Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Rabbit Maranville

Gavin Floyd 2014 Outlook

90 posts in this topic

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drafted him as a DL stash on draft day and may have to drop him now. He'll surely get a rotation spot eventually (likely Harang's) but who knows how long that will take.

I am in love with the move to the NL and am confident he will have steady value once he's in the rotation... but not being able to make pickups while he's on my DL is a bit much :ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Floyd will get the start Tuesday in place of Santana.

Is this speculation? I haven't seen a report.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Floyd will get the start Tuesday in place of Santana.

Is this speculation? I haven't seen a report.

hurrah!!!

Eric Graff @TomahawkTalk

Santana gonna miss his next start, Floyd starting Tuesday for him, Simmons off today for "personal reasons", Ian Thomas to Gwinnett. #Barves

David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves will start Floyd on Tuesday, Santana has bruised thumb and hope to start him Saturday

Glad this came out today, was definitely about to drop him on Monday morning :P. The Braves are quite reasonable and I doubt they pull him from the rotation if he's half-decent. It's his 1st start back so I won't be rolling with him but praying he does well. They signed him to start and they realize he may start slow... if he's even serviceable I expect him to stick in the rotation (and bump Harang).. If Harang bounces back next start and Santana returns healthy, I expect them to move to a temporary 6-man rotation (The Braves have done it each of the last 2 seasons).

As far as him being "great" in CWS... he was underrated that's all I'll say. His stats never matched his peripherals but he was still serviceable. Now in the NL, the 4th overall pick from 2001 has a chance to be a TRUE sleeper that nobody is talking about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

Haha, was thinking the exact same thing when I read that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Set to be activated today by the Braves. Coming off of TJS, but he was always a fantastic starter for Chicago. Always had more value in real life than in fantasy, but that could change in Atlanta.

I'd love to see him bounce Harang from the rotation, but the expectation is that he'll be used out of the pen,

Isn't Hale already their long man? How will Floyd then be used?

Am I reading this correctly? You're saying he was 'fantastic' in Chicago?

Haha, was thinking the exact same thing when I read that.

Yeah, fantastic may be a bit much. But from 2009-2011, he was worth at least 3.4 fWAR every season. I think pitching in Chicago really caused him to be underrated, similar to Quintana now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was very good in Chicago during 2009-2011 *if* you believe his FIP/xFIP over that timeframe is more representative of his performance than ERA. But over that 3 year stretch he pretty dramatically underperformed his advanced metrics, and he never had a sub-4 ERA despite a ~3.6 xFIP. Now, 3 years later and removed from surgery, I would have very low expectations that he is actually a fantasy-relevant starter.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was very good in Chicago during 2009-2011 *if* you believe his FIP/xFIP over that timeframe is more representative of his performance than ERA. But over that 3 year stretch he pretty dramatically underperformed his advanced metrics, and he never had a sub-4 ERA despite a ~3.6 xFIP. Now, 3 years later and removed from surgery, I would have very low expectations that he is actually a fantasy-relevant starter.

Pitching in the Cell is the reason I used fWAR. Going from Chicago to Atlanta should decrease his ERA significantly, and a return to pitching at the level he pitched at from 09-11 would translate to some rosterable stats down in Atlanta.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014. I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014. I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

Agree if their situation hasn't changed. Leaving the AL for the NL East and going to his first pitcher's park, he's one of the toughest guys to project.

I think he could rly surprise. Again, no way I'm starting him tomorrow just watching and hoping he keeps the job

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's unrealistic to expect him to return to his preTJ form in 2014. I generally project guys at about 75% - 80% of their pre injury form the first year back.

Agree if their situation hasn't changed. Leaving the AL for the NL East and going to his first pitcher's park, he's one of the toughest guys to project.

I think he could rly surprise. Again, no way I'm starting him tomorrow just watching and hoping he keeps the job

I would agree. He could be very sneaky. From one of the most hitter friendly parks, where he was pretty good for a number of years. Though not fantastic like someone said earlier. To ATL in the NL, that could mean more k's and decrease in HR that would lead to decrease in era and whip. Intriguing, but would have to wait and see his form.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While we're waiting for tonight's start, stumbled upon this discussion of his contract.

