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Savatage79

2nd pick in a 10 man .5 ppr league, 6 pt QB TDs... Do i go against the grain for Manning?

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the consistency of manning like you said you know for sure 30/40 points every week

not to mention look at al the rb that were bust last year all it takes is one helmet to the knee and shadys dinged up for 3 or more weeks

ap even got dinged up (cj2k out produced ap)

i just would not invest in any rb with these league setting if i can get manning

im not taking a rb in the 1st unless its shady ap charles in stantard settings

quanity over quality for rb for me

and i also see no reason manning can't come close to his numbers last year clady back another year with a growing te in thomas and DT is a top 3 wr welker is healthy hopefully he can stay on the field more than last year

the only knock i can possibly think of is that denver plays the nfc west which is tough

Its gonna be such a hard decision. The thing is, nobody can say that they get excited to play against Manning, know what I mean? He's simply a juggernaut on any team, even if your RBs arent runnin full steam, Manning I think will and can make up for it.

And I got this weird feeling that shady or AP will get hurt this year, just got this weird hunch.

I just sort of am tempted to lock Manning up to not have to face him, and for the fun...nobody can deny the fun that Manning is when he's just chalking up points.

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Anyone else able to chip in? So im looking at my league from last year and the dude who won had Manning, Sjax, Ellington, Mendenhall, Garcon, Hilton, Baldwin, James Jones, Wallace....as the important names, and manning ended with 587 points in my league. That score though was inflated due to a bonus we get on TDs 40 yards out. But the gist is that his team wasn't really that amazingly stacked, throughout the season even the best teams can simply lose, right? My team was pretty solid as well, and I lost a fluky game in the playoffs. So this is sort of my argument for Manning is that I feel that there is RB/WR gold in later rounds to be had, we all know this. If Manning even comes close to 500 points again in some leagues, that's almost like having 1 and a half top tier RBs.

So I dunno, I always stick to the general consensus. Ive a few leagues so I might experiment and just see. Just would love to see others who would favor it possibly and their reasoning.

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anyone who took sjax in the 2nd /3rd lost basically given the few league where moreno was added

and i sire hope you could draft a better team than that guy damnnnnn thats a bunch of scrubs

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Dude, the drop off from Manning to Brees is big, but the drop off from the top 4 RBs and everyone else is way bigger. You get the elite RB if youre in the top 4. Thats the way to do it. Manning wont duplicate last season. Even if he does, the points youll be losing having 2 RB2 instead of an RB1 will counteract your gains.

Little help

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=448708

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I don't think there's a right or wrong way to draft in this scenario. Most everyone thinks that there is, but that's based on personal preference more than anything.

If you have Manning then you likely have at worst a 5 or 6 point advantage over the guys that are picking Ryan/Romo/Foles/RG3/Kaep/etc. It's possibly more than that though, as I'm going worst case scenario here. Sure anyone can say the difference between Charles and a lower ranked RB is more, and it very well may be, however that's not taking in to account the risk that RB position is (the bust factor/injury factor of all rbs). That elite RB has a better chance of injury than Manning does. Every year around 40-50 percent of the top 10 preseason ranked rbs do not repeat top 10 status that season.

On any given week Manning can drop 30-40 points on you (in 6 pt TD leagues). If that happens to you, you'd better hope that bargain QB can at least put up over his avg points (if his avg was 21ppg, you need more than that that week) or else you're already behind. When a QB can put up those points, that's hard to make up, unless you just have a beast squad/your bargain QB over produces that week or that team with Manning just drafted a bunch of scrubs elsewhere. No one can sit here and say "Man I'm happy I'm going up against Manning this week" because you know he has the chance of dropping 30-40 points on you. Either way It's all subjective to how anyone chooses to look at it, because there are stats that can back up both sides.

I'm personally deciding now between McCoy and Manning, I was on the McCoy bandwagon completely, however I struggle finding consistency at the QB position, and I usually can find RBs easier (Stacy 2013, Ridley 2012, F.Jax 2011, Foster 2010) so I'm considering Manning a bit more now, not sure just yet.

