenced by his career high 23.2 LD% (vs. 18.7% in 2012). SIERA also rose (not surprisingly) from 3.19 to 3.85 And yet, his ERA drops by nearly half a run (3.52 to 3.15)? Hmm.

Felix's FIP meanwhile: 3.13, 2.84, 2.61 - his underlying skills are actually improving (as we might expect of a player reaching his prime). His xFIP: 3.15, 3.20, 2.66. His ERA during that time: 3.47, 3.06, 3.04. I see a pattern. SWSTK%: 8.8%, 10.6%, 10.7%. Contact Rate: 80.1, 77.1, 76.3. LD% dropped from 22.5 to 21.4. GB% increased from 48.9 to 51.4. SIERA dropped from 3.20 to 2.84. Sure, he didn't win as many games over the past three years as Shields, but Shields won 31 of those games as a Ray, not with the Royals (where he won 13).

Go ahead and assume Felix and Shields are the same, but I'll take the guy on the three year upswing as opposed to the guy on decline. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

Felix > Shields, obviously in real life. But in fantasy, there's no category for FIP, xFIP, SWSTK, LD%, contact rate, GB%, and SIERA. Yes, metrics show how good you actually are. But in fantasy, I think the more common categories are Ws (even though they are fluky, they are still a category), ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves, Holds, QS. I do see what you're saying, but like I said, none of those things define what these guys have been in fantasy baseball in the past 3 years.

I can't believe this is actually an argument. Sure, I get your point -- there's not a FIP category, or a SWSTK% category. But the bottom line is those are a FAR better predictor of future performance than the prior year's ERA or Wins.

You take Shields. I'll take Felix.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Shields vs. Felix comparison is a little disingenuous. We all know pitcher Ws are a completely fluky stat. Further ERA can misrepresent the underlying skills of the SP. FIP, xFIP, K-rate -- those paint a different picture.

Shields' FIP (2011-2013): 3.42, 3.47, 3.47 -- in other words, a very consistent display of skills. His xFIP over the same period: 3.25, 3.24, 3.72. Yet his ERA varied from 2.82 to 3.52 during that time. His K/9 rate also dropped below 8 for the first time since 2009. Again, your three year metrics hide that fact. Perhaps most damning, he lost a full percent off his SWSTK% last year (10.9 to 9.8) and his O-Swing% likewise declined significantly (34.9 to 29.6). Not surprisingly, contact rate went up (76.3-78.2) while swing rate went down. Hitters saw the ball better against Shields, didn't chase as much, and hit the ball at a much better rate. And they weren't making cheap contact, evidenced by his career high 23.2 LD% (vs. 18.7% in 2012). SIERA also rose (not surprisingly) from 3.19 to 3.85 And yet, his ERA drops by nearly half a run (3.52 to 3.15)? Hmm.

Felix's FIP meanwhile: 3.13, 2.84, 2.61 - his underlying skills are actually improving (as we might expect of a player reaching his prime). His xFIP: 3.15, 3.20, 2.66. His ERA during that time: 3.47, 3.06, 3.04. I see a pattern. SWSTK%: 8.8%, 10.6%, 10.7%. Contact Rate: 80.1, 77.1, 76.3. LD% dropped from 22.5 to 21.4. GB% increased from 48.9 to 51.4. SIERA dropped from 3.20 to 2.84. Sure, he didn't win as many games over the past three years as Shields, but Shields won 31 of those games as a Ray, not with the Royals (where he won 13).

Go ahead and assume Felix and Shields are the same, but I'll take the guy on the three year upswing as opposed to the guy on decline. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

Felix > Shields, obviously in real life. But in fantasy, there's no category for FIP, xFIP, SWSTK, LD%, contact rate, GB%, and SIERA. Yes, metrics show how good you actually are. But in fantasy, I think the more common categories are Ws (even though they are fluky, they are still a category), ERA, WHIP, Ks, Saves, Holds, QS. I do see what you're saying, but like I said, none of those things define what these guys have been in fantasy baseball in the past 3 years.

I can't believe this is actually an argument. Sure, I get your point -- there's not a FIP category, or a SWSTK% category. But the bottom line is those are a FAR better predictor of future performance than the prior year's ERA or Wins.

You take Shields. I'll take Felix.

I think you're assuming we are saying we would take Shields over Felix. That is where you are wrong. I think it's pretty obvious that Shields in 7th or 8th round is far better value than Felix in the 3rd.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites