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munde53

Keenan Allen 2014 Season Outlook

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Allen was one of the waiver wire darlings of the 2013 season, as well as being a steal from the 2013 NFL draft. A projected 1st round pick slipped into the 3rd with concerns about injuries and speed.

The rookie started the season as the #4 WR on the depth chart it took an injury to Malcom Floyd for Allen's playing time to increase. He stole the lead job and never looked back.

In those 13 games Allen posted a 68/1,016/8 line. If you stretch that out to a full 16 games 84/1,251/10 line which translates to top 10 production.

Ken Whisenhunt has departed which could hurt Allen's status. Whisenhunt has a history of WRs thriving within his system. Larry Fitzgerald has seen a steep decline in production since Whisenhunt left Arizona. Could the same thing happen to Allen?

Can he continue his run and secure "elite" status?

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I was thinking about this while watching the game on Sunday. I know it's not apples to apples, but the whole Mike Williams of 2011 scenario scares me a little bit.

While I think Keenan's situation is better (QB, 1st round talent that fell due to injury), I also think the situation will already be factored into his price - meaning, he is likely projected to go for more than Mike Williams did in 2011.

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

I will probably still look to buy, but not sure how much I would be willing to spend given the risk.

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Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

With the exception of Floyd and Alexander, Allen was competing with all of them this season and still produced exceptionally.

Alexander is a FA and more than likely will not be retained. Floyd may very well be done with football or at least SD.

I don't see competition being an issue for Allen next season.

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Good point on Floyd. I did not think about that.

For some reason, people are making it seem like Alexander is almost a certainty to return. That's why I included an asterisk by his name.

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Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

With the exception of Floyd and Alexander, Allen was competing with all of them this season and still produced exceptionally.

Alexander is a FA and more than likely will not be retained. Floyd may very well be done with football or at least SD.

I don't see competition being an issue for Allen next season.

Agreed - if I'm going to be worried about anything when it comes to KAllen, it's going to be just an overall sophomore slump (for whatever reason). It also obviously matters what his price is at the draft table this August. The one thing I'm not going to worry about is Allen losing significant looks and receptions to an aging Gates & Floyd, injured DX (who is also a FA and probably won't be back) or average talents like VBrown and Royal.

I wouldn't worry too much about the loss of Whis - Mike McCoy is an offensive minded HC and knows how to run a passing offense. Maybe Norv Turner back to SD as OC? Ryan Matthews would be thrilled....

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Don't think I would take him top 10 but if everything stays the same I definetly think he falls in the 11 to 20 range. I just can't trust a guy that has only played one year and had injury issues in college as my number 1 wr.

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I was thinking about this while watching the game on Sunday. I know it's not apples to apples, but the whole Mike Williams of 2011 scenario scares me a little bit.

While I think Keenan's situation is better (QB, 1st round talent that fell due to injury), I also think the situation will already be factored into his price - meaning, he is likely projected to go for more than Mike Williams did in 2011.

Aside from Wiz leaving, there's also the risk of the water running dry with Rivers and him going back to being inconsistent. Not to mention, exponentially better receiving talent (Gates, Floyd, Green, V. Brown, Woodhead, Royal, Alexander*) means spreading the ball around more.

I will probably still look to buy, but not sure how much I would be willing to spend given the risk.

Yeah, I rode Keenan Allen (and Gordon) to championships in a few leagues, but I doubt I'll buy as high as some people are projecting Allen next season. I will be keeping him in my keeper league (keep 4-6) if that helps anyone with judging "value".

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Don't think I would take him top 10 but if everything stays the same I definetly think he falls in the 11 to 20 range. I just can't trust a guy that has only played one year and had injury issues in college as my number 1 wr.

I don't think anyone is arguing he'll be in the taken within the top 10 of WRs, but he very well could finish there.

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He'll be a very solid WR2 most likely, but that's it.

Great receiver, but his production spiked when Alexander and Floyd went down. I imagine those guys will get their fair share of targets. Allen will still get his, but I don't see him as a 100/1,400/10 guy

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He'll be a very solid WR2 most likely, but that's it.

