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mmrodri

Rotoworld's Shy-Away Top 40 Discussion

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People in the comments are legitimately saying that he hits on "all but 5" of these picks each year. A lot of these are obvious: aging player, career season, and the remainder seem like tin foil hat predictions based on paranoia.

Just in the top-10, I disagree with 4, 3 are blatantly obvious as "avoid" players, and 3 are fair guesses.

1. Peyton Manning

Obvious to avoid in the first round if other elite QBs will be available in the 2nd. Won't be bad, just won't be a weekly monster.

2. Vernon Davis

His TD-per-reception rate is a bit absurd and I've never really liked the guy anyway, but with a late 5th round ADP, I can't imagine this pick breaks your team. Disappointing, yes. Avoid, sure. But #2 on the list seems extreme. So as far as "shy-away", I guess I agree, but it's not like he probably won't finish top-12. This "avoid" is no more justified than the hype they gave him last offseason.

3. Giovani Bernard

Totally disagree. Bernard seems poised to explode even if Green-Ellis is still alive and Hill mixes in. He's been on the goal line last year and this year and the argument about his YPC seems to come from playing a couple of nasty run Ds late in the year and that Minnesota game where Andy Dalton lit up the Vikings secondary.

4. Pierre Garcon

The guy had a league-high number of targets and receptions last year and his QB play has looked awful to begin the year. This seems like a no-brainer.

5. Arian Foster

A popular pick this year, and for good reason after that back surgery and the hamstrings in camp. I personally think a mid-late second rounder on Arian could win a lot of championships this year, but I'm not going to necessarily fault him for guessing this.

6. Sammy Watkins

Avoiding a rookie WR that has been hyped as the second coming on the run-heaviest team in the NFL with an extremely raw sophomore QB is an obvious pick to me.

7. Percy Harvin

Totally disagree on all of his points. Through 2 preseason games and the Super Bowl, the Hawks have made a concerted effort to make sure Harvin gets fed. His injury history is overblown, and he's super-dynamic when he gets the ball in his hands. This is like when Jordy Nelson went in the 5th round last year.

8. C.J. Spiller

Totally disagree. He's in literally the same situation as last year, FJax is older and he's in the run-heaviest offense in football.

9. Chris Johnson

Totally disagree. He has been a RB1 in standard every year for the last 5 years. He's got insane per game numbers even if you remove his 2000 yard season.

10. Trent Richardson

I guess. Lots of people are hating on Trent and I don't blame them. Through the preseason games he's had a scrub line and if that carries over into the season, he's going to look terrible. I think much of the hate is undue, but if that O-line is still awful at run-blocking by Week 1, (it should be) anyone in the running game will be trash.

Anyone care to take on 11-20?

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8. C.J. Spiller

Totally disagree. He's in literally the same situation as last year, FJax is older and he's in the run-heaviest offense in football.

No he isn't in the same situation. Bryce Brown is a big addition for this team.

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I found that 75% of this list was guys who I also consider overvalued. He'll probably end up about 50/50 but I think he hit the nail on the head with most of these.

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I give silva props for last year. He did quite well and he didn't do 3 or 4 guys, he picked 40. He nailed Arian foster right on the head as his #1.

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The only one I disagree with is Gio. The rest are meh's for me and I won't have any of them on my team. I like Peyton, but I'm not taking him in the first round. Silva has pegged Jeremy Hill as one of his "boner" picks this year. So any time he can drop Gio down and lift the spirits of his dark horse "Hill" he will.

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First off, let me be clear that RW Forums and RW Main site are unrelated - I wish I had some pull on the Main Site some days, LOL (yes, some of those blurbs are unfortunate, but hey, it's free news and it's fast). Never met any of those guys, and like many members, I won't always agree with what's written.

But let me just ask this for those that question these types of articles - have you tried doing a ranking like the one just done? Try to go deeper than 5-6 overvalued guys. It's easy to point out 1-2 people you don't believe in, but just coming up with a list like that is impressive - and by it's sheer size, means you will miss badly on some, hit on some, and kinda be in-between on others.

For those of you that know me from the Baseball Forums, you know the threads on sleepers I used to do each preseason - and that was work going 10-12 deep outside the top 100 ADP there. Silva just took on listing 40 guys. I salute that - I might not agree with all of them (I think Gio is the one most likely to miss on too), but man, I gotta tip my cap to that kind of work.

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First off, let me be clear that RW Forums and RW Main site are unrelated - I wish I had some pull on the Main Site some days, LOL (yes, some of those blurbs are unfortunate, but hey, it's free news and it's fast). Never met any of those guys, and like many members, I won't always agree with what's written.

