Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

cbe_88

T.Y. Hilton 2014 Season Outlook

329 posts in this topic

I was all over this guy last year, and quite frankly, was disappointed.

Reggie Wayne going down saved his campaign, upgrading him to a streaky WR with weekly blow-up potential. I still can't ignore him having awesome chemistry with a top 7 (in not 5) QB in the league. Reggie is a huge hinge on TY's value, to what extent will he be able to bounce back? And I also can't ignore the way he ended the season...especially that KC game obviously.

And do you think his role in 2014 will have streakiness baked right in again? It comes with the territory with being almost an exclusive deep threat. TY did step up a little bit with more quick routes, and intermediate routes, but a combo of Wayne and Brazil could swipe up the quick inside slant and intermediate targets.

All-in-all I'll probably view him as a solid flex next year, his blow-up potential could make him a little more expensive than last year, when every owner is thinking of the KC game as the last thought they saw of him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see him being somewhat over drafted based on how he ended the season. Like you said,a lot depends on what happens with Wayne.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

with wayne TY failed to top 5 points in 5 of 7 games.

in the 2nd half of the season, without wayne, TY failed to score double digits in 6 of 9 games.

i love the guy in real life but he was basically useless (5 points or less) in 10/16 games this year. what's concerning is that 5 of those were without wayne.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Colts as a whole seem streaky and Hilton seem streakier then many others on the team.

Doesn't mean he couldn't explode and score 20, 17, 21 for the 3 playoff championship weeks.......but if he didn't show up it wouldn't shock me either.

The fact it took them so long to bail on DHB has me questioning minds in Indy. Playoffs or not I still am not a Pep Hamilton fan.

good news(FF wise for hilton) is wayne will be a 35 year old coming off ACL surgery. Even Marvin Harrison went down hill at age 35.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact it took them so long to bail on DHB has me questioning minds in Indy. Playoffs or not I still am not a Pep Hamilton fan.

This and then this again!

I do not like Pep Hamilton in the slightest, who seems to emphasize philosophy over productivity - i.e., sticking with the power run despite it never working, DHB debacle... This team would be a lot more productive if they adapted to their personnel and actually based playcalling reflecting the actual game situtation. and even if they decide to stick with the power run, they got to enact more play action which never really seems to happen on the long passes.

With that thought, on to TY. I love the guy (heck, I named my team this year after him - see below). He was my keeper at a $1 this year. However, even though I would be able to keep him for the low price of $5 next year, I will be moving on.

Why? Well first the fact that I have Keenen for a $1 this upcoming year is a reason. But beyond that, it's because I believe we saw his ceiling (re: IND v. HOU) and we can see how he can be a demonstrateive player, and yet the Colts still don't seem to understand how to use him.

I'm a firm believer that consistency of your players week to week wins you a fantasy championship. If he had his final year stats evenly spread over 16 games, I would take him in a heart beat for his going draft price (I expect $12-$18 IN 2014, and considering the KC game, could be as high as $20). But scoring TDs in only 2 regular season games this year, not the type I need on my team. unless he goes for the $12 I mention earlier, it be tough to think this guy is worth the weekly sit v. start dilemma...

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I admit to being sort of boring but 100% agree with consistency winning more games then trading wins and loses with the booms/busts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm down on Hilton and all other Colts players with that putrid coaching staff in Indy. Hamilton is incompetent and so is Pagano. Retaining Hamilton on his staff is evidence enough of Pagano's unworthiness as a coach imo.

There are only so many yards and scores to go around there. With Wayne back and Hamilton's commitment to run Richardson/Brown on 1st 2nd and 3rd downs for 2 yards a crack I don't like Luck, Hilton or anyone else. It all could have been different if Hamilton had taken the Vandy job but I see no reason why they'll change - they made the playoffs after all. Never mind it had more to do with them playing in the worst division this side of the NFC East. If they employ the same "strategy" next year (and I see no reason why they won't) they'll go 6-10 and then maybe something gets done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm down on Hilton and all other Colts players with that putrid coaching staff in Indy. Hamilton is incompetent and so is Pagano. Retaining Hamilton on his staff is evidence enough of Pagano's unworthiness as a coach imo.

