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Iron-cock

Josh Gordon 2014 Season Outlook

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Josh Gordon 2014 Season Outlook

Height: 6'3

Weight: 225 lbs (102 kg)

Age: 22

40 Time: 4.4 (4.37?)

Strengths: All pro WR skill set.

Weaknesses: Marijuana, Opiates, Being on the Cleveland Browns.

Josh-Gordon-200x300.jpg

Gordon roughly doubled his numbers from his 2012 rookie season in 2013, going for a league leading 1,646 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns despite playing only 14 games and facing criticism during the previous offseason. Gordon also became the first WR to have back to back 200 yard receiving games in NFL history and broke the Browns all time single season receiving record.

Gordon has put himself in the conversation for consideration as the #1 WR in fantasy football with his 2013 performance.

nfl-trade-rumors-josh-gordon-cleveland-browns.jpg

Gordon will face many challenges in the upcoming 2014 season.

He has lost his head coach, he will likely lose his offensive coordinator (Norv Turner) and could find himself in a new system. On top of that, he may have a new QB throwing to him. While it's widely assumed that any QB couldn't be worse than the situation Cleveland had last year, it is entirely possible the organization drafts and commits to a rookie QB.

After having positive drug tests in college. Gordon has had two more in the NFL. Gordon is believed to be in stage three of the NFL drug testing program, in which he faces a year long suspension for another positive test. His latest NFL suspension was for codeine which he said was contained in cough syrup prescribed for strep throat.

josh-gordon-nfl-record-cleveland-browns.jpg

More on Josh Gordon (Mostly from last offseason, everyone knows what he did this year, right?):

http://www.cleveland...cism_of_br.html

http://espncleveland...7&post_id=19191

http://www.cleveland...sh_gordo_1.html

http://www.cleveland...cism_of_br.html

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Loved owning him in 2013, but he will not be on any of my teams next year unless he falls to the third round (which is not going to happen).

The price tag is simply too high for a guy who's had one good season and will be going into a year in which he'll have a new QB, head coach, offensive coordinator, etc.

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Josh Gordon COULD be the #1 receiver. However, he needs to learn how to catch the football much better.

I had the same impression watching him in the Jets game. The Browns force fed him the ball a few times and he just couldn't come down with it.

Statistically, his drops look similar percentagewise to Megatron's though:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

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Highly doubt Gordon is number 1 again next year. Just look at past history. Only guy that I can remember to repeat as the top fantasy WR was Calvin.

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Highly doubt Gordon is number 1 again next year. Just look at past history. Only guy that I can remember to repeat as the top fantasy WR was Calvin.

Interesting, I'd thought about this with running backs but not as much with WRs. I went back and checked. Here are the leaders by yardage. Most of the time they would be the fantasy scoring leader for WRs, except for when there is a touchdown gap between #1 and #2. I listed two of those instances, but there were more.

2013: Gordon - 1646

2012: Megatron - 1964

2011: Megatron - 1681

2010: Brandon Lloyd - 1448

2009: Andre Johnson - 1569

2008: Andre Johnson - 1575

2007: Regie Wayne - 1510 (Moss had 23 TDs this year and was second in yards)

2006: Chad Johnson - 1369

2005: Steve Smith - 1563

2004: Muhsin Muhammad - 1405

2003: Torry Holt - 1696 (Moss had 17 TDs this year and was second in yards)

So you're right, typically WR's don't repeat but often they're fantasy relevant for years to come if they manage to lead the league in WR yardage once.

What I find interesting about Gordon is that like Randy Moss he's doing this while he's young. Most WR's take a few years to break out. Gordon appears to be very gifted. Also the fact that he put up the numbers he did in only 14 games is pretty amazing.

I still have Calvin Johnson as my #1 WR next year, but it's in pencil this year as opposed to pen in years past. If the Browns manage to manufacture a good QB/Coaching situation for Gordon I'll at least have to think about him being the #1 WR.

