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Yadier Alvarez - SP LAD

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This guy is so good. Saw this in the BA chat after the top 10 release today:

 

Ben (Olney, MD): I realize Alvarez has a very high ceiling and there are some durability concerns for De Leon but given how few innings Alvarez has pitched - and at low levels - I'm nevertheless surprised to see him ranked above De Leon. If you had only one in your organization would you want it to be Alvarez? Why? From what I can tell the Dodgers must agree (and perhaps the Twins do too given Dozier is still in Minnesota). Thanks!
Ben Badler: I would take Alvarez. I’ve been the high man on De Leon for a while—I remember a lot of surprise when we ranked him No. 6 in the system as a 24th round pick with four starts in full-season ball—but Alvarez is a potential frontline starter. Alvarez has a lot of risk, but the pure stuff is electric and better across the board the De Leon with the exception of the changeup, although that pitch flashes plus for Alvarez too. He misses a ton of bats and while his command need to improve, he answered a lot of questions about his strike-throwing ability last year. Can Alvarez hold his stuff more than five innings and handle a full season’s workload? That might be the biggest risk with him, but De Leon has pretty serious durability questions himself based on what’s happened the last couple of seasons. Given the frontline starter upside with Alvarez and the risk De Leon has even though he’s already reached the major leagues, I’d take Alvarez.

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Got Obliterated in his first start at high A:  7 ER in a couple inning, 2 walks, 2 wild pitches, no strikeouts.  Hopefully a matter of those mechanics being screwed up, but damn, that was a tough one!

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@JenksDodger

 

  • Carlton (San Diego): What do you see as far as time frame for the following pitching prospects to hopefully make the MLB rotation- Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez for the Dodgers and Morejon for the Padres. I know the results for Alvarez are not stellar this year, but from what I have watched online he still looks fine. Morejon is young, but seems advanced for his age. Could Buehler be in the Dodgers rotation to start next season ? Thanks so much


Kyle Glaser: Walker Buehler has a chance to start games in the big leagues next year. Morejon you're still looking at 2020-21. Yadier Alvarez actually there is very, very serious doubts he ever starts a game in the majors. As in, after speaking with a half dozen evaluators I can't find a single one who thinks he will. Neftali Feliz is the common comp for him. Electric arm, but slider is shoddy, command is poor and there is no usable third pitch that exists. The expectation is Alvarez becomes a future closer

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Thank god I moved him about an hour before this live chat, good bye value.

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35 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Thank god I moved him about an hour before this live chat, good bye value.

 

I moved him last week when I heard this info on the podcast.   Some rankings are going to remain high on him. Interesting to see which rankings drop him mid season.  He is coming off his best start.

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I traded this kid in a package to land Turner in a dynasty league, so while I think he's still too young to have the jury decide his future I'm of the belief that pitching prospects come around a lot more than a guy like Turner.  I hope he finds his way to the bigs, but nothing in his stats suggested he'd be a front of the line guy.  I don't think being a closer would be a bad route to go though.  He definitely has some nasty stuff. 

 

 

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I actually just bought him.  I know Baseball America does some very good work, but I also think they say some crazy stuff just to get clicks and attention for the publication.

 

Examples: "Alvarez never starts a game in the majors."  "AJ Puk is a once-in-a-decade talent."

 

Command takes time, especially for young athletic dudes with 100MPH stuff.  Depending on the price, I'd still gamble on this arm.

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3 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

Examples: "Alvarez never starts a game in the majors."  

 

Where did they say that for clicks?

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Where did they say that for clicks?

 

You just quoted Glasser above saying that in a chat.  That's the type of thing that spreads (just like getting posted in here), which drives traffic to baseball america, and so forth.  My guess is it's been tweeted by more than a few people as a result of his comments in the chat.

 

Another thing to keep in mind -- Baseball America, more than nearly any other ranking site, values floor over ceiling.  In the fantasy game, I'm not looking for another SP that's roughly equivalent to guys I can stream or easily trade for.  I'm looking for aces ... and there is unquestionably ace upside in Alvarez's arm.

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1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

 

You just quoted Glasser above saying that in a chat.  That's the type of thing that spreads (just like getting posted in here), which drives traffic to baseball america, and so forth.  My guess is it's been tweeted by more than a few people as a result of his comments in the chat.

 

Another thing to keep in mind -- Baseball America, more than nearly any other ranking site, values floor over ceiling.  In the fantasy game, I'm not looking for another SP that's roughly equivalent to guys I can stream or easily trade for.  I'm looking for aces ... and there is unquestionably ace upside in Alvarez's arm.

 

I agree the whole point of the following the chats is to fine nuggets that will influence our decision making process. Otherwise why read them?

 

I absolutely think Alvarez could put it together and be a great starter. I just disagree with the notion that the comment was said for the sake of clicks.

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It's been very quiet here lately... has anyone heard anything about his development? I'm thinking about selling in my dynasty.

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Big time control issues over the last couple months. I don't know that he's a good sell right now with those issues, but we're still talking about a top 10 or so pitching prospect with MLB #2-ish upside. Control issues are going to keep him from MILB until 2019 or so, but if he figures those out... look out.

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36 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Big time control issues over the last couple months. I don't know that he's a good sell right now with those issues, but we're still talking about a top 10 or so pitching prospect with MLB #2-ish upside. Control issues are going to keep him from MILB until 2019 or so, but if he figures those out... look out.

 

I sold super high before the midseason rankings.

 

Some rankings still have him generously ranked. I think the upside is still there, but if someone in your league is a believer, it would behoove you to move him to someone who sees Ace upside.

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I sold super high before the midseason rankings.

 

Some rankings still have him generously ranked. I think the upside is still there, but if someone in your league is a believer, it would behoove you to move him to someone who sees Ace upside.

 

 

I did the same thing. He's just far too risky to gamble on if someone is willing to part with an interesting piece. If I remember right my deal was, just for reference sake, my Yadier Alvarez,Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Sheffield for Tyler Skaggs and Sixto Sanchez.

Edited by Tryptamine

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