yankeefan2116

Raimel Tapia - OF COL

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Will he be at Modesto this season? I'd love to go watch him and Dahl "Nut" up.

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Still ranked very mildly on prospect lists. I like him but I'm concerned I'm overrating him for being a Colorado prospect. If he gets traded (which so many young players go through), will he have half the luster away from Coors?

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.340 with 4HR and 9stls. Environment is slanted extremely towards hitters though. Very divisive prospect. Some are all in and some say he can't hit a curve. Double A will be the test. These numbers are expected for someone with his bat to ball skills in the environment he's in. Lifetime .320 hitter. But the test with be AA. Wake me up when that happens.

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No posts for a month and a half and you revive the thread just to tell us that you're not interested. Thanks!

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I see nothing wrong with his post. Chill out. Tapia gets underrated because of the parks he plays in but he square baseballs up consistently. When he makes it up to Denver that'll be plenty valuable.

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I've got this guy on my farm and most scouts seem to love him, but I'm just not sold on the stats. He's at .307/.329/.460 in the Cal League which is solid but not great considering that's one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. The 11 steals are nice, but he's also been caught 8 times. The real red flag for me is the 64 K's versus 10 walks.

Is it all projection with this guy then? Is it the fact that he'd be hitting in Coors if he ever makes it? He's still only 21 but it doesn't seem like he'll move very quickly until he sharpens his batting eye.

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Yeah I'm iffy on him. I'm trying to figure out his ceiling and his most likely outcome which I feel are drastically different.

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I've got this guy on my farm and most scouts seem to love him, but I'm just not sold on the stats. He's at .307/.329/.460 in the Cal League which is solid but not great considering that's one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. The 11 steals are nice, but he's also been caught 8 times. The real red flag for me is the 64 K's versus 10 walks.

Is it all projection with this guy then? Is it the fact that he'd be hitting in Coors if he ever makes it? He's still only 21 but it doesn't seem like he'll move very quickly until he sharpens his batting eye.

I wouldn't focus on the line at this stage for Tapia. He makes consistent contact and doesn't get cheated at the plate. Some players just have a knack for hitting the ball and Tapia is that guy. He is still learning how to read and make the right call about running. The biggest question is how much power if any will he grow into. I imagine the Rockies would be satisfied if he hit with high average and had 10-15 HRs a season and 10-15. Realistic profile is probably a Jon Jay type.

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Yeesh, that doesn't sound like a top prospect to me. Not sure what you mean by consistent contact either, 64 K's in 287 at-bats isn't a great percentage.

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I've got this guy on my farm and most scouts seem to love him, but I'm just not sold on the stats. He's at .307/.329/.460 in the Cal League which is solid but not great considering that's one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. The 11 steals are nice, but he's also been caught 8 times. The real red flag for me is the 64 K's versus 10 walks.

Is it all projection with this guy then? Is it the fact that he'd be hitting in Coors if he ever makes it? He's still only 21 but it doesn't seem like he'll move very quickly until he sharpens his batting eye.

I wouldn't focus on the line at this stage for Tapia. He makes consistent contact and doesn't get cheated at the plate. Some players just have a knack for hitting the ball and Tapia is that guy. He is still learning how to read and make the right call about running. The biggest question is how much power if any will he grow into. I imagine the Rockies would be satisfied if he hit with high average and had 10-15 HRs a season and 10-15. Realistic profile is probably a Jon Jay type.

That's a weird comparison. Jon Jay doesn't have neither the power nor speed Tapia possess and/or will develop.

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I've got this guy on my farm and most scouts seem to love him, but I'm just not sold on the stats. He's at .307/.329/.460 in the Cal League which is solid but not great considering that's one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. The 11 steals are nice, but he's also been caught 8 times. The real red flag for me is the 64 K's versus 10 walks.

Is it all projection with this guy then? Is it the fact that he'd be hitting in Coors if he ever makes it? He's still only 21 but it doesn't seem like he'll move very quickly until he sharpens his batting eye.

He's a case where you're going to have to follow/trust the scouts on if you're a believer. They keep putting 7 hit grades on the guy even though it's not showing in the stats.

I agree that seeing 64ks for a guy that is supposed to have insane contact ability makes me raise an eyebrow. It'd be worth asking the prospect "experts" why there's a disconnect and what's the reason for the k's. It can't be because he's working deep counts and taking called strike threes because he only has 10 walks.

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I've got this guy on my farm and most scouts seem to love him, but I'm just not sold on the stats. He's at .307/.329/.460 in the Cal League which is solid but not great considering that's one of the best hitters' leagues in the minors. The 11 steals are nice, but he's also been caught 8 times. The real red flag for me is the 64 K's versus 10 walks.

Is it all projection with this guy then? Is it the fact that he'd be hitting in Coors if he ever makes it? He's still only 21 but it doesn't seem like he'll move very quickly until he sharpens his batting eye.

I wouldn't focus on the line at this stage for Tapia. He makes consistent contact and doesn't get cheated at the plate. Some players just have a knack for hitting the ball and Tapia is that guy. He is still learning how to read and make the right call about running. The biggest question is how much power if any will he grow into. I imagine the Rockies would be satisfied if he hit with high average and had 10-15 HRs a season and 10-15. Realistic profile is probably a Jon Jay type.

