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Schwager

2016 Sleeper Prospects (Non-Top 50 Prospects)

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***original premise: not top 100, maybe top 50 in '17***

This thread morphed from sleepers to deep sleepers...

I don't think it would make much sense to separate "sleepers" and "deep sleepers" into two different threads, since the "deepness" (for the lack of a better word) of a sleeper is quite subjective.

I guess if you want to keep things organized, touts could be done in a format like:

Prospect Name:

Position:

Current Value (Top 100 prospect, Top 10 Prospect for his Team, etc.):

Potential Value (Top 5 prospect, Utility player, All-star, etc):

ETA:

Reasons for Optimism:

It would be a nice way to keep things organized and it gives the reader a better understanding of why a prospect might be worth acquiring.

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***original premise: not top 100, maybe top 50 in '17***

This thread morphed from sleepers to deep sleepers...

I don't think it would make much sense to separate "sleepers" and "deep sleepers" into two different threads, since the "deepness" (for the lack of a better word) of a sleeper is quite subjective.

I guess if you want to keep things organized, touts could be done in a format like:

Prospect Name:

Position:

Current Value (Top 100 prospect, Top 10 Prospect for his Team, etc.):

Potential Value (Top 5 prospect, Utility player, All-star, etc):

ETA:

Reasons for Optimism:

It would be a nice way to keep things organized and it gives the reader a better understanding of why a prospect might be worth acquiring.

There is a Sleeper & Deep Sleeper thread in Mlb forum. Deep sleepers were supposed to be ADP 400+ as outlined in the OP. Regular sleepers are supposed to be '14 AJ Pollock --> '15 Pollock. The title of this thread was doomed from the start (non-top 50), when lists go from 100-175.

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Some guys to keep in mind:


Prospect Name: Demi Orimoloye

Position: OF

Age: 19

Highest Minor League Level: Rookie (Arizona League)

Current Value (Top 100 prospect, Top 10 Prospect for his Team, etc.): Top 10-15 prospect for the Brewers ("Just outside of the top 10" on BA, #14 on MLB Pipeline, and in the "Five who are just interesting" category on BP's list)

Potential Value (Top 5 prospect, Utility player, All-star, etc): All-star who could be able to 20/20 is an optimistic ceiling. Could be an impact regular if he doesn't reach that.

ETA: 2019 (at least)

Reasons for Optimism:

  • Good physical build; He's 6'4" and 225 lbs and turned 19 years old in early January.
  • "There are three 60 tools here in his power, speed, and arm," (BP's Brewers Top 10)
  • Hit .292 with an .838 OPS, six home runs and 19 steals in 33 rookie ball games.

Why isn't he ranked higher?:

  • His commitment to play for Oregon plummeted his draft stock, leading him to become a 4th round pick in the draft. He's still a bit unknown.
  • He's a pretty raw prospect and his ETA is far away.
  • "his swing mechanics can break down at times." (Kiley McDaniel in his pre-draft report for 2015 MLB draft prospects on Fangraphs)
  • Only batted .111 in 18 ABs against lefties compared to .319 in 119 ABs against righties.


Prospect Name: Kevin Newman

Position: SS

Age: 22

Highest Level: A (Full Season) (South Atlantic League)

Current Value (Top 100 prospect, Top 10 Prospect for his Team, etc.): Top 10 Prospect for the Pirates (#8 BA, #11 MLB Pipeline, #4 BP)

Potential Value (Top 5 prospect, Utility player, All-star, etc): Above average regular at SS or 2B.

ETA: 2017-18

Reasons for Optimism:

  • "Second toughest college hitter in the draft class to strike out" according to Keith Law (behind Donnie Dewees)
  • 60 hit tool according to MLB Pipeline, 65 according to BP.
  • Should have above average speed. MLB pipeline grades him at a 55 and BP grades him as 50+
  • Started off slow in Short Season A with a .226 BA in 159 ABs. Improved to a .306 BA in 98 ABs after being promoted to Full Season A.

Why isn't he ranked higher?:

  • "has a swing that emphasizes contact and allows almost no power" (Kiley McDaniel in his pre-draft report for 2015 MLB draft prospects on Fangraphs)
  • Will need to narrow his stance if he wants to reach his 10-12 HR ceiling, according to Law.
  • After being promoted to Full Season A, his OBP (.376) was higher than his Slugging Percentage (.367)
  • Has a "lack of upper body strength and minimal weight transfer" (BP's Pirates top 10)
  • It's debatable whether he'll stick at SS or move to 2B. It seems that, for now, he's staying at short.

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Yeah, I like Demi and Newmann a decent amount too. Newmann kinda reminds me of the Duffy/Panik/M. Carpenter contact oriented, gamer mold. He's super polished and Demi's more the guy to dream on. Finding the next Victor Robles is a coup for dynasty leagues and Demi's on my list of possibilities.

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Sandy Alcantra, SP, STL

Oscar de la Rosa, SP CHC

Kolby Allard, SP ATL (not sure where or if he's on lists right now)

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5th rounder Brandon Belt out of Texas probably never would have had a thread made for him in this forum in 2010 until maybe August/September. But I know Giants' fans are now watching 6th rounder Steve Duggar out of Clemson to see where this goes after his fast start.

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Isan Diaz (should be in the top 50 in my eyes, as he is clearly better than Brendan Rodgers)

Travis Demeritte (wow what a start, lot of swing & miss but oh boy that power speed combo at 2B, looking Alfonso Soriano-esq)

Stone Garrett (big time power, has yet to play this season)

Willie Calhoun (may get moved to corner OF but this guy has done nothing but hit, off to a slow start but keep an eye out)

Bobby Bradley (Not sure there's a better hitter his age or younger)

Vlad Guerrero Jr (Lots of potential here still far away)

Mike Zunino (does he fit here?)

Bubba Derby (slipped in the draft due to durability concerns. Off to a solid start even though his last start wasn't stellar)

Logan Allen (looks a lot like Jon Lester, small sample but 30.33 pro innings and he's still 18 with a 1.50 ERA)

Lewis Thorpe (will return from Tommy John in May, this Aussie when healthy was striking everyone out)

Danny Hultzen (health and durability issues at the pro level. But horsed out 320 college innings. If he can get healthy could be huge)

If someone in your keeper league owns James Paxton pick up Danny Hultzen just in case.

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For deep deep leagues..

Enyel De Los Santos, SP - SDP - Pitching prospect that has pretty big upside.. Always have to like pitching prospects in Petco..

Chris Flexen, SP - NYM - Mentioned before in the thread, but has a chance to really break out this year..

Chase Ingram, SP - NYM - has looked great early on..

Estevan Florial, OF - NYY - Huge tools, will be interesting to see how his stateside debut goes this year..

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Add Kyle Garlick to this list ... 4 year college player a bit old for his level but has hit with very strong numbers everywhere so far as a pro. He had a hat trick last night too.

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Jordan Patterson, OF/1B - Colorado

Currently tearing it up in AAA. Grand slam in his first at bat tonight brings his avg up to .386. I'm liking the 9 BBs to 7Ks as well.

Not a highly rated prospect, but as we're seeing with Trevor Story, you can never count out Rockies prospects. I could see Dickerson type potential here.

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For deep deep leagues..

Enyel De Los Santos, SP - SDP - Pitching prospect that has pretty big upside.. Always have to like pitching prospects in Petco..

Chris Flexen, SP - NYM - Mentioned before in the thread, but has a chance to really break out this year..

Chase Ingram, SP - NYM - has looked great early on..

Estevan Florial, OF - NYY - Huge tools, will be interesting to see how his stateside debut goes this year..

When I looked up Enyel De Los Santos, SP, on CBS, they showed he pitches for Seattle, is this the same guy ?

