Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

deuce4off

My Top 25 Fantasy Prospects

Recommended Posts

These are my rankings for the top 25 fantasy prospects in baseball. I didn't really do any in-depth statistical analysis for my rankings or my ceilings/floors. Really basing the numbers off current and past production. I thought it would be fun to include projections, so don't nitpick the numbers. Also in regards to each ceiling and floor, those are numbers I could see them putting up in their prime years.

The risk I've associated with each player is weighted on projectibility, age, and the likelihood they'll reach their peak.

I apologize to the moderators if this is something that isn't allowed in this forum. I got bored the other night and figured I'd compile a list of who I felt were the top 25 fantasy prospects in baseball. I understand if you delete this thread, or move it somewhere else. I'm assuming we are all active in this forum because we love to follow prospects, so I figured I'd share my rankings.

Lastly, feel free to comment...be nice though, don't bash me too hard. I don't mind debating on who should be higher or lower.

1. Byron Buxton OF-MIN

ceiling: .330 25hr 85rbi 110r 45sb

floor: .275 15hr 65rbi 90r 35sb

risk: low

2. Kris Bryant 3B-CHC

ceiling: .290 45hr 115rbi 100r 5sb

floor: .240 30hr 90rbi 80r 2sb

risk: medium

3. Carlos Correa SS-HOU

ceiling: .315 25hr 100rbi 100r 15sb

floor: .285 15hr 80rbi 80r 10sb

risk: medium

4. Gregory Polanco OF-PIT

ceiling: .320 25hr 100rbi 100r 25sb

floor: .280 15hr 80rbi 80r 20sb

risk: low

5. Joey Gallo 1B-TEX

ceiling: .290 50hr 115rbi 100r 0sb

floor: .230 30hr 90rbi 80r 0sb

risk: high

6. Joc Pederson OF-LAD

ceiling: .300 30hr 100rbi 100r 30sb

floor: .250 15hr 75rbi 90r 20sb

risk: medium

7. Oscar Tavares OF-STL

ceiling: .320 30hr 110rbi 100r 10sb

floor: .290 20hr 90rbi 90r 5sb

risk: low

8. Dylan Bundy P-BAL

ceiling: 2.50era 1.00whip 240k

floor: 3.40era 1.15whip 190k

risk: high

9. Miguel Sano 3B-MIN

ceiling: .280 40hr 110rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .230 30hr 85rbi 75r 0sb

risk: high

10. Javier Baez SS-CHC

ceiling: .280 35hr 100rbi 100r 10sb

floor: .220 25hr 85rbi 85r 10sb

risk: high

11. Addison Russell SS-OAK

ceiling: .310 25hr 85rbi 100r 15sb

floor: .275 15hr 75rbi 85r 10sb

risk: low

12. Taijuan Walker P-SEA

ceiling: 2.75era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.70 1.25whip 180k

risk: medium

13. Mookie Betts OF-BOS

ceiling: .330 15hr 70rbi 120r 45sb

floor: .280 10hr 60rbi 90r 35sb

risk: low

14. Archie Bradley P-ARZ

ceiling: 2.60era 1.15whip 190k

floor: 3.50era 1.25whip 175k

risk: medium

15. Jonathan Singleton 1B-HOU

ceiling: .280 40hr 110rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .230 25hr 90rbi 75r 0sb

risk: medium

16. Hunter Harvey P-BAL

ceiling: 2.60era 1.00whip 210k

floor: 3.80era 1.25whip 190k

risk: high

17. Henry Owens P-BOS

ceiling: 2.80era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 3.70era 1.30whip 180k

risk: medium

18. Lucas Giolito P-WAS

ceiling: 2.60era 1.05whip 220k

floor: 3.80era 1.25whip 185k

risk: medium

19. Ryan McMahon 3B-COL

ceiling: .290 35hr 100rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .250 20hr 80rbi 75r 0sb

risk: high

20. Jonathan Gray P-COL

ceiling: 2.90era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.80era 1.35whip 180k

risk: medium

21. Corey Seager SS-LAD

ceiling: .300 25hr 90rbi 90r 15sb

floor: .260 15hr 80rbi 80r 10sb

risk: medium

22. Julio Urias P-LAD

ceiling: 2.50era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.50era 1.30whip 180k

risk: high

23. Kyle Zimmer P-KC

ceiling: 2.90era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 3.90era 1.30whip 175k

risk: high

24. Andrew Heaney P-MIA

ceiling: 3.00era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 4.00era 1.30whip 170k

risk: medium

25. David Dahl OF-COL

ceiling: .285 20hr 85rbi 100r 25sb

floor: .240 15hr 70rbi 80r 15sb

risk: high

**Notes**

- I'm a little worried about Buxton's wrist injury. Not enough to drop him in my rankings, but it's definitely something to follow in the coming months.