There are only so many yards and scores to go around there. With Wayne back and Hamilton's commitment to run Richardson/Brown on 1st 2nd and 3rd downs for 2 yards a crack I don't like Luck, Hilton or anyone else. It all could have been different if Hamilton had taken the Vandy job but I see no reason why they'll change - they made the playoffs after all. Never mind it had more to do with them playing in the worst division this side of the NFC East. If they employ the same "strategy" next year (and I see no reason why they won't) they'll go 6-10 and then maybe something gets done.

Pep FINALLY showed SOME type of signs of actually adjusting his philosophy/scheme according to the most talented players you have. He finally figured out that this offense needs to run through Luck, but still had some hard headedness. I actually like Brazill more headed into next year.

I agree that it might be smartest to avoid IND WR's altogether, but I don't think you should be down on Luck himself. He has premiere pocket passer stats, that get padded by weekly rushing stats. His rush TD proneness is what catapulted him to top5 status last year, and I'm praying he gets to the 4th-5th round next year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pep FINALLY showed SOME type of signs of actually adjusting his philosophy/scheme according to the most talented players you have. He finally figured out that this offense needs to run through Luck, but still had some hard headedness. I actually like Brazill more headed into next year.

I agree that it might be smartest to avoid IND WR's altogether, but I don't think you should be down on Luck himself. He has premiere pocket passer stats, that get padded by weekly rushing stats. His rush TD proneness is what catapulted him to top5 status last year, and I'm praying he gets to the 4th-5th round next year.

Well it took halftime deficits (31-10, 21-12) before he adjusted - a pattern they showed all year. To win as many games as they did trailing as often as they did at halftime was a fluke - although a tribute to Luck.

And you're right Luck is probably worth shot as a QB1 I just don't like the idea of his playing in that offense and having to watch it every week.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm down on Hilton and all other Colts players with that putrid coaching staff in Indy. Hamilton is incompetent and so is Pagano. Retaining Hamilton on his staff is evidence enough of Pagano's unworthiness as a coach imo.

There are only so many yards and scores to go around there. With Wayne back and Hamilton's commitment to run Richardson/Brown on 1st 2nd and 3rd downs for 2 yards a crack I don't like Luck, Hilton or anyone else. It all could have been different if Hamilton had taken the Vandy job but I see no reason why they'll change - they made the playoffs after all. Never mind it had more to do with them playing in the worst division this side of the NFC East. If they employ the same "strategy" next year (and I see no reason why they won't) they'll go 6-10 and then maybe something gets done.

The NFC East was far better than the AFC South....and that's saying something.

If they feature any RB than T-Rich next year, they may have a legit ground game. Depends on that, and whether they're willing to spend to upgrade their interior O-line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if everyone is down on TY Hilton, I will probably own him in most leagues. Absolutely agree, he has been highly inconsistent. But if you look at his numbers over his very brief two year career, they are highly impressive and are tracking in a very nice direction. If the Colts don't go out and sign a big time WR and all they have is Wayne coming back, I am all over TY Hilton. I know many WRs are more consistent but there aren't many WRs this young that are consistent at this point in their career. Luck's continued development, Indy realizing TY has to have the ball in his hands more in combination with Hilton's expected progression.....I think he adds to his numbers and adds some consistency.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if everyone is down on TY Hilton, I will probably own him in most leagues. Absolutely agree, he has been highly inconsistent. But if you look at his numbers over his very brief two year career, they are highly impressive and are tracking in a very nice direction. If the Colts don't go out and sign a big time WR and all they have is Wayne coming back, I am all over TY Hilton. I know many WRs are more consistent but there aren't many WRs this young that are consistent at this point in their career. Luck's continued development, Indy realizing TY has to have the ball in his hands more in combination with Hilton's expected progression.....I think he adds to his numbers and adds some consistency.

