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AJ Reed - 1B HOU

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12 hours ago, Jericho said:

I still like Reed long-term. He needs to make adjustments and hopefully he can. The knock on him is that he's a big dude with a long swing. And that got exploited last year. But he's hit everywhere, so I tend to believe he can make those adjustments given enough reps and time. The problem in the short-term is playing time. However, both 1B and DH aren't very solid for Houston, so I think this situation will sort itself out. It's basically wait and see with Reed and see when he can get at bats

Are you talking this year or long term? I'm at least expecting both Beltran (DH) and Gurriel (1B) to be solid for Houston this year. 

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I expect Beltran to be good, but hes older and a DL stint or two wouldn't shock me.  Gurriel I'm not sold on.  He wasn't good last year in an admittedly small sample.  Hes also no spring chicken at 32.

 

I was all in on Reed so watching him struggle like he did was tough on my fantasy teams.  Thankfully I wasn't relying on him.  Hes still only 23 and I hope he gets another shot this year.  He could also be part of a package to land a big arm that HOU will likely be targetting.

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11 hours ago, jctexan said:

Are you talking this year or long term? I'm at least expecting both Beltran (DH) and Gurriel (1B) to be solid for Houston this year. 

 

I think he'll at last have an opportunity this year. How he produces remains to be seen. He could make the most of it and have value. Or maybe not, maybe he's Chris Davis and takes a while. I do think he'll have his short this year and I'm less optimistic than you of seeing both Gurriel and Beltran stay healthy and productive this year. And if you really wanted to push it, it's possible to shirt Beltran to the OF if Reddick or Aoki get hurt/struggle

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Best scenario for Reed IMHO is Yuli, Carlos and AJ rake all year. He gets his cup of coffee when rosters expand and is a meaningful, mean bat off the bench for a deep run. Let him relax and play ball, good things will happen.

 

Spending my redraft fliers on guys like Kiermaier, Castellanos, KFP.

 

Weirdly I'm picking him off waivers in more than one dynasty league -places where he was too pricey last spring. It's great! Next season: Haniger. 

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Just week 1 but overall Yuli and Bregman haven't shown much. Beltran has been hitting but nothing spectacular. 

 

Just waiting for an opportunity...

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AJ Reed looks pretty good so far. I just read he has about 38 AB's , 2 homeruns, 6 RBI. His does have 12-13 strikeouts but he has taken 10 walks. His average was .240 ish with an OBP of almost .400

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I think the real question with Reed is how long a leash they give Gouriel.  I think Reed can adjust, but there's just no place to play right now. 

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I never liked the 5 year contract they gave the aging Gurriel at all given his lack of proven ability to hit MLB level pitching coupled with 1B not being his natural position. I thought the organization had plenty of existing depth in Reed, Moran, Gonzalez and even Tyler White to try out before spending recklessly at the position. They also had plenty of depth to trade for a for more proven veteran 1B type if any of those individuals didn't work out (i.e. Votto, Abreu, Adrian Gonzalez,). Instead, it's very possible that Gurriel becomes an instant sunk cost of close to $50 Million.

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On 3/29/2017 at 6:38 PM, brockpapersizer said:

I think Gurriel might be actually good, which complicates things for Reed... especially since they paid him too. I still like Reed long term.

 

Guriel has a better OPS in the majors than Reed in AAA. Without an injury, and possibly 2, I don't see him getting the call. 

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5 hours ago, motown magic said:

Reed isn't doing anything in the minors to help his cause. An injury or he'll be in the minors until Sept.

 

... unless he starts homering in every third at-bat. shouldn't just assume his performance level will stay like this

 

in 2015, that huge season that put him on the map, he hit .208/.356/.417 in april in high-A. started slow and then heated up in AAA last year too, and also obviously started slow in the majors. judging from all that he may just be a takes-time-to-get-up-to-speed kind of a guy

 

 

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I just checked in on AJ and there isn't much happening. He's hitting .282 with a .400 OBP which is good but he has 4 homeruns in 110 AB's. Still on pace for close to 20 but for a guy that supposedly has power and playing in the PCL I expected more. I got caught up in the hype and drafted him ahead of a few guys I liked more but were a lot younger. I figured AJ would have been a regular Major Leaguer by now. Last year at Fresno he hit 15 homers in 261 AB's. 

You mad bro? As a matter of fact I am! 

Come on AJ, hit the ball over the fence!

Edited by Under500Forever

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12 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

He'll probably have to be traded to find himself in the show. 

 

At this point that's the only way unless he spends the next 4 years in the minors. They signed a bunch of guys this offseason and that blocked AJ everywhere. 