- Gallo wouldn't have even been in my top 25 to start the year, but his numbers so far this year are ridiculous. If he can keep that k-rate down and contact rate up, he should stay in the top 5. Still not 100% sold though...But you can't argue the upside.

- I'm listing Betts as an outfielder because I just don't see Boston keeping him in the infield. Also, he's a little lower in my rankings because of the position switch. If he were to stay in the infield, I'd have him somewhere in that 4-8 range.

- I've got Baez 10th just because of his awful start this year. I probably would have had him either 2nd or 3rd at the beginning of the year. If he turns it around soon, I won't have a problem moving him up higher.

- If I were to do this list a month from now, Carlos Rodon, Brady Aiken, and Tyler Kolek would all be in my top 25. I love the upside of all three, and by this time next year, I'm positive they'll all be top 25 prospects.

- A few guys who I could see moving up in my rankings are Javier Baez, Mookie Betts (if he stays in the infield), and Ryan McMahon. A couple I could see potentially falling are Archie Bradley (arm troubles), Kyle Zimmer, and Julio Urias.

- A few notables I left off are Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, Noah Syndergaard, and Francisco Lindor. Appel and Gausman because I'm not as high on them as others. Syndergaard because he isn't off to the greatest start. And Lindor because I don't think his fantasy impact will be that big. He'll be a better real life player than fantasy player.

- Colorado and the Dodgers each lead the list with 3 prospects.

- I'll probably update this sometime in July

Enjoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gallo and Joc are rated too high IMO. Yes they're off to BLAZING starts, but to put them ahead of Oscar Teveras is crazy IMO. Otherwise I thought you're rankings were quite good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gallo and Joc are rated too high IMO. Yes they're off to BLAZING starts, but to put them ahead of Oscar Teveras is crazy IMO. Otherwise I thought you're rankings were quite good.

I hear ya. I think their upside is higher than Tavares', but they are definitely more risky. I do think Tavares is more likely to reach his peak, but I'm a gambler at heart. Could be 100% wrong though. If I were to play things safe, I'd rank them Tavares/Pederson/Gallo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gallo and Joc are rated too high IMO. Yes they're off to BLAZING starts, but to put them ahead of Oscar Teveras is crazy IMO. Otherwise I thought you're rankings were quite good.

I hear ya. I think their upside is higher than Tavares', but they are definitely more risky. I do think Tavares is more likely to reach his peak, but I'm a gambler at heart. Could be 100% wrong though. If I were to play things safe, I'd rank them Tavares/Pederson/Gallo.

Gallo's minor league numbers are looking like Goldschmidt's on steroids. Yeah, needs to be ahead of Tavares at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

is there anyway we see Byron Buxton or Addison Russell in the big leagues in 2015?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

is there anyway we see Byron Buxton or Addison Russell in the big leagues in 2015?

Tough to say. With Buxton, it really depends on how quickly he gets back from his wrist injury. I'd say no with Buxton. He's looking like a 2016 guy.

Russell is closer, but hasn't played in a month and a half. If he gets back soon and makes it to AAA before the season ends, then I'd say yes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love this. Except Gallo and Pederson, too high.

I think Russell will be up in 2015 just because I doubt Oakland will pay Jed Lowrie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

is there anyway we see Byron Buxton or Addison Russell in the big leagues in 2015?

Tough to say. With Buxton, it really depends on how quickly he gets back from his wrist injury. I'd say no with Buxton. He's looking like a 2016 guy.

Russell is closer, but hasn't played in a month and a half. If he gets back soon and makes it to AAA before the season ends, then I'd say yes.

You don't think Buxton will be up next year? I think he will be as long as he can quit getting hurt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like a good amount of your list. Your ceilings and floors are a little too close though. Singleton might be a little aggressive. Going off of projection, I would put Giolito higher. Seager as well. Jon Gray is a tough one, b/c I think he could dominate on another team but Colorado is so scary. They've ruined many pitcher's careers. Is Gray's stuff good enough to overcome that? Silly enough, I actually think Dahl's ceiling is higher than that...good list though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Awesome job deuceoff, posts like this make rotoworld a fun forum to visit.