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Isan Diaz (should be in the top 50 in my eyes, as he is clearly better than Brendan Rodgers)

Travis Demeritte (wow what a start, lot of swing & miss but oh boy that power speed combo at 2B, looking Alfonso Soriano-esq)

Stone Garrett (big time power, has yet to play this season)

Willie Calhoun (may get moved to corner OF but this guy has done nothing but hit, off to a slow start but keep an eye out)

Bobby Bradley (Not sure there's a better hitter his age or younger)

Vlad Guerrero Jr (Lots of potential here still far away)

Mike Zunino (does he fit here?)

Bubba Derby (slipped in the draft due to durability concerns. Off to a solid start even though his last start wasn't stellar)

Logan Allen (looks a lot like Jon Lester, small sample but 30.33 pro innings and he's still 18 with a 1.50 ERA)

Lewis Thorpe (will return from Tommy John in May, this Aussie when healthy was striking everyone out)

Danny Hultzen (health and durability issues at the pro level. But horsed out 320 college innings. If he can get healthy could be huge)

If someone in your keeper league owns James Paxton pick up Danny Hultzen just in case.

Hultzen was recently shut down, is being converted to a reliever and I've even heard whispering he might retire

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Isan Diaz (should be in the top 50 in my eyes, as he is clearly better than Brendan Rodgers)

Travis Demeritte (wow what a start, lot of swing & miss but oh boy that power speed combo at 2B, looking Alfonso Soriano-esq)

Stone Garrett (big time power, has yet to play this season)

Willie Calhoun (may get moved to corner OF but this guy has done nothing but hit, off to a slow start but keep an eye out)

Bobby Bradley (Not sure there's a better hitter his age or younger)

Vlad Guerrero Jr (Lots of potential here still far away)

Mike Zunino (does he fit here?)

Bubba Derby (slipped in the draft due to durability concerns. Off to a solid start even though his last start wasn't stellar)

Logan Allen (looks a lot like Jon Lester, small sample but 30.33 pro innings and he's still 18 with a 1.50 ERA)

Lewis Thorpe (will return from Tommy John in May, this Aussie when healthy was striking everyone out)

Danny Hultzen (health and durability issues at the pro level. But horsed out 320 college innings. If he can get healthy could be huge)

If someone in your keeper league owns James Paxton pick up Danny Hultzen just in case.

Hultzen was recently shut down, is being converted to a reliever and I've even heard whispering he might retire

But other than that, he's great!

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5th rounder Brandon Belt out of Texas probably never would have had a thread made for him in this forum in 2010 until maybe August/September. But I know Giants' fans are now watching 6th rounder Steve Duggar out of Clemson to see where this goes after his fast start.

#6 on BA hot sheet

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-april-22-blairs-big-week/#F4be4vCb8uS7dpIw.97

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Rookie Davis SP Cincinnati

Built to be a workhorse @ 6-5 and 245 lbs

Off to a solid start this seaon, last year put up 129 Ks in 130 IP with only 26 BB.

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Rookie Davis SP Cincinnati

Built to be a workhorse @ 6-5 and 245 lbs

Off to a solid start this seaon, last year put up 129 Ks in 130 IP with only 26 BB.

i bet he can't wait to make the majors so that for the first time in his life his name will finally be accurate

here are some of the guys i've zeroed in on in the early going. i tend to go for somewhat weird, offbeat and post-hype guys... i also like bats

Tommy Joseph, 1B PHI (AAA)

was a reasonably big deal a few years back as a catcher in the giants system. traded to philly for hunter pence. then lost the last few years to concussions. 1B only now. but hitting like a bastard so far in AAA. very early going. but he seems to be healthy. and if you look back at his track record, before the concussions, he was doing some great things with the bat. especially when you look at his age. he was in high-A as a 19 year old, hitting for power without striking out a lot. that's insane. yes it was the california league but he was at san jose, which is one of the least hitty parks there. 1B in philly should be open after this year. i mean it's really open right now, but howard has tenure. if joseph keeps hitting he could be called up to replace ruf in the weak side of the platoon later in the year, as he's a RHH. could all fall apart next week but this is my favorite one right now.

Albert Almora, OF CHC (AAA)

still a big name but seems like everyone's cooled on him. had a crazy august last year in AA, now hitting over .300 with a solid walk rate in his first few weeks in AAA. only 22 years old, the only younger player in AAA is (was) mazara. has always made good contact and the defense is unquestioned, if he can walk (and his walk rate has been improving steadily every since everybody buried him for having a 2% BB% as a 20-year-old in AA) and hit for doubles power he should be a pretty good player pretty soon. caveat, probably not in a massively fantasy-sexy way. probably no big HR or SB numbers. but should hit for a good average in a good cubs lineup.

Ronald Guzman, 1B TEX (AA)

was a big deal along with mazara when both were signed for big money a few years ago. by now everyone has decided (understandably, and correctly) that mazara is the guy, and kind of moved on from guzman. but he's still real young for AA (21) and is hitting well to start the year. the controversial fangraphs prospect guy (who i personally like a lot) rated him #7 in the (strong) rangers system before the season, saying guzman was his pick for a rangers prospect hitter breakout this year.

Hunter Dozier, 3B KC (AA)

another guy everyone's given up on. just going off the early numbers here. they're good. his third stab at the level but he's still only 24. not impossible he's figured it out. not sure of this one, no scouting tips or anything to back it up.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B KC (A+)

another pure numbers job. pretty much the best hitter in high-A so far. and he's in the carolina league, not the cali. 22 years old, neither good nor bad for the level. fangraphs guy liked him in the preseason too. strikes out a bit. if he keeps hitting he could slide into the DH slot in KC whenever they're done with kendrys in a year or two, if dozier doesn't.

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Rookie Davis SP Cincinnati

Built to be a workhorse @ 6-5 and 245 lbs

Off to a solid start this seaon, last year put up 129 Ks in 130 IP with only 26 BB.

i bet he can't wait to make the majors so that for the first time in his life his name will finally be accurate

here are some of the guys i've zeroed in on in the early going. i tend to go for somewhat weird, offbeat and post-hype guys... i also like bats

Tommy Joseph, 1B PHI (AAA)

was a reasonably big deal a few years back as a catcher in the giants system. traded to philly for hunter pence. then lost the last few years to concussions. 1B only now. but hitting like a bastard so far in AAA. very early going. but he seems to be healthy. and if you look back at his track record, before the concussions, he was doing some great things with the bat. especially when you look at his age. he was in high-A as a 19 year old, hitting for power without striking out a lot. that's insane. yes it was the california league but he was at san jose, which is one of the least hitty parks there. 1B in philly should be open after this year. i mean it's really open right now, but howard has tenure. if joseph keeps hitting he could be called up to replace ruf in the weak side of the platoon later in the year, as he's a RHH. could all fall apart next week but this is my favorite one right now.

Albert Almora, OF CHC (AAA)

still a big name but seems like everyone's cooled on him. had a crazy august last year in AA, now hitting over .300 with a solid walk rate in his first few weeks in AAA. only 22 years old, the only younger player in AAA is (was) mazara. has always made good contact and the defense is unquestioned, if he can walk (and his walk rate has been improving steadily every since everybody buried him for having a 2% BB% as a 20-year-old in AA) and hit for doubles power he should be a pretty good player pretty soon. caveat, probably not in a massively fantasy-sexy way. probably no big HR or SB numbers. but should hit for a good average in a good cubs lineup.

Ronald Guzman, 1B TEX (AA)

was a big deal along with mazara when both were signed for big money a few years ago. by now everyone has decided (understandably, and correctly) that mazara is the guy, and kind of moved on from guzman. but he's still real young for AA (21) and is hitting well to start the year. the controversial fangraphs prospect guy (who i personally like a lot) rated him #7 in the (strong) rangers system before the season, saying guzman was his pick for a rangers prospect hitter breakout this year.