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I don't think there's a right or wrong way to draft in this scenario. Most everyone thinks that there is, but that's based on personal preference more than anything.

If you have Manning then you likely have at worst a 5 or 6 point advantage over the guys that are picking Ryan/Romo/Foles/RG3/Kaep/etc. It's possibly more than that though, as I'm going worst case scenario here. Sure anyone can say the difference between Charles and a lower ranked RB is more, and it very well may be, however that's not taking in to account the risk that RB position is (the bust factor/injury factor of all rbs). That elite RB has a better chance of injury than Manning does. Every year around 40-50 percent of the top 10 preseason ranked rbs do not repeat top 10 status that season.

On any given week Manning can drop 30-40 points on you (in 6 pt TD leagues). If that happens to you, you'd better hope that bargain QB can at least put up over his avg points (if his avg was 21ppg, you need more than that that week) or else you're already behind. When a QB can put up those points, that's hard to make up, unless you just have a beast squad/your bargain QB over produces that week or that team with Manning just drafted a bunch of scrubs elsewhere. No one can sit here and say "Man I'm happy I'm going up against Manning this week" because you know he has the chance of dropping 30-40 points on you. Either way It's all subjective to how anyone chooses to look at it, because there are stats that can back up both sides.

I'm personally deciding now between McCoy and Manning, I was on the McCoy bandwagon completely, however I struggle finding consistency at the QB position, and I usually can find RBs easier (Stacy 2013, Ridley 2012, F.Jax 2011, Foster 2010) so I'm considering Manning a bit more now, not sure just yet.

Great post, Im the same with finding those WW pickups. I enjoyed Stacey last year, I enjoyed Murray when he emerged etc...

See we have bonus points for TDs over certain yardage, I can't remember the two but its like 40 yd TDs are 3 point extra for QB, WR and RB. That stat is where I feel Manning shines big time.

I'm torn on it as well man, like ive said in the thread... I know RB is the way most prefer to go, and I will be doing it in most leagues, this here is where I'm thinking of bending the rules a bit and grabbing Manning.

People talk how deep RB is this season, that's why I feel I could get some RB gold mid rounds that may be RB1 when its all said and done.

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The Broncos schedule is much different this year than last. Peyton will still be the #1 QB and point scorer overall but will not be worth a 2nd overall pick, even in 6 pt pass td leagues.

I live in Colorado and all 5-6 of my fantasy drafts saw PFM going first round. Not one of those teams won the championship.

*EDIT*

Most of these were auction leagues so I should say "1st round value" ($50-$60).

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Just did a mock in yahoo to try this out, drafted pick 1 overall and got this squad (10 teams).

QB: Manning (1)

RB: Murray (2), R.Jennings (6), Vereen (7), J.Bell (8), T.West (11)

WR: Nelson (3), Cruz (4), Garcon (5), M. Wallace (9), G.Tate (10), D.Hopkins(12)

TE: M.Bennett (13)

DEF: Denver (14)

K: Bailey (15)

Some of these guys slipped a little, and a few guys went on auto pick around round 11 or so, so I'll take that in to consideration to some extent.

Now with that said, this is based on a yahoo draft, with yahoo pre-draft rankings. Please do not come quote Fantasy Football Calculator ADP on here, as those rankings are different, thus produce different outcomes. We all know pre-draft rankings do influence draft results to an extent.

I actually think the team is pretty solid for taking a QB #1 overall. That's just my opinion, and it's possible it doesn't pan out that way, but what if it does, or something similar.

Got the advantage at QB, should be in the top 5 of teams at WR, RB is okay as long as Murray doesn't get hurt (so that might be a question mark), TE is weaker than most.

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The Broncos schedule is much different this year than last. Peyton will still be the #1 QB and point scorer overall but will not be worth a 2nd overall pick, even in 6 pt pass td leagues.

I live in Colorado and all 5-6 of my fantasy drafts saw PFM going first round. Not one of those teams won the championship.

*EDIT*

Most of these were auction leagues so I should say "1st round value" ($50-$60).