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If the Browns draft a QB in the 1st round this year, which QB do you think would benefit Gordon's 2014 numbers the most?

I'm thinking Manziel, but I'm not entirely sure.

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We have to look at the big picture a little more. Who is his QB? The Browns have 2 first rounders and NEED a QB, they have to draft one, right? Unless they trade for someone like cousins, let's look at the potentials. I don't follow college football much so please help me out a bit.

Bridgewater and Manziel are both projected as big possibilities for the Browns. I also saw one analyst put the browns drafting Derek Carr in the 26th slot.

How do these three QB's or other potentials match up with Gordons style? Who are Gordon owners aiming for?

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If Carr is the QB I am running away. Manziel has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers and Bridgewater seems like the most ready Pro so they would be my picks to trust a rookie QB, but I would be nervous. If a veteran is the signal caller for some reason then I would be tempted to gamble on Gordon.

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Did he really run a 4.4 40, I haven't looked it up since I made my rookie draft board the year he came out and I thought he was around a 4.5-4.6.

Edit: That is also one of the most in depth original posts I've seen on this board.

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Strengths: All pro WR skill set.

Weaknesses: Marijuana, Opiates, Being on the Cleveland Browns.

I'd definitely take Calvin Johnson over Gordon at this point, and it's not even close.

The Browns don't even have a head coach yet. No one wants to touch that job.

The sheer level of Gordon's success was a product of the offense that the previous coaches were running, and the team sucking.

With those coaches now gone, this team's game plan on offense could look completely different next season.

Let's not forget why Gordon's role as a deep threat was predictable even before the start of last season: Norv Turner's offenses have recently relied on stretching the field with a deep passing attack that previously made Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Slotting a receiver of Gordon's physical talent into that offense was a good bet for similar results.

But take that system away, and Gordon's ceiling is potentially lower next year (completely unknown because of the current coaching staff lolfest that is the Browns). If he's potentially only going to put up ~1,200 receiving yards and 8 TDs next season, is that worth a 1st Round pick like Megatron, etc.?

Heck, at the moment I'd almost rather draft Alshon Jeffery ahead of Gordon (I wouldn't, specifically because Cutler was resigned and he's BFF's with Brandon Marshall).

And Gordon was on both of my teams last season, and I still say this (Calvin was on my teams in 2011, Brandon Marshall on mine during 2012, and Gordon during 2013 - my track record at picking good WR's is actually pretty awesome, partially because my primary league starts 3 WRs so a consistent advantage at that position is important).

I love Josh Gordon's upside, but ho-lee-fook 1st Round / #1 WR to go in a fantasy draft without knowing who the coach / offensive coordinator are even going to be?

That's not even madness. That's stupidity.

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The sheer level of Gordon's success was a product of the offense that the previous coaches were running, and the team sucking.

Ok but...

Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Slotting a receiver of Gordon's physical talent into that offense was a good bet for similar results.

I'll give you Vjax and DX, but was Floyd a fantasy star at some point? Also, if Gordon was only a product of his system, do you think the same of VJAX and DX? VJax is obviously talented regardless of what system he is in. I think Gordon may be the same type of player.

And Gordon was on both of my teams last season, and I still say this (Calvin was on my teams in 2011, Brandon Marshall on mine during 2012, and Gordon during 2013 - my track record at picking good WR's is actually pretty awesome, partially because my primary league starts 3 WRs so a consistent advantage at that position is important).

Yeah I had Gordon on all of my teams. Had Desean Jackson on one team this year too, had Marshall in his first year with the Bears also. I don't know if I can take credit though, part of this might be from reading your preseason posts. :)

I love Josh Gordon's upside, but ho-lee-fook 1st Round / #1 WR to go in a fantasy draft without knowing who the coach / offensive coordinator are even going to be?

That's not even madness. That's stupidity.

