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Robrain

Theo Riddick 2014 Season Outlook

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Can't believe there hasn't been a thread for this guy yet this offseason.

I was explaining his value in our 0.5 PPR 14-team league to one of my leaguemates:

As for Riddick, I think his floor is going to be equal to Dexter McCluster or Danny Woodhead.

If you're desperate for a RB (which in this league is going to be a certainty for a lot of teams), in an emergency situation you're just hoping for 10 fantasy points (double digits) from your fill-in / bye-week RB.

Ways to achieve 10 points in our scoring settings:

100 rushing yards = 10 points

100 receiving yards = 10 points

Neither of those scenarios are likely for Theo Riddick. However...

50 rushing yards + 50 receiving yards = 10 points

That's more likely for him than either of the previous two scenarios.

Let's not forget that it's 0.5 PPR and he'll be playing lots of his snaps out of the slot:

4 catches (2 fantasy points) + 20 rushing yards + 60 receiving yards = 10 points

4 catches (2 fantasy points) + 40 rushing yards + 40 receiving yards = 10 points

I could definitely see that happening.

He's basically Ace Sanders on a much, MUCH better offense:

http://www.nfl.com/p...ogs?season=2013

Two of Ace Sanders standout weekly totals from last season:

8 catches (4 fantasy points) + 61 receiving yards = 10.1 points

8 catches (

Ace Sanders had 6 games of 50 or more receiving yards last season:

5 for 64

4 for 59

8 for 61

4 for 61

8 for 67

6 for 50

And that was on the Jags.

Throw in a TD and those weekly fantasy points vault easily into double-digits.

More importantly, Ace Sanders was an emergency play in fantasy last season at a position that had plentiful options every week (WR / FLEX).

Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

That's the difference between Ace Sanders and Theo Riddick. You can start Theo Riddick in your RB position.

He's not a 3-down back, but his usage is going to make him productive in our league's scoring settings because of the position he's eligible to start at (he's a essentially a slot WR with RB eligibility).

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And yes, last night he was unfortunate enough to have his pass lead him into the NFL's resident anti-safety expert, Donte Whitner.

But he's fine and was held out the rest of the game as a precautionary measure. He got his snaps in with the 1's with Stafford at QB, which says all you need to know. We'll see more of him as preseason continues.

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I'm guessing he's the third rb on the roster and he's also the slot receiver?

I'm trying to figure out how he's going to get playing time with Bush and Bell both ahead of him.

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Two of Ace Sanders standout weekly totals from last season:

8 catches (4 fantasy points) + 61 receiving yards = 10.1 points

8 catches (4 fantasy points) + 67 receiving yards = 10.7 points

Fixed that, was skipping around when I was typing.

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I'm guessing he's the third rb on the roster and he's also the slot receiver?

I'm trying to figure out how he's going to get playing time with Bush and Bell both ahead of him.

How did Sproles get playing time with both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram (who they drafted in the 1st Round)?

Because they utilized him heavily in the passing game.

The slot WR snaps will likely be split this year between Riddick, Ebron (gives that height/size/strength element for matchups for whenever they want that on the field), and Broyles (who is coming off two ACL tears and now an Achilles tear).

Let's not forget that Reggie Bush is 29 years old. If he were to go down, Riddick's role in the offense would increase EVEN MORE.

He's no spring chicken anymore...

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Megatron

Golden Tate

Reggie Bush

Joique Bell

Eric Ebron/Joseph Fauria/Brandon Pettigrew

He's 5th in line in the pecking order. Probably 6th when you toss in Kris Durham.

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How did Sproles get playing time with both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram?

Except on the Lions the roles will look like:

Bush = Sproles

Bell = P.Thomas

Riddick = Ingram

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Megatron

Golden Tate

Reggie Bush

Joique Bell

Eric Ebron/Joseph Fauria/Brandon Pettigrew

He's 5th in line in the pecking order. Probably 6th when you toss in Kris Durham.

This is wildly incorrect just even glancing at it.

What's more likely to happen first of all, Joique Bell + Reggie Bush both being on the field at the same time?

Or either Joique Bell/Reggie Bush being on the field + Riddick, who his teammates have been saying will play the Sproles role, and who also can play the slot?

Joique Bell OR Reggie Bush in the backfield with Theo Riddick in the slot. Thus, Riddick is in on the field for a significant amount of snaps.

Riddick can be motioned around, into the backfield. Riddick can get screen passes out of the slot as well, essentially serving as a replacement for what Jahvid Best used to do for them in the passing game.

Who is Riddick's real hurdle to snaps in the slot? Eric Ebron? We already know that he's only going to be a bit player in his first season with the Lions, having mental problems learning the offense and dropping passes. He's not suddenly turning into Jimmy Graham. And I don't think he's a good enough blocker to stay on the field as the in-line TE. That's why they have Pettigrew.

Fauria ain't taking over the slot role. He's a red-zone specialist and TE depth behind/ahead of Ebron.

That leaves Broyles, and even if he does share snaps at the slot WR spot, I don't think that he's keeping Riddick off the field since they're intent to use Riddick a lot as a moveable chess piece.

Calvin (outside WR) + Riddick (slot WR) + Pettigrew (in-line TE) + Tate (outside WR)

1 of either Bush or Bell (RB in backfield)

Is the most likely scenario for 3-wide sets. Broyles may rotate in at the slot WR spot in order to keep Riddick fresh, and Ebron will likely rotate in there as well in 2TE sets and when they want his size/matchup advantage there.

But Riddick will see a significant amount of snaps because they aren't coming at the expense of Bush / Bell. Riddick being on the field doesn't mean Bush or Bell come off the field.

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How did Sproles get playing time with both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram?

Except on the Lions the roles will look like:

Bush = Sproles

Bell = P.Thomas

Riddick = Ingram

Except for the fact that Mark Ingram never played in the slot. He also wasn't a WR in college. Try again, please.

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How did Sproles get playing time with both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram?

Except on the Lions the roles will look like:

Bush = Sproles

Bell = P.Thomas

Riddick = Ingram

Except for the fact that Mark Ingram never played in the slot. He also wasn't a WR in college. Try again, please.

Broyles looked 10 times better in the same game, and didn't leave the field injured on his first touch. B)

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Part of a separate conversation, which adds context to the same conversation we're having in this thread:

I dont think the OC will help his case much. Still has to compete with way too many talented guys. The talent in the WR and RB group is a lot higher in Detroit than in N'Arlins.

This was my full response:

I'd disagree with that on the sole basis that Mark Ingram was a 1st Round pick in 2011, and Sproles posted a stat-line of:

87 carries / 603 rushing yards / 2 rushing TDs

86 catches / 710 receiving yards / 7 receiving TDs

And I don't think that Sproles played nearly as much out of the slot as Riddick will, because while Sproles was a RB in college, Riddick was actually a WR:

http://www.sports-re...-sproles-1.html

http://www.sports-re...-riddick-1.html

Not to mention, the Saints already had Lance Moore as a veteran entrenched in the slot in 2011:

http://www.nfl.com/p...2506287/profile

Sproles had those stats in 2011, while splitting snaps with 3 other RB's: Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram (1st Round draft pick that year), and Chris Ivory:

http://www.nfl.com/p...2495466/profile

http://www.nfl.com/p...2507141/profile

Pierre Thomas had:

110 carries / 50 receptions

Mark Ingram had:

122 carries / 11 receptions

Chris Ivory had:

79 carries

That was 311 carries for the RBs not named Sproles, and 61 receptions.

Factor in Sproles 87 carries + 86 receptions, and we're looking at a rough total of:

400 carries + 150 receptions

Now factor in that instead of those carries being split between 4 RBs (in order of most-to-least carries, Ingram, Thomas, Sproles, Ivory), they're only going to be split between 3 RBs(Bell, Bush, Riddick).

Now factor in that lots of Riddick's targets aren't actually going to eat into the total targets of the RB group, because he'll be playing the slot instead of RB on those plays. So a large chunk of his receptions will be eaten from the slot WR's piece of the pie, as opposed to the RB's piece of the pie.

Essentially what you're looking at here is that while the RB's combined for 150 receptions, the Lions RB's (counting Riddick) total receptions might instead look like 160-200 total receptions. This would be because Riddick's passes he catches from the slot would actually increase the RB group's "as a whole" total receptions.

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How did Sproles get playing time with both Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram?

Except on the Lions the roles will look like:

Bush = Sproles

Bell = P.Thomas

Riddick = Ingram

Except for the fact that Mark Ingram never played in the slot. He also wasn't a WR in college. Try again, please.

Broyles looked 10 times better in the same game, and didn't leave the field injured on his first touch. B)

Broyles likely got more playing time than he normally would have considering Riddick left early.

You actually feel that Riddick's injury risks are HIGHER than the guy who tore his ACL twice and is coming off an Achilles tear last season?

The Lions using Riddick in the slot to me just says they aren't counting on the health of Ryan Broyles this year. Anything they get from him is likely viewed as a bonus.

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Correction, I can add even more context to this conversation.

Regarding how Sproles will be used in Philadelphia, there was discussion.

ProFootballFocus provided this stat regarding Sproles time in New Orleans:

Sproles will eat into some McCoy snaps. But no reason both can’t be on field together. Sproles spent 39.1% of snaps split out wide/ in slot

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) March 13, 2014

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Broyles likely got more playing time than he normally would have considering Riddick left early.

You actually feel that Riddick's injury risks are HIGHER than the guy who tore his ACL twice and is coming off an Achilles tear last season?

The Lions using Riddick in the slot to me just says they aren't counting on the health of Ryan Broyles this year. Anything they get from him is likely viewed as a bonus.

Never said a thing about injury risk, just which of them is healthy right now, and which of them looked better on the field last night.

You want to bring up Riddick playing WR in college, great, let's compare his college stats to Broyles. (I have no clue what RIddicks are)

They're using Riddick in the slot, because it's the Lions and they're likely going to use 10 guys in the slot, just like every other year. Tate, Pettigrew, Furia, Ebron, Durham, Broyles, Reggie, Joique, Ogletree and even Ross (handling special teams, likely keeps him on the roster).

Playing 'in the slot' and being 'THE slot receiver' are nowhere near the same thing.

Worth a pre-season wait and see? Sure.

Worth a roster spot come week 1? Not unless the next 3 weeks show me something amazing.

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...you must be joking to think Pettigrew is going to see more than a handful (OR ANY) snaps in the slot.

You're just looking for names to add to that list. Likewise, I'm pretty sure Durham is outside receiver position depth.

I could see Ebron or Fauria being on the field in the slot for the majority of times Calvin Johnson is motioned into the slot. This would keep a 6'4 / 6'7" receiver on the outside instead of having Broyles or Riddick (5'10 / 5'9") stuck outside on those plays.

But those wouldn't really be plays that Riddick would have normally been in that slot role for, since the design of the play is to free up Calvin by having him in the slot.

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Not to mention, usually during Lions practice when the receivers start their receiving drills, Fauria and Ebron went with them, while Pettigrew joined the O-line group for blocking drills.

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

Where did Sproles finish in PPR / 0.5 PPR leagues the past few seasons?

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

Where did Sproles finish in PPR / 0.5 PPR leagues the past few seasons?

Answer?

Sproles finished as the 26th RB in 2013 in this league's scoring

Sproles finished as the 16th RB in 2012 in this league's scoring

(10 rushing or receiving yards = 1 point, 0.5 PPR)

I can only imagine Sproles did just as well or better in 2011 when he had his breakout season.

So to say this guy can't be a Top-28 RB is more than a little silly.

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

Besides, I just realized you took that sentence out of context.

Theo Riddick is startable in your RB position this year, in much the same way that Lebron James is not.

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

Where did Sproles finish in PPR / 0.5 PPR leagues the past few seasons?

Oh. You think he'll take on Sproles role. Which means he'll be targeted close to 100 times in the passing game. Because that's what he'll need to be targeted considering he's the 3rd string RB and Bush and Bell will likely repeat with close to 375 rushes combined.

And we haven't even mentioned LeShoure yet who's gotten some pretty good reviews in camp.

This guy won't sniff nearly enough snaps, regardless of where he lines up, to be startable in even a 28 team league.

Edit: check that, 4th string RB.

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Theo Riddick will be startable in your RB position this year, with much more upside than the Jags offense could give Ace Sanders.

So he'll finish as the 28th best RB this year? Yeah, ok.

Besides, I just realized you took that sentence out of context.

Theo Riddick is startable in your RB position this year, in much the same way that Lebron James is not.

I didn't take anything out of context. If the premise of your argument is Theo will be startable some week this year, then sure, maybe. Matt Asiata was startable last year too.

Again, if that's your argument then you mine as we'll start a thread on every 3rd and 4th string RB in the league.

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Every 3rd and 4th RB in the league is not going to have nearly the amount of receptions as the 3rd string RB on the Lions playing the slot position.

Who is LeShoure more likely to eat into, carries or receptions?

If carries, most likely that's coming from Bell/Bush's piece of that pie.

LeShoure and Theo fit two different roles in the offense, they don't cannibalize each other. LeShoure is essentially Chris Ivory, who did not hurt Sproles touches.

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Sure. Barring an injury to Bush or Bell, he'll be worthless. Like I said, he'd have to get 100 targets to approach Sproles production. Feel free to bump this thread around week 9 if you'd like and we can discuss further then.

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