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PackersFan1979

The "Wait-on-a-QB" Draft Strategy (2014 Edition)

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Curious to get everyones thoughts here. I know the position is deep, but is the "Ill wait for Romo" thing a bit overstated at times? Im basing the below on std, 4pt TD league scoring. This year QB is probably the deepest I think it has ever been.

Its not the total points over a season averaged out, its week to week scoring that has me wondering if I am not missing a trick here by always being one of the last guys to grab a QB.

I had Romo and Rivers last year in two very competitive leagues, both of whom finished top 10 in Std scoring. It dawns on me every time I wait on QB that I almost always have the same problem. I never go into a week feeling confident with them, even when they have what looks like a good match up.

Its their week to week scoring that can absolutely kill you at times. They have the odd monster game that bumps their seasonal points overall, but there are some weeks where they break you in half. And because this is the highest scoring position in your team, a bad day at the office for your QB can undo a lot of good work from the rest of your side.

Romo is a good example of this. He recorded 6 games where he put up less than 15 points, and another 2 games where he put up less than 10 points. Half the season where you are probably going to be behind whoever you are up against at that position. He only exceeded 22 points twice the entire season, one game which was a monster at 40 points against Denver. So he gets his seasonal average up and ends up a top 10QB, but he is not exactly winning you games and at the same time he is killing you some weeks when he falls to pieces.

Rivers is another good example. 7 games of 15 points or less, some of these against weak defenses. He had 3 scores over 23, which were the weeks where he ups his scoring average. How many games did Rivers win for you? He was a liability for me most of the season, and I ended up streaming him with Alex Smith and Andy Dalton at times. It killed my waiver priority, not to mention him having decent games on my bench because he was so unpredictable.

Drew Brees on the other hand? 5 games where he topped 28 points. Only 3 games the entire season where he scored less than 14, two of which were against CAR and SEA. Those weeks when he scored 28 plus, you were in the money. The weeks he hit something average, he never killed you.

Rodgers? Only played half a season. A terrible game for him was a 12 pointer against the Bengals, but in 7 games (I exclude the game he went down) he had 3 scores over 23 and a game at 34. The rest were above average.

Im starting to wonder if the value in drafting a good QB needs to be looked at a little differently.

1. Consistency - fewer bad weeks where your highest scoring position goes AWOL

2. Match winners - 3 or 4 times a season when they go off and put up big scores that could win you weeks

3. Overall production - its your highest scoring position, and if you run into the guy with Romo who is having a bad week and you had a monster game, you are looking at 15-20 point differences.

Over a season it may not seem like a big deal when we take total QB scores and divide by games played in a season, but during the season it has a big impact on winning head to head matches.

Thoughts?

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There certainly is no right or wrong in this argument. I have played fantasy for a long time and have had quite a bit of success and have never taken a QB before the 5th round, and I've played with guys who always take one in their first 3 picks and they have excelled as well. The reason I wait is a simple belief you win by having as many productive players as possible on your roster. By the time you reach the 7th, 8th, 9th rounds, you are typically drafting backs and receivers who are rolls of the dice. They may pan out and be productive for me, but often they are not. If I get my QB in those rounds,I have a much likelier chance of having a productive player. Sure he may not be as consistent as your early round QB, but I'm hoping the player I took instead of that early round QB (a stud RB or WR) more than makes up for the difference. That being said, I'll often try to trade for one of those top QBs once the season starts to get that consistency you show of.

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I think the formula for when to draft a QB is mostly dependent on league size, scoring and roster positions.

Scoring is pretty straight forward. If the league is 6 points for passing tds, you need that stud early.

If the league size is 14 with one starting QB or any size below with 2 starting QB, you have to go QB early.

Now if you played in a 4 point passing td league with 12 or fewer teams, then at that point it depends on the roster positions. If there are a lot of non qb slots and flex spots than you have to wait on QB.

Well this is my approach to QBs. I have made the playoffs in every league i play in for the past 3 years using this.

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The answer is simple for me: If the rbs, wrs, and te I snagged early, in lieu of a top rated quarterback pan out, it's a great decision. If not, the scramble for fas and trades is on in a hurry, and "wait til next year" can loom by week 4. Sorry if this is painfully obvious.

As it pertains to this season: I'm taking the best players that come to me each round, regardless of position. But, If I were in an auction, I probably wouldn't spend a lot on a qb. Ergo, I generally think waiting is worth the risk because of the position depth. The discomfort of rolling Romo or Rivers out there, for example is usually discomfort I can live with.

