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AJ Reed - 1B HOU

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in 33 may plate appearances reed is now hitting .133 with one home run and three walks, one of which was intentional

whatever else it may or may not mean, it's pretty undeniable that he is not currently hot in any way

AAA is an entire level of the minor leagues that he has never played at before. it is possible that it could take him more than three weeks of games to master it

27 games in three weeks?

i meant that as more of a rhetorical expression, not as a reference to the literal exact number of games he has actually played

like, all these people figuring he would come up as soon as the super 2 deadline passed, because they *assumed* he would only need 3 weeks. when actually, it is fairly likely he needs more than that, e.g. the amount of time he has actually already gotten (a month-plus), plus some more after that

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I know the BABIP argument is both factual and a decent explainer of some of the superficial statistics, but I still don't believe the Astros are going to call up a sub-.240 hitter to the majors.

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BABIP

2014: .326

2015 .384

2016 .243

so 2015 was a very lucky season, you are saying?

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BABIP

2014: .326

2015 .384

2016 .243

so 2015 was a very lucky season, you are saying?

Well 2015 is the largest single season sample size. What direction do you think 2016 is headed ?

2014 285 PA .326

2015 322 PA .385

2016 120 PA .243

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BABIP

2014: .326

2015 .384

2016 .243

so 2015 was a very lucky season, you are saying?

Well 2015 is the largest single season sample size. What direction do you think 2016 is headed ?

2014 285 PA .326

2015 322 PA .385

2016 120 PA .243

I was mocking his post if .243 is too low, then .385 was too high.

Like a previous poster said, BABIP is worthless. I don't know why BABIP and WAR are ever brought up on fantasy sites. BABIP, alone, could just mean he isn't hitting enough LD's (combining LD% and BABIP could have some merit), WAR can maybe predict a players playing time, that's about it

You really have to watch the games to see if a player has been unlucky or not. Not look at BABIP

Edited by rperricone

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BABIP

2014: .326

2015 .384

2016 .243

so 2015 was a very lucky season, you are saying?

Well 2015 is the largest single season sample size. What direction do you think 2016 is headed ?

2014 285 PA .326

2015 322 PA .385

2016 120 PA .243

I was mocking his post if .243 is too low, then .385 was too high.

Like a previous poster said, BABIP is worthless. I don't know why BABIP and WAR are ever brought up on fantasy sites. BABIP, alone, could just mean he isn't hitting enough LD's (combining LD% and BABIP could have some merit), WAR can maybe predict a players playing time, that's about it

You really have to watch the games to see if a player has been unlucky or not. Not look at BABIP

I don't have any shares of AJ Reed, but I'm going to have to disagree with you there.. Should anyone make decisions based strictly off BABIP? No absolutely not.. but that along with other advanced statistics, it can be used to predict or make assumptions about future performance..

If someone has a .400 BABIP it is going to go down over time 99.9% of the time.. if player A has a batting average of .300 with a BABIP of .400.. you can make the assumption that his batting average is inflated due to a high BABIP. Player B has a batting average of .300 but has a BABIP of .250, who's batting average is more likely to stay at the current rate/increase?

Not saying it's the end all, be all.. but it's far from a worthless stat.

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You really have to watch the games to see if a player has been unlucky or not. Not look at BABIP

I too disagree with your hats stance on babip. Just because there may be a better way to do something doesn't mean another is worthless. I imagine if we had minor league exit velocity and launch angles with reeds history of both and combine them with babip, we'd have a better idea too. Combining those with watching the games is still going to be superior.

Babip has some use if you don't have a lot of time. In some cases you can pretty easily assess if someone's batting average sustainable for being low or high.

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I think if he has a super hot week or two and White is struggling, he'll be up regardless of his BA

has he had a super hot week or two YET?

the Astros are going to wait for his super 2 status to end .... that is when we will see Reed in the majors --- unless a couple of injuries happen.

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I think if he has a super hot week or two and White is struggling, he'll be up regardless of his BA

has he had a super hot week or two YET?

I did say "if"

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OK you got me ....

some day this year AJ Reed will make his major league debut

I wasn't trying to be snarky. He's probably up after Super 2 unless he forces the issue. You are correct, he has not forced the issue yet. It is still possible for him to force the issue before S2.

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BABIP

2014: .326

2015 .384

2016 .243

so 2015 was a very lucky season, you are saying?

Well 2015 is the largest single season sample size. What direction do you think 2016 is headed ?

2014 285 PA .326

2015 322 PA .385

2016 120 PA .243

I was mocking his post if .243 is too low, then .385 was too high.

Like a previous poster said, BABIP is worthless. I don't know why BABIP and WAR are ever brought up on fantasy sites. BABIP, alone, could just mean he isn't hitting enough LD's (combining LD% and BABIP could have some merit), WAR can maybe predict a players playing time, that's about it

You really have to watch the games to see if a player has been unlucky or not. Not look at BABIP

Didn't post it as a defining analysis on Reed's performance or lack there of. Just a quick observation. I saw his K rate hasn't spiked so decided to look it up.

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I like him as a prospect as much as you all, not too concerned about his first 120 AB's at AAA. He's still hitting HRs, doubles, knocking in runs, etc. Also the walk to strikeout ratio is rock solid. Only thing that hasn't come around yet is the average, which it ultimately will.

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I'm a little worried about Reed. The one thing that separated the people who "liked" him and the people who were highest on him was concern that he didn't have enough bat speed... wondering if that concern is manifesting itself now that he's in AAA.

Also discouraging is a lack of progress vs lefthanders, against whom he struggles.

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I don't think we are, necessarily, disagreeing here. I said "worthless" as a stand alone (or that's what I meant to say). Combined with other variables, like exit velo and LD%, then BABIP could be a valuable predictor.

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Saw he came out early for a pinch runner on an infield single. Assume some sort of leg issue?

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rotoworld's saying 2-3 weeks. gotta assume he's 100% down until after super-2 now.

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rotoworld's saying 2-3 weeks. gotta assume he's 100% down until after super-2 now.

this might be getting too "bench-coachy", but i think if you're in a redraft league and you need the roster spot, you can feel ok with dropping him.

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Well, this sucks. Too bad we're not allowed to DL him in fantasy :lol: but gives them the excuse to have him down till super 2 for sure now anyway.

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