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mrblonde1984

John Brown 2014 Season Outlook

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He's 5-foot-10 and weighs 179 pounds, and he was selected in the third round out of Pittsburgh State. With Ginn sidelined in Saturday's game vs. Houston, he led the team in receiving. Rotoworld thinks he may beat out Tedd Ginn for third wide receiver duties. He's been compared to T.Y. Hilton.

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Cardinals rookie WR John Brown caught five of his team-high 10 targets for 87 yards against the Texans Saturday night.

Brown got the start with both Michael Floyd and Ted Ginn sidelined, and made the most of it. Brown made three 20-plus yard catches and would have had a sure-fire touchdown had QB Drew Stanton made a better throw. Brown should push Ginn for the No. 3 receiver duties this season. Aug 9

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Cardinals GM Steve Keim has called third-round WR John Brown un-coverable in camp.

"I can tell you so far we haven't been able to cover him," were Keim's exact words. Brown has been creating buzz all offseason, drawing comparisons to past under-sized Bruce Arians wideouts like T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown. Brown's 5-foot-10, 179-pound frame comes with 4.34 wheels. He'll have a hard time making a re-draft impact behind Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and perhaps even Ted Ginn, but is obviously a name to pursue in Dynasty formats. Jul 28

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Azcardinals.com's Darren Urban said rookie WR/KR John Brown will "make an impact" for the Cardinals this season.

Brown has received a lot of praise from coach Bruce Arians, who has compared him to past pupils Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton. Brown was originally expected to be limited to special teams as a rookie, but it appears he will push newly-signed Ted Ginn for No. 3 wide receiver duties this season. Jun 14

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Third-round rookie WR/KR John Brown is drawing "favorable" comparisons to T.Y. Hilton at Cardinals OTAs.

It's an obvious comparison as both players are roughly 5'9/180 with sub-4.4 wheels. As a rookie deep threat under Cardinals coach Bruce Arians, Hilton shined with a 50-861-7 line. Brown doesn't project to have that kind of opportunity as he's blocked by Ted Ginn in Arizona, but there's room for a deep Dynasty stash here. The scheme fit in Arians' vertical attack is ideal. Jun 11

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Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has been impressed with third-round WR/KR John Brown in OTAs.

"He’s way ahead of most rookies, and coming from a small school, that’s unusual," Arians said. "It doesn’t overwhelm him at all. He learns fast and he can apply it fast." It's the second time in three weeks Brown has drawn the praise of Cardinals brass. Most of Brown's rookie contributions should come on special teams, but he could emerge as a situational deep threat. Jun 5

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Third-round WR/KR John Brown has reportedly impressed Cardinals brass during post-draft rookie workouts.

"John Brown is blowing everyone away," a team source said. "Explosive and sudden. Great hands and a better route runner than we even thought." Brown will likely be limited to special teams and situational offensive roles this season, but he has the skill set to develop into a deep-threat in Bruce Arians' offense. His 4.34 speed and 5-foot-10, 179-pound frame are almost identical to T.Y. Hilton, who thrived in Arians' offense in Indianapolis. May 17

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Cardinals selected Pittsburgh State WR/KR John Brown with the No. 91 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.

Brown (5-foot-10, 179) was a three-time D-2 All American, finishing his career with school records in catches (185), receiving yards (3,380), and touchdowns (32). He averaged 32.4 yards per kick return as a senior, and 11.5 yards on punts. With blazing 4.34 speed, Brown offers homerun-hitting return ability with some potential to contribute as a No. 3 or 4 receiver. He could help on special teams, but is an unlikely fantasy prospect -- especially behind Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Ted Ginn. May 9

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I read somewhere Fitz's contract next year makes him a candidate to be traded or released heading into next season. If this happens and Logan Thomas (who looked pretty good last night, albeit against 3rd string D) continues to progress, Brown may be thrust into a starting role come 2015. His redraft value, I think, is tied to a Fitz or Floyd injury but his dynasty value is quite high I would think.

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Here's some stats from Bruce Arians's offenses since 2010. I listed the WRs in order of targets.

