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Dreams And Dwightmares

FAAB - Waiver Wire Thread

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Another reason to

I think James Jones is around 10% if you are going for depth; 20% if you lost a guy like Dez to injury or a flex RB spot to injury.

I think anything less than 10% is not competitive for Jones, and anything more than 20% really hurts one's ability to gun for that essential RB FAAB pick mid season.

Honestly, even if I am stacked at WR, I still pick up James Jones for at least 20% of my budget. Here's why...

You can unstack your stacked WR group and pickup help in another spot and you have James Jones on your roster for depth (or you can offer him up for trade).

You don't want any FAAB left by the end of the season because it does absolutely nothing to help secure a playoff spot and win you the season. I looked back at my league and only 2 teams had spent their entire FAAB, 6 more had less than $10 of $150 at the end of the season, and most of the people at the bottom had a lot of money left. Why didn't they blow their loads on a player like Jeremy Hill or CJ Anderson? By the time those players broke out, they were already on someone elses bench for far less than big FAAB $$$

And keep another team from getting him. A desperate Dez owner is going to throw some $$$ at him so why not make a fair play for him. Always improve your bench. You're getting hit with the injury bug at some point.

No disagreements with either of your points, and those are perfectly valid reasons to snag a guy like James Jones right now. He's already picked up in all my leagues, but for those considering putting FAAB for him, 20% seems fair.

I think wide receivers are easier to predict breakouts in general compared to running backs, and thus saavy owners should often be able to snag those WRs for pennies preceding their breakout (personal examples: I got Keenan Allen in 2013, Odell Beckham Jr in 2014, and James Jones a week ago for something like 1-2% of my FAAB).

Conversely, RBs tend to be harder to anticipate, especially because injuries are more common, and there is a more linear path to touches / hierarchy, meaning when the starter goes down, the back-up/handcuff becomes the starter, whereas even lower-end WRs still are often in the rotation for a little prior to getting a promotion or other type of enhanced opportunity.

Finally, lots of people are embracing zero RB. I am one of these guys in both my FAAB leagues. So I'm absolutely planning on blowing my budget when a potential lottery ticket emerges. Take CJ Anderson for example: tons of opportunity, great offense, history of RBs getting run out of their starting gig every year. I drafted Hillman in all my leagues, but if CJ DOES get injured or its announced he loses his starting role at any point, I'm aggressively bidding on Juwan Thompson; but there's no way I'm stashing TWO Denver back-ups on my bench for most of the year.

So yes, one must be aggressive early in FAAB, and make sure to spend all their dollars by end of season, and yes, 20% on a guy like James Jones this week is logical. Personally, I prioritize spending most of my FAAB on the RB position, which is more volatile and harder to anticipate pick-ups, meaning bidding often occurs after (rather than before) news breaks making them a hot pick-up.

I hope my logic makes sense to you.

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30-40%?? really? DANG! I mean what do people do the remaining 16 weeks of the season? Are a lot of people broke after week 6?

We've done FAAB for 3 or 4 years now and what I noticed at least early on was the opposite. People were too conservative. A lot of people went into the last month of the year with a ton of FAAB left. Now that we've done it awhile people spend more early on because we're more comfortable with it. If this is your league's first year doing it my advice is be aggressive. You can probably score some good adds while your league mates try to get a feel for how it works. That said there's no one this week I'd spend 30-40% on

You are asking me to spend 40% on Moncrief and I might do it.

Seems crazy considering Hilton is day-to-day...

His appeal isn't as much about Hilton as it is about Andre Johnson.

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Do we really think that James Jones will be the savior for everybody this year? Yes, he is a red zone magnet and he has good rapport with Rodgers. But isn't this the guy who got cut from the Raiders and the Giants. He can't separate off the line and his best years are behind him. I'm not sure if I would spend a huge chunk of my budget for him. I'd probably throw more money towards Moncrief than Jones.

But the thing obviously is, you never know. In FAAB, the difference is you have to place value on your claim. With a rolling waiver or first come first serve, sure, picking up Jones is a no brainer. But with FAAB, you have to decide if he is worth x amount of dollars. Nobody knows. Save your money throughout the year, nobody may come up worthy of a big splurge. Spend it all on the week 1 flavor of the week, and he could become Kevin Ogletree. Or you might strike gold and he'll become Justin Forsett.

