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Robrain

Shonn Greene 2014 Season Outlook

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Okay, so watching the live updates from the first preseason game, I think I've got this backfield figured out.

People want to point to the SD backfield Whisenhunt fielded last season, with Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, and Danny Woodhead.

However, I'd suggest rewinding a bit further, back to Whisenhunt's final years with the Cardinals.

Shonn Greene = Beanie Wells role

Bishop Sankey = Tim Hightower role

Dexter McCluster = LaRod Stephens-Howling

Shonn Greene weight: 227 lbs

Beanie Wells weight: 229 lbs

Shonn Greene 40 time: 4.62 seconds

Beanie Wells 40 time: 4.62 seconds

I don't think Whisenhunt is lying about Shonn Greene being his starter.

Sankey will likely play passing downs (assuming he's proficient in his pass protection) and change-of-pace back, and McCluster will be used as a gadget player that can be thrown onto the field whenever Whisenhunt wants to get tricky.

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Our entire league (14-team 0.5 PPR) was giving him the stink-eye. He went undrafted and had been languishing in the FA pool since the beginning of this month. I scooped him out of the free agent pool the moment I saw the 13-yd TD text.

I dropped SEA RB Robert Turbin to pick him up (I don't own either Lynch or Christine Michael, so once I settled on the above hypothesis, a free starting RB was a better gamble than a handcuff).

Sure there's a possibility that a strong performance by Sankey could force more of a timeshare, but Sankey didn't have a great YPC tonight.

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Oh god, I can't edit my original post. I need a mod to use their magic and change the topic description to Shonn Greene's new nickname:

SLOW THUNDER

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Courtesy of @FantasyFbPundit on Twitter comes this video of all of Bishop Sankey's touches in last night's Week 1 preseason game:

I think that lends more credence toward his Tim Hightower-like role. Sankey carried the ball 13 times for just 37 rushing yards (2.84615 YPC).

Shonn Greene carried the ball 4 times for 20 yards. His first two carries were back-to-back on the opening drive, and each went for 4 yards. Next drive he got one carry for -1 yards on 2nd-and-12, the play after Locker had fumbled the snap because of the wet football on 1st down. They then punted, and recovered the punt on the Packers' 13-yard line. Shonn Greene got the first play of that "new" drive, and he ran it in from 13 yards out.

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Our entire league (14-team 0.5 PPR) was giving him the stink-eye. He went undrafted and had been languishing in the FA pool since the beginning of this month. I scooped him out of the free agent pool the moment I saw the 13-yd TD text..

I owned him very briefly last week.

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Our entire league (14-team 0.5 PPR) was giving him the stink-eye. He went undrafted and had been languishing in the FA pool since the beginning of this month. I scooped him out of the free agent pool the moment I saw the 13-yd TD text..

I owned him very briefly last week.

Hey, he went undrafted, you're included in that!

And yeah, you did pick him up for about what, 5 minutes? Then dropped him for Lache Seastrunk. I'd been watching him the entire time before and after that, since he was the most obvious name, and no one wanted to touch him because of the stigma. All I needed was to see a defined role for him in the first preseason game, and I was ready to pounce.

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Our entire league (14-team 0.5 PPR) was giving him the stink-eye. He went undrafted and had been languishing in the FA pool since the beginning of this month. I scooped him out of the free agent pool the moment I saw the 13-yd TD text..

I owned him very briefly last week.

And yeah, you did pick him up for about what, 5 minutes? Then dropped him for Lache Seastrunk.

Upside potential.

I'd been watching him the entire time before and after that, since he was the most obvious name, and no one wanted to touch him because of the stigma.

I considered drafting him. It was (and still is) fairly obvious he could start over Stinky due to the issues most rookie RB's have.

When it comes to Shonn Green, it's not just a stigma....I've watched a lot of Shonn Greene...It's the fact that he will be mediocre even if he starts. I'd rather line the bottom of my bench with lottery ticket RB's at this point in the preseason than Greene. That's not to say he won't be useful for you, or someone else as a flex at some point. But he's got a limited skillset and we've seen enough of him to know that probably won't change.