It is incentive-laden with games started bonuses. The escalators only really begin at 21-28 games started (he gets a bonus for every start in that range) so for now if he pitches well it's not an issue. But I hate these games played bonuses, so much sketchier than performance bonuses. Realistically, the Braves have financial incentive to limit his starts under 21 games played. I'm sure if he's pitching well it is absolutely not a problem and they would love to pay him but it is something to monitor.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/4/16/5620254/gavin-floyd-and-the-conflict-with-his-incentives

This is an article discussing what to expect.

http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/5/6/5688068/what-to-expect-from-gavin-floyd

I wonder what his pitch count is tonight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent news:

David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves Fredi G said he looked forward to Floyd pitching again in five or six days, and left it at that. Wouldn't say anything more on plans

Was pretty obvious after how good he looked but still nice to have quick confirmation. My guess is a temporary 6-man rotation. These things sort themselves out and I'm sure the Braves are stoked. If both Harang and Floyd keep pitching well the Braves won't complain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Excellent news:

David O'Brien @ajcbraves

#Braves Fredi G said he looked forward to Floyd pitching again in five or six days, and left it at that. Wouldn't say anything more on plans

Was pretty obvious after how good he looked but still nice to have quick confirmation. My guess is a temporary 6-man rotation. These things sort themselves out and I'm sure the Braves are stoked. If both Harang and Floyd keep pitching well the Braves won't complain.

That'd be interesting. Would certainly slightly diminish the fantasy value of the other Braves starters. For some reason, I just have a feeling that this is going to end with Wood getting moved back to the pen. I don't know why but that seems like it would just be a very Fredi Gonzalez thing to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People who've been around know of my love for Floyd from his 2009-11 years.

He'll never be an ace because his 4-seam FB is straight and hittable. But his curve slider and change were plus pitches when he was healthy. His other big issue from those years was a lack of mental toughness - he would cruise for 3-4 innings but crumble when adversity struck. And of course, playing in one of the HR-friendliest parks was a huge cap to his already limited to SP3-ceiling. His xFIP hinted that if he ever moved to the NL he would be a sneaky SP3 value at WW/endgame prices. By 2012 velo declines and loss of command hinted at the eventual TJS he needed at the start of last year.

Now that he's back from TJS, where does his future lie?

The positives:

1. He has his velo & movement back - hit 93 consistently and a couple of 94-95 readings. The slider and change were again his best pitches. He also mixed the 2-seam to get his GB's.

2. Pitching in not just a good home park, but gets to face the NL East (which surging Marlins aside, with an injury-riddled Nats O, is a huge upgrade opposition-wise).

3. His rotation spot looks very secure by the depth chart analysis and most importantly by Fredi Gonzalez himself.

4. Because he is 30, no IP limits are usually in place (that's reserved for younger pitchers as the norm). Old enough to be past issues of IP limits, young enough to still have his physical tools.

The cautions:

1. His 4-seamer is still his worst pitch. I doubt I throw him @ CIN/ARI/COL (duh on COL). Never will be a huge ace with that even with huge NL advantage.

2. He won't have complete skills recovery until next year - his fine control is the last thing that takes 15-18 months to come back (velo is back at 12 months but regaining the fine control is the X factor).

Still, one look at his stuff, the league switch and the home park advantage, for a WW claim getting a potential top 40-ish SP (K's won't push him any higher IMO) for the ROS, at the ultra-low cost, well, easy buy & hold right now. Can't wait to see his next start.

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks RotoRaysfan. Was going to ask how he looked last night since I missed his start. I only saw his highlights and his fastball didn't look very good, but his breaking stuff was working.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spaghetti, his FB has never been any good even when in top form. His breaking pitches were his + pitches.

I really like him, considering change of league, team, and park wise. But the rotation situation could hamper any type of value he may still have, don't you guys think?

I was ready to add him, but 6 man rotation if thats what they're looking at, kills value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His contract incentives don't help his cause either I think. He would really have to impress and Harang or any of the other SP, loose their spot for him to pitch a good amount of games to be relevant fantasy wise. Thats the bad part, cause i really think he could be a good SP5 in just about any league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His contract incentives don't help his cause either I think. He would really have to impress and Harang or any of the other SP, loose their spot for him to pitch a good amount of games to be relevant fantasy wise. Thats the bad part, cause i really think he could be a good SP5 in just about any league.

As the Braves see themselves as a contender, they will gladly pay out 4.5M more if he ends up hitting all of his incentives - because he'd be awesome to meet the bonuses. It's not the same situation as a rebuilder. Harang has been a great story but the clock looks to be nearing midnight on him. For 2015 who knows what the outlook will be for Floyd as he is a FA but really the cards have aligned themselves with both Beachy and Medlen out for the year for 1-year WW success.

Floyd is no sure thing - but the door here to take a regular spot on a contender facing weak lineups in a pitcher friendly park is wide open.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ya exactly - I don't think the Braves would mind paying him at all because to meet the incentives that means he pitched well (and stayed healthy). I think they will gladly pay him if he pitches well. Sure if he bombs hard for the following 2 months they have very good reason not to pay the incentives but in that case none of us would be rostering him anyway.

If he was on a team like the Cubs it would be a far bigger concern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@KevinMcAlpin: Fredi again stated that he doesnt want to go with a six man rotation, but that he also doesnt want to send Floyd to the pen. #Braves

Six man rotation not happening. Fredi also said Floyd will not come out of pen, citing that he is coming off tj.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites