Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

pan55

#1 Waiver Wire pick , Keeper League

Recommended Posts

I'm in a 20 team Yahoo Keeper league. My six keepers this year are Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Chris B Young, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, and Francisco Liriano. I have a decent team and don't need a lot of help this year. I want to grab the best rookie call up, hopefully someone who is better than my current crop of keepers. BTW Longoria is already in Yahoo's data base even though he has not played a ML game. Anybody who played in a ML game last year will already be in the data base, so that rules out all September callups from 2007. So who do I wait for? I could grab Cueto at the start of the season or I could wait for Kershaw, Weiters, Price, Pearce, maybe T Snyder. Who is the call up who will be a stud in 2009 and beyond?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd go with Cueto or Kershaw. Kershaw is the one I'd personally want but grab Cueto since he'll for sure be added to the data base. It would suck to miss out on Cueto if Kershaw doesn't get a call-up this year. I'd keep both of them over Kendrick.

PS. I'm grabbing Cueto with my #1 claim for the exact reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im in the same position as you two are. My team is stacked in my 20 team league, so I want contribution ASAP. Thats why ill take Cueto and not risk it waiting for Kershaw...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm tentatively leaning towards passing on Cueto and waiting for Kershaw. Weiters interests me. Could Travis Snyder get a September call up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm in a 20 team Yahoo Keeper league. My six keepers this year are Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Chris B Young, Matt Kemp, Howie Kendrick, and Francisco Liriano. I have a decent team and don't need a lot of help this year. I want to grab the best rookie call up, hopefully someone who is better than my current crop of keepers. BTW Longoria is already in Yahoo's data base even though he has not played a ML game. Anybody who played in a ML game last year will already be in the data base, so that rules out all September callups from 2007. So who do I wait for? I could grab Cueto at the start of the season or I could wait for Kershaw, Weiters, Price, Pearce, maybe T Snyder. Who is the call up who will be a stud in 2009 and beyond?

Steve Pearce is in the Yahoo database already. I don't think anybody brought up this year will be better than your current 6 keepers. I would grab Cueto and hope for the best. Hopefully your waiver will move up by September

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm tentatively leaning towards passing on Cueto and waiting for Kershaw. Weiters interests me. Could Travis Snyder get a September call up?

I don't think Wieters or Snyder are going to get callups this season. I'd wait for Kershaw instead of taking Cueto...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snider might not even get called up until September next year...

But at this point, Kershaw seems a lock to be up at some poin, and i definetly rank him higher then Cueto.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Snider might not even get called up until September next year...

But at this point, Kershaw seems a lock to be up at some poin, and i definetly rank him higher then Cueto.

I'd wait it out and go Kershaw. The guy is out of this world. I think if you can wait it out til June or so he should be up I'm guessing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would wait on Kershaw if I were you. There is no way that Cueto is a keeper for your team, and with Dusty Baker as his manager, I wouldn't put a whole lot of faith in him...Dusty has a tendency to ruin young pitchers. Everything I am reading has Kershaw being a callup this year, and if he performs up to his potential he would be a better keeper than Liriano probably ... and definitely a keeper or a tradeable asset. Hope that helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for everyone's imput. I'll be waiting for that call up of Clayton Koufax Kershaw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for everyone's imput. I'll be waiting for that call up of Clayton Koufax Kershaw.

I ended up trading waiver wire slots with a guy who wanted Cueto. He got the #1 waiver pick and took Cueto with it. I recieved his #15 waiver slot and Dustin McGowan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Solid move!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't have done that. The #15 WW spot is pretty useless, and you just passed up on the chance to add a once in a decade pitcher in Kershaw, and instead got a decent middle of the rotation pitcher. I would have held off for Kershaw.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I wouldn't have done that. The #15 WW spot is pretty useless, and you just passed up on the chance to add a once in a decade pitcher in Kershaw, and instead got a decent middle of the rotation pitcher. I would have held off for Kershaw.

McGowan in my opinion is much better than a MOR pitcher. He is still young and just coming into his own. You COULD be right about Kershaw, but how many once in a "decade" pitchers never panned out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Before anyone discusses the merits of McGowan, two *crucial* questions - pan55, how long do guys hold on to the #1 waiver positions for? If everyone uses it fairly frequently, then you could trade the #1 WW position for #15 and have it come around back to you in June/July, when stud prospects like Kershaw *could* get the call - there's no clear timetable with these young guys (other than Longoria IMO, whose position is being held for him, while the others - Bruce & Rasmus - seem to have guys management likes for the entire year, don't ask me why).

And then the next question - pan55, since you have only 6 keepers, how many years can you keep 'em for once a minors guy is activated? 4 years? 5 years? Unlimited? That's a *huge* factor, because at 6 keepers, you pretty much *have* to be having your rookies be top 100 players to keep them. If you have 150-200 keepers, then it's *easy* to keep the high-potential rookies. But once you are at 100-120, it gets a *lot* dicier - if Liriano is healthy, then for 2008 your keeper list only has 1 guy I'd probably consider not keeping ahead of even Kershaw for 2009 (Kendrick, and it's at a dreaded scarce position), let alone 2008, and it's still close.

As great as Kershaw is (and I think he's going to be great *eventually*), it all depends on the keeper format - if you only get 'em for 4 years or less, you're probably getting 2-3 "developmental" years before they crush the league, and you're giving up 1 of only 6 keeper spots. If it's a *forever* league, then at least giving up the 6th keeper spot has some rationale, since you're building for the future - only in that scenario does holding onto the #1 WW spot make sense IMO, and even then, you're passing up chances to get *much better* for the *present* to build for the future - and pan55, if I were in your shoes, given that I don't even know *when* Kershaw is getting the call, or how much he'd help me this year or even next (most SP's need about 35-50 starts to break out, even the great ones) - I'd probably have done the same deal as you....and *I absolutely love* my prospects.

So, even before we debate the merits of McGowan, the makeup of the league keeper system (especially the maximum duration you can keep 'em once they're on your MLB roster) will greatly influence the decision to hang on to the #1 WW spot for a guy who we have *no idea* when he'll get called up. Then, when you throw in the fact that a *potential* top 25 SP is being offered for the *whole* season, it's a clear winner IMO this year to go for it - the only key is that the team in question who is making the deal isn't in full rebuilding mode. Otherwise, if a team has aspirations for the crown, then trading in the #1 WW pick to get an asset who can clearly help you win this year, well it's perfectly reasonable IMO. Could it backfire if Kershaw is lights out? Of course, but the chances of that happening *this year* are so small that the present day scenario favors the McGowan side by a wide margin - and if it's to go for it this year, then take the deal, and hope that in 2009 or 2010 (more likely 2010 IMO) you have a 2008 crown to look at when you watch Kershaw pitch - because it will have been worth it, even if Kershaw ends up being Clayton Koufax down the road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Before anyone discusses the merits of McGowan, two *crucial* question - pan55, how long do guys hold on to the #1 waiver positions for? If everyone uses it fairly frequently, then you could trade the #1 WW position for #15 and have it come around back to you in June/July, when stud prospects like Kershaw *could* get the call - there's no clear timetable with these young guys (other than Longoria IMO, whose position is being held for him, while the others - Bruce & Rasmus - seem to have guys management likes for the entire year, don't ask me why).

And then the next question - pan55, since you have only 6 keepers, how many years can you keep 'em for once a minors guy is activated? 4 years? 5 years? Unlimited? That's a *huge* factor, because at 6 keepers, you pretty much *have* to be having your rookies be top 100 players to keep them. If you have 150-200 keepers, then it's *easy* to keep the high-potential rookies. But once you are at 100-120, it gets a *lot* dicier - if Liriano is healthy, then for 2008 your keeper list only has 1 guy I'd probably consider not keeping ahead of even Kershaw for 2009 (Kendrick, and it's at a dreaded scarce position), let alone 2008, and it's still close.

As great as Kershaw is (and I think he's going to be great *eventually*), it all depends on the keeper format - if you only get 'em for 4 years or less, you're probably getting 2-3 "developmental" years before they crush the league, and you're giving up 1 of only 6 keeper spots. If it's a *forever* league, then at least giving up the 6th keeper spot has some rationale, since you're building for the future - only in that scenario does holding onto the #1 WW spot make sense IMO, and even then, you're passing up chances to get *much better* for the *present* to build for the future - and pan55, if I were in your shoes, given that I don't even know *when* Kershaw is getting the call, or how much he'd help me this year or even next (most SP's need about 35-50 starts to break out, even the great ones) - I'd probably have done the same deal as you....and *I absolutely love* my prospects.

So, even before we debate the merits of McGowan, the makeup of the league keeper system (especially the maximum duration you can keep 'em once they're on your MLB roster) will greatly influence the decision to hang on to the #1 WW spot for a guy who we have *no idea* when he'll get called up. Then, when you throw in the fact that a *potential* top 25 SP is being offered for the *whole* season, it's a clear winner IMO this year to go for it - the only key is that the team in question who is making the deal isn't in full rebuilding mode. Otherwise, if a team has aspirations for the crown, then trading in the #1 WW pick to get an asset who can clearly help you win this year, well it's perfectly reasonable IMO. Could it backfire if Kershaw is lights out? Of course, but the chances of that happening *this year* are so small that the present day scenario favors the McGowan side by a wide margin - and if it's to go for it this year, then take the deal, and hope that in 2009 or 2010 (more likely 2010 IMO) you have a 2008 crown to look at when you watch Kershaw pitch - because it will have been worth it, even if Kershaw ends up being Clayton Koufax down the road.

Thanks RotoBronco for your input. Keepers are forever. I've placed my team in question into my sig. Given a 20 team league I have pretty solid keepers. Cabrera(25), Tex(28), CBYoung(25), and Kemp(24) are probably keeper locks. Kendrick(25), Liriano(25), Hermida(24), Street(25), Drew(25), McGowan(26), Broxton(24) and Steve Pearce(25) are all potential candidates for the last two keeper spots. All my players are relatively young with Teixeira being the old man at 28. I think that this team can challenge for the title with McGowan's help. Each year's draft is a snake draft with the draft order the reverse of the previous year's finish. The waiver wire slot also resets each year. The team who drafts last gets the #1 waiver wire slot. So if I can parlay the addition of McGowan into a high finish, then I will also have a a very desirable waiver slot next year.

Kershaw appears to have a great future, but the Dodgers seem to want to really limit his innings for the next 2 or 3 years. I'll gladly take a full season of McGowan and take my 6 best keepers into next year. Hopefully I'll be in the same positon next year with a top waiver wire pick and a chance to grab the next "once in a decade" player.

p.s. The next player in line will wait for Kershaw. We don't have a minor league draft, so as prospects come up waiver claims are made. I won't get Kershaw, but I'll get a decent waiver player before the year is out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.