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Our entire league (14-team 0.5 PPR) was giving him the stink-eye. He went undrafted and had been languishing in the FA pool since the beginning of this month. I scooped him out of the free agent pool the moment I saw the 13-yd TD text..

I owned him very briefly last week.

And yeah, you did pick him up for about what, 5 minutes? Then dropped him for Lache Seastrunk.

Upside potential.

I'd been watching him the entire time before and after that, since he was the most obvious name, and no one wanted to touch him because of the stigma.

I considered drafting him. It was (and still is) fairly obvious he could start over Stinky due to the issues most rookie RB's have.

When it comes to Shonn Green, it's not just a stigma....I've watched a lot of Shonn Greene...It's the fact that he will be mediocre even if he starts. I'd rather line the bottom of my bench with lottery ticket RB's at this point in the preseason than Greene. That's not to say he won't be useful for you, or someone else as a flex at some point. But he's got a limited skillset and we've seen enough of him to know that probably won't change.

If he keeps enough of a workload + the goal-line role, it seems like he's a lock at ending up as a Top-25 RB in 2014 (a bit like 2010-2011 Mike Tolbert, from a fantasy production standpoint).

In our league's scoring settings, he was the 17th best RB in 2012.

He was probably also a Top-20 RB in 2011 (our Yahoo! league only shows the 2012 + 2013 seasons for those numbers).

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This guy will always be a bum in my eyes. But I suppose he has his upside. Not a bad late round pick

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Your opinion of him, it should be noted, doesn't change the fact that he twice performed as a Top-20 RB for fantasy. Specifically, the seasons you're referring to. And he didn't even do that well those two seasons.

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he twice performed as a Top-20 RB for fantasy.

End of season stats don't always tell the full story. We really need to look deeper.

54.1

Twice. (Crazy right?)

54.1 of Shonn Greene's points came from 2 weeks.

In 2012 AND in 2011. Exactly 54.1.

Both years, required three(3) TDs in a single game to inflate those year end totals.

In 2012 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 31.94% of his total.

In 2011 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 33.29% of his total.

Shonn Greene is worth owning... but 'finishing as an RB2' and 'being an RB2' are completely different things when setting your lineup on a weekly basis. In his defense, he isn't being drafted anywhere near the RB2 range, but to say that he has 'performed' as a top 20 RB for fantasy is misleading.

It would be more accurate to say, he performed like FA Fodder for 14 weeks, and performed like a top 5 RB 2 weeks.

I don't recommend chasing outliers.

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he twice performed as a Top-20 RB for fantasy.

End of season stats don't always tell the full story. We really need to look deeper.

54.1

Twice. (Crazy right?)

54.1 of Shonn Greene's points came from 2 weeks.

In 2012 AND in 2011. Exactly 54.1.

Both years, required three(3) TDs in a single game to inflate those year end totals.

In 2012 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 31.94% of his total.

In 2011 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 33.29% of his total.

Shonn Greene is worth owning... but 'finishing as an RB2' and 'being an RB2' are completely different things when setting your lineup on a weekly basis. In his defense, he isn't being drafted anywhere near the RB2 range, but to say that he has 'performed' as a top 20 RB for fantasy is misleading.

It would be more accurate to say, he performed like FA Fodder for 14 weeks, and performed like a top 5 RB 2 weeks.

I don't recommend chasing outliers.

This is all accurate, and while I knew he had a few good weeks, I wasn't aware of the specific numbers you cited.

However, I expect more consistent production under a new coaching staff. RB misuse by the Jets has been a cornerstone of their gameplan for the past 4-5 years.

If given a reasonably consistent workload (~250 carries), and goal-line duties, I think

Ryan Mathews got 285 carries last season, and Shonn Greene appeared to have a little pep in his step ("burst") on that 13-yard TD run last night.

Whether Shonn Greene reaches 250 carries will predominantly be decided by how Bishop Sankey performs in the remaining 3 preseason games.

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Also a small sidenote, Shonn Greene has had a fairly light workload to this point in his career:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/shonn-greene-1.html

In college, Shonn Greene only played 3 seasons.

