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buckeyestilidie

Justin Blackmon 2014 Season Outlook

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After much discussion in the Jimmy Graham outlook thread it's got me thinking about sleeper WR's. I think if Blackmon could stay on the field with Shorts as the #2 he could be a serious under the radar guy who produces big time. I think having a competent RB in Gerhart helps keep D's somewhat honest. Much more can be said once we see who they draft, but until then what do you guys think if he can turn in a full sixteen game campaign?

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29 catches for 415 yards in 4 games last season. I love this guy's talent, it's just a matter if you trust him to obey the law.

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Not possible for him to be a sleeper.

He's simply a guy who has insane upside, but rock bottom downside.

We don't even know when(if) his suspension we be lifted.

But he can't qualify as a sleeper to me, simply risk/reward.

Gabbert is gone, so that's 50% of the battle.

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Not possible for him to be a sleeper.

He's simply a guy who has insane upside, but rock bottom downside.

We don't even know when(if) his suspension we be lifted.

But he can't qualify as a sleeper to me, simply risk/reward.

Gabbert is gone, so that's 50% of the battle.

I agree with this. He isn't a sleeper because people have seen what he can do and know he can produce WR1 numbers when on the field. If anything, he could possibly be had for a good value. People could shy away from him due to his unknown status and inability to follow the rules. Won't be a sleeper, but could have some value.

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I'll have no issue drafting him. Even if he's slated to start week 1, I doubt people will be drafting him higher than a flex. If I could grab him as my first bench WR, I'd take it.

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I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.

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I didn't mean to label him a sleeper I was just thinking of guys who can outpreform their ADP and Blackmon rings top of my list. I think he could have a Gordon type of year. I don't think he'd be number one in fantasy for WR's, but I think like Munde said in the top ten for the price of a guy in the seventh.

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I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.

That was my quote. Really does sum him up which makes him very unique. I have heard predictions he will be back week 5, week 9 and 2015. So no idea how to value him in drafts. I own him in a dynasty league, I will hold on to him and hope he is back soon. If he ever puts it together, I do think the Josh Gordon comparisons could be accurate as far as breakout potential.

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I can't remember who said it, but I think it sums up Blackmon.

Top 10 upside, with kicked out of the NFL downside.

That was my quote. Really does sum him up which makes him very unique. I have heard predictions he will be back week 5, week 9 and 2015. So no idea how to value him in drafts. I own him in a dynasty league, I will hold on to him and hope he is back soon. If he ever puts it together, I do think the Josh Gordon comparisons could be accurate as far as breakout potential.

Yep. This does indeed sum him up. His value won't really be known until we all know what his suspension indeed is. If he does play next season, he's a guy I would target and keep on my bench. But I wouldn't look at him until after round 10 with his downside of "kicked out of the NFL". I got him last year in round 13 I believe.

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In 2013 I drafted Blackmon in 1 league at roughly pick 120 or so and in an auction league landed him late at $2. While neither turned into a screaming value, I did get some better than solid starts out of him before his final suspension. My hunch, assuming he's back, is that his price will be highly unpredictable in 2014 drafts because the Jags are an improving team, we saw glimpses of what Blackmon can become and Shorts' limitations were fully exposed in 2013, all of which may encourage the risk takers among your league mates to draft Blackmon before they should. But if I can get him for a price close to last season's he's worth the (extremely high) risk.

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Discussing his value seems rather fruitless at this time until we hear a verdict on his indefinite suspension, but my guess is that if he were slated to miss any less than 3 games, you would have to take him in the 4th/5th of 12-man league. There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him. If he gets pushed out to 4-6 games, he'll probably drop to the 8th/9th. If it remains indefinite by the time you draft, his ADP should be 10+, but every league is different and there are plenty of gamblers out there who might take a swing before then.

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There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?

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There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?

Phrasing is not that bad, I am sort of disturbed the 1st thing you thought of was The taste of Gordon's Ditka though

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There's too many owners still with the taste of Josh Gordon's success in their mouths for someone not to jump on him.

phrasing?

Hahahahahah little freudian slip there boys. Didn't even think twice, sorry for any disturbing thoughts that resulted.

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So when we do actually find out how long/if he is suspended?

When will he be reinstated

If he is still not reinstated will he even be drafted?

Blackmon for my last pick? Yes please

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Let me talk what I like to call "real spit" meaning the reality of the situation is that, This guy has the talent and abilty to be the best, better than Megatron, because I feel hes a bit more craftier, but not better, but because Megatron will forever be double and triple teamed, Blackmon has a chance to dethrone Gordon and Megatron, but to me he Just doesnt want it bad enough. When I look at him, he doesnt care about football. Ok you smoke in the offseason and probably before every game, but you know your going to be tested and suspended, Do you hide it better? or act like its not a problem your out 4 games every year... That to me is a problem, I can see him with 100 yards each game, but He doesnt care, and when people dont care I dont care about them, because they're an accident or issue away from destroying my team... He can be my WR5, someone I can drop and pickup at my leisure.

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What if they get Sammy Watkins and cut bait with all this nonsense every year, Let blackmon go to the patriots where Bill B can work on his next problem receiver. He loves this player-project mentality instead of drafting or trading for a good WR

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Slow your roll bro. MegAtron and Gordon tier is a little harder to reach then your stating

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He's a hot waiver add sometime during the season to whoever sees the news first at this point. But until he can get cleared to play and that clearance happens before you do your draft, then I think it might just be a wasted pick. The talent is there, the judgement and ability to be on the football field is not at this time.

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Slow your roll bro. MegAtron and Gordon tier is a little harder to reach then your stating

Before last season, If i said that about gordon you would of said the same thing, Ive see this guy with chad henne got for 200 in a game, thats enough for me the ability is there, the love for the game is not

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Yea, Blackmon has truly elite football skills and could be in the "best of the best" discussion if he wanted to be. But he's as bad at following rules as he is good at playing football, and until that changes he should remain a WW scrub.

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So is he not even applying for reinstatement???????

Druggie alcoholic or not he should be interested in money. Prime years ticking away,

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He can apply for reinstatement before the season begins but there's no word on if or when he plans to do so. And Goodell doesn't have to approve it. And even if he does approve, past experience has shown that Blackon is more likely to reoffend than not.

This kid is the poster child for wasted talent and blown opportunities.

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Meh. I am thinking the Jags are saying this because if they make other teams think they are targeting Watkins then it makes it more likely teams will come after their pick. I don't trust anything said this close to the draft.

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