Calm down bro, it's the offseason (for fantasy). Mr. Gordon needs a thread, and he was the #1 WR this year despite playing only 14 games, so discussing if he should be the #1 WR is probably fair game. All your points are fair ones and I believe I brought them up as well. The Browns are a clusterf*** trapped inside a dumpster fire. But we still can think about where he's going to be drafted for fun, right?

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If Carr is the QB I am running away. Manziel has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers and Bridgewater seems like the most ready Pro so they would be my picks to trust a rookie QB, but I would be nervous. If a veteran is the signal caller for some reason then I would be tempted to gamble on Gordon.

No rookie QB is going to be worse than Weeden/Campbell. Remember, Hoyer is also there. I hope that Cleveland drafts a rookie QB and people get all down on them so that Gordon can slip to the 3rd round...unlikely to happen, but you never know.

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Did he really run a 4.4 40,

I'm not sure, that is what it has on his wiki, but I don't know if that is an offical time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josh_Gordon

Gordon claimed his fastest 40 ever was a 4.37.

I haven't looked it up since I made my rookie draft board the year he came out and I thought he was around a 4.5-4.6.

Edit: That is also one of the most in depth original posts I've seen on this board.

Thanks!

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Josh Gordon 2014 Season Outlook

Height: 6'3

Weight: 225 lbs (102 kg)

Age: 22

40 Time: 4.4 (4.37?)

Strengths: All pro WR skill set.

Weaknesses: Marijuana, Opiates, Being on the Cleveland Browns.

Josh-Gordon-200x300.jpg

Gordon roughly doubled his numbers from his 2012 rookie season in 2013, going for a league leading 1,646 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns despite playing only 14 games and facing criticism during the previous offseason. Gordon also became the first WR to have back to back 200 yard receiving games in NFL history and broke the Browns all time single season receiving record.

Gordon has put himself in the conversation for consideration as the #1 WR in fantasy football with his 2013 performance.

nfl-trade-rumors-josh-gordon-cleveland-browns.jpg

Gordon will face many challenges in the upcoming 2014 season.

He has lost his head coach, he will likely lose his offensive coordinator (Norv Turner) and could find himself in a new system. On top of that, he may have a new QB throwing to him. While it's widely assumed that any QB couldn't be worse than the situation Cleveland had last year, it is entirely possible the organization drafts and commits to a rookie QB.

After having positive drug tests in college. Gordon has had two more in the NFL. Gordon is believed to be in stage three of the NFL drug testing program, in which he faces a year long suspension for another positive test. His latest NFL suspension was for codeine which he said was contained in cough syrup prescribed for strep throat.

josh-gordon-nfl-record-cleveland-browns.jpg

More on Josh Gordon (Mostly from last offseason, everyone knows what he did this year, right?):

http://www.cleveland...cism_of_br.html

http://espncleveland...7&post_id=19191

http://www.cleveland...sh_gordo_1.html

http://www.cleveland...cism_of_br.html

Very nice post, magazine worthy!

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No one here has elaborated on his off-field issues yet? One slip-up. ONE. And he is most likely done for the season. That's reason enough for me to leave him alone. There's plenty more choices to make at WR that are a whole lot safer than Gordon. Dude's a stud for sure. I'm not arguing that at all. I just can't put myself out there for someone who's failed to stay out of trouble so many times.

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Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Slotting a receiver of Gordon's physical talent into that offense was a good bet for similar results.

I'll give you Vjax and DX, but was Floyd a fantasy star at some point? Also, if Gordon was only a product of his system, do you think the same of VJAX and DX? VJax is obviously talented regardless of what system he is in. I think Gordon may be the same type of player.

http://www.nfl.com/p...2505785/profile

2013:

http://www.nfl.com/p...505785/gamelogs

Had a 5-catch, 102-yard game.

2012:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2012

Scored 5 TDs, had a 6-catch 109-yard game, and a 5-catch 102-yard game. I think this was the Ryan Mathews broken collarbone year. DX came on at the end of this season as well.

