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2ndCitySox

Draft Day Avoid List 2015

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This thread is dedicated to guys that will likely be overvalued on Draft day and that you will be avoiding at their expected ADP.

I'll start it off with one guy who might have one more year of name value left: David Wright. No thanks.

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Cargo, Stanton, Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Todd Fraizer, Melky Cabrera, Alexi Ramirez, Carlos Gomez ( depending on where they rank him i love him but wouldn't take him top 14)........... Not to say any of these guys are bad players their actually great players for the most part but they will be heavily overrated by the morons of ESPN

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Cargo, Stanton, Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Todd Fraizer, Melky Cabrera, Alexi Ramirez, Carlos Gomez ( depending on where they rank him i love him but wouldn't take him top 14)........... Not to say any of these guys are bad players their actually great players for the most part but they will be heavily overrated by the morons of ESPN

Stanton isn't a top 14 player next year? Carlos Gomez is around the top 14 too.

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Cargo, Stanton, Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Todd Fraizer, Melky Cabrera, Alexi Ramirez, Carlos Gomez ( depending on where they rank him i love him but wouldn't take him top 14)........... Not to say any of these guys are bad players their actually great players for the most part but they will be heavily overrated by the morons of ESPN

Stanton isn't a top 14 player next year? Carlos Gomez is around the top 14 too.

I'd draft Stanton and Gomez top 14 next year. Cargo will definitely be an untouchable next year he's done stealing bases this year who knows if that changes next year

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It is too early but I'll contribute:

Danny Salazar - likely still will be rated highly because the experts love strikeouts, but at this point he's basically Ubaldo Jimenez.

Bryce Harper - His draft price will still be top 3 rounds, even if he hits 30 HR and stays healthy, that could come with .260 and batting 6th which will make it very tough for him to live up to that price.

Troy Tulowitzki - injured every year, unless your league has pro injury settings.

Danny Santana - If the season ended today Santana might end up being a top 13 round draft pick but all of his numbers are screaming fluke. Stay away.

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This seems might silly to talk about now. There's 1/3 of the season left. Way too much can/will change to make any of this relevant.

This will be a great discussion in November.

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Stanton is an easy top 5 pick and arguably 3rd.

I'd still go Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt, and Cutch. Owning Kershaw this year is a maybe, but sure is nice just to set and forget him.

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Cargo, Stanton, Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Todd Fraizer, Melky Cabrera, Alexi Ramirez, Carlos Gomez ( depending on where they rank him i love him but wouldn't take him top 14)........... Not to say any of these guys are bad players their actually great players for the most part but they will be heavily overrated by the morons of ESPN

I agree with some here (Brantley, Cruz, Melky). Brantley will be severely overrated imo. He is good but can't expect 20/20 next year. Will likely be in round 5 about when he's a round 10 player. Cruz has never hit HR at this pace, and he most likely cashes in on a big long term contract this year. Maybe a good ballpark will sway my opinion, but he has 7th round value written all over him but will be inside top 5. Besides average Melky wouldn't be considered above average in any category for an OF. Definitely not worth a high pick. Average is too volatile to depend on, and Melky's value solely depends on that.

But for others they are top players and I would expect fair prices on them.

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This seems might silly to talk about now. There's 1/3 of the season left. Way too much can/will change to make any of this relevant.

This will be a great discussion in November.

It depends on the player I think. Guys whose names outweigh their performance

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I don't understand the Cruz avoidance, both this year and going forward (providing he stays in BLT). Last year he had 27 HR in 109 games. This year 29 HR in 102 games. The pace is very close. Last 5 years he has 164 HRS with a 3rd of this season left. Since he stopped running he isn't injured as often.

Are you really saying that an OF that seems like a lock for a .260/80/33/80/3 you are going to consider overrated in the 5th round?

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Longoria, Votto, Blackmon, Mesoraco, Dozier, Byrd will be overvalued too.

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No such thing as a true DND for me, but I can't see myself paying the required value for CarGo, Harper, Bruce, and others. Someone always sees the upside and not the risk.

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What would Stanton be overvalued? This confuses me. I can only think of injury risk but think his risk is the same as everyone else in the MLB. Easy top 10 player. Top 5 based on preference.

Nelson Cruz in 3rd is too high. After the 5th, maybe. Chris Davis likely to come in high too.

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No such thing as a true DND for me, but I can't see myself paying the required value for CarGo, Harper, Bruce, and others. Someone always sees the upside and not the risk.

True DNDs for me have always been guys that simply do not do average (e.g. Dunn, Uggla).

Or guys that have such an unusual stat skillset for their position (e.g power hitting middle infielders that get zero steals) that I have to reconstruct my whole team around them.

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I recall this time last year, Anthony Rizzo was at the top of many poster's DND list.

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Joe Mauer! Why anyone would draft him when he loses C eligibility is beyond me.

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Joe Mauer! Why anyone would draft him when he loses C eligibility is beyond me.

Because it's Joe freaking Mauer! Duh.

Plus, once you draft the no-power, all-batting-average (ideally) first baseman, you get to reconfigure your whole team / draft strategy to account for your lack of power at 1B. Doesn't that sound like fun?

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Joe Mauer! Why anyone would draft him when he loses C eligibility is beyond me.

That's a great one, he can be a true do not draft in standard leagues as a 1B. I'm sure he will be overrated.

Another one is Jered Weaver who has declined in every stat again for the 4th straight year. He will still be picked very high for a guy with a weak strikeout rate

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Disagree on Weaver. If anything, he's undervalued these days. Was dropped in two of my leagues early on in the season. Was traded in one of my leagues for Dexter Fowler earlier this year. I wanted the trade to be vetoed, but the league let it through. Lo and behold, Fowler is sitting on the WW again.

Weaver isn't the ace he was for a stretch of 3 years or so, but he's still a pretty solid fantasy #2 or 3. And the Angels give him run support every year. Plus, he's the type of pitcher who will age well with diminished velocity. The changeup is still a great pitch for him.

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