burty1

Ronald Acuna - OF ATL

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21 minutes ago, midlip said:

I got him in the 7th and definitely came away feeling I reached, but he was teh one guy I "had" to get as i'm all-in 

 

I wonder if sendign him down cools off the hype a bit, but def think Rounds 9-11 seem apprporiate 

Man that is crazy to me, I would think at least like 15th round after a lot of proven players are already taken I would maybe take this guy. I know he is not the level of prospect of Acuna, but just last year Bird was the hot spring training ticket and he ended up sucking. Trout's first run in the MLB was pretty bad and look at him now. Sure there are the Kris Bryant's of the world, but I could not justify taking such a risky pick so early in any draft. Anything under the 10th round seems ludicrous to me and even the 10th seems very early for a guy that has yet to take one AB in the MLB.

Edited by bdawkins456

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10 minutes ago, bdawkins456 said:

Man that is crazy to me, I would think at least like 15th round after a lot of proven players are already taken I would maybe take this guy. I know he is not the level of prospect of Acuna, but just last year Bird was the hot spring training ticket and he ended up sucking. Trout's first run in the MLB was pretty bad and look at him now. Sure there are the Kris Bryant's of the world, but I could not justify taking such a risky so early in any draft. Anything under the 10th round seems ludicrous to me and even the 10th seems very early.

 

Couple points. First, I largely agree that Spring Training numbers are misleading, but in Acuna's case, its a larger trend. Dominated the minor leagues (getting better at each level), dominated the Arizona Fall League (Youngest MVP ever), and one of the best springs in the league, That said, I absolutely cannot see paying the high price (pick 49) in NFBC, but 8th round? I think I could buy in there in roto.

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30 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Couple points. First, I largely agree that Spring Training numbers are misleading, but in Acuna's case, its a larger trend. Dominated the minor leagues (getting better at each level), dominated the Arizona Fall League (Youngest MVP ever), and one of the best springs in the league, That said, I absolutely cannot see paying the high price (pick 49) in NFBC, but 8th round? I think I could buy in there in roto.

I guess if he gets called up in a few weeks and tears it up all year then it would be obviously worth it, but I just think I will have to agree to disagree on the under double digit round flier on Acuna. His ADP on Yahoo right now is 184, I do not know if that is because people were not as high on the guy even just a few weeks ago or if people just are not going super high on Acuna just yet. However, it sounds like it would be a pipe dream to get him around there going off these boards. That is where I would like to draft a guy like this though as a mid-round flier, but not under pick 144.

Edited by bdawkins456

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I've done 3 drafts over the past few weeks, and have gotten him in the 13th round, 12th round, and 11th round (the most recent from Sunday).

Edited by jimbo504

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To me it doesn't really matter where people are drafting him.  Every league has different rules, different number of teams, roster sizes, etc.  You have to run the numbers and see what you think he will do for however long you will own him and go from there.

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My Ceiling: 30 HR, 39 SB, 105 R, 83 RBI, .330 AVG, .975 OPS

My Expectation: 22 HR, 25 SB, 70 R, 70 RBI, .280 AVG, .810 OPS

Floor: Anthopoulos keeps him down well into June and I hate his guts every minute past April 13th. 

 

*Disclosure: Hopelessly in love dynasty owner*

 

Here's the thing with the drafting position. People are drafting him based on his potential. The thing about his potential is that he could be a justified 1st round draft pick (once he's up). See below.

 

There's never been a player with the blazing carnage of a path through the minors as Ronald Acuna:

 

"Since 2006, Acuna is the only minor-league player to have posted improved wRC+ at three different stops in the same season .... While Acuna’s high-A 135 wRC+ wasn’t setting the world on fire, posting a 183 wRC+ at his third league level in a single season is untouchable."1  *ended with .135 A, .159 AA, .162(?) AAA.

 

wRC+ rankings below: If Acuna produces his Single A .135+ wRC+, he's Hosmer or better. Double A of .159+, Stanton or better. Triple A of .162+, Altuve or better. If he improves .013 (his rounded down average promotion wRC+ improvement between all level transitions) to .175+, Judge or better (i.e Trout).

 

That's the thing with potential -- it's potential until you realize it; then, it's reality. By the time it's reality, you're too late to invest on the ground floor.

 

So are you going to draft on potential?

 

Is your need for potential greater than your league-mates?

 

My strategy is to nominate him first in auctions and gauge the room -- I'll spend into the teens depending on how under the influence I am. Drunkness is another reason I nominate him first. I get drunker the more beer and wine I drink (i.e. the longer the draft takes). My strategy in snakes is to pray I have the courage and consumption fortitude to wait until round 7+. Any strategy is based on your and the draft room's interpretation of his potential versus how likely he is to be a rookie bust like Buxton.