2011:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2011

Scored 5 TDs, had a 3-catch 100-yard game, a 5-catch 107-yard game, a 4-catch 108-yard game, a 5-catch 96-yard game, a 6-catch 95-yard game, and a 7-catch 127-yard game.

2010:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2010

Scored 6 TDs, had a 3-catch 95-yard game, a 6-catch 97-yard game, and 8-catch 213-yard game.

2009:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2009

Scored 1 TD, had a 9-catch 140-yard game.

==================================

Now, if you look through all those links, what you'll notice is that Malcom Floyd:

A) Missed a considerable amount of time to various injuries (if I remember, a lot of them were hamstring strains/pulls).

B) Was sharing field time with Vincent Jackson.

C) Was sharing field time with Antonio Gates.

Malcom Floyd was a good fantasy WR for the beginning of the 2010 season. That was the season VJax was holding out in SD, so Malcom Floyd was their #1 WR.

VJax held out most of the regular season, returning to active status Week 14.

That means in 2010, for the first 13-weeks, Malcom Floyd was the #1 WR.

However, you have to take into account:

A) Week 10 bye.

B) Malcom Floyd was injured during the Week 6 game (likely very early into the game, as he only posted a 2-catch 15-yard statline for that game).

C) That injury caused Malcom Floyd to sit out until after the Week 10 bye, and he clearly wasn't 100% upon returning: Week 11 he posted a 2-catch, 24-yard statline, plus a TD. It appears that he left the game early in Week 12, receiving only one target that game and posting a donut for a statline. Probably aggravated the injury.

D) VJax returned in Week 13. Floyd posted a 5-for-72 statline that week, and posted a 4-for-51 plus 2 TD statline in Week 14.

E) Floyd missed the next two games due to aggravating his injury again.

F) He returned for the Week 17 game to post a 2-for-57 statline.

That's actually pretty good considering he kept getting injured. When he was healthy at the beginning of the season, before the injury, these were his statlines with VJax not on the field:

Week 1: 3-for-48

Week 2: 3-for-95 + 1 TD

Week 3: 6-for-97 + 1 TD

Week 4: 2-for-45

Week 5: 8-for-213 + 1 TD

That's a solid 80-yards per game average when he was healthy and the #1 WR on his team. Additionally, he had some upside because him and Antonio Gates were their primary redzone targets.

He was a little bit like the Alshon Jeffery to VJax's Brandon Marshall. The problem was, they relied a lot more on Antonio Gates than the Bears do on Martellus Bennett. So Floyd was usually the 3rd target in the passing game, not the 2nd like Alshon.

Last stop: Malcom Floyd's average yards-per-catch each season since 2008:

2008: 17.2

2009: 17.2

2010: 19.4

2011: 19.9

2012: 14.5

Josh Gordon's YPC:

2012: 16.1

2013: 18.9

It's how Norv Turner offenses work. The chuck the ball downfield a LOT.

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And you do remember that DX performing big basically came out of nowhere, after having been with the Rams for multiple seasons and being a disappointment, right?

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1 strike away from long suspension is enough to keep me away. His ADP will be way too high with that kind of risk hanging over his head. Oh yeah, and the QB problem.

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Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Slotting a receiver of Gordon's physical talent into that offense was a good bet for similar results.

I'll give you Vjax and DX, but was Floyd a fantasy star at some point? Also, if Gordon was only a product of his system, do you think the same of VJAX and DX? VJax is obviously talented regardless of what system he is in. I think Gordon may be the same type of player.

http://www.nfl.com/p...2505785/profile

2013:

http://www.nfl.com/p...505785/gamelogs

Had a 5-catch, 102-yard game.

2012:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2012

Scored 5 TDs, had a 6-catch 109-yard game, and a 5-catch 102-yard game. I think this was the Ryan Mathews broken collarbone year. DX came on at the end of this season as well.