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How are you guys feeling about AJR almost halfway through the season? His strikeout rate this year is about 33% (70 in 210 AB's) and he does have about 30 walks. He's hitting .250/.340 so far but he does have 3 homeruns in his last 7-8 games. He is blocked all around and might be for a long time unless he gets traded. Is he having trouble with offspeed/breaking pitches? Still 24 years old but the hype was insane 2-3 years ago and now it's crickets. 

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Hes not hitting for the kind of power to justify the high K rate.  A .780 OPS isn't going to force the issue.  HOU is arguably the best team in baseball, so hes going to need a change of scenery to get another opportunity, barring injury.

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22 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

How are you guys feeling about AJR almost halfway through the season? His strikeout rate this year is about 33% (70 in 210 AB's) and he does have about 30 walks. He's hitting .250/.340 so far but he does have 3 homeruns in his last 7-8 games. He is blocked all around and might be for a long time unless he gets traded. Is he having trouble with offspeed/breaking pitches? Still 24 years old but the hype was insane 2-3 years ago and now it's crickets. 

 

Hype was only really insane after 2015 season. I managed to trade him in a dynasty this off-season.

 

Yordan Alvarez is quickly gaining steam as the future Astros 1b prospect too. Further away of course.

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31 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Hype was only really insane after 2015 season. I managed to trade him in a dynasty this off-season.

 

Yordan Alvarez is quickly gaining steam as the future Astros 1b prospect too. Further away of course.

He sure was hyped up back then. 

The Astros haven't been the type of organization to block prospects, IMO. They generally get their young players PT, especially when they force the issue. Just my opinion, but it has nothing to do with the Astros and everything to do with Reed. If he was mashing he would be finding at-bats in Houston. But, he isn't, so he in the minors until he does something about it. Change of scenery isn't going to change the fact that he hasn't proven himself ready for the MLB. 
I believe he adjusted his mechanics over the off-season, and sometimes it takes a while for those adjustments to feel natural. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Hype was only really insane after 2015 season. I managed to trade him in a dynasty this off-season.

 

Yordan Alvarez is quickly gaining steam as the future Astros 1b prospect too. Further away of course.

 

What were you able to get for him? It's to late for me to trade him now but I'm just curious. 

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26 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

He sure was hyped up back then. 

The Astros haven't been the type of organization to block prospects, IMO. They generally get their young players PT, especially when they force the issue. Just my opinion, but it has nothing to do with the Astros and everything to do with Reed. If he was mashing he would be finding at-bats in Houston. But, he isn't, so he in the minors until he does something about it. Change of scenery isn't going to change the fact that he hasn't proven himself ready for the MLB. 
I believe he adjusted his mechanics over the off-season, and sometimes it takes a while for those adjustments to feel natural. 

 

Why would he make adjustments after he hit 34 homers a couple of years ago? I wish I could dump this crumb bum though. He needs to gain a few more pounds and get back his old swing. 

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8 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Why would he make adjustments after he hit 34 homers a couple of years ago? I wish I could dump this crumb bum though. He needs to gain a few more pounds and get back his old swing. 

I'm just guessing because he was a 22 year old mashing A ball two years ago and since then has been exposed a bit at higher levels of the minor leagues/MLB. Just a guess, but when you are struggling in the MLB I don't think it matters much what you did at A ball the year before. 

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8 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Why would he make adjustments after he hit 34 homers a couple of years ago? I wish I could dump this crumb bum though. He needs to gain a few more pounds and get back his old swing. 

 

I believe he dìd that at one of the more friendlier home fields in minor league ball.  Hasn't done anything since to justify those numbers as legitimate.

Edited by knuckleheads

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10 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

 

What were you able to get for him? It's to late for me to trade him now but I'm just curious. 

 

Probably wouldn't help you because of my weird league format. But I got Strasburg in the off-season for for cost controlled Reed and 2nd round minor league pick. It's looking like an amazing trade for me now, but Strasburg ain't cheap.

 

 

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Seems to be heating up a little bit.

hit his 9th homerun last night. That's 3 in his last 10 games or so. 

 

9 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

I believe he dìd that at one of the more friendlier home fields in minor league ball.  Hasn't done anything since to justify those numbers as legitimate.

 

I remember that in High A but I thought he kept hitting well at AA. 

 

7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Probably wouldn't help you because of my weird league format. But I got Strasburg in the off-season for for cost controlled Reed and 2nd round minor league pick. It's looking like an amazing trade for me now, but Strasburg ain't cheap.

 

 

 

If I could get a bologna sandwich for AJR I would take it in a heartbeat 

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