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Savatage79

2nd pick in a 10 man .5 ppr league, 6 pt QB TDs... Do i go against the grain for Manning?

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Wont be able to get Shady, I think my cousin will take him first as hes the first pick. My options are Charles which like people are saying, has a crap Oline now, or Peterson which I definitely am a fan of. However, I just don't know...I want him, but I want Manning and feel that I am good enough to craft a team that will be just fine if I don't get a top 3 RB.

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Yea I understand what you are going with, I am in a 10 team league with the 8th overall pick. I don't know if I want to target Arian Foster or go WR/WR with my first two rounds. Peyton may be going at the #2 pick in my league depending on keeper status. People are so RB heavy that in almost seems Taboo to do anything else. But to the players that are crafty and get ahead of the game at the other positions may have the right idea.

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The thing that I feel im different with than a lot of players is I also like getting the fun guys. I don't care what anyone says, nobody can say that having a Matt Ryan is anywhere near as fun or exciting as having Manning, Brees or Rodgers to watch every week. I enjoy that part, I love great strategy and ive actually been on a roll the last few years winning some nice money, and I feel pretty confident that grabbing Manning at number 2 would still be a move I can work with throughout a season. And the fun, to see Manning doing what he does...who cant say that doesn't add insane fun when your QB is doing that weekly?

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And here's a funny QB story, 2 years ago in my one big cash league, a dude drafted eli manning in the first round. We all laughed, snickered, and thought wow is he insane... And the dude won the league. That goes to show how luck, matchups, a single loss once or twice by 3-5 points, all these factors hit a season. That you could have a great team and have weeks where they just don't click, and the guy with the worst team gets that 100 points and beats your beast team since you bombed and only put up 85.

So I think while I believe there is definitely a reason to grab a RB first most of the time, I don't think it has to be automatic.

There has to be more folks other than the 2-3 of us that feel this way.

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And here's a funny QB story, 2 years ago in my one big cash league, a dude drafted eli manning in the first round. We all laughed, snickered, and thought wow is he insane... And the dude won the league. That goes to show how luck, matchups, a single loss once or twice by 3-5 points, all these factors hit a season. That you could have a great team and have weeks where they just don't click, and the guy with the worst team gets that 100 points and beats your beast team since you bombed and only put up 85.

So I think while I believe there is definitely a reason to grab a RB first most of the time, I don't think it has to be automatic.

There has to be more folks other than the 2-3 of us that feel this way.

One guy I played with for a season or two took Tom Brady in the first round and Michael Vick in the 2nd round the year Vick went nuts. Needless to say he won.

The next year he tried the same strategy and crashed and burned.

Just because something can work well a small percentage of the time (or even a decent percentage of the time) does not make it the best strategy.

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And here's a funny QB story, 2 years ago in my one big cash league, a dude drafted eli manning in the first round. We all laughed, snickered, and thought wow is he insane... And the dude won the league. That goes to show how luck, matchups, a single loss once or twice by 3-5 points, all these factors hit a season. That you could have a great team and have weeks where they just don't click, and the guy with the worst team gets that 100 points and beats your beast team since you bombed and only put up 85.

So I think while I believe there is definitely a reason to grab a RB first most of the time, I don't think it has to be automatic.

There has to be more folks other than the 2-3 of us that feel this way.

One guy I played with for a season or two took Tom Brady in the first round and Michael Vick in the 2nd round the year Vick went nuts. Needless to say he won.

The next year he tried the same strategy and crashed and burned.

Just because something can work well a small percentage of the time (or even a decent percentage of the time) does not make it the best strategy.

Well I know this, I'm just saying that in fantasy anything can happen. Like I've said you got guys who take the best RB in the first round and crash and burn. My point was that I think a person could do a lot worse this year than take Peyton in the first round.

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Couple more thoughts?

Does bonus points for over 40 yard TDs justify it any more for others?

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That is how my league is set up. With the bonus points. It really comes down to where you want your main strength at on your roster.

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Oh I have, just so hard to known with mocks, know what I mean?

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Yea these mocks kinda suck in all honesty. I can guarantee that my money league will not be picking the same way that some of these people do on FFC. For instance with my league, with the points settings, 3 QBs went in the first round last year.