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Waited worked out pretty well for me last year. I intended to do it again and again until it is not successful

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"The Sanchez Factor"

I posted this last preseason, and mentioned Romo, I still think this theory is valid.

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=362990&st=20#entry3705651

I'd like to add my pet theory here, (I mentioned it in another thread). It's something I called the s--- the bed factor in the strategy thread, but to clean it up for kids, I'm going to call it the Sanchez Factorâ„¢

Basically, the more QB friendly a leagues scoring system is, the more important avoiding a Quarterbacks bad games become.

For example, in the league mentioned, Brees and Romo have a 72 pt gap, or 4.5 points per game.

But from the QB spot, you can pick out games where Romo put less than 10 points last year. Because the expected amount of points QB's will put up is so much higher than other positions in qb friendly leagues your odds of losing when your QB has a Mark Sanchez like day go up dramatically.

So while fantasy players like to cite the low gap between QB's ppg I think an overlooked factor is how badly the lower tier QBs play on a week to week basis. Basically, how low is their floor, and how likely are they to go out there and have a Sanchezesque fantasy performance that sinks your team for a week?

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Posted · Hidden by Red Sox Nation, August 4, 2014 - No reason given · Report post

I'm curious as to when you guys think I should draft a QB in my main league. It's a 16-team, PPR, IDP league with 4 pt passing TDs. I grabbed Peyton in the 3rd round the first year and had Kaepernick as a 25th round keeper last year, so I didn't have to worry about QB in 2013. Stud LBs can score like WRs, so I'm drafting for LBs by the 8th or 9th round. Would you draft Peyton or Rodgers in the 1st/2nd round or wait on QB in my league?

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I find qbs and tes share a similarity in the way they get drafted. It all comes down to when your league mates start drafting thinning out the positions.

You can pretty clearly rank how qbs will come off the board (granted with some variability of +-2 positions). The key is to monitor the activity of your league to make sure you get the qb you want.

If you're targeting top tier (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) you've gotta bite fast because once the run starts, you've got at most 1 chance to get your guy.

Once the second tier starts getting drafted, same mentality, grab your guy as soon as you get the chance.

If you want the top of a given tier, you have to start the run. If you want a mid/lower ranked guy in a tier, you wait until the first one bites then execute.

This is just my strategy. I prefer to draft qbs an tes relatively rather than as absolute x round picks.

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"Ill wait for Romo"

I think this is the source of confusion for a lot of people... Romo is looked at as the border between a starter and the backups to put it simplistically.

If you just rephrase to "I'll wait for value" then you can make your team better.

I look at it like this (for a basic 12 team league)...

Most of the way through round two the high end RBs and elite WRs are all gone. If you spend one of those picks on a QB you're whole roster at one of those positions suffers... your RB1 is only as good as most teams RB2, your RB2 is = a 3 etc. unless you get really lucky and land a sleeper (could be talking WRs depending on your draft strat).

The next two - two and a half rounds are full of solid skill players that have minor questions or obvious potential to break out, but haven't yet... there's a ton of value players here, just not at the QB position unless a top 3 guy slipped this far.

Round 5 is where the quality of the WRs and RBs starts to plummet, but there's probably still 8 or 9 of the top 12 QBs on the board that'll get drafted by round 8 or so, for me this is where the QB sweet spot starts.

Figure out a few QBs that you trust to produce decent points but not lose you games, and watch for them to come available in these rounds. I oversimplify but you should get it.

There's a point where holding out for Romo (or whatever QB you have ranked around 12th) costs you value because waiting longer means you're drafting scrubs and bench players over quality QBs like Ryan or Kaep.

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Posted · Hidden by Red Sox Nation, August 4, 2014 - No reason given · Report post

I'm curious as to when you guys think I should draft a QB in my main league. It's a 16-team, PPR, IDP league with 4 pt passing TDs. I grabbed Peyton in the 3rd round the first year and had Kaepernick as a 25th round keeper last year, so I didn't have to worry about QB in 2013. Stud LBs can score like WRs, so I'm drafting for LBs by the 8th or 9th round. Would you draft Peyton or Rodgers in the 1st/2nd round or wait on QB in my league?

With those settings I'd 100% wait. The RBs and stud receiver pool will dry up rapidly.

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"Ill wait for Romo"

I think this is the source of confusion for a lot of people... Romo is looked at as the border between a starter and the backups to put it simplistically.

If you just rephrase to "I'll wait for value" then you can make your team better.

I look at it like this (for a basic 12 team league)...