2011:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2011

Scored 5 TDs, had a 3-catch 100-yard game, a 5-catch 107-yard game, a 4-catch 108-yard game, a 5-catch 96-yard game, a 6-catch 95-yard game, and a 7-catch 127-yard game.

2010:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2010

Scored 6 TDs, had a 3-catch 95-yard game, a 6-catch 97-yard game, and 8-catch 213-yard game.

2009:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2009

Scored 1 TD, had a 9-catch 140-yard game.

==================================

Now, if you look through all those links, what you'll notice is that Malcom Floyd:

A) Missed a considerable amount of time to various injuries (if I remember, a lot of them were hamstring strains/pulls).

B) Was sharing field time with Vincent Jackson.

C) Was sharing field time with Antonio Gates.

Malcom Floyd was a good fantasy WR for the beginning of the 2010 season. That was the season VJax was holding out in SD, so Malcom Floyd was their #1 WR.

VJax held out most of the regular season, returning to active status Week 14.

That means in 2010, for the first 13-weeks, Malcom Floyd was the #1 WR.

However, you have to take into account:

A) Week 10 bye.

B) Malcom Floyd was injured during the Week 6 game (likely very early into the game, as he only posted a 2-catch 15-yard statline for that game).

C) That injury caused Malcom Floyd to sit out until after the Week 10 bye, and he clearly wasn't 100% upon returning: Week 11 he posted a 2-catch, 24-yard statline, plus a TD. It appears that he left the game early in Week 12, receiving only one target that game and posting a donut for a statline. Probably aggravated the injury.

D) VJax returned in Week 13. Floyd posted a 5-for-72 statline that week, and posted a 4-for-51 plus 2 TD statline in Week 14.

E) Floyd missed the next two games due to aggravating his injury again.

F) He returned for the Week 17 game to post a 2-for-57 statline.

That's actually pretty good considering he kept getting injured. When he was healthy at the beginning of the season, before the injury, these were his statlines with VJax not on the field:

Week 1: 3-for-48

Week 2: 3-for-95 + 1 TD

Week 3: 6-for-97 + 1 TD

Week 4: 2-for-45

Week 5: 8-for-213 + 1 TD

That's a solid 80-yards per game average when he was healthy and the #1 WR on his team. Additionally, he had some upside because him and Antonio Gates were their primary redzone targets.

He was a little bit like the Alshon Jeffery to VJax's Brandon Marshall. The problem was, they relied a lot more on Antonio Gates than the Bears do on Martellus Bennett. So Floyd was usually the 3rd target in the passing game, not the 2nd like Alshon.

Last stop: Malcom Floyd's average yards-per-catch each season since 2008:

2008: 17.2

2009: 17.2

2010: 19.4

2011: 19.9

2012: 14.5

Josh Gordon's YPC:

2012: 16.1

2013: 18.9

It's how Norv Turner offenses work. The chuck the ball downfield a LOT.

Now THAT is some research. Ditto sir. Ditto.

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Wouldnt shock me if he was the top receiver.

Wouldnt shock me if he took a bong rip the night before week 1 and was absolutely useless in 2014.

My biggest concern is the coaching staff and what kind of offense he'll be in. His QB is irrelevant to me, he's proved since day 1 he can produce with bums.

You take Calvin 1st because his floor is top 5 WR and you know exactly what you're getting ... After him Gordon has to be considered. Hopefully he drops a bit with his "risk" and people reaching for top QBs and RB2s.

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No one here has elaborated on his off-field issues yet? One slip-up. ONE. And he is most likely done for the season. That's reason enough for me to leave him alone. There's plenty more choices to make at WR that are a whole lot safer than Gordon. Dude's a stud for sure. I'm not arguing that at all. I just can't put myself out there for someone who's failed to stay out of trouble so many times.

I have two reasons of why I would still draft him.

1: I hate drafting safe because you end up with a very boring team, yes this strategy often means I end up with Darren McFadden but that's really the only downside.