Let me rephrase Rob_P, I am down on TY for the price I expect him to go for in next year's draft. I expect the not-so-savvy FF players to draft him based upon his big playoff game like many did with kaepernick this year. Relative to that expectation, I think most will overpay. But the opposite could happen as well, like you suggest: "If everyone is down on Hilton, I will probably own him in most leagues" - i.e., if he goes for lower than the expected price I mention above, absolutely he will be on my team.

I do auction, so my $$ figures from the above post applies here... in snake draft format, the first round I would consider him would probably be 6th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

... and more likely, i would really only draft him in the 6th if it were 100% clear he was by far the best player available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something? Have there been that many 2nd year WRs who have put up over a 1000 yards and are consistent from game to game? I know there are a few over the years but not many. I think it's way to early to label this guy as inconsistent when he has only played 2 years in the league. His first 2 years compare very nicely to most young WRs. The consistency will likely come as Luck and TY continue to develop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something? Have there been that many 2nd year WRs who have put up over a 1000 yards and are consistent from game to game? I know there are a few over the years but not many. I think it's way to early to label this guy as inconsistent when he has only played 2 years in the league. His first 2 years compare very nicely to most young WRs. The consistency will likely come as Luck and TY continue to develop.

For sure, the only real concern I have with him staying inconsistent is if he is an exclusive deep threat...in that role inconsistency is almost baked right in, and Pep didn't exactly let the pass attempts come as freely as they should have.

As a player? Love him. And his qb? Awesome. But because of what's stated above I can't view him more than a flex play with upside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see your points but I suspect his talents will dictate the Colts finding ways to get him the ball more consistently. It's not like they are loaded with playmakers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something? Have there been that many 2nd year WRs who have put up over a 1000 yards and are consistent from game to game? I know there are a few over the years but not many. I think it's way to early to label this guy as inconsistent when he has only played 2 years in the league. His first 2 years compare very nicely to most young WRs. The consistency will likely come as Luck and TY continue to develop.

He's 5'9 according to ESPN. I've said it before on here a couple times, but the majority of the best WRs share 1 thing in common and that's size. Welker is one of the rare exceptions in the league. Bigger receivers have the ability to win those jump balls and beat corners with their leaping ability and size. Hilton at his size doesn't have that luxury so he will be mostly a quick slant guy or a deep threat guy or however the coaches plan to use him in the upcoming years. That doesn't mean he won't be productive, but he might have a hard time producing touchdowns like some of the bigger receivers in the league like Calvin, Andre, Fitzgerald, Julio, Dez, Green, Demaryius, Jordy, Marshall, Jeffrey, Gordon, Decker, and so on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree his size is a possible obstacle. But I feel talent usually finds a way to rise and he seems to be clearly their best WR. I have to think they use him in the slot and in a variety of ways like a Randall Cobb type. I also feel Luck will likely be a top 2 or 3 QB very soon and I assume he continues to build the chemistry with Hilton .....the potential is very high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something? Have there been that many 2nd year WRs who have put up over a 1000 yards and are consistent from game to game? I know there are a few over the years but not many. I think it's way to early to label this guy as inconsistent when he has only played 2 years in the league. His first 2 years compare very nicely to most young WRs. The consistency will likely come as Luck and TY continue to develop.

He's 5'9 according to ESPN. I've said it before on here a couple times, but the majority of the best WRs share 1 thing in common and that's size. Welker is one of the rare exceptions in the league. Bigger receivers have the ability to win those jump balls and beat corners with their leaping ability and size. Hilton at his size doesn't have that luxury so he will be mostly a quick slant guy or a deep threat guy or however the coaches plan to use him in the upcoming years. That doesn't mean he won't be productive, but he might have a hard time producing touchdowns like some of the bigger receivers in the league like Calvin, Andre, Fitzgerald, Julio, Dez, Green, Demaryius, Jordy, Marshall, Jeffrey, Gordon, Decker, and so on.

