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My Dinner With Andre

John Lackey 2014 Outlook

98 posts in this topic

Last year he basically returned to his Angels peak. In those years he was drafted in the 60s-70s.

This year in my league he was drafted (by me) at pick 281.

Overrated then, but underrated now.

Oh yea, he doesn't even have a thread yet. That should reinforce how ridiculously undervalued he is.

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He's a good waiver tout. I already added him in a league he was sitting out there.

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I had him as my #15 SP in the AL, #36 overall. Seriously undervalued.

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I was amazed at how late he was going in drafts. Guy went 3.52, 1.16 for the World Series champions last year. He's older but not super old. Why would you not take him in round 25-28 (where I took him in all three of my leagues)? An injury history sure, but not to the point where he should fall that far after what he did in 189 innings last year.

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His schedule is just brutal in that division, he starts the year @BAL, TEX, @NYY. It's the same thing all year too, that's why I hate owning pitchers in that division. Putting up a 3.50/1.16 last year in that division is actually very impressive. For my back end starters in mixed leagues I almost always play matchups and only use pitchers facing weak lineups, but I guess you either suck it up and roll him despite the bad matchups or not own him because this is what is going to be all year in the AL East.

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His schedule is just brutal in that division, he starts the year @BAL, TEX, @NYY. It's the same thing all year too, that's why I hate owning pitchers in that division. Putting up a 3.50/1.16 last year in that division is actually very impressive. For my back end starters in mixed leagues I almost always play matchups and only use pitchers facing weak lineups, but I guess you either suck it up and roll him despite the bad matchups or not own him because this is what is going to be all year in the AL East.

That's the decision one has to make regarding all al east pitchers.

As an exercise let's look at it this way. Would you rank Archer, Moore, Buchholz, Tillman, Dickey, Tanaka, Kuroda, or Nova over him? And if so, why? Lackey's supporting stats were as good if not better than all of the pitchers listed above. The only reason to ding Lackey is if you think he's going to get hurt or lose his stuff from last season.

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Just don't premise the question as: Why wouldn't you take Lackey in the 26-29th rounds? My answer would be: Because I took Tim Hudson there. I have no problem with the Lackey Camp, just don't make it sound like a no-brainer when other options there exist.

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This guy is the Red Sox ace.

Last year 189 IP, 3.50 xERA, 7.7 k/9, 1.9 BB/9, 4.0 k/bb, Swk 10%, 47% GB rate, 29% BABIP, 13% HR/FB rate.

1st half - 78 IP, 3.27 xERA, 8.4 k/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.3 k/bb, Swk 9%, 50% GB rate, 31% BABIP, 14% HR/FB rate.

2nd half - 111 IP, 3.66 xERA, 7.1 k/9, 1.9 BB/9, 3.8 k/bb, Swk 11%, 45% GB rate, 28% BABIP, 13% HR/FB rate.

His second half numbers include a September in which he was pretty bad with a 4.98 ERA. I would attribute that to fatigue after having not pitched at all in 2012. I expect him to be closer to his first half numbers than second.

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John Lackey ~ Hiroki Kuroda

I'll be very impressed if John can stave off the age demons in his 35-38yo seasons as Hiroki has done. Very &@$%*** impressed.

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Buy the line.

I'm sure plenty of people already benched the guy vs. Baltimore to "see how he would do" and also benched him vs. Texas. You're already behind the curve.

Don't play games.

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:lol: I have no idea what you're talking about. "Games" is all we have!

Anyway I just picked him up so I aint benched him yet. Trying to take the temperature on this start. Righty, Yankee Stadium, it's warm out. Etc.

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Hmmm... need to decide whether to roll out Lackey today after his last game drubbing of 5.2IP, 6 ER, and 10 hits. The previous go-around with the Orioles was 6 IP, 2 ERs, 3H, and 6 Ks. Which Lackey will show up today?

Sat Salazar yesterday and that was the correct decision, so think I'm doing the same today with Lackey.

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I'm starting him in all leagues where I own him. Good numbers against the Orioles. The drubbing he took last time was in Yankee stadium, where he got knocked around last year, too.

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He has pretty substantial home road splits last year (far better at home) for whatever its worth. 2.47/1.03 at home last year.

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1st pitch in the game and its down the left field line and replay shows its foul, they take 15 minutes looking at the replay and STILL get the call wrong. And of course 2 batters later an infield single scores the run. :rolleyes:

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Getting destroyed. Dropped him in my fantasy league and the Sox should put him out of his misery tonight.

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4 or so of the singles were easy ground balls. One in that last inning was right under Carps glove and of course ruled a single costing an extra 2 runs. Please dear god take him out before he gives up 9 earned. I bet he pitches the next inning anyway.

I'm done though, I don't want to deal with the AL east.

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He was at like 92% using his fastball. He doesn't exactly have blow you away stuff. He needs to mix in some breaking/off speed pitches.

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looking great tonight vs. NYY (albeit a freezing cold game with the wind blowing hard in)

gets 2 starts next week, both @home vs. TB and Oak.

a ton of leagues dropped him after his bad starts lately...maybe time to roll him back out there?

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