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LoL CooL JaY

2014-2015 Rookie Fantasy Value

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I figure it's never too early to start thinking about it, especially for those of us already eliminated from our leagues :(

Here's my very early thoughts on next season's 1st round.

1. Kevin Durant - Best player in fantasy, period. Somehow improved his game this year. Scary/exciting to think what kinds of #s he might put up next year if he keeps getting better. He makes me wonder why my league still does a snake draft.

2. Anthony Davis - Entering his 3rd season, Davis will be looking to continue where he left off after an amazing sophomore leap that saw him already become one of the game's elite PFs. The huge numbers he put up down the stretch were helped by Holiday/Anderson missing significant time (and even Gordon to a minor extent), but Davis is still coming into his own. If he adds a 3 pt shot to his arsenal as has been reported, he may become the new top dog. Fragility is a minor concern although hopefully he'll continue to add muscle and strengthen his frame.

3, 4, 5, 6. Stephen Curry, Lebron James, Kevin Love, and Chris Paul in some order - Two of these guys could be elsewhere by the time next season rolls around. This may come down to a who do you want to build your team around type of thing.

7, 8. James Harden, Carmelo Anthony - I think these two guys are in a tier below the four players above. . Harden has had to step back a little bit with the addition of Howard this year. If Melo ends up elsewhere, who knows what might happen to his fantasy value.

9,10,11,12. Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, John Wall, Serge Ibaka - Again, I don't really know how to rank these guys. Dirk/Serge are pretty boring picks, but they are rock-steady and safe IMO. I don't see how either can significantly improve upon their #s this year. Wall/George are much more high risk/high reward here.

Interested in hearing what you all think.

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No particular order in each tier

1-3

KD, LBJ, AD

4-7

Harrden, Curry, CP3, Love

8-12

PG, Wall, Melo, LMA, Blake

12+

Ibaka, Dirk, Al, Noah, Millsap, Lowry, Batum, Kawhi, D-Will, Drummond, Dragic

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Assuming all players stay on their current teams...

1 Durant

2 Lebron

3 AD (Would be at 2 if wasn't such an injury risk and Pelicans were better with injury updates)

4 Love

5 Curry

6 Harden

7 CP3 (Could be 4, but seems to miss several games every year)

8 Paul George

9 Melo

10 Ibaka

11 Dirk

12 LMA/Wall

I can't put Griffin as a first round pick because of the FT%. The only category I'm willing to take a hit with my first round pick is TO's.

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All things constant, these are my top 8:

1) KD 2) ADavis 3) Steph 4) CP3 5) LBJ 6) Love 7) Harden 8) Melo

You put Dirk next and I gotta disagree. Dirk will be 36 in about two months. I don't trust him as a top 10 pick. He's gonna decline at any moment, who knows when it'll be. Just look at Pierce and Garnett.

For my 9 and 10 I'd probably take Wall or Ibaka. Then PG.

I do think it is kinda early though >_>, but sometimes I enjoy speculating.

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Lillard in 9-cat? He's putting up 3rd round value on the year and that's boosted by some unsustainable GOAT level shooting at the beginning of the year.

Without thinking about it too much for 9-cat.

1) Durant - easy

2) AD - Yes he's an injury risk but LBJ is basically a lock to rested down the stretch. It's not like Spo will ramp up his minutes next year.

3) LBJ - If I had the third pick I'm not sure I would have the guts to take LBJ due to the shutdown risk. Move him to #2 if he's not in Miami.

4) Love

5) Paul - Still a beast on a per game basis. If he passes Love down the stretch, this will be something like his 7th top 3 finish in a row.

6) Curry

7) Harden

8) Melo - I was doubting him coming into the year, but he's been great. That 3P% improvement appears for real.

9) George - His awful stretches are still top 20 worthy.

10) Ibaka

11) Horford - Yep he'll be a risk but he couldn't possibly tear his pec a third time right? RIGHT?? Too steady for me to pass on. If he ever gets his FT% back to regular levels he'll have mid-first-round value.