I mean, you can say that about taking AP first overall last year.

In the 4 leagues I played in last year, he was 1st off the board every time, only 1 team won the championship. Maybe I'd go with, how many made the playoffs, because winning a championship isn't just based on who you have on your team, match ups and some luck goes in to that as well.

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Just did a mock in yahoo to try this out, drafted pick 1 overall and got this squad (10 teams).

QB: Manning (1)

RB: Murray (2), R.Jennings (6), Vereen (7), J.Bell (8), T.West (11)

WR: Nelson (3), Cruz (4), Garcon (5), M. Wallace (9), G.Tate (10), D.Hopkins(12)

TE: M.Bennett (13)

DEF: Denver (14)

K: Bailey (15)

Some of these guys slipped a little, and a few guys went on auto pick around round 11 or so, so I'll take that in to consideration to some extent.

Now with that said, this is based on a yahoo draft, with yahoo pre-draft rankings. Please do not come quote Fantasy Football Calculator ADP on here, as those rankings are different, thus produce different outcomes. We all know pre-draft rankings do influence draft results to an extent.

I actually think the team is pretty solid for taking a QB #1 overall. That's just my opinion, and it's possible it doesn't pan out that way, but what if it does, or something similar.

Got the advantage at QB, should be in the top 5 of teams at WR, RB is okay as long as Murray doesn't get hurt (so that might be a question mark), TE is weaker than most.

Yea see, that isnt too too shabby to me. However, id of probably grabbed a TE at 4. Who was still around for your 4th pick? I like Cruz a lot, but sometimes im a fan of trying to have all 4 positions pretty solid. I think WRs are one of the easier spots to fill with WW gold, theres always a few breakout players that become that staple. But yea thats the kind of team i feel is doable taking Manning first in a 10 man, and while maybe some might not love that team...it would do some damage if guys like Murrary can really get going.

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Just did a mock in yahoo to try this out, drafted pick 1 overall and got this squad (10 teams).

QB: Manning (1)

RB: Murray (2), R.Jennings (6), Vereen (7), J.Bell (8), T.West (11)

WR: Nelson (3), Cruz (4), Garcon (5), M. Wallace (9), G.Tate (10), D.Hopkins(12)

TE: M.Bennett (13)

DEF: Denver (14)

K: Bailey (15)

Some of these guys slipped a little, and a few guys went on auto pick around round 11 or so, so I'll take that in to consideration to some extent.

Now with that said, this is based on a yahoo draft, with yahoo pre-draft rankings. Please do not come quote Fantasy Football Calculator ADP on here, as those rankings are different, thus produce different outcomes. We all know pre-draft rankings do influence draft results to an extent.

I actually think the team is pretty solid for taking a QB #1 overall. That's just my opinion, and it's possible it doesn't pan out that way, but what if it does, or something similar.

Got the advantage at QB, should be in the top 5 of teams at WR, RB is okay as long as Murray doesn't get hurt (so that might be a question mark), TE is weaker than most.

Yea see, that isnt too too shabby to me. However, id of probably grabbed a TE at 4. Who was still around for your 4th pick? I like Cruz a lot, but sometimes im a fan of trying to have all 4 positions pretty solid. I think WRs are one of the easier spots to fill with WW gold, theres always a few breakout players that become that staple. But yea thats the kind of team i feel is doable taking Manning first in a 10 man, and while maybe some might not love that team...it would do some damage if guys like Murrary can really get going.

Yeah, I went back and looked at the results overall and Gronk was there in the 4th round for me to pick, not sure how I missed that. V.Davis was also there, but I wouldn't take him that early. I could have gone Witten in round 6 or 7 instead of the 2 RBs but I felt I needed to get rbs at that point, so I just let the TE spot go.

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Cool, yea I'd of probably grabbed gronk just hoping he returns to glory. Having Manning, Murray, Nelson, Garcon, Gronk is a pretty solid foundation. I'd would happily roll with that and work the WW to find those off the radar players.