Especially digging the dodgers love on the list ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great job, I agree with the poster above about the floor and ceiling. I'd say the ceiling looks like a 'best case, most optimistic peak' and the floor is more like a 'slightly lower than expected projection'. For example there is a fairly decent chance every pitcher on this list has a floor of 'out of baseball/bullpen/useless'

But i think the rankings are very good and, though probably mislabeled, the projections are really cool to see. I would add Oliver's peak projection from fan graphs as reference btw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an owner of both Pederson and Gallo... I fully support your rankings...LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gallo is in Single A. Goldschmidt tore up Double A. And Goldy had better discipline. I can see why the comparisons are made, but until Gallo dominates Double A and puts up good K/BB numbers there, he isn't a top 10 for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good stuff. Only issue I see is that your floors are too high. Some of these guys are bound to crash and burn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good stuff. Only issue I see is that your floors are too high. Some of these guys are bound to crash and burn.

I 100% about the crashing and burning. That really wasn't in my thought process though. I understand a handful of these guys will struggle. The numbers were more for fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances you would do a top 100 list like this

Unlikely...lol. But if you have any questions about how I feel about a prospect, feel free to PM me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I looked up every name in fangraphs and here is what the Oliver computer projection is based on previous minor league to major league data. As you can see, most of the pitchers are destroyed on this system because, well, most of these pitchers are really young and good numbers in A-ball mean nothing more often than not. At least its interesting to compare. These are his projections for the player in 2016 btw, some of them have not yet hit prime yet at that point and some have

1. Byron Buxton OF-MIN

ceiling: .330 25hr 85rbi 110r 45sb

floor: .275 15hr 65rbi 90r 35sb

risk: low

Oliver: .273, 18 hr, 69 rbi, 88 r, 31 sb

2. Kris Bryant 3B-CHC

ceiling: .290 45hr 115rbi 100r 5sb

floor: .240 30hr 90rbi 80r 2sb

risk: medium

Oliver: .264, 33 hr, 101 rbi, 82 r, 6 sb

3. Carlos Correa SS-HOU

ceiling: .315 25hr 100rbi 100r 15sb

floor: .285 15hr 80rbi 80r 10sb

risk: medium

Oliver: .269, 17 hr, 73 rbi, 74 r, 7 sb (improving to .281 20 hr two years after that, just FYI since Correa is SO young)

4. Gregory Polanco OF-PIT

ceiling: .320 25hr 100rbi 100r 25sb

floor: .280 15hr 80rbi 80r 20sb

risk: low

Oliver: .265, 18 hr, 70 rbi, 78 r, 19 sb

5. Joey Gallo 1B-TEX

ceiling: .290 50hr 115rbi 100r 0sb

floor: .230 30hr 90rbi 80r 0sb

risk: high

Oliver: .223, 47 hr, 113 rbi, 85 r, 9 sb

6. Joc Pederson OF-LAD

ceiling: .300 30hr 100rbi 100r 30sb

floor: .250 15hr 75rbi 90r 20sb

risk: medium

Oliver: .240, 27 hr, 81 rbi, 79 r, 16 sb

7. Oscar Tavares OF-STL

ceiling: .320 30hr 110rbi 100r 10sb

floor: .290 20hr 90rbi 90r 5sb

risk: low

Oliver: .294, 21 hr, 86 rbi, 79 r, 10 sb

8. Dylan Bundy P-BAL

ceiling: 2.50era 1.00whip 240k

floor: 3.40era 1.15whip 190k

risk: high

Oliver: 3.60 era, 7.85 k/9, 2.96 bb/9

9. Miguel Sano 3B-MIN

ceiling: .280 40hr 110rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .230 30hr 85rbi 75r 0sb

risk: high

Oliver: .259, 51 hr, 126 rbi, 93 r, 6 sb (also a pretty outlandish projection! wonder what the year off will do to it>)

10. Javier Baez SS-CHC

ceiling: .280 35hr 100rbi 100r 10sb

floor: .220 25hr 85rbi 85r 10sb

risk: high

Oliver: .258 43 hr, 114 rbi, 88 r, 12 sb (not sure why so outlandish or just not updated lately -- shows how easy prospects can fall though!)