12) Dirk - LMA seems like he's always beat up and I don't think there's a huge difference between Wall and the next crop of PGs.

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The way PG has been playing the past half of the season you guys still consider him a first rounder?

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Considering injury risk/durability, age, and potential:

1. Kevin Durant

2. LeBron James

3. Anthony Davis

4. Kevin Love

5. Stephen Curry

6. Chris Paul

7. James Harden

8. Paul George

9. Carmelo Anthony

10. LaMarcus Aldridge

11. Serge Ibaka

12. John Wall

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if it's for yahoo 9-cat

top 3 is

KD, AD, CP3

LBJ will be even worse than this year, so he's definitely not on my top 3 list.

then there are

LBJ, Kevin Love, Harden at 4-6

below them

curry, Noah, melo (but if he's moved to other team, he might not be so efficient)

Ibaka (safe pick, might not be first round output, but won't fall off too much)

Westbrook

Drummond/DeAndre Jordan (either one)

also playoff schedule is important to my picks.

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1 Durant

2 Unibrow

3 Love

4 LeBron

5 Curry

6 CP3

7 Harden

8 Melo

9 PG

10 Wall

11 Big Al

12 Westbrook

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1) KD- is this a question?

2) LBJ- best player on the planet and had one of his worst years in a while. When KD wins MVP he'll have a chip on his shoulder and come back a mad man. Bigger role on a different team? Yes please.

3) AD- would be #2 but he has too many injuries for me. However, nothing wrong with taking him second.

4) Love- as long as he stays away from injuries for the rest of the year, he's the certain #4 pick.

5/6) CP3/Curry- do you want more threes and points or more steals and assists? Curry has the edge just because of missing games.

7) Harden- slow start to the season and had a lesser role with Howard coming to town. Starting the year next year the Rockets will know how to best play with D12 (like they do now) and he'll be hot all year long.

8) Wall- is really turning up his game post-break (just like last year) and he's really evolved into an elite point guard. If he gets his jumper to start working, he could be a top five pick in the future.

9) Carmelo- who knows what he'll do in the offseason? He stays with NYK, he could be higher. He leaves, he could be lower. 9 is safe for now.

10) Iblaka- doesn't hurt you anywhere and is incredibly consistent. High floor and Great celing.

11) PG- terrible second half to the season. Could very well improve in the time to come, but as of now, he's not looking great.

12) LMA- would be higher if it wasn't for his awful second half and risk of injuries.

Honorable mention: Drummond (kills you in ft% but if you punt that, he's a top five player. Oh. He's also 20.) Westbrook (injuries), Dirk (he's old but he's a hall of famer. Nothing wrong with taking him in the first round), Horford (injuries), Big Al (early second), Milsap (early second), Blake (early second).

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1. KD

2. AD

3. Lebron

4. CP3

5. Curry

6. Love

7. Harden

8. Melo

9. Wall

10. Ibaka

I wouldn't mind switching either Wall or Ibaka for PG. But not a huge fan of PG in fantasy

Earliest 2nd rounders for me --> Horford, LMA, Gasol, Jefferson, Millsap, Dirk, M Gasol

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Unfortunately this is very relevant to me because most of the good players are being kept and I will prob be picking 2nd since I got decimated with injuries on 3 of my big guys this year, destroyed my reb/blks and some pts. Here is what I will be looking at:

1. Kevin Durant - Keeper

2. LBJ - Keeper

3. Anthony Davis - Keeper (he has always been injury prone, so per gm avg, #2, but total, #3)

4/5. Love/Curry - one will be a keeper and one will go #1 so I wont get either

6. CP3 - Keeper (now I consider him to miss more games than Curry (he plays much harder in traffic and reach ins) so... per game CP3 still better)

7. Melo - so this is where I end up, picking Melo #2 overall, sigh... anyways, he is the only remainder who can be top 5 with his fantasy friendly game that has FT%, pts, 3's, reb, and some steals and pretty low TO for a guy his tier (look at LBJ/KD)