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Here's my thing, not everyone gets an elite top 5 RB, those who don't and take Manning first say with pick 8, are their seasons screwed?

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Nope, last year our champion took Peyton Manning. The one guy who took Drew Brees was in the playoffs (4 teams in playoffs). The guy who took Rodgers.... well that was just unfortunate, but he was 1 game away from making playoffs. The guy who had Brees.... he actually would have got smoked if it was not for Brees, who single handedly won him games. I remember playing him early in the season and Brees and Welker torched me.

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Yep, that's the thing.. Sometimes its simply one or two or three players that are you're beasts.

I guess I just don't get the way some act like there truly is no other way.

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Yea I get where you are coming from. I actually play with a couple people that are so predictable, to the point that I can guess exact positions that this one guy is going for. It is kinda funny.

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hate to quote anything brad evans says but this might help

"Last year, 60.8 percent of Yahoo champs had Peyton on roster. The highest RB, Jamaal Charles, was on 34.8 percent of trophy-hoisting teams. Incontestably, No. 18 was a difference-maker." this is standard scoring i am assuming

http://sports.yahoo....-215718905.html

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Hey I just wanted to throw out a little info for you. It may help, it might not.

I also play in a similar league as you do with the bonus pts for TD length, also for going over 300+ yards.

In my league the top 5 QBs for 15 games were Manning(569), Brees (495), Dalton(381), Rivers(379), Stafford(371).

Top 5 RB Charles(325), Shady(306) Forte(283), Lynch(245), Moreno(241)

Top 5 WR Gordon(264), Calvin (250), Demaryius(249), A.J. Green(238), A. Brown(221)

What does this mean? Peyton Averaged 37.93 Pts a game... the next closest QB was Brees at 33 pts a game. Then it drops even further to Dalton at 25.4 pts a game, etc...

Let's do RBs.

Charles- 21.67/game, Shady-20.4, Forte-18.87, Lynch-16.33, Moreno-16.07, etc

You can do the same for WR.

Now I am not showing this for you to chase last years numbers. Just an idea of what Peyton did in comparision... he averaged almost 5 pts a game more than the next closest QB, and over 12 pts a game to the 3rd ranked QB! There will be regression, sure. But lets say he drops 80 pts from last year. Shoot, let's make it 100 pts. That puts him on par with what Brees scored this past year, and he was the 2nd ranked QB. You don't find that disparity in any other position, even from Jimmy Graham.

Let's take it a step further... we all want to know how consistant a QB is. Peyton was the "STUD" (top 3 scorer at position) 8 times last year, the next closest was Brees and Nick Foles.... at 4 games. This is taking into account of playing championship in week 16.

So, with me just throwing out some raw facts to you here quick, it not only makes sense as to why to take Peyton Manning at your #2 spot. It is actually encouraging to take him there. You can certainly fill in your team in the following round to make up for the points you may be missing out from your RB position. I hope this helps a bit.

These stats are quite misleading. You don't take RBs early because RB1 is better than RB5. You take RBs early because all the RBs down to say, RB45 or so are all rostered in a 10-team league and there are no replacements out there on the waiver wire barring the rare Samkon Gado kind of season.

On the other hand, while Manning is better than QB5, after QB10 or so all the QBs are more or less the same and quite a few of them are out there on the waiver wire. It's also misleading to throw out the stat that Manning was on X% of championship teams last year when he was taken in the 3rd round last year and put up a historic season. Now you're talking about drafting him two rounds higher for undoubtedly less production. If you really want to go early QB take a bounce-back candidate like Rodgers in the 3rd.

I'm not saying you can't win by taking Manning, but I'm saying that on average you are probably costing yourself more in total team talent by taking him than you are by not taking him.

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See what I always go back to is previous years, like I was going back the last 5-8 years of fantasy looking at drafts and teams and there were years when guys were taking Rodgers in the top 5, taking Brees etc...and then the guys taking top 5 RBs...and just loose casual observation looking at the league winners and runnerups etc. And I think one would be surprised seeing how many guys were runnerups and guys who won with taking a Rodgers in the first round, or a Brees that early. And then the many guys who took that stud top 5 RB and finished 5th+

Like for instance, the dude in my league took AP last year as the number 1 overall pick. He had that heavy RB team with a cam newt at the helm, came practically in dead last.