Cardinals 2013

WR1: Larry Fitzgerald – 135 targets, 82 catches, 954 yards, 10 TDs

WR2: Michael Floyd – 111 targets, 65 catches, 1,041 yards, 5 TDs

WR3: Andre Roberts – 76 targets, 43 catches, 471 yards, 2 TDs

Colts 2012

WR1: Reggie Wayne – 195 targets, 106 catches 1,355 yards, 5 TDs

WR2: Donnie Avery – 124 targets, 60 catches, 781 yards, 3 TDs

WR3: T.Y. Hilton – 90 targets, 50 catches, 861 yards, 7 TDs

Steelers 2011

WR1: Antonio Brown – 124 targets, 69 catches, 1,108 yards, 2 TDs

WR2: Mike Wallace – 114 targets, 72 catches, 1,193 yards, 8 TDs

WR3: Hines Ward – 63 targets, 46 catches, 381 yards, 2 TDs

Steelers 2010

WR1: Mike Wallace – 99 targets, 60 catches, 1,257 yards, 10 TDs

WR2: Hines Ward – 93 targets, 59 catches, 755 yards, 5 TDs

WR3: Emmanuel Sanders – 50 targets, 28 catches, 376 yards, 2 TDs

Based on those numbers, I would say Brown's ceiling is what T.Y. Hilton did in 2012, which was 50-861-7. I think those numbers will be HARD to get though, considering the caliber of WR1 and WR2 with Fitzgerald and Floyd. Realistically, I think the most accurate way to project Brown would be to give him Andre Roberts numbers from last year. 43-471-2 seems like a realistic stat line for the rookie, and his floor is probably what Emmanuel Sanders did in 2010: 28-376-2.

John Brown caught four passes for 56 yards with a touchdown in Sunday's preseason game against the Bengals.

Brown appears to have sewn up the No. 3 wideout job, as he comes in on three-wide sets and kicks Larry Fitzgerald into the slot. The third-round rookie out of Pittsburg State has certainly earned it by buzzing throughout offseason practices and putting up a 10-165-1 line in three preseason games. There are some T.Y. Hilton comparisons here as Brown goes 5'11/179 but ran a 4.34. He's creeping onto our flier lists in 14- and 16-team leagues. Aug 24 - 11:19 PM

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I think the presence of two talented WRs like Fitzgerald and Floyd on the outside is going to draw more defensive coverage allowing John Brown to work a LOT in space.

Especially in 4-wide sets.

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Liking this kid a lot as a late round flier. Could hold some solid numbers, and if Fitz or Floyd get banged up he could end up doing some real damage.

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Liking this kid a lot as a late round flier. Could hold some solid numbers, and if Fitz or Floyd get banged up he could end up doing some real damage.

I actually like him better with both Fitz+Floyd on the field with him. Allows him to slip through the cracks because defenses have to account for those two first.

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Very nice!

I'm just wary of him being a fantasy asset.

The third WR spot was not productive for them last year, not too many targets.

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http://www.hudl.com/...ights/105306375

This guy can get open from anywhere with his speed. I really feel he's the next Desean Jackson.

Do you like him more than Austin now with Bradford out for the count?

I do like this kid's skills.

Not sure, but I had to at least consider the possibility that Tavon might underperform my original expectations with the injury to Bradford.

At the very least, John Brown is Tavon Austin insurance for me. Potentially Josh Gordon insurance in the event of a suspension.

But, I can definitely see John Brown as a high floor - high upside WR2. Ideally I'll only need him for my FLEX spot or as a bye-week WR fill-in.

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I think the presence of two talented WRs like Fitzgerald and Floyd on the outside is going to draw more defensive coverage allowing John Brown to work a LOT in space.

Especially in 4-wide sets.

I remember saying this about Andre Roberts last year though. Didn't happen.

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There's a major difference between a guy that runs a 4.34 (John Brown) and a guy that runs a 4.46 (Andre Roberts).

They're different molds of receivers. John Brown can better utilize his sheer speed to get open quicker, and also blow the top off the defense.

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Is he returning kicks? Those of us in return yardage leagues love guys like this since they slip through the cracks yet put up WR2 numbers despite modest receiving stats.