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Everyone is talking about Manning like he's going to come close to another great season. He has a much heavier schedule this time around, and lost a redzone threat (don't consider Sanders one).

If I recall correctly, the year after breaking the TD record, historical QBs regressed by at least 20% the next year. Right off the bat, that's 10 TDs (60 points) gone.

Then you factor in age (that much weaker of an arm to compensate for), and the fact that they got off light with offensive injuries last year and you can't talk me into taking Peyton over my top 4 RB (in no order, ADP, Charles, McCoy, and Forte).

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Everyone is talking about Manning like he's going to come close to another great season. He has a much heavier schedule this time around, and lost a redzone threat (don't consider Sanders one).

If I recall correctly, the year after breaking the TD record, historical QBs regressed by at least 20% the next year. Right off the bat, that's 10 TDs (60 points) gone.

Then you factor in age (that much weaker of an arm to compensate for), and the fact that they got off light with offensive injuries last year and you can't talk me into taking Peyton over my top 4 RB (in no order, ADP, Charles, McCoy, and Forte).

Well, people said coming into last year his age, neck surgery etc...all was a possible deal breaker and the dude lit it up.

He doesn't need an identical season to still be amazing.

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Everyone is talking about Manning like he's going to come close to another great season. He has a much heavier schedule this time around, and lost a redzone threat (don't consider Sanders one).

If I recall correctly, the year after breaking the TD record, historical QBs regressed by at least 20% the next year. Right off the bat, that's 10 TDs (60 points) gone.

Then you factor in age (that much weaker of an arm to compensate for), and the fact that they got off light with offensive injuries last year and you can't talk me into taking Peyton over my top 4 RB (in no order, ADP, Charles, McCoy, and Forte).

Well, people said coming into last year his age, neck surgery etc...all was a possible deal breaker and the dude lit it up.

He doesn't need an identical season to still be amazing.

not to mention julius thomas has playedfootball for all of what like 3/4 years now

and they just drafted a physical freak in latimir and welker is coming back i see no shortage of weapons in denver decker was a solid #2 but he will not have a huge impact at all

throw in sanders ball and hillman getting some reps this year

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Yea he definitely has the weapons, not worried about that really. Just worried if im going to struggle too much, but I keep telling myself that Manning is imho fairly matchup proof, they throw a ton, he will make up for some struggles at RB. But I know what comes with having a McCoy, Charles etc...I been there millions of times and had great success. But ive also had success with top end QBs as well, so man...gonna be thinking about it for awhile here.

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For those that continue to harp on Manning not repeating last year, which he likely won't to a certain extent, am I just supposed to believe the top Rbs put up the same seasons as well?

All (Charles, McCoy, Forte) had career years so they'll likely regress some as well.

It's not about Manning being as good as last year, it's about the consistency and safety that he brings. Also this is a week to week game, so his weekly point potential is much greater.

With that said I want to pick McCoy but I'd also like to be on the side that has the elite qb for once. Preseason should clear it up.

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For those that continue to harp on Manning not repeating last year, which he likely won't to a certain extent, am I just supposed to believe the top Rbs put up the same seasons as well?

All (Charles, McCoy, Forte) had career years so they'll likely regress some as well.

It's not about Manning being as good as last year, it's about the consistency and safety that he brings. Also this is a week to week game, so his weekly point potential is much greater.

With that said I want to pick McCoy but I'd also like to be on the side that has the elite qb for once. Preseason should clear it up.

Whats amazing to me tho dude is honestly you're the first that I've seen on here that has adopted the same view, this place, while I do enjoy it, has this thing where its like there is "no" other path outside of RB first pick. Its almost sometimes a killjoy because youd like to see people pulling for both sides at times more often.

I wish more guys were saying, "yea man, Manning is that exception to the rule for early QB pickups". It would make the choice a little clearer.

But as I've said a few times I get the value of top tier RBs, and the importance of having one, I just think Manning is out to still prove something and that offense was obscene last year, I sort of want to make sure I don't have to play that monster.

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Hey I just wanted to throw out a little info for you. It may help, it might not.