Hunter Dozier, 3B KC (AA)

another guy everyone's given up on. just going off the early numbers here. they're good. his third stab at the level but he's still only 24. not impossible he's figured it out. not sure of this one, no scouting tips or anything to back it up.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B KC (A+)

another pure numbers job. pretty much the best hitter in high-A so far. and he's in the carolina league, not the cali. 22 years old, neither good nor bad for the level. fangraphs guy liked him in the preseason too. strikes out a bit. if he keeps hitting he could slide into the DH slot in KC whenever they're done with kendrys in a year or two, if dozier doesn't.

Really like the Joseph mention. And there's no 1b or heir apparent in Philly that's close to the majors. Worth an add in deep dynasty leagues for sure.

Almora I see as a guy that'll be way more valuable in real life than fantasy barring a jump in his tools and hitting ability. He was drafted high though and has high character so maybe there's growth to be had there.

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Rookie Davis SP Cincinnati

Built to be a workhorse @ 6-5 and 245 lbs

Off to a solid start this seaon, last year put up 129 Ks in 130 IP with only 26 BB.

i bet he can't wait to make the majors so that for the first time in his life his name will finally be accurate

here are some of the guys i've zeroed in on in the early going. i tend to go for somewhat weird, offbeat and post-hype guys... i also like bats

Tommy Joseph, 1B PHI (AAA)

was a reasonably big deal a few years back as a catcher in the giants system. traded to philly for hunter pence. then lost the last few years to concussions. 1B only now. but hitting like a bastard so far in AAA. very early going. but he seems to be healthy. and if you look back at his track record, before the concussions, he was doing some great things with the bat. especially when you look at his age. he was in high-A as a 19 year old, hitting for power without striking out a lot. that's insane. yes it was the california league but he was at san jose, which is one of the least hitty parks there. 1B in philly should be open after this year. i mean it's really open right now, but howard has tenure. if joseph keeps hitting he could be called up to replace ruf in the weak side of the platoon later in the year, as he's a RHH. could all fall apart next week but this is my favorite one right now.

Albert Almora, OF CHC (AAA)

still a big name but seems like everyone's cooled on him. had a crazy august last year in AA, now hitting over .300 with a solid walk rate in his first few weeks in AAA. only 22 years old, the only younger player in AAA is (was) mazara. has always made good contact and the defense is unquestioned, if he can walk (and his walk rate has been improving steadily every since everybody buried him for having a 2% BB% as a 20-year-old in AA) and hit for doubles power he should be a pretty good player pretty soon. caveat, probably not in a massively fantasy-sexy way. probably no big HR or SB numbers. but should hit for a good average in a good cubs lineup.

Ronald Guzman, 1B TEX (AA)

was a big deal along with mazara when both were signed for big money a few years ago. by now everyone has decided (understandably, and correctly) that mazara is the guy, and kind of moved on from guzman. but he's still real young for AA (21) and is hitting well to start the year. the controversial fangraphs prospect guy (who i personally like a lot) rated him #7 in the (strong) rangers system before the season, saying guzman was his pick for a rangers prospect hitter breakout this year.

Hunter Dozier, 3B KC (AA)

another guy everyone's given up on. just going off the early numbers here. they're good. his third stab at the level but he's still only 24. not impossible he's figured it out. not sure of this one, no scouting tips or anything to back it up.

Ryan O'Hearn, 1B KC (A+)

another pure numbers job. pretty much the best hitter in high-A so far. and he's in the carolina league, not the cali. 22 years old, neither good nor bad for the level. fangraphs guy liked him in the preseason too. strikes out a bit. if he keeps hitting he could slide into the DH slot in KC whenever they're done with kendrys in a year or two, if dozier doesn't.

Chelsor Cuthbert also fits the mold of guys like Joseph and Dozier.

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