I tend not to be very aggressive in the beginning of the season. Hopefully you know what you're doing and you've drafted a pretty decent team. As one of the comments above said, if you're looking to tinker here and there, sure, throw in a few small bids for Jones or Moncrief. If you get them, great. If not, then be happy with the WR4 or 5 that you've drafted and see what develops. But if you've just lost Dez and now your starting WRs are Kamar Aiken and Devin Funchess, yeah, you may be in trouble and you'll need to bid more aggressively to help you be competitive now.

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I like this thread but am not sure I agree with the concept of it.

The only thing that really matters is how much some other owner in your league is willing to spend each week. Its a highly specific query and not really something that can meaningfully address the masses.

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I like this thread but am not sure I agree with the concept of it.

The only thing that really matters is how much some other owner in your league is willing to spend each week. Its a highly specific query and not really something that can meaningfully address the masses.

Yes, but it is definitely useful to get a gauge on what others are thinking in terms of value.

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Do we really think that James Jones will be the savior for everybody this year? Yes, he is a red zone magnet and he has good rapport with Rodgers. But isn't this the guy who got cut from the Raiders and the Giants. He can't separate off the line and his best years are behind him. I'm not sure if I would spend a huge chunk of my budget for him. I'd probably throw more money towards Moncrief than Jones.

But the thing obviously is, you never know. In FAAB, the difference is you have to place value on your claim. With a rolling waiver or first come first serve, sure, picking up Jones is a no brainer. But with FAAB, you have to decide if he is worth x amount of dollars. Nobody knows. Save your money throughout the year, nobody may come up worthy of a big splurge. Spend it all on the week 1 flavor of the week, and he could become Kevin Ogletree. Or you might strike gold and he'll become Justin Forsett.

I tend not to be very aggressive in the beginning of the season. Hopefully you know what you're doing and you've drafted a pretty decent team. As one of the comments above said, if you're looking to tinker here and there, sure, throw in a few small bids for Jones or Moncrief. If you get them, great. If not, then be happy with the WR4 or 5 that you've drafted and see what develops. But if you've just lost Dez and now your starting WRs are Kamar Aiken and Devin Funchess, yeah, you may be in trouble and you'll need to bid more aggressively to help you be competitive now.

Honestly, 20-30% isn't a big splurge for a solid player.

Yes, he was cut by Giants and Raiders, but this is from the JJ thread....

3 WRs are on the field all the time. Who the "numbers 1, 2 or 3" are is dictated by who's open. Today, it was Jones.

The raiders cut Jones for money purposes after a decent year last year. The giants cut him because he wasn't a fit for them as they were stacked at WR (or so my giants fan friend tells me), and again not really due to production.

He isn't the #1 WR in GB after a 2 TD game but he is going to be a solid lock on rosters that probably need WR help.

If I didn't already own Jones as a speculative add from my draft, I would've been putting money down to scoop him up this week. I would've put at least $22 / $150 which would've been 14% of my budget but it could've gone higher depending on the news that comes out between now and WW processing on Tuesday/Wednesday.

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I think spending a good bit on jones makes sense. Think about this: jones was picked by GB days ago, and was still a RZ target for Rodgers. I don't see that as a fluke. So 30 percent doesn't seem like a sketch at all.

As for Moncrief, I don't see this as just a Hilton hedge. I see it as an AJ hedge. He looked slow yesterday. Not hard to imagine Moncrief out scoring AJ this year.

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Thoughts???

14 Team PPR, $100 FAAB

Lost Dez, only other WR on roster is Mike Crabtree..

How much FAAB do you blow on James Jones??

And.

Who is your secound and thrid guys?

2. Moncrief

3. Harvin

4. Beasley

??

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Sigmund Bloom from FBG does a lot with FAAB percentages. His suggestion was 50 percent of your budget on Moncrief and/or 20-30 percent on James Jones.

Sorry man, I quoted you on the wrong thing when I asked that question earlier. This is what I was asking where did you get that information. Does he just randomly post things on Twitter about it or is it all put somewhere like a website?

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I'm expecting Jones to go for around 50 bucks in the league he's on waivers.

I'll pass at that price though.

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Thoughts???

14 Team PPR, $100 FAAB

Lost Dez, only other WR on roster is Mike Crabtree..

How much FAAB do you blow on James Jones??

And.

Who is your secound and thrid guys?

2. Moncrief

3. Harvin

4. Beasley

??

I'd say 30 percent on Jones? And my order for the others:

Harvin

Beasley

Moncrief

I can see switching Beasley and Moncrief but I think Harvin is a nice safety valve for Taylor. In fact, I might go after him while everyone else goes for Jones.

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Thoughts???

14 Team PPR, $100 FAAB

Lost Dez, only other WR on roster is Mike Crabtree..

How much FAAB do you blow on James Jones??

And.

Who is your secound and thrid guys?

2. Moncrief

3. Harvin

4. Beasley

??

Please try to not be team specific. Too many posts like this and the thread gets shut down, which would be horrible. Completely avoidable though if we just leave out roster specific stuff. Then we get to keep this awesome thread.

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Thoughts???

14 Team PPR, $100 FAAB

Lost Dez, only other WR on roster is Mike Crabtree..

How much FAAB do you blow on James Jones??

And.

Who is your secound and thrid guys?

2. Moncrief

3. Harvin

4. Beasley

??

I'd say 30 percent on Jones? And my order for the others:

Harvin

Beasley

Moncrief

I can see switching Beasley and Moncrief but I think Harvin is a nice safety valve for Taylor. In fact, I might go after him while everyone else goes for Jones.

I'd think Moncreif > Jones

I am going for 20% Moncreif and 10% Jones

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How much are people willing to pay for Benny Cunningham and Dion Lewis?

5%? 10%?

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How much are people willing to pay for Benny Cunningham and Dion Lewis?

5%? 10%?

I wouldn't pay anything for Cunningham unless you would start him next game. Lewis is interesting because I think he'll be valuable this season. 10 percent doesn't seem too high and maybe even 20 percent.

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How much are people willing to pay for Benny Cunningham and Dion Lewis?

5%? 10%?

I wouldn't put much on Dion Lewis unless you own Blount and need a starting RB. As for Benny Cunningham, only put a few bucks if you need a starter next week.

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Sigmund Bloom from FBG does a lot with FAAB percentages. His suggestion was 50 percent of your budget on Moncrief and/or 20-30 percent on James Jones.

Sorry man, I quoted you on the wrong thing when I asked that question earlier. This is what I was asking where did you get that information. Does he just randomly post things on Twitter about it or is it all put somewhere like a website?

He randomly posts tidbits like that on Twitter but I would imagine the same kind of info is available on the Football Guys site.

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Thoughts on Terrance Williams in leagues where he's unowned? Does he trump Jones?

Yes

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I was on mobile before, but now that I can copy and paste easily here are the tweets I was referring to...

We'll probably only see a few talent/situation/opportunity intersections this year on WW as good as Moncrief and JaJones. Bid accordingly.

Err on the side of spending your WW bucks when you see players that can help your team. Err on side of action over being conservative

Sigmund Bloom retweeted HBQ

WW report w %s coming out later today, but 40 or even 50 percent (or more) is not outlandish at all. Moncrief>Jones

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I like this thread but am not sure I agree with the concept of it.

The only thing that really matters is how much some other owner in your league is willing to spend each week. Its a highly specific query and not really something that can meaningfully address the masses.

Who cares about outlier bids? The point of this thread is to gauge how much of ones budget is a good risk to bet. If the posters here reach a consensus on a player like harvin at say 5%, and then some random owner in your league blows his entire budget on him, that does not in any way reduce the usefulness of this thread.

Obviously you will have to make your own adjustments based on which specific owners in your league had injuries, and on remaining budgets.

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Beasley could be a good add in PPRs too. I could see him getting a lot of targets with Dez out but maybe not getting big FAAB attention because he isn't an obvious Dez replacement. Maybe a 5% type value.

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Dion Lewis is really intriguing to me and I think the above estimates of 10-20% are reasonable in deep leagues. FAAB estimates are probably really league specific but if a guy is so obviously better than what else is out there, it should tell you a lot.

As for overall FAAB policy, I fall into the spend early camp. I want to get the difference maker when he has the most opportunity to make a difference and then once I've established a solid roster, use those last few roster spots for long term speculation once I start to get low on FAAB.

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