 

5ab2eda7b54e7_2018-03-21_18h37_38-min(1).thumb.png.fa402a048cc7057d74237dae3e12eb7e.png

 

1: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa877503&position=OF

Edited by Fenamo
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3 hours ago, jimbo504 said:

I've done 3 drafts over the past few weeks, and have gotten him in the 13th round, 12th round, and 11th round (the most recent from Sunday).

got him in 14th round (139 overall) in draft yesterday.  I think where you dive in and get him depends on your league.  If you know the other owners dive deep in FB research, you might have to go earlier to get him.   If they're more casual owners you can probably wait around when I did or maybe a round later. 

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2 hours ago, Fenamo said:

My Ceiling: 30 HR, 39 SB, 105 R, 83 RBI, .330 AVG, .975 OPS

My Expectation: 22 HR, 25 SB, 70 R, 70 RBI, .280 AVG, .810 OPS

Floor: Anthopoulos keeps him down well into June and I hate his guts every minute past April 13th. 

 

*Disclosure: Hopelessly in love dynasty owner*

 

Here's the thing with the drafting position. People are drafting him based on his potential. The thing about his potential is that he could be a justified 1st round draft pick (once he's up). See below.

 

There's never been a player with the blazing carnage of a path through the minors as Ronald Acuna:

 

"Since 2006, Acuna is the only minor-league player to have posted improved wRC+ at three different stops in the same season .... While Acuna’s high-A 135 wRC+ wasn’t setting the world on fire, posting a 183 wRC+ at his third league level in a single season is untouchable."1  *ended with .135 A, .159 AA, .162(?) AAA.

 

wRC+ rankings below: If Acuna produces his Single A .135+ wRC+, he's Hosmer or better. Double A of .159+, Stanton or better. Triple A of .162+, Altuve or better. If he improves .013 (his rounded down average promotion wRC+ improvement between all level transitions) to .175+, Judge or better (i.e Trout).

 

That's the thing with potential -- it's potential until you realize it; then, it's reality. By the time it's reality, you're too late to invest on the ground floor.

 

So are you going to draft on potential?

 

Is your need for potential greater than your league-mates?

 

My strategy is to nominate him first in auctions and gauge the room -- I'll spend into the teens depending on how under the influence I am. Drunkness is another reason I nominate him first. I get drunker the more beer and wine I drink (i.e. the longer the draft takes). My strategy in snakes is to pray I have the courage and consumption fortitude to wait until round 7+. Any strategy is based on your and the draft room's interpretation of his potential versus how likely he is to be a rookie bust like Buxton.

 

5ab2eda7b54e7_2018-03-21_18h37_38-min(1).thumb.png.fa402a048cc7057d74237dae3e12eb7e.png

 

1: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa877503&position=OF

No way he stays down much past Apr 13th barring injury.  I live in Atlanta and there is obvious hype around him which will sell seats.    

Edited by DMurphy77
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10 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

No way he stays down much past Apr 13th barring injury.  I live in Atlanta and there is obvious hype around him which will sell seats.    

 

Anthopoulos scares me but I don't think so either. His recent quotes about how he wouldn't have moved him as fast as the last regime just frighten me. 

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36 minutes ago, Fenamo said:

 

Anthopoulos scares me but I don't think so either. His recent quotes about how he wouldn't have moved him as fast as the last regime just frighten me. 

He had to make something up for sending him down since Acuna was so hot in ST he couldn't really say he needs to work on anything.  But I have to agree with you on Antho, We have no idea how he's gonna handle this. He's been pretty quiet this entire offseason, Understandably with the International Violations under Coppolella. 

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14 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

So what would you guys say is the % chance he is called up by April 15th? 80% ??

 

I think 4/16 will be his debut...This is Kris bryant all over again. it will only be two weeks

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Sounds like he will be up for the Cubs series in April, from listening to Anthopolous on the radio today.

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I picked him at 88 yesterday in my 12 team H2H money league and I had been planning on taking him there for a solid two weeks. I'm all in on this kid and I'm having flashbacks of when I picked up Mike Trout off waivers back in 2012 and he was the #1 fantasy player in 5x5 after missing the month of April. Now I'm not saying Ronald is going to perform at that level but that's the kind of talent I see in this dude.

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Heh... Acuna might sign a longterm deal.   "In discussion" but nothing imminent (the day is young).  

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This dude is being drafted like he going to be 20/25 with a 290 BA, no way I can touch that right now.

 

Had to do an auction to get him and heck, went to $11 there!

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Anybody have some insight into when the earliest he could be called up? I guess the Minor leagues started today which has me already hoping for a quick call up.

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ground out and pop up so far in his first two at bats of game one.  Let's hope for a hot start so this guy gets called up next weekend!!

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either 4/13 or 4/16 if they want him to start at home.  or later if they want to get cute and play around.

Edited by ragrag

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