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kidtwentytwo

At what point do you cut bait on a player?

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I preface this by saying BE PATIENT! We overreact too much, but this is probably the most important question you'll ask yourself over the next 2 months.

What if CC has 4 more bad outings? What if Justin Upton continues to be terrible? How long do you go with a young guy like a Yelich or Avisail Garcia? How long do you hold a Cody Allen in hopes that Axford implodes?

Much of this depends on the depth of your league and who is available on the wire...but there's also trades. Curious to hear what others say.

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It depends when the player was drafted. The earlier the player was drafted the longer leash he deserves before he's cut. If someone I drafted in the 4th round struggles he probably has half the season to turn it around before I think about dropping him (though he should probably be traded away by that point). If a late round flier has a bad three weeks he's probably gone unless I truly believe in his talent.

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If they don't go 4-4 with a grand slam and at least 2 SB in their first game, I cut bait.

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June! A couple of years ago I dropped morrow to early and he went on a hot streak. Last year it was D. brown. He had a bad April but everyone knows how that turned out . If you don't have patience your playing the wrong game.

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It depends on how marginal a player might be relative to the rest of the roster. I also think that you should roster hot players and get the stats while the players are hot. Sometimes I drop a player who I think might stay in the waiver pool just to grab a player who is playing very well, only to pick up the same player I dropped a week or so later.

It's always a tough call, and you just have to take chances.

Why put someone on your bench for 2 weeks (wait for a pitchers 4 starts) when there is someone who will excel on the waiver wire who can help your team? If the guy you dropped sucks for 2 weeks, he will still be there on the waiver wire, and you didn't waste a bench spot with someone who can't give you good stats. If the guy you dropped turns it around and starts producing again, you have an equal shot to pick him back up, but if not, oh well. You have to trust your ability to rotate through the waiver wire.

And since these are players who are on the margins of your team roster, it's not gonna make a huge dent, unless you picked up a player like CC for you number one starter -- in which case, you were rather foolish.

Sometimes a player sucks for 2 months before the good stats arrive. If it's just one player, okay, but if you got 4 or 5 players who are sucking big time, I suggest you drop 2 of them and pick up better options. More than likely the players you pick up will work for at least the short-term, and sometimes actually will do better in the long term than the guy you dropped. Don't stay married to your pet draft picks. Use the waiver wire.

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I'd cut CC as soon as possible!

I've seen enough it know that he's not up to my snobby standards when it comes to pitching.

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There is no simple answer, because settings for bench, WW depth & ceiling for players in question all factor in.

For a player you believed in as a core player, you stay patient no matter what, unless you have confirmation of a serious injury (and no, Braun's thumb doesn't count...yet). For pitchers, signs of serious velo decline, or complete lack of command are huge red flags.

For a player with a huge ceiling, you stay patient - especially if they are getting the shaft PT-wise (now that Larussa & Baker are gone, only Scioscia & Roenicke can drive you nuts LOL).

That's on the player side.

On the roster side - if you have very few bench spots, then you have to be a little more selective - but in reality, if you have very few bench spots, you must have a very deep WW. There, you drop guys more liberally.

Finally, it depends on the WW depth - if you have a lot of serviceable options (3-OF leagues for example), then you can drop guys who are limited-ceiling guys. If you have few to no options, you're stuck - having a mediocre CL in competitive CL-pickup leagues is a good example, as witnessed by the monthly CL thread (Papelbon, I'm looking at you). :lol:

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I'd cut CC as soon as possible!

I've seen enough it know that he's not up to my snobby standards when it comes to pitching.

Listen to this.

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It's a more interesting topic than one may think.

For me, I'd be reluctant to cut a guy loose after he killed my ratios. What's the point in that? Someone else can then just scoop him up for nothing and profit from the correction. Typically I'm looking for a guy to make at least an average contribution (e.g. 4.00 ERA 1.30 WHIP from say, CC) and not just be a complete poison pill. Basically, he needs to "fix what he broke".

Second, April is always interesting because it skews one's perception of a player. There are six months in a season. Say a guy hits .200 in one month and exactly .300 in the other five. If that .200 month comes in August, no one give a $hit. If it happens in April the dude is on the chopping block. You need to trust your opinion on the player, his underlying peripheral statistics, his track record and also simply be patient.

I've seen it before; guys getting the axe too early (especially pitchers). I am usually the first to pounce.

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It obviously depends on who the player is.

I dropped Tanner Scheppers immediately after his poor start. Was it a quick trigger? Only hindsight will tell, but Odorizzi and Richards were sitting on the wire and I picked one of them up in the hopes that they would be better, and thus far they have been.

At the same time, despite mediocre starts, I wouldn't imagine dropping Yelich, Garcia, or especially Gyorko. If Yelich or Garcia had amazingly bad Aprils I might drop, and I probably wouldn't drop Gyorko for close to two months if he were still getting regular ABs.

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I think you should look at deeper numbers than just the yahoo statistics. a player could be driving the ball well but just having bad luck. same goes the other way with a player having good luck.

as games go on I'll check things such as BB%, K%, BABIP, LD%, FB%, HR/FB.

right now there has only been a handful of games, so it's too early to really tell on players who had good projections. if you were taking a late flyer on someone it's not too soon even now to cut, but you don't want to cut someone too soon who had higher expectations and hasn't had that success yet.

for example for me. I'm still hanging onto Moustakas, even though he is 0 for 12 on the season. in 12 AB he only has 1 K. although this is also a 16 team league.