I also play in a similar league as you do with the bonus pts for TD length, also for going over 300+ yards.

In my league the top 5 QBs for 15 games were Manning(569), Brees (495), Dalton(381), Rivers(379), Stafford(371).

Top 5 RB Charles(325), Shady(306) Forte(283), Lynch(245), Moreno(241)

Top 5 WR Gordon(264), Calvin (250), Demaryius(249), A.J. Green(238), A. Brown(221)

What does this mean? Peyton Averaged 37.93 Pts a game... the next closest QB was Brees at 33 pts a game. Then it drops even further to Dalton at 25.4 pts a game, etc...

Let's do RBs.

Charles- 21.67/game, Shady-20.4, Forte-18.87, Lynch-16.33, Moreno-16.07, etc

You can do the same for WR.

Now I am not showing this for you to chase last years numbers. Just an idea of what Peyton did in comparision... he averaged almost 5 pts a game more than the next closest QB, and over 12 pts a game to the 3rd ranked QB! There will be regression, sure. But lets say he drops 80 pts from last year. Shoot, let's make it 100 pts. That puts him on par with what Brees scored this past year, and he was the 2nd ranked QB. You don't find that disparity in any other position, even from Jimmy Graham.

Let's take it a step further... we all want to know how consistant a QB is. Peyton was the "STUD" (top 3 scorer at position) 8 times last year, the next closest was Brees and Nick Foles.... at 4 games. This is taking into account of playing championship in week 16.

So, with me just throwing out some raw facts to you here quick, it not only makes sense as to why to take Peyton Manning at your #2 spot. It is actually encouraging to take him there. You can certainly fill in your team in the following round to make up for the points you may be missing out from your RB position. I hope this helps a bit.

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Unbreakable, thanks that is definitely good info. That's the thing, I really feel QBs can win weeks for people at times...that's why im really debating it. The thing is, if Manning comes out week 1 an throws 5 TDs, those who drafted him will be river dancing to work the next day.

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Yea, you got that right. Especially since he is playing the Colts the first week of the season. At home. On Sunday Night Football.... oh God prepare the stat sheets for overload.

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I'd just love to find someone who's drafted already and took Manning first.

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For those that continue to harp on Manning not repeating last year, which he likely won't to a certain extent, am I just supposed to believe the top Rbs put up the same seasons as well?

All (Charles, McCoy, Forte) had career years so they'll likely regress some as well.

It's not about Manning being as good as last year, it's about the consistency and safety that he brings. Also this is a week to week game, so his weekly point potential is much greater.

With that said I want to pick McCoy but I'd also like to be on the side that has the elite qb for once. Preseason should clear it up.

Whats amazing to me tho dude is honestly you're the first that I've seen on here that has adopted the same view, this place, while I do enjoy it, has this thing where its like there is "no" other path outside of RB first pick. Its almost sometimes a killjoy because youd like to see people pulling for both sides at times more often.

I wish more guys were saying, "yea man, Manning is that exception to the rule for early QB pickups". It would make the choice a little clearer.

But as I've said a few times I get the value of top tier RBs, and the importance of having one, I just think Manning is out to still prove something and that offense was obscene last year, I sort of want to make sure I don't have to play that monster.

Yeah I know, there's a vast majority that thinks it's got to be RB no matter what, there's no other option. I see the value of the RB and I agree that the top guys should go early but I also see the value of having that elite QB. Despite the fact that you can find a good qb in a ten team league if you wait, you generally can't find a guy that's putting up 27-30+ points on an average week that late. I know guys come out of the blue like Dalton and Rivers last year (finished 3rd and 4th) so that looks good on paper, however they still were only averaging 22 ppg, 10 ppg less than Manning.

The RB position, can be found all over the draft, or even the waiver wire. Of course, it's a hindsight thing, but last year D.Murray was going in the 4th round, he finished top 7. K Moreno was going in the late rounds last year, he finished top 5. Fred Jackson was going in the later rounds last year. he finished 11th. Ryan Mathews was going in the mid rounds (6-8 range) he finished 12th. You get my point by now I think.

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