But let me just ask this for those that question these types of articles - have you tried doing a ranking like the one just done? Try to go deeper than 5-6 overvalued guys. It's easy to point out 1-2 people you don't believe in, but just coming up with a list like that is impressive - and by it's sheer size, means you will miss badly on some, hit on some, and kinda be in-between on others.

For those of you that know me from the Baseball Forums, you know the threads on sleepers I used to do each preseason - and that was work going 10-12 deep outside the top 100 ADP there. Silva just took on listing 40 guys. I salute that - I might not agree with all of them (I think Gio is the one most likely to miss on too), but man, I gotta tip my cap to that kind of work.

I just looked at the whole list and I agree on all of them except Hilton and Gio. He even said he hopes he's wrong on Hilton. With Hilton I'm hoping the Colts coaches can look at how valuable he was in the playoffs and center the passing offense around him. Wayne and Nicks should be security blankets for Luck and Hilton should be the first read every time.

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I feel like most of these are really obvious picks but I'll give him credit for going out on a limb for a couple (Manning, Bernard)

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I think it's a good list and those were for the most part the players I was already looking to avoid. If you look at his list last year he nailed it with every one of the guys except Mathews

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this guy ranked Jordan Cameron ahead of Peyton Manning, I can't get past that when reading his analysis. it's ridiculous strategy to say that and makes me question how good can everything else he writes be

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Yeah 5 misses but not small miss, really big ones : Zac Stacy, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Matthews, Leveon Bell and even Riley Cooper.

There were some other deep-sliper picks that were easy to nail. But it was still solid.

Most importantly, he missed by not detecting the biggest busts (non-injury related) : Rice, Richardson, Wilson and to an extent Spiller (half injury related) .

There is always a lot of disappointing players, especially in late rounds.

But that still solid I guess.

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Wasn't this guy singing praises of David Wilson til pretty much the end of the season?

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First off, let me be clear that RW Forums and RW Main site are unrelated - I wish I had some pull on the Main Site some days, LOL (yes, some of those blurbs are unfortunate, but hey, it's free news and it's fast). Never met any of those guys, and like many members, I won't always agree with what's written.

But let me just ask this for those that question these types of articles - have you tried doing a ranking like the one just done? Try to go deeper than 5-6 overvalued guys. It's easy to point out 1-2 people you don't believe in, but just coming up with a list like that is impressive - and by it's sheer size, means you will miss badly on some, hit on some, and kinda be in-between on others.

For those of you that know me from the Baseball Forums, you know the threads on sleepers I used to do each preseason - and that was work going 10-12 deep outside the top 100 ADP there. Silva just took on listing 40 guys. I salute that - I might not agree with all of them (I think Gio is the one most likely to miss on too), but man, I gotta tip my cap to that kind of work.

I just looked at the whole list and I agree on all of them except Hilton and Gio. He even said he hopes he's wrong on Hilton. With Hilton I'm hoping the Colts coaches can look at how valuable he was in the playoffs and center the passing offense around him. Wayne and Nicks should be security blankets for Luck and Hilton should be the first read every time.

I like Hilton this year. I know he's inconsistent but to me he's the kind of guy that you have amid a solid WR core on your team. In favorable matchups (and definitely at home) he can win you weeks almost on his own. He explodes sometimes. His ADP is not very high. I actually think the hate has gone too far and he's a good value so long as you don't expect him to be super consistent. He's sort of a wack-a-mole but IMO his big weeks are sort of easy to forecast. You use him then and reap the huge benefits.

With Gio, I think Evan is also underrating him a bit. Don't think I'd go for him at pick #16 but early 3rd round I think he's a great pick.

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I guess the "obvious" ones might not be totally obvious to people who play more casually and rely on the RW analysis as their research. I can respect those picks, but I guess I get irked whenever I see people touting him as hitting on a bunch of them when he throws 40 picks out there that are mostly obvious to begin with.

The other thing I need more clarification on are what people consider to be "successes" on his list. Is it enough that they had some bad games?

Some of the guys on the list had lower value than where they were drafted, but they still finished top 30 at the position.

MJD- drafted as the 16th overall RB and finished in the 20 slot in standard

Mathews- finished as an RB1 and got better as the year went on

Mendenhall-drafted as the 32nd RB, finished 25th

Blackmon- ended up being suspended but was BALLING before that. I'll give him this one because his knock was about knuckleheadedness, but he was worth his 10th round price for those weeks he was active.

Bell-finished strong after the foot injury

Gates- finished 9th among TEs

Jeffery- was not an afterthought to Trestman

BJGE-drafted as the 36th overall RB, finished 31st

Andre Brown-got hurt, but when he came off IR, he put up massive lines until he played teams with good defenses when the Giants couldn't hang.

