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joshua18

Julian Edelman 2014 Season Outlook

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I wonder if JimmyGs is going to show up quoting awful sabremetrics and encouraging everyone to drop him for Austin Collie again.

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Top 15 upside definitely, but the patriots basically eliminate a player's floor, (look at Ridley.)

Ridley eliminated his own floor.

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Top 15 upside definitely, but the patriots basically eliminate a player's floor, (look at Ridley.)

Ridley eliminated his own floor.

That's a good point. Ridley wasn't a good exam[ple. but if you look at the Patriots hype train, it went from

Sudfeld-Amendola-Edelman. Then Edelman did nothing for 6 straight weeks at which point the hype want back and forth between one of their often injured X receivers (Dobson or Thompkins) then back to Edelman.

Point being, no one knows with wrs in NE not named Welker

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^^^ yeah I admit I got caught this year trying to land "the next big thing" with pats. Sud, Dola, Edelmen, Kenbrell........fell for them all.

Veeren doesn't really count do to injury. I didn't bit on dobson.

Pats always hard to gauge.

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I think Dobson breaks out next season, but Edelman should still be a top 20-25 option.

I have to disagree on Dobson. I watched a lot of Pats games this year and he is egregiously bad IMO. His hands are historically terrible.

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I highly doubt the Pats bring Edelman back, in which case his fantasy value goes kaput.

The Pats rarely reward guys for career years unless they are true game-changers. Plus, his "career" year wasn't even all that productive--the 105 catches and 1,056 yards look nice and shiny, but it took him 151 targets to get there, which is very weak.

Could see him going to a team that aims to emulate the Pats system. Good luck with that lol.

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I highly doubt the Pats bring Edelman back, in which case his fantasy value goes kaput.

The Pats rarely reward guys for career years unless they are true game-changers. Plus, his "career" year wasn't even all that productive--the 105 catches and 1,056 yards look nice and shiny, but it took him 151 targets to get there, which is very weak.

Could see him going to a team that aims to emulate the Pats system. Good luck with that lol.

Both he and the Pats know that his value on the open market isn't that great. No reason they wouldn't bring him back, especially given how unreliable Amendola is. No reason to compromise with WRs given how short Brady's elite window is.

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Andre still hating on Edelman. Bust out some more of those awesome sabremetrics man, they were right on the money in 2013! JimmyGs at least had the decency to admit he was wrong. You're sticking to those guns though eh?

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Excellent player. Great route runner, can go over the middle, can play outside. Yards after the catch. Plays tough. Has a great understanding with Brady and turned himself into the Pats' go-to guy. His performances against Denver (in the comeback win) and in Miami are ones that will stay with me for a while; he made one great play after another with the game on the line, crucial 3rd downs, big catches to continue drives, and some memorable TDs.

100+ catches this year is no fluke, and you don't replace that kind of production. Someone has to catch 100+ passes in this offense and he is the best receiver they have at this point in time.

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Andre still hating on Edelman. Bust out some more of those awesome sabremetrics man, they were right on the money in 2013! JimmyGs at least had the decency to admit he was wrong. You're sticking to those guns though eh?

Amazing how you still remember my position on Edelman from six months ago. Truly. I barely remember it.

Anyway, define 'wrong'.

He got targeted 151 times and converted it into 1,056 yards and 6 TDs. Nice fantasy year.

However, look at Brady's year. Mediocre by his standards. And a lot of that lackluster production stems from throwing to a mediocre talent like Edelman.

In September I predicted Edelman would be phased out of the Patriot offense over the course of the year. I was wrong.

I am still allowed to have a bearish position on the player though.

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100% a gut feeling...

.....but I think Edleman walks, and they try and replace him with Amendola.

I just think the Pats lowball Edleman and some team desperate for a name signs him to a 3/30 type deal with a bit more gaurenteed money then the pats will offer.

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I think Edelman will be back. New England learned its lesson last year by letting Welker walk.

Edelman's greatest value, both on the field with production and in his pocket for earning the highest paycheck, is with New England. Yesterday was another confirmation that Brady is having troubling throwing the deep ball. He needs to keep throwing the short passes, and Edelman is perfect for this.

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I think Dobson breaks out next season, but Edelman should still be a top 20-25 option.

I have to disagree on Dobson. I watched a lot of Pats games this year and he is egregiously bad IMO. His hands are historically terrible.

I'll take your word on it. I haven't seen too many of the Patriots games this season. However, I'm guessing most of his in effectiveness was due to learning an entirely new offense. Maybe once he gets the offense down he'll be able to focus more on catching the ball.

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I wonder if JimmyGs is going to show up quoting awful sabremetrics and encouraging everyone to drop him for Austin Collie again.

LOL, was going to post the same thing. Probably the worst advice on the forums in the 2013 season. A few people actually listened to him as well.