Again its all matchups and just having bad luck, but i think all im getting at sometimes is while i understand the appeal and REASON behind a RB1 in the first, i dont think its a guaranteed "oh well your team is awesome" because of it.

Speaking of repeated numbers, look at Megatron he gets drafted in the first year in and year out even after amazing years. Yet nobody is really ever saying he wont repeat.

I mean to turn this around a little, is anyone more for a Megatron pick at number 2?

Im just not sold this year on Charles/AP as much, i think the Oline for KC worries me, and AP while i love i just am not sure. Im just not crazy confident grabbing them for some reason.

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Here is a thought to help you out... trade your pick for someone in the later round hahaha. I don't know if your league allows that or not. But I actually may be doing that in my league because the guy at the #3 spot doesn't know what to pick. So he wants to trade our first 2 rounds (i am at spot #8).

The thing with taking a QB that early, is that you have to make sure you are fairly spot on with the rest of your picks to have a nice balance. You may have to reach a little more than normal since you don't have the luxury of selecing that RB from the start. A positive about taking that QB early, is you don't need to roster a backup, because you will be starting that QB every week except for his bye.

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Hey I just wanted to throw out a little info for you. It may help, it might not.

I also play in a similar league as you do with the bonus pts for TD length, also for going over 300+ yards.

In my league the top 5 QBs for 15 games were Manning(569), Brees (495), Dalton(381), Rivers(379), Stafford(371).

Top 5 RB Charles(325), Shady(306) Forte(283), Lynch(245), Moreno(241)

Top 5 WR Gordon(264), Calvin (250), Demaryius(249), A.J. Green(238), A. Brown(221)

What does this mean? Peyton Averaged 37.93 Pts a game... the next closest QB was Brees at 33 pts a game. Then it drops even further to Dalton at 25.4 pts a game, etc...

Let's do RBs.

Charles- 21.67/game, Shady-20.4, Forte-18.87, Lynch-16.33, Moreno-16.07, etc

You can do the same for WR.

Now I am not showing this for you to chase last years numbers. Just an idea of what Peyton did in comparision... he averaged almost 5 pts a game more than the next closest QB, and over 12 pts a game to the 3rd ranked QB! There will be regression, sure. But lets say he drops 80 pts from last year. Shoot, let's make it 100 pts. That puts him on par with what Brees scored this past year, and he was the 2nd ranked QB. You don't find that disparity in any other position, even from Jimmy Graham.

Let's take it a step further... we all want to know how consistant a QB is. Peyton was the "STUD" (top 3 scorer at position) 8 times last year, the next closest was Brees and Nick Foles.... at 4 games. This is taking into account of playing championship in week 16.

So, with me just throwing out some raw facts to you here quick, it not only makes sense as to why to take Peyton Manning at your #2 spot. It is actually encouraging to take him there. You can certainly fill in your team in the following round to make up for the points you may be missing out from your RB position. I hope this helps a bit.

These stats are quite misleading. You don't take RBs early because RB1 is better than RB5. You take RBs early because all the RBs down to say, RB45 or so are all rostered in a 10-team league and there are no replacements out there on the waiver wire barring the rare Samkon Gado kind of season.

On the other hand, while Manning is better than QB5, after QB10 or so all the QBs are more or less the same and quite a few of them are out there on the waiver wire. It's also misleading to throw out the stat that Manning was on X% of championship teams last year when he was taken in the 3rd round last year and put up a historic season. Now you're talking about drafting him two rounds higher for undoubtedly less production. If you really want to go early QB take a bounce-back candidate like Rodgers in the 3rd.

I'm not saying you can't win by taking Manning, but I'm saying that on average you are probably costing yourself more in total team talent by taking him than you are by not taking him.

mannings went 2nd rd in all my drafts early 2nd 12 team

and thats with standard scoing 6 pt tds i would assum the 60% league champ would increase

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I actually could probably trade picks with someone, id just have to switch with them in the settings.

Hmmmm, what if i were to take 7th?