11. Addison Russell SS-OAK

ceiling: .310 25hr 85rbi 100r 15sb

floor: .275 15hr 75rbi 85r 10sb

risk: low

Oliver: .254, 16 hr, 68 rbi, 78 r, 17 sb

12. Taijuan Walker P-SEA

ceiling: 2.75era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.70 1.25whip 180k

risk: medium

Oliver: 3.81 era, 7.96 k/9, 3.40 bb/9

13. Mookie Betts OF-BOS

ceiling: .330 15hr 70rbi 120r 45sb

floor: .280 10hr 60rbi 90r 35sb

risk: low

Oliver: .292 17 hr, 72 rbi, 87 r, 31 sb

14. Archie Bradley P-ARZ

ceiling: 2.60era 1.15whip 190k

floor: 3.50era 1.25whip 175k

risk: medium

Oliver: 4.05 era, 7.59 k/9, 4.63 bb/9

15. Jonathan Singleton 1B-HOU

ceiling: .280 40hr 110rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .230 25hr 90rbi 75r 0sb

risk: medium

Oliver: .211, 27 hr, 79 rbi, 69 r, 1 sb

16. Hunter Harvey P-BAL

ceiling: 2.60era 1.00whip 210k

floor: 3.80era 1.25whip 190k

risk: high

Oliver: 5.29 era, 6.52 k/9, 4.07 bb/9

17. Henry Owens P-BOS

ceiling: 2.80era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 3.70era 1.30whip 180k

risk: medium

Oliver: 5.09 era, 8.84 k/9, 4.93 bb/9

18. Lucas Giolito P-WAS

ceiling: 2.60era 1.05whip 220k

floor: 3.80era 1.25whip 185k

risk: medium

Oliver: 5.17 era, 6.03 k/9, 4.74 bb/9

19. Ryan McMahon 3B-COL

ceiling: .290 35hr 100rbi 90r 0sb

floor: .250 20hr 80rbi 75r 0sb

risk: high

Oliver: .254, 23hr, 81rbi, 75r, 8sb

20. Jonathan Gray P-COL

ceiling: 2.90era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.80era 1.35whip 180k

risk: medium

Oliver: 4.75 era, 6.65 k/9, 3.45 bb/9

21. Corey Seager SS-LAD

ceiling: .300 25hr 90rbi 90r 15sb

floor: .260 15hr 80rbi 80r 10sb

risk: medium

Oliver: .240, 25 hr, 81rbi, 72r, 7sb

22. Julio Urias P-LAD

ceiling: 2.50era 1.10whip 200k

floor: 3.50era 1.30whip 180k

risk: high

Oliver: 6.37 era, 7.96 k/9, 4.18 bb/9

23. Kyle Zimmer P-KC

ceiling: 2.90era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 3.90era 1.30whip 175k

risk: high

Oliver: 4.76 era, 7.47 k/9, 3.04 bb/9

24. Andrew Heaney P-MIA

ceiling: 3.00era 1.15whip 200k

floor: 4.00era 1.30whip 170k

risk: medium

Oliver: 3.93 era, 7.07 k/9, 2.98 bb/9

25. David Dahl OF-COL

ceiling: .285 20hr 85rbi 100r 25sb

floor: .240 15hr 70rbi 80r 15sb

risk: high

Oliver: .299 16hr 75rbi 83r 17sb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen Oliver projections plenty of times and basically he always low balls people in the average department.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen Oliver projections plenty of times and basically he always low balls people in the average department.

I have to say that for the most part, I think his average predictions for those prospects listed are pretty fair. Many of them have very serious strikeout rate concerns. Several of the ones that don't (Taveras, Betts, Dahl) are projected in the .290s which seems fair. Thats like the middle of the road projection: they could be a little better and be .300 hitters (which btw are exceedingly rare these days), or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Gallo projection is awesome. Prime Adam Dunn V 2.0.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Gallo projection is awesome. Prime Adam Dunn V 2.0.

The thing with some of the big home-run guys' projections are this: he also is projected to strike out 42% of the time, which means he essentially would not even be given the opportunity to hit those 47 home runs. Singleton was 36%, Sano 34%, Baez was 32% (and thats before this year so that is heading north!), Bryant 31%. They are all going to have to sort that out.

For reference Oliver had George Springer at 39% with a .223 average. Well here we are and he is so far is hitting .238 with a 34% k-rate making him kinda unownable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great list and great idea for the thread. While I agree with others that the floor's might be a little high, it wouldn't be much fun for every player's floor to be selling cars or flipping burgers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.