I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I think your logic is sound. As a Streaker, his value will always be a little inconsistent. My only two points to refute this are:

- He has shown the ability to snag smaller to more intermediate routes. I remembering specfically his big game against Houston where two of his three TDs came from inside the RZ, one being a great crossing/drag route where he got behind a receiver on the other side of the field who blocked for him and enabled a 8-12 yard TD.

- A certain receiver by the name of Steve Smith was pretty darn good and fairly consistent for a good while (not so much now though, but certainly in the past), and this was even during the Daylight-come-and-me-wanna-Delhomme years. i am not saying this is absolutely the trajectory for TY, but its not as if being a small burner down the field has never paid off in fantasy terms.

Main point here is: The talent is there, and if Bruce Arians were still the OC for this team, I would be chomping at the bit to get him next year. Vick Ballard Said it best, Pep's offensive philosophy is "to run the ball on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down." It is preposterous and will probably get Pep fired after next year, but it worked fine enough to put them at the top of the worst division in the NFL, so go figure...

So Rob_P, I think the idea you had on how "his talents will dictate the Colts finding ways to get him the ball more consistently" will be a goal of their's, but I do not really trust Pep to be creative enough to this enough "consistently" to warrant the expected cost of where TY will be drafted. Again, if he falls because others have this same suspicion, I am totally on board. But I think given how WRs were this year, this will not be the case in august...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The biggest issue is that for fantasy purposes Indiana is a mess.

Hilton, Rogers, Wayne, Brazil and Heyward-Bey?

Hilton we know is talented but inconsistent with his targets being so up and down. God knows how Wayne will go next year after injury, but Luck has always had good chemistry with him and that could eat into receptions for others. Brazil and Rogers are both potential break out candidates, and could be better value.

Throw into the mix that they are run heavy and look set to continue to be a run heavy side, and its really hard to justify drafting anyone from the Colts at the moment.

Things will probably settle this season, but trying to predict who or what is anyones guess IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could be wrong but I don't think it's that much of a mystery on roles. Hilton will be their #1 WR, Wayne if healthy will be #2. And while it baffles me why they want to be a running team when they probably have the best young QB in the game, I think they will be forced to throw one way or another. Time will tell and there are logical reasons to wonder if TY will be a stud....but with Luck at QB I am very intrigued by Hilton's upside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Totally agree his size is a possible obstacle. But I feel talent usually finds a way to rise and he seems to be clearly their best WR. I have to think they use him in the slot and in a variety of ways like a Randall Cobb type. I also feel Luck will likely be a top 2 or 3 QB very soon and I assume he continues to build the chemistry with Hilton .....the potential is very high.

Oh the potential is monstrous, and I agree Luck will be a top3 QB sooner rather than later. Talent should win out, but the questions about Pep in this thread are extremely valid.

When all is said and done I'll probably be sold on a flex price next year, because I think he will be the best WR on his team depending on how well Reggie bounces back. And yeah how have we not talked more about Reggie? A big factor when trying to decipher Hilton's value. How well do u think the 33(4?) yr old Reggie bounces back?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reggie is 35. I think he will be a possession type WR but I don't see him being a major threat to Hilton's production.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reggie is 35. I think he will be a possession type WR but I don't see him being a major threat to Hilton's production.

You apparently think the Colts are going pass-first next year? Luck averaged ~35 throws a game this yr w/a 60% completion rate so right around 21-22 completions/game. If Wayne's right physically he'll get 10 targets/game, so the rest split what's left. Hilton will get the occasional deep throw and when it connects he'll be worth starting that week and when it doesn't you'll wonder why you own him.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites