Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

mmrodri

Rushing Distributions

13 posts in this topic

Around this time of year we see a lot of hubbub about what backs are going to be in timeshares, who's splitting carries with who, and whether a team uses a true workhorse.

I found this chart the other day while searching for something totally different and found it incredibly enlightening.

http://www.junkyardjake.com/RedZoneRushers/

In terms of the top rushers from last year, only one back was near 90% of his team's carries. Gotta be AP, right? McCoy? Charles! Gotta be Charles... Nope. It was Forte.

  • Charles took 62% of his team's rushes.
  • McCoy took 79%.
  • Lynch took 62%
  • Ryan Mathews took 70% of his team's carries.

The redzone carries are even more interesting (Forte is the only one at ~90% there too), but I'll get into that later.

My takeaway from this, a workhorse isn't necessarily taking the vast majority of his team's carries. 60% was what guys who are considered workhorse status got. The dreaded timeshare backs (Gio/BJGE, Bush/Bell, etc.) were all in the 50% range.

Consume the stats at will.

9 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Around this time of year we see a lot of hubbub about what backs are going to be in timeshares, who's splitting carries with who, and whether a team uses a true workhorse.

I found this chart the other day while searching for something totally different and found it incredibly enlightening.

http://www.junkyardj...RedZoneRushers/

In terms of the top rushers from last year, only one back was near 90% of his team's carries. Gotta be AP, right? McCoy? Charles! Gotta be Charles... Nope. It was Forte.

  • Charles took 62% of his team's rushes.
  • McCoy took 79%.
  • Lynch took 62%
  • Ryan Mathews took 70% of his team's carries.

The redzone carries are even more interesting (Forte is the only one at ~90% there too), but I'll get into that later.

My takeaway from this, a workhorse isn't necessarily taking the vast majority of his team's carries. 60% was what guys who are considered workhorse status got. The dreaded timeshare backs (Gio/BJGE, Bush/Bell, etc.) were all in the 50% range.

Consume the stats at will.

Awesome stuff, thanks for posting.

Shocked that Lynch was only at 62%. Would never have guessed that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all. What gives?

Andre Ellington ari.gif RB 74.3% Stepfan Taylor ari.gif RB 20.3%

There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all. What gives?

Andre Ellington ari.gif RB 74.3% Stepfan Taylor ari.gif RB 20.3%

There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

There's some shenanigans going on there...good catch. It might be a bug in their system that retired players got dropped from the list?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A question about the data:

It has Ellington at 74% of the teams rushing attempts but doesn't list Mendenhall at all. What gives?

Andre Ellington ari.gif RB 74.3% Stepfan Taylor ari.gif RB 20.3%

There's a similar issue with the Browns and Willis McGahee not being listed at all.

There's some shenanigans going on there...good catch. It might be a bug in their system that retired players got dropped from the list?

That would make sense since that is the commonality between the two players. Any other retired RBs that we can test the theory on?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it's broken. Forte didn't get 90% of the carries last year (that would be crazy!) he did get 71% which still seems high.

Holy hell is that website design bad. I clicked around a bit and saw:

space.gifCopyright © 1998-2013 JunkYard Jake.® All Rights Reserved.

It looks more 1995 than 1998! Geocities Style in full effect. Cool attempt at stats though.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it's broken. Forte didn't get 90% of the carries last year (that would be crazy!) he did get 71% which still seems high.

Holy hell is that website design bad. I clicked around a bit and saw:

space.gifCopyright © 1998-2013 JunkYard Jake.® All Rights Reserved.

It looks more 1995 than 1998! Geocities Style in full effect. Cool attempt at stats though.

I suspect it's the same issue. Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure if someone had the time this could be put together accurately. Any volunteers here?

As for actual rushes, I think its important to look at touches and not rushes, because a guy like Darren Sproles barely gets any carries but he will be the leader in touches from the backfield. Also these things change a lot and we don't know about rookie situations.

Best way to analyze this would be a full write up on each team's depth. Rank the RB on each team, project out touches, then write some notes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect it's the same issue. Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

Jeez, Bush isnt even in a camp somewhere? That guy really fell off a cliff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect it's the same issue. Michael Bush, like McGahee and Mendenhall, is not currently in the league.

Jeez, Bush isnt even in a camp somewhere? That guy really fell off a cliff.

Yeah what happened to Michael Bush? He's a competent back with skills and it's kind of shocking that he's not rostered.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michael Bush would rush for 2,000 yards on the Colts. I'm dumbfounded as to why he isn't on a team as at least a goal line back somewhere.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm at work at the moment, but I just want to say that this is a fantastic idea for a thread.

I'd be more than happy to help compile data for it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure if someone had the time this could be put together accurately. Any volunteers here?

As for actual rushes, I think its important to look at touches and not rushes, because a guy like Darren Sproles barely gets any carries but he will be the leader in touches from the backfield. Also these things change a lot and we don't know about rookie situations.

Best way to analyze this would be a full write up on each team's depth. Rank the RB on each team, project out touches, then write some notes.

Touches over carries is definitely better. Or both.

I emailed the site owner and he's correcting the carries issue.

I'll send him another email about how easy or difficult it would be to add a column for catches and then a total column.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.