Most of the way through round two the high end RBs and elite WRs are all gone. If you spend one of those picks on a QB you're whole roster at one of those positions suffers... your RB1 is only as good as most teams RB2, your RB2 is = a 3 etc. unless you get really lucky and land a sleeper (could be talking WRs depending on your draft strat).

The next two - two and a half rounds are full of solid skill players that have minor questions or obvious potential to break out, but haven't yet... there's a ton of value players here, just not at the QB position unless a top 3 guy slipped this far.

Round 5 is where the quality of the WRs and RBs starts to plummet, but there's probably still 8 or 9 of the top 12 QBs on the board that'll get drafted by round 8 or so, for me this is where the QB sweet spot starts.

Figure out a few QBs that you trust to produce decent points but not lose you games, and watch for them to come available in these rounds. I oversimplify but you should get it.

There's a point where holding out for Romo (or whatever QB you have ranked around 12th) costs you value because waiting longer means you're drafting scrubs and bench players over quality QBs like Ryan or Kaep.

If you're mentioning it like that then your QB is gonna be much higher than your opponent. I'm not a fan of rolling with a Rivers/Romo as like someone posted above. Having them tank will lose your week. Having your number two RB tank won't destroy you.

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As an owner who always waits on a QB, I never want the 10th QB in a 10 team league, or the 12th in a 12 team league. I don't want that last guy that I have no choice but to take, I start to look when there are about 4 or 5 of the guys I consider starters still available. I find this usually always gets me a guy I really like who doesn't have near as many down weeks.

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Another thing to remember is when people say that if you wait on QB you're gonna be in the hole each week, that's only true when you are playing one of the top QBs and there are usually only 2 or 3 of them. So in a 12 team league, there are maybe 3 weeks where your QB may put you in a hole, but the other 8 weeks you will be going against other teams that also waited on a QB. So you waited and got Luck or Rivers, big deal, you're not facing Manning or Brees every week. 75 percent of the time your going against Wilson, or Ryan, or Kap, guys who are just as likely to toss in a bad week as your guy.

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75 percent of the time your going against Wilson, or Ryan, or Kap, guys who are just as likely to toss in a bad week as your guy.

I want to delve into this further but haven't had the time. I think guys like Wilson might have a higher floor than others, and I think there is value in finding a higher floor QB later in 4pt TD leagues (maybe even 6pt td leagues). Some of this is due to rushing, but some of it is just due to accuracy/lack of turnovers. My overall opinion is that Wilson's "Sanchez Factor" is much lower than Romos, even if he doesn't put up the occasional outstanding game like Romo does. I need to research stats still to back that up. But if you are waiting on QB, I think you are better finding a consistent scorer at QB (if they exist...)than a random one.

I also feel the need to repeat this for everyone...scoring system matters! The difference between a QB that throws 15 ints in a -2 for ints league vs -1 can be huge on a game to game basis (i.e. the Sanchez Factor).

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75 percent of the time your going against Wilson, or Ryan, or Kap, guys who are just as likely to toss in a bad week as your guy.

I want to delve into this further but haven't had the time. I think guys like Wilson might have a higher floor than others, and I think there is value in finding a higher floor QB later in 4pt TD leagues (maybe even 6pt td leagues). Some of this is due to rushing, but some of it is just due to accuracy/lack of turnovers. My overall opinion is that Wilson's "Sanchez Factor" is much lower than Romos, even if he doesn't put up the occasional outstanding game like Romo does. I need to research stats still to back that up. But if you are waiting on QB, I think you are better finding a consistent scorer at QB (if they exist...)than a random one.

I also feel the need to repeat this for everyone...scoring system matters! The difference between a QB that throws 15 ints in a -2 for ints league vs -1 can be huge on a game to game basis (i.e. the Sanchez Factor).

Couldn't agree more. Little factors like interceptions, fumbles, etc all add up in my league. One of the supporting reasons I like going after guys like Manning, Rodgers, etc. Two interceptions equals a TD in my league. I think you can go either way and win, but I hate the drama of starting the right guy and he puts up a dud while the bench guy has a good game.

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75 percent of the time your going against Wilson, or Ryan, or Kap, guys who are just as likely to toss in a bad week as your guy.

I want to delve into this further but haven't had the time. I think guys like Wilson might have a higher floor than others, and I think there is value in finding a higher floor QB later in 4pt TD leagues (maybe even 6pt td leagues). Some of this is due to rushing, but some of it is just due to accuracy/lack of turnovers. My overall opinion is that Wilson's "Sanchez Factor" is much lower than Romos, even if he doesn't put up the occasional outstanding game like Romo does. I need to research stats still to back that up. But if you are waiting on QB, I think you are better finding a consistent scorer at QB (if they exist...)than a random one.