Great receiver, but his production spiked when Alexander and Floyd went down. I imagine those guys will get their fair share of targets. Allen will still get his, but I don't see him as a 100/1,400/10 guy

DX and Floyd may not even be with the team next year. Both are coming off very serious injuries and even then, Floyd isn't going to threaten Keenan Allen. Maybe Alexander. And that's a very strong maybe.

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Hey guys! New to these forums. Just wanted to chime that the guy has a serious set of skills. I think he could very well overcome the sophomore slump. Also, to be honest, I don't think Floyd and Alexander are relevant enough names anymore to warrant the team keeping them in the spotlight. I don't think they'll have any trouble kicking them to the curb. Not only that, but Rivers has had the better part of the season to gain chemistry with Allen alone. I can definitely see him hitting the 1400/10 mark. Still wouldn't draft him top 10 though.

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The Union-Tribune San Diego reports Chargers WR Malcom Floyd's neck injury could be career-ending.

Floyd was placed on injured reserve in Week 2 and acknowledged that he still deals with neck pain caused by the open-field hit. The injury is considered one that players can come back from, but Floyd has yet to be cleared to resume football activities and will visit with a doctor next month to determine his future. "I definitely want to play again," Floyd said. "If my body allows me to play, I'm going to do it."

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I'm just going to throw a few parts from the story out there that weren't in the rotoworld writeup. Football aside, hopefully Floyd fully recovers:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/jan/16/malcom-floyd-chargers-neck-career-wide-receiver/

Malcom Floyd, after four months, still wears a neck brace to bed every night. He still deals with pain from an open-field hit that ended his season. He still waits to know if he can return to the game.

.....

"As soon I got hit, my limbs went limp," Floyd said then. "It seems like those prayers were answered because I could be in a wheelchair right now. I'm up and walking and ready to get better every day."

He and his wife had their third child, a daughter, on Nov. 14. All three are ages 4 and under.

More time at home has been the one positive to an injury for which Floyd said there currently is no timetable.

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I'm just going to throw a few parts from the story out there that weren't in the rotoworld writeup. Football aside, hopefully Floyd fully recovers:

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/jan/16/malcom-floyd-chargers-neck-career-wide-receiver/

Malcom Floyd, after four months, still wears a neck brace to bed every night. He still deals with pain from an open-field hit that ended his season. He still waits to know if he can return to the game.

.....

"As soon I got hit, my limbs went limp," Floyd said then. "It seems like those prayers were answered because I could be in a wheelchair right now. I'm up and walking and ready to get better every day."

He and his wife had their third child, a daughter, on Nov. 14. All three are ages 4 and under.

More time at home has been the one positive to an injury for which Floyd said there currently is no timetable.

For his sake I really hope he doesn't return.

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I think we pretty much agree on 3 points:

1. It's hard to justify drafting him in the top 10. It's more of an indication of how deep WR is nowadays, it's really nothing against him.

2. There's always some uncertainty when you have an OC who maximizes the passing game like Whiz did in 2013 that leaves, on what happens in 2014. That's fair.

3. BUT, the whole talk about DX (who I loved having in 2012 FTR, and still own in dynasty - although likely not for long) & Floyd threatening his production is totally off-base. DX is coming off an ACL tear to his "good" right knee (he had FIVE surgeries on the left knee IIRC), and there is no guarantee he will have the same skills after this - and there's no guaranteed $ lost or committed - he's not under contract for 2014. Same situation for Floyd with no guaranteed $ left on his contract, and who is really not looking good given where he's at recovery-wise, as covered above. The Bolts have a ton of needs for their O-line, D-line and secondary - anyone who carries even a little bit of overpricing and no cap hit is likely gone. Maybe DX signs for the league minimum, but otherwise it's easy to see them parting ways, given he can't stay on the field consistently.

Bottom line - it's doubtful Allen will go in the top 10 WR taken in most drafts. And that's appropriate. He could easily crack the top 10 result-wise when it's all said & done, but it's all about maximizing return on investment. If he's there in the 12-18 range most are talking about, I'm all over that. If he goes way early, I won't shed a tear - I'll thank him for his great 2013 season from the WW. As a redraft & dynasty owner, though, it's important to understand that ultimately, I think his skill set is always going to put him in the discussion to be close to the top 10, and barring injury, his floor looks awfully safe.

WR2 with WR1-ceiling production seems to be an entirely fair assessment for 2014.