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Based on those numbers, I would say Brown's ceiling is what T.Y. Hilton did in 2012, which was 50-861-7. I think those numbers will be HARD to get though, considering the caliber of WR1 and WR2 with Fitzgerald and Floyd. Realistically, I think the most accurate way to project Brown would be to give him Andre Roberts numbers from last year. 43-471-2 seems like a realistic stat line for the rookie, and his floor is probably what Emmanuel Sanders did in 2010: 28-376-2.

This sounds about right. His real value will be in dynasty as Fitz will probably be gone after this season.

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Already getting some helium:

Coach Bruce Arians believes third-round WR John Brown could play up to 60 percent of the Cardinals' offensive snaps.

That would be more than enough to put Brown on the fantasy radar. As NFL.com's Chris Wesseling points out, T.Y. Hilton played 57 percent of the Colts' snaps as a rookie for Arians in 2012. Hilton is a player to whom Brown has been frequently compared. The source of constant praise from his coach and GM Steve Keim, Brown has 10 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown through three preseason games. He's shaping up as a viable late-round flier.

Source: The MMQB

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I've had Brown on my watch list since training camp started. If Brown had a better QB I would've taken the plunge. I have Cooks which I feel they will be used similarly but Brees will do for Cooks what Palmer can't with Brown.

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Seems like Ginn will be the guy for returns though, so Brown's not quite an option in return yardage leagues...yet

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I think the presence of two talented WRs like Fitzgerald and Floyd on the outside is going to draw more defensive coverage allowing John Brown to work a LOT in space.

Especially in 4-wide sets.

Liking this kid a lot as a late round flier. Could hold some solid numbers, and if Fitz or Floyd get banged up he could end up doing some real damage.

I actually like him better with both Fitz+Floyd on the field with him. Allows him to slip through the cracks because defenses have to account for those two first.

http://www.hudl.com/...ights/105306375

This guy can get open from anywhere with his speed. I really feel he's the next Desean Jackson.

I don't think people really understand where I'm coming from with my expectations for John Brown this season.

The first thing you need to realize is that the NFL has largely moved to 3-wide sets as their base offensive formation. If John Brown is the starting slot WR for the Cardinals, that means he's practically an "every down" player already.

http://www.footballo...sonnel-analysis

You need to understand the formations if you don't:

Personnel:

"00" - 5 wide receivers, 0 RBs, 0 TEs

"01" - 4 wide receivers, 0 RBs, 1 TE

"02" - 3 wide receivers, 0 RBs, 2 TEs

"10" - 4 wide receivers, 1 RB, 0 TEs

"11" - 3 wide receivers, 1 RB, 1 TE

"12" - 2 wide receivers, 1 RB, 2 TEs

"20" - 3 wide receivers, 2 RBs, 0 TEs

"21" - 2 wide receivers, 2 RBs, 1 TE

"22" - 1 wide receiver, 2 RBs, 2 TEs

"Teams came out in 11 personnel on a majority of plays: 51.2 percent. They came out with three or more wide receivers on 58.8 percent of plays."

58.8 - 51.2 = on 7.6% of the snaps NFL offenses came out with 4 or more wide receivers.

But here's the kicker:

Arizona used 10 personnel (4 wide receivers on the field) on 11 percent of plays.

And that was BEFORE they drafted John Brown in the 3rd round.

John Brown is going to be heavily used, because this is Bruce Arians' offense we're talking about. They line up with a ton of wide receivers on the field, and they throw the ball. Because they have so many wide receivers on the field, it's easier for an extremely fast guy like John Brown to get lost by the defense during a play on crossing routes or a deep seam route, because with Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd on the field, there's a lot of weapons to account for. Throw in Rob Housler, and John Brown and his 4.34 speed are going to be one of the last guys the defense is focusing on.

Regarding other NFL team's usage of 4-wide personnel:

"New England and Seattle were the only other teams above five percent, and they were just barely above. Kansas City was the other team other than Arizona that went without a tight end more than ten percent of the time, but they were often using 20 personnel (3 WRs, 2 RBs, 0 TEs) instead of 10 (4 WRs, 1 RB, 0 TEs)."

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