8. Paul George - Like Melo, in his prime and can improve slightly from this year

9. Harden - Close to George, but his numbers dropped since Dwight got more touches and Parsons is another player who needs touches

10. Ageless Dirk - He missed a lot of time last year and this year he looks refreshed and healthy, no reason he cant repeat next year bu due to age, hard to put him higher than this right now

11. Iblocka - He is in his prime, has better offense than I expected, sitll gets blocks, and is just an overall better player and might even get better, but he cant get worse because Pacers are still hungry since I dont believe they will win it this year

Wall is a wild card, I would rather have Lowry, who will be my keeper, taking in my Rd8 spot, cant do better than that. He is a much better overall player, has finally learned to drive with power and be more consistent with the 3's, and is like a poor mans' CP3, but not that poor. I also see him as staying more healthy all year, wont be surprised if he ends up top 10 considering he is top 11 right now. This makes taking Melo #2 overall not hurt as bad as it should.

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You guys have that much confidence in Dirk? A top 10 pick? Someone else as high as 9?

Disregarding format, this season he's definitely worth a spot at number 10.

-Last season he only played 53 games, and that along with his production made him only ranked 100 on the player rater scale. A far cry from top 10.

-A year before that (2011-2012) I think he was #12-14 during different months on ESPN's player rater. But now we're getting 2 years back.

So we're gonna assume that, based on his absolute peak this year, he's gonna perform exactly just as well next year despite being two years removed from a healthy and younger season where he peaked at 12?

And the fact that he'll turn 36 this year? I'm just worried.

Maybe I'm wrong.

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anyone who doesn't draft lebron with first pick is not the sharpest tool in the shed... he is the best player to ever play and he keeps getting better... look what he did with his FG and 3pt percentages this year... trust me it will just get better... only player to have a chance to average a triple double.... i bet next season he shoots 85% fromt he stripe... just trust me

KD close second

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anyone who doesn't draft lebron with first pick is not the sharpest tool in the shed... he is the best player to ever play and he keeps getting better... look what he did with his FG and 3pt percentages this year... trust me it will just get better... only player to have a chance to average a triple double.... i bet next season he shoots 85% fromt he stripe... just trust me

KD close second

you must be out of your mind. KD was clearly better than him in fantasy last year and this year it is not even close.

kd is the one who is improving. lebron is staying about the same. kd in prime. lebron is not (he 29).

but you lost all credibility when you said he is the best player to ever player so ya

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anyone who doesn't draft lebron with first pick is not the sharpest tool in the shed... he is the best player to ever play and he keeps getting better... look what he did with his FG and 3pt percentages this year... trust me it will just get better... only player to have a chance to average a triple double.... i bet next season he shoots 85% fromt he stripe... just trust me

KD close second

Not sure if you're serious. Calling anyone for not drafting him first as "not the sharpest tool in the shed" is kinda ironic. His only significant advantage over KD is the fg% and even then KD's fg% is above the standard deviation which means he's a (+) in the fg % category.

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We all know it. This year has an amazing pool of NBA star potential rookies who could also be fantasy studs. What are your projections for this years top picks? Who are your draft sleepers?

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Cousins ahead of Dirk/LMA/Horford. I think he is a late 1st round pick, Cousins is playing better n better

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KDs average ppg is up to like 33 now and on a fg% of 50%+

He's in a league of his own in terms of fantasy

I'd take AD 2nd and lebron 3rd

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Cousins ahead of Dirk/LMA/Horford. I think he is a late 1st round pick, Cousins is playing better n better

Cousins is great. But some things to watch out for: Huge turnovers for a big, techs pile up and can lead to missed games, suspensions, and ft% shooting - his percentage isn't terrible, but he gets to the line so often that it can really hurt.

- but otherwise, his stats definitely look late first/early 2nd i agree

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You guys have that much confidence in Dirk? A top 10 pick? Someone else as high as 9?

Disregarding format, this season he's definitely worth a spot at number 10.