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I actually have a good feeling about Edelman. I thought all year that Amendola would morph into brady's new "Welker" - that mid-field guy good for the 5-10 yard comfort passes. With his constant injuries, he never made any chemistry. But it seems like Brady has become really comfortable using Edelman. They've connected to the point where Brady is always using him when he panicks. I can see them keeping up this trend of high mid-field targets into next season.

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Andre still hating on Edelman. Bust out some more of those awesome sabremetrics man, they were right on the money in 2013! JimmyGs at least had the decency to admit he was wrong. You're sticking to those guns though eh?

Amazing how you still remember my position on Edelman from six months ago. Truly. I barely remember it.

Anyway, define 'wrong'.

He got targeted 151 times and converted it into 1,056 yards and 6 TDs. Nice fantasy year.

However, look at Brady's year. Mediocre by his standards. And a lot of that lackluster production stems from throwing to a mediocre talent like Edelman.

In September I predicted Edelman would be phased out of the Patriot offense over the course of the year. I was wrong.

I am still allowed to have a bearish position on the player though.

I remember you're a big sabremetrics guy and you think it applies to football despite the small sample size and numerous outside factors. Such glaring ignorance was memorable, I can see you're still pretty proud of that, so good for you.

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Will be interesting to see where Edelman goes. He's pretty legit at this point...with Gronk a significant amount of this TD upside goes out the window, but he was still at the very least an ideal flex with Gronk in the lineup. And with Gronk out he's a legit high-end WR2. If he can get to the 5th round I'm down.

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Andre still hating on Edelman. Bust out some more of those awesome sabremetrics man, they were right on the money in 2013! JimmyGs at least had the decency to admit he was wrong. You're sticking to those guns though eh?

Amazing how you still remember my position on Edelman from six months ago. Truly. I barely remember it.

Anyway, define 'wrong'.

He got targeted 151 times and converted it into 1,056 yards and 6 TDs. Nice fantasy year.

However, look at Brady's year. Mediocre by his standards. And a lot of that lackluster production stems from throwing to a mediocre talent like Edelman.

In September I predicted Edelman would be phased out of the Patriot offense over the course of the year. I was wrong.

I am still allowed to have a bearish position on the player though.

I remember you're a big sabremetrics guy and you think it applies to football despite the small sample size and numerous outside factors. Such glaring ignorance was memorable, I can see you're still pretty proud of that, so good for you.

Come on SurlyRobot, everyone is wrong about fantasy football some..even several times...you can't predict the future. Anyone could take a look back at your posts from before last season and find some instances where you were wrong just as well. I thought Ryan Mathews would remain a crap option in 2013...Bradford would have a breakout year..among other things, but I was wrong...dead wrong. But I also was right about a lot of things too. The key is being right more times than you're wrong, mis-predicting some things though is inevitable. So pointing out that one person was wrong about ONE thing accomplishes little.

And it was entirely possible that Edelman WOULD be phased out in 2013, if Amendola would have been everything people thought he could/should be perhaps he would have been phased out. The fact that Edelman wasn't phased out doesn't mean it wasn't impossible that he COULD have been Again, Andre was wrong sure, in this lone instance, just like everyone is at times. So you're simply saying Andre is human, I'm glad you're a human, Andre. But it's pretty lame to not only point it out six months later, but rub it in.

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Another interesting guy to debate and rank for 2014. Edelman's 2013 was almost a tale of 2 seasons. At first, it seems clear that he was forced into the starting/slot role due to the Amendola injury and rookie WR not developing quickly. However, once the team finally figured out that this guy could play and actually be the team's new "Welker", Edelman absolutely flourished over the Patriot's final 8 games (including 2 playoffs). His stat line over those 8 games: 69 rec 729 yd 5 TD. Extrapolating #'s is usually a fool's errand but those stats over a 16 game season are ridiculous (especially in PPR): 138 rec 1,458 yd 10 TD. The other interesting thing about this 8 game sample size, Amendola was active and playing in every one of these games as well. It took awhile but maybe the Pats finally figured out what Edelman had to offer and started using him often and effectively.

It's possible that Edelman was just a one year wonder and his 2013 stats will get eaten into by Amendola, LaFell, Dobson, Gronk, etc. But what if this guy truly is the team's new Welker, entering his prime, and ready to string together 2 or more great seasons with Brady. Welker still produced big seasons in NE with greater talents (Moss, Gronk, Hernandez, BLloyd) than Edelman has to compete with. His current ADP is around WR 25 in rd 6. I am all over him at that price, especially in PPR.

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We scratch our heads over the Pats RBs AND the Pats receivers. How much do the second year WRs develop? How much of Amendola's struggle was injury? What would a healthy Vereen and Gronk mean for the WR numbers? Is Edelman over his injury risk label? Weaving through the uncertainty is a big part of what makes this game fun.

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