2. In the press release about his suspension they said his next suspension COULD result in a year long suspension not that it will result in a year long suspension. Yes an 8/12 game ban would suck majorly but even if that happened you would still be able to get something out of him that year.

So yes the suspension could be a factor in where some people draft him but I would still take him around the end of the first beginning of the second.

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Strengths: All pro WR skill set.

Weaknesses: Marijuana, Opiates, Being on the Cleveland Browns.

Norv Turner's offenses have recently relied on stretching the field with a deep passing attack that previously made Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Malcom Floyd is not a fantasy star. Maybe we have different definitions here, but a fantasy star to me is someone who finishes among the leaders at their position. You cherry picked some stats for Malcom Floyd, but lets look at his two best years and where he finished among fantasy receivers:

2012- 36th (played 14 games) 814 yards and 5 touchdowns

2011- 30th (played 12 games) 856 yards and 5 touchdowns

His 2012 is comparable to Gordon's 2013 since they both played 14 games under Norv. They're not comparable because Floyd had Rivers throwing to him, while Gordon was stuck with the three headed QB monster of suck. Despite Floyd having a much better QB, Gordon put up roughly double the amount of yards and TDs.

Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and DX fantasy stars.

Slotting a receiver of Gordon's physical talent into that offense was a good bet for similar results.

I'll give you Vjax and DX, but was Floyd a fantasy star at some point? Also, if Gordon was only a product of his system, do you think the same of VJAX and DX? VJax is obviously talented regardless of what system he is in. I think Gordon may be the same type of player.

http://www.nfl.com/p...2505785/profile

2013:

http://www.nfl.com/p...505785/gamelogs

Had a 5-catch, 102-yard game.

2012:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2012

Scored 5 TDs, had a 6-catch 109-yard game, and a 5-catch 102-yard game. I think this was the Ryan Mathews broken collarbone year. DX came on at the end of this season as well.

2011:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2011

Scored 5 TDs, had a 3-catch 100-yard game, a 5-catch 107-yard game, a 4-catch 108-yard game, a 5-catch 96-yard game, a 6-catch 95-yard game, and a 7-catch 127-yard game.

2010:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2010

Scored 6 TDs, had a 3-catch 95-yard game, a 6-catch 97-yard game, and 8-catch 213-yard game.

2009:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2009

Scored 1 TD, had a 9-catch 140-yard game.

==================================

So Floyd has had eight 100 yard games in the past five years. Gordon had seven in 2013. Floyd really isn't a fantasy star. Neither is DX really. DX had a great run near fantasy playoff time which made us all fall in love with him. If it's because of injury or lack of talent, neither DX nor Floyd produced on a "star" level for a whole season, ever. Potential doesn't make someone a fantasy star, production does.

Gordon and VJax could be considered fantasy stars, did Norv's system make them?

Last stop: Malcom Floyd's average yards-per-catch each season since 2008:

2008: 17.2

2009: 17.2

2010: 19.4 (on 37 catches)

2011: 19.9 (on 43 catches)

2012: 14.5

Josh Gordon's YPC:

2012: 16.1

2013: 18.9 (on 87 catches)

It's how Norv Turner offenses work. The chuck the ball downfield a LOT.

I don't doubt it, but I think Gordon is a high floor guy much more comprable to VJax than Floyd. I think the scouts agree with that opinion too, since Gordon and VJAX were basically second round picks while DX and Floyd were UDFAs.

I think the change in coaching staff, QB, etc could hurt Gordon as I indicated in the original post but at the same time I think he is physcially talented enough to produce even in bad cirucmstances.

Also, simply watching Gordon play makes me think the guy is more than just a deep threat that can out jump defenders.

And you do remember that DX performing big basically came out of nowhere, after having been with the Rams for multiple seasons and being a disappointment, right?

That could be attributed to a QB upgrade when going to the Chargers as much as a scheme upgrade.

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