-Last season he only played 53 games, and that along with his production made him only ranked 100 on the player rater scale. A far cry from top 10.

-A year before that (2011-2012) I think he was #12-14 during different months on ESPN's player rater. But now we're getting 2 years back.

So we're gonna assume that, based on his absolute peak this year, he's gonna perform exactly just as well next year despite being two years removed from a healthy and younger season where he peaked at 12?

And the fact that he'll turn 36 this year? I'm just worried.

All I'm thinking is, TIMMYYYYY and replace blocks w/threes... no one thought TIMMMYYYY could block shots anymore, and 3's translate a lot better through age than blocks, esp from a guy who is under 7ft. These lumbering, slower big guys with massive skills have numbers that translate well as long as they are healthy. Dirk has been durable for most of his career. He will play more games than TIMMMMYY and has his big injury out of the way.... so actually there is no reason to think he CANT repeat next year unless something bad happens in his life again.

anyone who doesn't draft lebron with first pick is not the sharpest tool in the shed... he is the best player to ever play and he keeps getting better... look what he did with his FG and 3pt percentages this year... trust me it will just get better... only player to have a chance to average a triple double.... i bet next season he shoots 85% fromt he stripe... just trust me

KD close second

Close second huh... I thought all Lebron fanboys thought he is the only player that matters, there is no close second. This post woulda been funnier if you said Larry Sanders a close second.

I'd take AD 2nd and lebron 3rd

Only no because Lebron is a lot more durable than AD from what history says, buy if per game stats, AD hands down.

Cousins ahead of Dirk/LMA/Horford. I think he is a late 1st round pick, Cousins is playing better n better

No because.......

Cousins is great. But some things to watch out for: Huge turnovers for a big, techs pile up and can lead to missed games, suspensions, and ft% shooting - his percentage isn't terrible, but he gets to the line so often that it can really hurt.

- but otherwise, his stats definitely look late first/early 2nd i agree

...this... and his brain... something is still wrong with the guy... kinda like an Artest/Rasheed hybrid, where at any time he can just lose it and u never know how many halves, games, weeks he will miss because of it and when he spaces out. I can literally see him swing uncontrollably and hit an official across the face and get a 50 game suspension. This is not a guess, actions like this have happened to him every year he's been playing. Until he shows some restraint in his emotions, no way he goes ahead of Dirk/Horford even Drummond, next year anyways. But I do love his pts, reb, steals although I think a guy of his talent should have more blocks. Sometimes I feel like the guy doesnt know how to play basketball yet. When he learns properly, and IF he gets his head straight, I say he can be a first rounder someday at a tasty 24ppg/13rpg/1.7st/2blk with better %'s. But right now, FYI, Robin Lopez i way ahead of him in the rankings.

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It's really difficult to talk about rookie values, especially for redraft leagues since it's going to come to what team they will go to.

I think whichever top pick lands on the Bucks, Lakers, and Sixers will have a lot of value.

I'd be pretty surprised if Embid was a stud from day 1, but obviously has a great future. Parker over Wiggins for year 1 makes some sense because I think Parker is probably a better scorer and will have more of an offensive role (in a vaccum), Id rather my real team draft Wiggins because he seems to have a lot of upside as a two-way player like George.

Smart, Exum, and Ennis could be really great fantasy assets next year if they have a starter role. Problem is, there are only so many teams who a rookie PG would clearly be an upgrade for in year 1.

If you look at the bottom 12 teams picking only the Lakers and Bucks really slide in well for adding in a PG. Then even after those teams, can you think of someone outside of Miami who doesnt have a really good starter?

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Borderline impossible for me at this point. It'd help to know which teams players go to, the coaches especially. Pretty much cut and paste any mock draft and the top picks could or could not be relevant depending on the teams and coaches and depth charts, along with rookie confidence and their adjustment to the NBA game..

My sleeper pick, top pick or not, is PJ Hairston. I could see him having value with 3pters and steals, and I can never get enough of those in Fantasy.

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