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I have so many war stories of cutting guys too early even guys I dradted late. For instance I had drafted Lind super late a few years ago and he started of cold as all hell. I dropped him and he literally knocked me out the playoffs and was the reason that team won championship.

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I like to have one disposable batter on my team so I have room for the potentially huge free agent pickup of the year. Sometimes it backfires but most of the time it works. I dropped Khris Davis for Smoak earlier in the week.

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I cut Bryce already, but am waiting on Braun because I drafted him earlier.

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I've got Billy Hamilton on my bench, and that's me being patient. I'd like to keep him there until he hits but I'm still looking on the WW as always. If you don't have bench spots that makes it harder of course. I'm low on bench space and have to start Rizzo over Hamilton most days, unless Rizzo faces a lefty then Hamilton is in.... That's my plan for now.

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Yeah its tough to know when certain players just won't feel like they will make an impact. I dropped Teheran after April last year, and he sat there on FA for a good part of May too, but was snagged once he showed signs of getting hot. It happens to all of us at some point or another.

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Depends on your belief in the player. If you liked a player during the offseason, no reason to cut bait on April 5. I agree with a few posters that its easy to profit on a guy's correction. This is usually how I play out April. I try to use all of my pickups on closers in April, because I believe they have the best potential of any position to actually hold their value throughout the season. If a guy is struggling I bench him, and wait for him to heat up.

Someone like Yelich for example, Yelich actually has more ABs against lefties so far which has led to worse stats for him. When he plays more righties, he will improve. I think he will be good so I'm holding. The offense also looks solid in Miami right now so things are looking up for him. If he goes 2/4 in each of the next 2 games he will be up to .260, and everyone would have forgotten he slumped at all.

Keeping middle reliever stashes is much harder to decide. Nate Jones made the decision easy by letting us stash him on DL but if he wasn't hurt what do you do with him? For others, I'd keep until another closer is available on the wire. In essence, you are betting that he your guy has the best chance of being closer next, but you need that spot to produce saves eventually so grabbing a new closer is worth it.

I just always find it easier to let April play out, and then try to get the players on a hot streak during the later months. There will always be less people looking for these types of players later in the season.

You just have to keep it in context. Hunter Pence is 1/20 right now. We just can't make a judgment on a few games. After April, everything is fair game. Personally, I'd probably wait until May 7th, just because some guys mentally see a new month while in a slump and they break out. You also have to consider the weather with some guys as well.

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I don't like outright cutting players, so if there's value, I'll try to trade them first. I did that last year with Jesus Montero, and luckily I did that this preseason with CC. Good prospects and former fantasy greats still carry some value with some owners.

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I've got a couple of those referenced players on some of my teams.

Have CC on 2 teams where he fell so low i thought a last round flyer was worth it. Already paying for that thought. Not cutting him yet, but he'll be on my bench next outing at Toronto (that being said, CC seems to play better against good offenses, and then pitch horribly against weak offenses).

I have J-Up on several of my teams, and for now, he stays in my lineup, killing my average. I expect him to wake up, and he's the kind of streaky player that you want to have in your lineup when he gets hot. I'll suffer some additional 0-4 days to make sure i catch his breakout game.

I tend to give the players i drafted in the first 10 rounds a pretty long leash. I drafted these guys for a reason, and coming out of the gate cold isn't changing my opinion all that much. The late flyers who have playing time/lineup spot questions might get axed if it seems like they're not falling into the role i had expected/hoped, if a worthwhile player is available on waivers. Of course, with all the injuries already this year, i can grab some FAs without having to drop anyone....

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there are too many variables in play here.

but i've taken advantage of many a cut too early players over the years. Jose Fernandez last year, Justin Upton in his breakout year, years ago when he came out of the gates with one of the worst April's ever, I can go on and on. People are often too impatient, rather than too stubborn; and I think this can be detrimental to success. I probably lean more to the stubborn side as I keep players much longer than most, but I've been very successful in my keeper league anyway.

For me it's all about a track record with that player. The better the track record, the longer leash I'll generally give him. Minors included.

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Take a look at the craziness in the Ryan Braun thread. Insanity.

The DFS culture has taken a lot of patience and common sense from standard fantasy baseball.

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A lot of people actually dropped Carlos Gomez and Kipnis last year after they s*** the bed to start the season. That didn't turn out too well for them.

I dropped Teheran in one league last year and Fernandez in two leagues (traded him for Segura in one league) after the first month. It's tougher with guys who have no track record. And Fernandez was being babied in all of those starts.

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Take a look at the craziness in the Ryan Braun thread. Insanity.

The DFS culture has taken a lot of patience and common sense from standard fantasy baseball.

Well Braun may have to undergo surgery. Don't you think the insanity is justified?

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When they're players with little or no track record of success In the majors despite sufficient service time, and we're drafted mainly due to their hot spring, change in approach/stance/repertoire, and/or pedigree.

The guy this year that fit all these criteria has been Moustakas, drafted him in most of my leagues and cut in all but one. Not gonna hold onto him when Smoaks, Fowlers, Almontes and even the McGehees and Collabellos are available. I judge what are the chances someone else will pick them up and how crestfallen I'd be if that happened.

Was tougher to drop Reddick who I also drafted in multiple leagues. Saw some of his ABS and was thoroughly unimpressed. OTOH, I dropped Seager and Machado last year and regretted it all seasom. Won't cut bait on Avisail yet. Saw in Yahoo research that some ppl were dropping Dozier, which I think is crazy considering his position and power/speed potentisl.

My philosophy when I drop a player though is to then treat that player as if you never owned him. So that if he gets hot you have no reservations about picking him up again.

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