Vick Ballard-won the starting RB job, but tore his ACL in game 2 so he got it right, but for the wrong reason

Stacy- Ended up with the job

Turbin- kept backing up Lynch in games

Fumblin' Dan- maddening used over Miller by Mike Sherman

Riley Cooper- Really good chemistry with Foles last season

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This coming from the guy who was singing the praises of David Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Trent Richardson.

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He really did nail a ton of those last year. You can say they were easy calls, but a lot of them were drafted highly anyway so it still counts. The last 10-20 are kind of dumb though, I mean yeah avoid Steve Smith and Tre Mason, you don't say...

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I feel like if people listened to Evan Silva's advice, they'd be bankrupt. He is all personal bias and seems to know very little about fantasy IMO.

In all fairness, I usually disagree with him but he does go out on a limb which i respect, and looking back at his 2013 list, it was shockingly accurate.

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I wouldn't pat myself on the back had I made such a list. I had Zac Stacy and Alshon Jeffery on a lot of my teams, and generally speaking, those guys were the key to me salvaging my season last year after having drafted studs like David Wilson and Lamar Miller and having Julio and Cobb go down to injury. Had a more casual fan read that column and decided to pass on those guys, he would have missed out on some players that could have been huge difference makers for their team.

I simply think it's silly to throw out a long list of players like this. Every player should be evaluated independently and then the decision should be made as to whether or not the player is worth his market price. You should never put on a label like "guy I would draft around or ignore this year."

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I guess the "obvious" ones might not be totally obvious to people who play more casually and rely on the RW analysis as their research. I can respect those picks, but I guess I get irked whenever I see people touting him as hitting on a bunch of them when he throws 40 picks out there that are mostly obvious to begin with.

The other thing I need more clarification on are what people consider to be "successes" on his list. Is it enough that they had some bad games?

Some of the guys on the list had lower value than where they were drafted, but they still finished top 30 at the position.

MJD- drafted as the 16th overall RB and finished in the 20 slot in standard

Mathews- finished as an RB1 and got better as the year went on

Mendenhall-drafted as the 32nd RB, finished 25th

Blackmon- ended up being suspended but was BALLING before that. I'll give him this one because his knock was about knuckleheadedness, but he was worth his 10th round price for those weeks he was active.

Bell-finished strong after the foot injury

Gates- finished 9th among TEs

Jeffery- was not an afterthought to Trestman

BJGE-drafted as the 36th overall RB, finished 31st

Andre Brown-got hurt, but when he came off IR, he put up massive lines until he played teams with good defenses when the Giants couldn't hang.

Vick Ballard-won the starting RB job, but tore his ACL in game 2 so he got it right, but for the wrong reason

Stacy- Ended up with the job

Turbin- kept backing up Lynch in games

Fumblin' Dan- maddening used over Miller by Mike Sherman

Riley Cooper- Really good chemistry with Foles last season

Well, here are a few counter points:

MJD-Was drafted too high, and proved it (per game avg was not pretty either)

Mathews- agreed (I was wrong on this one too)

Mendenhall-what about per game ranking?

Blackmon-we both agree here

Bell-crappy YPC, but yes, good fantasy #s. He was wrong

Gates- but where was he drafted? 9th among TEs last season was basically a streaming option in 12 team leagues.

Jeffery- he was wrong

BJGE-what about per game ranking?

Andre Brown-that's a lot of qualifiers on that defense of brown. He was wrong here, nevertheless (as I don't count an injury as justification for him being right or wrong)

Vick Ballard-very true, he was wrong

Stacy- very true, but required two guys falling flat on their face for it to happen and that took five games. still, he was wrong at the end of the season.

Turbin- that's his job, right? In all seriousness, his only point was for everyone to calm down, and he was right

Fumblin' Dan- Nothing about the dolphins had made sense in a decade

Riley Cooper- was garbage before the Vick injury/Foles promotion. You want him to predict Vick going down and the backup qb coming on and having good chemistry with his backup WR?

I count 6 out of forty that were definitely wrong, the rest could be debated or he was flat out right. I'm not a Silva supporter by any means, just saying...

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My easy "shy away list":

1. Don't draft any Raider's players

2. Don't pay for any players based on last years stats only (Manning, Graham, Alshon Jeffery) when there are great options on the board a full round, or more, later.

3. Don't get sucked into preseason hype (Brandin Cooks) unless their draft stock is still late (Justin Hunter, Zac Ertz, Kyle Rudolph) on the site where your draft will be held (i.e. FFC means nothing to me anymore; it's all about ESPN's crappy rankings, baby!).

4. Don't draft players that absolutely need the big plays to meet draft expectations (Spiller, Desean)

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