That's a weird comparison. Jon Jay doesn't have neither the power nor speed Tapia possess and/or will develop.

I should clarify, the talent and tools are on different levels. When I mean a Jon Jay type, to me that is the floor and realistic outcome performance wise for Tapia. That's because we don't know if the power will ever come and right now, we are looking high single digits or low teens HR power. Tapia has speed but hasn't shown that he know how to read and steal (10 SB and 8 caught). We do know that he can flat out hit the ball.

What we all want is the obvious: .300+ hitter. 15-20 HR's, and 30 steals. But that is if everything clicks, He has to make the proper adjustments in the upper minors, learns how to steal more effectively, and fills out his LISTED 160 lb frame to get to that ceiling. That's a lot of IF's.

I am not dissing him, I love the guy but I have played fantasy long enough to know that the failure rates for these guys are pretty high.

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The following is from the comments section of the BP article below. The article is behind a pay wall. The comments are open and can be viewed by anyone.

Q: Tapia, will he hit enough for LF if he can't stick defensively in CF? I guess we're hoping the light comes on for him like it seems to have for Nick Williams this year. Tapia is still young and sushi raw.

A: He certainly CAN, the big question is whether he will. The raw bat-to-ball is pretty special, but his approach remains aggressive both out of zone and within it. He'll get himself out on pitchers' pitches too often, and hasn't shown much growth or development in that area since the beginning of the season. He's building a highly batting average-dependent on-base profile, and it means that much more volatility in predicting how his hit tool will eventually play. There's no denying the hitting ability, more a question of its ultimate utility for me.

Q: A sobering view in that scouting report of Tapia. Looks like the hype is a bit overdone and his free-swinging ways will indeed finally get the better of his elite hit tool.

A: Well, I mean I still put a 6 on the hit even with my concerns and projected him to become a Major Leaguer, so it's not like I think he sucks. I'm just not sure hitting an on-the-empty-side .280 would be enough to turn him into a quality regular given the concerns I have with the rest of the profile. There's a ton of projection left, even by the standards of a kid in High-A, and that's where the high variability comes in.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26806#commentMessage

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Just saw this on milb.com.

"Prospect Roundup: Games of July 18

Santana homers again, ties franchise record; Guerra, Tapia stay hot

By Josh Jackson / MiLB.com

07/18/2015 1:47 PM ET

Rockies OF Raimel Tapia, Class A Advanced Modesto: 3-for-6, 2B, 2 R, SB -- Now that the Astros' A.J. Reed has been promoted to the Texas League, Tapia leads the California League with a .331 batting average and 179 total bases through 85 games. His 19 stolen bags rank third in the circuit. Tapia has been consistently excellent all year, but things have gotten ridiculous of late. Friday's was his second straight three-hit game, and he has 14 hits over his last five contests, batting .608 (14-for-23) during that span. He hasn't gone without a hit since the third of the month, and to find his last 0-for prior to that, you have to go back to June 19."

Edit: Of course, the day they posted this, he goes 0-fer...

Edited by Halo Fan

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The last I saw, his ETA was 2017. Any changes?

Edited by phatrat
BC content removed

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That's probably still about right. He's still playing for Modesto.

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From the Baseball America Colorado Rockies Top 10 Prospects Chat:

RT (The desert): There are so many differing opinions on Raimel Tapia. How do you think he plays out?Thanks!

Michael Lananna: Tapia is a divisive player, no question. And I’m not sure anyone has the answers right now. He still has quite a bit of developing to do physically, which could impact his power and where he ends up playing in the outfield. That said, the dude can hit. He hasn’t stopped hitting since the Rockies signed him, and he has a tremendous feel for the barrel and hand-eye coordination. His mechanics are unorthodox, especially the squatting he does with two strikes, but it’s worked for him. He’s far from a finished product. He needs to tighten up his zone, and maybe the Rockies do tweak his swing at some point. But he brings a lot of excitement and athleticism, and he’s been remarkably consistent over his pro career. If he keeps hitting, he’s going to be hard to ignore.

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Mucho swagger, papi.

Love this kid. Hoping he can hit his way into a cup of coffee this year.

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After a slow start BA wise, he's starting to take off. Last ten games in 41 AB's he's hitting .415 with only 1 K (only 1 BB too though). Power slightly up - 4 HR's so far. Caught stealing on 6 of his 12 attempts. Lots of mixed bag in his 2016 start, but he's up to .295 in 166 Ab's in AA now. Proving more and more doubters wrong every year. 21K's to 13 BB's pretty solid ratio. Hopefully the hot streak rolls on for awhile. Would be nice to see him in Coors next June/July after Super 2 cutoff.

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335 ABs in AA, batting average up to .337, with 6 HRs and 14 steals

What's the earliest timetable for Tapia?

Edited by strahanfan92

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On July 13, 2016 at 1:58 AM, strahanfan92 said:

335 ABs in AA, batting average up to .337, with 6 HRs and 14 steals

What's the earliest timetable for Tapia?

Probably next May or June best case scenario. I could see them moving CarGo in the offseason since he's a free agent after next year and they may not be able to afford him at a likely higher price. I think 2nd half of 2017 for Tapia is more realistic since it may take until that trade deadline for CarGo to get moved.

 

My outfield needs youth in dynasty, so I picked tapia up in free agency. Great upside.

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