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with DX's news, Keenan gets a bump, both in topic and his 2014 outlook...

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I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR, but he's a high end #2 WR with potential to put up WR 1 points with the right match up. I think people will over pay for him though.

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I think the key is that he will potentially be a target hog next season. Even if Rivers declines again he should be able to shot-put it up to Allen a good 9-10x / game, I like those odds with his skill set.

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Wasn't he better than his NFL Draft spot? Was it an injury that hurt his stock or the combine maybe? I remember reading he had first round talent.

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guys with unusually high TDs for there overall number of targets worry me. It is rarely sustainable.

Will have to see his price. Colts are doing a lot of runs to hide there pitiful secondary.

agree with WR2.

* hope floyd retires...........him and finely both.

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Yes hes on no 20 for the early 2014 prediction for wide recievers as It's hard to justify drafting him in the top 10

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There is a significant amount of upside to be had outside the Top-36 wideouts and there are potential starting-caliber receivers as deep as the 60s.

Did you intend to link to a week 21 ranking chart? From what I could see that site didn't have any 2014 rankings whatsoever. He's definitely a top 20 WR for next season. The number 20 WR in my league from last year was Riley Cooper. Allen is 10x better than Cooper. Allen finished #16 while not starting the first few games of the season, I see no reason why he cannot finish in a similar position next season. Also if you're looking for a starting caliber WR in the top 60 range, you're looking at starting Ted Ginn, Robert Woods, Jerome Simpson, or Tavon Austin. I would hardly consider any of them starting caliber.

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From the front page:

Former NFL scout Matt Williamson says Keenan Allen "could be close to his ceiling already."

"As much as I like Allen, to ask him to improve dramatically in one season may be asking too much," said Williamson. "He's a really good receiver, but he does not have the athletic ability of an A.J. Green or a Julio Jones." It's a fair point. Allen wins with his route-running and hands, not elite speed or athletic ability. It could lead to defenses sitting all over underneath patterns. And with the Chargers implementing a run-heavy approach, we wouldn't expect a huge leap off last year's eye-opening 76-1175-10 line.

I doubt he's hit his statistical ceiling due to the fact that the Chargers didn't start featuring him until 4 games into the season. I think he's a 1200 yard 10 TD type guy, who at some point in his career will peak and have a season something like 1400-1500 yards and 13-16 TDs.

The fact that he wins with route running makes him a more consistant choice at WR than burners like DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace. There have been WR's who have been great route runners that were productive for years (Wes Welker, Wayne Chrebet, Jerry Rice).

The biggest concern in the short term will be the loss of Ken Whisenhunt as Offensive Coordinator. Whisenhunt worked wonders last year rejuvenating Phillip Rivers. Frank Reich was promoted from within to become the new OC, with the idea that their would be continuity with last years system.

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Frank Reich was promoted from within to become the new OC, with the idea that their would be continuity with last years system.

He was the QB coach last year, so I totally agree that continuity will exist from Whiz's offense. If they brought in an outsider, we would have a whole new set of Criteria to take into account.

So while I agree with the blurb that he may have reached his ceiling from a skills perspective, that ceiling is still high - higher than most receivers in the league. I think putting him 10th-12th in ranking is fair, understanding that if he does better than last year he will end up higher, but if he stays on the same course as last year then that placing is viable.

I'm surprised that RW keeps referring to a Run-Heavy scheme change. This was at the beginning of the season last year the most prolific passing offense - meaning they threw so so so many more times than ran to begin the season. By the end of the season when Mathews really started to come along, they were more balanced, maybe even a little more towards the run. But saying they will be run heavy I think is a slight exaggeration. They may be more balanced and play a little more like they did at the end of the season last year - but that was when Keenan got a ton of the RZ and TD looks. Whose to say this guy doesnt get 12 TDs next season? Sure he is just as likely to get 6 or 8, but I think this offesne (and team) is trending upward, and this insistance on Run Heavy attack for 2014 skews the perception on Allen's potential output...

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Allen was the most polished route runner in last season's rookie WR crop. WRs whose production is based on superior route running typically have more reliable production than those who rely solely on the offensive scheme, the elite QB, pure speed or brute strength and size. It's encouraging to read so many posts and so many rankings that envision Allen regressing as that lowers his price for value seekers like me.

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