2005 - 037 carries - 0,173 rushing yards - 01 rushing TD

2006 - 032 carries - 0,205 rushing yards - 01 rushing TD - (+3 catches for 32 receiving yards)

2008 - 307 carries - 1,850 rushing yards - 20 rushing TDs - (+8 catches for 49 receiving yards)

He missed what should have been his 3rd season, 2007, because of grades.

His career carries in the NFL:

2009: 108

2010: 185

2011: 253

2012: 276

2013: 077

I don't think he's really in danger of falling off the cliff from a physical standpoint this season. As long as that knee stays right, I think fantasy owners can pencil him in a pretty decent RB depth.

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Light workload thus far

Mediocre Talent

Plodder

Knee issue

Competing against a younger faster RB for touches

Robrain "OHEMGEE MORENO IS GARBAGE!"

Robrain "SHONN GREENE IS AWESOME!"

<_<

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he twice performed as a Top-20 RB for fantasy.

End of season stats don't always tell the full story. We really need to look deeper.

54.1

Twice. (Crazy right?)

54.1 of Shonn Greene's points came from 2 weeks.

In 2012 AND in 2011. Exactly 54.1.

Both years, required three(3) TDs in a single game to inflate those year end totals.

In 2012 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 31.94% of his total.

In 2011 those 54.1 points from 2 individual weeks accounted for 33.29% of his total.

Shonn Greene is worth owning... but 'finishing as an RB2' and 'being an RB2' are completely different things when setting your lineup on a weekly basis. In his defense, he isn't being drafted anywhere near the RB2 range, but to say that he has 'performed' as a top 20 RB for fantasy is misleading.

It would be more accurate to say, he performed like FA Fodder for 14 weeks, and performed like a top 5 RB 2 weeks.

I don't recommend chasing outliers.

RB misuse by the Jets has been a cornerstone of their gameplan for the past 4-5 years.

Jets were #1 in rushing in 2009.

They were #2 in 2010.

They were #22 in 2011, when they gave the reigns to Shonn Greene. The only mismanagement was not getting a real feature back after Thomas Jones and Tomlinson were done.

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Light workload thus far

Mediocre Talent

Plodder

Knee issue

Competing against a younger faster RB for touches

Robrain "OHEMGEE MORENO IS GARBAGE!"

Robrain "SHONN GREENE IS AWESOME!"

<_<

We'll talk when Moreno steps out on the field...oh wait.

Omar Kelly @OmarKelly · 7h

I'm watching Knowshon Moreno warm up with the second team offense. We'll see if he's cleared for 11-on-11 work today.

Omar Kelly @OmarKelly · 6h

I'm watching Knowshon Moreno work during individuals are he's not close to being ready. He's moving slow.

·

Lamar Miller just roasted Jordan Tripp during 1-on-1s, going deep on a pass from Matt Moore. Kid has speed.

Omar Kelly @OmarKelly · 5h

Knowshon Moreno can't create any separation at all. I'd be shocked if he played in the next two games. He's got a lot of work to do.

Meanwhile, Shonn Greene has already played in a preseason game, and had scored a TD.

Two totally different scenarios.

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It's too bad we don't have any precedence of Knowshon being out played on the practice field by a younger, faster and more gifted runningback, only to see Knowshon prevail as a top 5RB because of how well he plays football...

Oh wait...

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If Moreno hadn't been pressed into service when Willis McGahee broke his leg, I'm not sure Moreno would be on an NFL roster currently.

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As for the Stats, I'm referring to real football, not fantasy.

He isn't an elite talent, but he does everything well and in the real football field that's what keeps you on the field.

If Moreno hadn't been pressed into service when Willis McGahee broke his leg, I'm not sure Moreno would be on an NFL roster currently.

I'm not convinced Greene should be on an NFL roster right now.

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Whether Shonn Greene reaches 250 carries will predominantly be decided by how Bishop Sankey performs in the remaining 3 preseason games.

What the heck alternative reality is going on in this thread lol

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Whether Shonn Greene reaches 250 carries will predominantly be decided by how Bishop Sankey performs in the remaining 3 preseason games.

What the heck alternative reality is going on in this thread lol

The one where Bishop Sankey hasn't shown why he should be giftwrapped an NFL feature back job yet.

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