I also feel the need to repeat this for everyone...scoring system matters! The difference between a QB that throws 15 ints in a -2 for ints league vs -1 can be huge on a game to game basis (i.e. the Sanchez Factor).

Couldn't agree more. Little factors like interceptions, fumbles, etc all add up in my league. One of the supporting reasons I like going after guys like Manning, Rodgers, etc. Two interceptions equals a TD in my league. I think you can go either way and win, but I hate the drama of starting the right guy and he puts up a dud while the bench guy has a good game.

Exactly, nothing worse than trying to pick match ups and being wrong thus having a higher scoring QB on the bench even though the match up was better for your starter.

Not only do you get the weekly advantage at QB typically (which should make up for not having a better RB or WR some where else on your team), unless you play one of the other guys who has 1 of the big 3 (Manning, Rodgers, Brees), it also gives you the opportunity not to carry a backup QB except for 1 week. This opens up a bench spot for an additional RB/WR/TE.

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75 percent of the time your going against Wilson, or Ryan, or Kap, guys who are just as likely to toss in a bad week as your guy.

I want to delve into this further but haven't had the time. I think guys like Wilson might have a higher floor than others, and I think there is value in finding a higher floor QB later in 4pt TD leagues (maybe even 6pt td leagues). Some of this is due to rushing, but some of it is just due to accuracy/lack of turnovers. My overall opinion is that Wilson's "Sanchez Factor" is much lower than Romos, even if he doesn't put up the occasional outstanding game like Romo does. I need to research stats still to back that up. But if you are waiting on QB, I think you are better finding a consistent scorer at QB (if they exist...)than a random one.

I also feel the need to repeat this for everyone...scoring system matters! The difference between a QB that throws 15 ints in a -2 for ints league vs -1 can be huge on a game to game basis (i.e. the Sanchez Factor).

Couldn't agree more. Little factors like interceptions, fumbles, etc all add up in my league. One of the supporting reasons I like going after guys like Manning, Rodgers, etc. Two interceptions equals a TD in my league. I think you can go either way and win, but I hate the drama of starting the right guy and he puts up a dud while the bench guy has a good game.

Exactly, nothing worse than trying to pick match ups and being wrong thus having a higher scoring QB on the bench even though the match up was better for your starter.

Not only do you get the weekly advantage at QB typically (which should make up for not having a better RB or WR some where else on your team), unless you play one of the other guys who has 1 of the big 3 (Manning, Rodgers, Brees), it also gives you the opportunity not to carry a backup QB except for 1 week. This opens up a bench spot for an additional RB/WR/TE.

That's another big one. I love drafting all my sleepers and watching them develop. I don't carry no backup QB,TE,K, or D. I just use my bench for RB and WR. Granted there's exceptions where I had Gronk on my bench until he was traded and at one point I had Carolina and KC, but barring situations like that I use my bench for sleepers not matchup play QB's.

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No one has really mentioned that you can't simply compare QB to QB. You'd need to include the corresponding round of the alternate position. Thus, Brees + L. Fitzgerald vs Dez Bryant and Matt Stafford.

The question then becomes which 'combo' of players has the higher floor/ceiling, avg PPG etc.

I see it done fairly often, but I personally believe it's impossible to simply compare a single position/draft round.

As for waiting on QB... If I wait, I stream. And I don't stream with 2 guys on my bench, I drop one each week and pick up the FA or WW QB with the best matchup. Defense Secondaries are usually pretty consistently good or bad, and QB matchups are fairly predictable.

Granted this is very league specific, because of how dependent it is on your opponents drafting a backup QB.

The smaller the league, the more I prefer streaming.

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No one has really mentioned that you can't simply compare QB to QB. You'd need to include the corresponding round of the alternate position. Thus, Brees + L. Fitzgerald vs Dez Bryant and Matt Stafford.

The question then becomes which 'combo' of players has the higher floor/ceiling, avg PPG etc.

I see it done fairly often, but I personally believe it's impossible to simply compare a single position/draft round.

As for waiting on QB... If I wait, I stream. And I don't stream with 2 guys on my bench, I drop one each week and pick up the FA or WW QB with the best matchup. Defense Secondaries are usually pretty consistently good or bad, and QB matchups are fairly predictable.

Granted this is very league specific, because of how dependent it is on your opponents drafting a backup QB.

The smaller the league, the more I prefer streaming.