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Yea, we do a live draft so it is an easy switch for us if that is what we decide. At the 7th that would eliminate some of the guess work for you. Perhaps Peyton is still there, or Calvin or Drew Brees, or perhaps a RB fell. But that quick turn around in the 2nd can allow you to pick another top notch player to compensate.

In my league, I am planning on swapping first 3 rounds with the player in the 3rd spot. Then I plan to turn around and swap my first two rounds with the #6 pick. That in turn would give me 1.06, 2.05, 3.03, 4.03 and it is back to normal afterwards.

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hate to quote anything brad evans says but this might help

"Last year, 60.8 percent of Yahoo champs had Peyton on roster. The highest RB, Jamaal Charles, was on 34.8 percent of trophy-hoisting teams. Incontestably, No. 18 was a difference-maker." this is standard scoring i am assuming

http://sports.yahoo....-215718905.html

Manning's ADP was in the 3-4 round last year. Not really relevent to this discussion.

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Hey I just wanted to throw out a little info for you. It may help, it might not.

I also play in a similar league as you do with the bonus pts for TD length, also for going over 300+ yards.

In my league the top 5 QBs for 15 games were Manning(569), Brees (495), Dalton(381), Rivers(379), Stafford(371).

Top 5 RB Charles(325), Shady(306) Forte(283), Lynch(245), Moreno(241)

Top 5 WR Gordon(264), Calvin (250), Demaryius(249), A.J. Green(238), A. Brown(221)

What does this mean? Peyton Averaged 37.93 Pts a game... the next closest QB was Brees at 33 pts a game. Then it drops even further to Dalton at 25.4 pts a game, etc...

Let's do RBs.

Charles- 21.67/game, Shady-20.4, Forte-18.87, Lynch-16.33, Moreno-16.07, etc

You can do the same for WR.

Now I am not showing this for you to chase last years numbers. Just an idea of what Peyton did in comparision... he averaged almost 5 pts a game more than the next closest QB, and over 12 pts a game to the 3rd ranked QB! There will be regression, sure. But lets say he drops 80 pts from last year. Shoot, let's make it 100 pts. That puts him on par with what Brees scored this past year, and he was the 2nd ranked QB. You don't find that disparity in any other position, even from Jimmy Graham.

Let's take it a step further... we all want to know how consistant a QB is. Peyton was the "STUD" (top 3 scorer at position) 8 times last year, the next closest was Brees and Nick Foles.... at 4 games. This is taking into account of playing championship in week 16.

So, with me just throwing out some raw facts to you here quick, it not only makes sense as to why to take Peyton Manning at your #2 spot. It is actually encouraging to take him there. You can certainly fill in your team in the following round to make up for the points you may be missing out from your RB position. I hope this helps a bit.

These stats are quite misleading. You don't take RBs early because RB1 is better than RB5. You take RBs early because all the RBs down to say, RB45 or so are all rostered in a 10-team league and there are no replacements out there on the waiver wire barring the rare Samkon Gado kind of season.

On the other hand, while Manning is better than QB5, after QB10 or so all the QBs are more or less the same and quite a few of them are out there on the waiver wire. It's also misleading to throw out the stat that Manning was on X% of championship teams last year when he was taken in the 3rd round last year and put up a historic season. Now you're talking about drafting him two rounds higher for undoubtedly less production. If you really want to go early QB take a bounce-back candidate like Rodgers in the 3rd.

I'm not saying you can't win by taking Manning, but I'm saying that on average you are probably costing yourself more in total team talent by taking him than you are by not taking him.

mannings went 2nd rd in all my drafts early 2nd 12 team

and thats with standard scoing 6 pt tds i would assum the 60% league champ would increase

Considering that everyone is projecting Manning to regress from a record-breaking season as QBs historically have, why would you expect the percentage of ownership on championship teams to increase?

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Heres a question, people projected Manning last year to be just ok. Nobody projected what he did, why is what is being projected, even tho last year many got wrong, sort of really being taken as concrete?

So people think he will regress, what if he can throw another 50 TDs? What if he hits 5k yards easily?

I dunno, I just am throwing questions around simply for discussions sake. But I feel that people dismiss elite QBs way to quick. If manning does even 500 points, 80 less inthe lleague, that is still like having close to 2 elite backs.

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