That's ballsy. I couldn't do that lol I think that kind of drama fits in with having, or in this case, picking the right QB. In my ten teamer I'm probably gonna drop my mid second pick on Rodgers. I think going Lacy/Rodgers would be a fun tandem to watch.

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I made it to the championship in both my leagues with Kaep in one and Romo in the other. I lost both. I feel like I made it there despite those two and will shoot for a higher upside QB this year without reaching for Brees, Manning or Rodgers.... so hopefully Foles?

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In a 4 point passing TD league which is what I play the "how late" depends on format. In a 14 team league in which 4 receivers must start it's very hard for me to draft a QB before some league mates begin drafting their backup QBs. In a more conventional league the QB may be as early as round 5. In my auction league I typically keep nominating QBs until I get 2 for no more than $10 total (last season Romo and Foles). There is no reason to draft earlier as you will be too weak at your other skill positions. While I don't play in shallow formats if you do I would think you should draft a QB early, because in 10 and under leagues every team will be loaded and the impact of the highest scoring position will be magnified.

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In a 4 point passing TD league which is what I play the "how late" depends on format. In a 14 team league in which 4 receivers must start it's very hard for me to draft a QB before some league mates begin drafting their backup QBs. In a more conventional league the QB may be as early as round 5. In my auction league I typically keep nominating QBs until I get 2 for no more than $10 total (last season Romo and Foles). There is no reason to draft earlier as you will be too weak at your other skill positions. While I don't play in shallow formats if you do I would think you should draft a QB early, because in 10 and under leagues every team will be loaded and the impact of the highest scoring position will be magnified.

I'm in a 10 man. The reason I think you should pick a QB early is because of the dilemma of picking the right vs wrong QB and sometimes 1-2 roster spots on your bench for backup QB's is wasted space. I'd rather have an Aaron Rodgers and have my lottery tickets on my bench.

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In early mock drafts on fantasyfootballcalculator, I have taken a varied approach. If I can get one of the top three (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) in the third, I will do it. If not, I am one of the last to take a qb as I see no real difference between the next 9, however you rank them.

However, I would prefer to get one of the top 3, and at this early stage I feel like I am prepared to draft accordingly. The reasons for this are a few: First, I think WR is incredibly deep and I find I can get bargains on guys I think will be more than serviceable. Second, its just as much about high floor as it is high ceiling. Those top 3 are almost certain to give you a top 5 qb campaign, barring injury. With that much of a guarantee, and with the field littered with a large handful of others who have potential to break the top 5, the third reason comes into play: No need to draft a backup for one week, and worry about the bye week when it comes. If he happens to get injured, there is probably a serviceable qb on the wire. Last year I rolled with Tannehill in a few leagues to to Vick injuries, and he was adequate. With an arguably deeper class this year, there is a greater chance of finding a serviceable qb on the wire. The wire, however, is no guarantee like having Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees. With one of those guys, you are free to fill your bench with more high upside but easily cuttable guys.

I'm in the camp that I would rather buy more lottery tickets on the megajackpot than tickets for the bingo game at the county fair.

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In early mock drafts on fantasyfootballcalculator, I have taken a varied approach. If I can get one of the top three (Peyton, Rodgers, Brees) in the third, I will do it. If not, I am one of the last to take a qb as I see no real difference between the next 9, however you rank them.

However, I would prefer to get one of the top 3, and at this early stage I feel like I am prepared to draft accordingly. The reasons for this are a few: First, I think WR is incredibly deep and I find I can get bargains on guys I think will be more than serviceable. Second, its just as much about high floor as it is high ceiling. Those top 3 are almost certain to give you a top 5 qb campaign, barring injury. With that much of a guarantee, and with the field littered with a large handful of others who have potential to break the top 5, the third reason comes into play: No need to draft a backup for one week, and worry about the bye week when it comes. If he happens to get injured, there is probably a serviceable qb on the wire. Last year I rolled with Tannehill in a few leagues to to Vick injuries, and he was adequate. With an arguably deeper class this year, there is a greater chance of finding a serviceable qb on the wire. The wire, however, is no guarantee like having Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees. With one of those guys, you are free to fill your bench with more high upside but easily cuttable guys.

I'm in the camp that I would rather buy more lottery tickets on the megajackpot than tickets for the bingo game at the county fair.

A++ write up lol

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I made it to the championship in both my leagues with Kaep in one and Romo in the other. I lost both. I feel like I made it there despite those two and will shoot for a higher upside QB this year without reaching for Brees, Manning or Rodgers.... so hopefully Foles?

Folgers will be expensive. He is what? Near the forth QB? Ryan looks like a good reliable prospect. Maybe RGIII if you want more upside.

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