Nikola Jokic 2016-17 Season Outlook

[jsquints 878]

Second half of the season (43 games) he ranked 39th on only 24 minutes. I don't really understand how people think he will last beyond round 4/5 when he has already shown that is basically his floor. What kind of stats is he producing if he sees 30 minutes?!?<drools on keypad>. Is he going to see less than 24 mins next season?  I am 100% gambling that he wont.

 

Maybe he will last longer in some drafts, just consider yourself really lucky if he does. Because he won't if I am in there.

[Kaboom 3,207]

1 hour ago, jsquints said:

Second half of the season (43 games) he ranked 39th on only 24 minutes. I don't really understand how people think he will last beyond round 4/5 when he has already shown that is basically his floor. What kind of stats is he producing if he sees 30 minutes?!?<drools on keypad>. Is he going to see less than 24 mins next season?  I am 100% gambling that he wont.

 

Maybe he will last longer in some drafts, just consider yourself really lucky if he does. Because he won't if I am in there.

Over that same time period and adjusted for p/36:

 

 

[barcalover 10]

Exacly.

[SicarioSanity 289]

7 hours ago, jsquints said:

Second half of the season (43 games) he ranked 39th on only 24 minutes. I don't really understand how people think he will last beyond round 4/5 when he has already shown that is basically his floor. What kind of stats is he producing if he sees 30 minutes?!?<drools on keypad>. Is he going to see less than 24 mins next season?  I am 100% gambling that he wont.

 

Maybe he will last longer in some drafts, just consider yourself really lucky if he does. Because he won't if I am in there.

 

Man that's crazy. Can we really 200% expect that he'll see 30 plus minutes this season from him? Are you guys that confident? Faried, Nurkic, Gallo, Chandler (small ball 4s for the latter two), and coach Malone's favorite Darrell Arthur are still on the roster. 

 

For the same range that you guys foresee Jokic going, I think I'd rather just get Dieng in the same range. More lineup stability and Thibs coaching (BIG! minutes) looks to be a safer recipe for success this coming season. What do you guys think?

[jay14bay 850]

7 hours ago, jsquints said:

Second half of the season (43 games) he ranked 39th on only 24 minutes. I don't really understand how people think he will last beyond round 4/5 when he has already shown that is basically his floor. What kind of stats is he producing if he sees 30 minutes?!?<drools on keypad>. Is he going to see less than 24 mins next season?  I am 100% gambling that he wont.

 

Maybe he will last longer in some drafts, just consider yourself really lucky if he does. Because he won't if I am in there.

 

Just to pump the brakes a little bit here - 

 

Two of his three biggest strengths last season: TOs and FG% (the other was Reb.)

Obviously those two are not locks to be improved, given increased minutes.

[8th Leo 36]

1 hour ago, jay14bay said:

 

Just to pump the brakes a little bit here - 

 

Two of his three biggest strengths last season: TOs and FG% (the other was Reb.)

Obviously those two are not locks to be improved, given increased minutes.

At 32 games that he played over 24 mins,his average stats is 52.2%FG,1.34TO.

[jsquints 878]

2 hours ago, jay14bay said:

 

Just to pump the brakes a little bit here - 

 

Two of his three biggest strengths last season: TOs and FG% (the other was Reb.)

Obviously those two are not locks to be improved, given increased minutes.

 

Im not even sure what breaks need pumping. I haven't really made any significant predictions of any improvement in his game. He is already giving value in the 4/5 range without any minutes increase. I am just saying I plan to gamble on a few more minutes going his way. Are folks predicting he is going to regress as a player or see less minutes?

[Rhythms 133]

I would go as far as to say Jokic is a top 15 player given 30 minutes a game.

[GJDHouse 995]

I watch his game, and I like it, but I don't see a superstar.  I think his ceiling is Marc Gasol (and that is a REALLY good player), but his floor is probably closer to Jonas Valanciunas.  He has excellent footwork, but he is not a great athlete.  He can shoot, he can pass.  I think in his prime he is probably a 15 point 11 rebound 4 assist kind of guy with great percentages.  While very valuable, there is no way I would draft him in the first two rounds of a draft at this point.  

 

I think he is being overhyped a bit.  I like him a lot, but my guess is that he doesn't provide the ROI That most owners are looking for this year.

[rob0403 798]

11 hours ago, jay14bay said:

 

Just to pump the brakes a little bit here - 

 

Two of his three biggest strengths last season: TOs and FG% (the other was Reb.)

Obviously those two are not locks to be improved, given increased minutes.

I would expect his FG% and TO to possibly take a hit as opposing teams plan against him. Shooting more 3's may lower his FG% too. His 3pt looked great in the Olympics though so I think the FG may not change dramatically.

[joshoowah 219]

Sometimes this place is bat**** crazy, and I like it.

[Jake the snake 1,744]

4 hours ago, GJDHouse said:

I watch his game, and I like it, but I don't see a superstar.  I think his ceiling is Marc Gasol (and that is a REALLY good player), but his floor is probably closer to Jonas Valanciunas.  He has excellent footwork, but he is not a great athlete.  He can shoot, he can pass.  I think in his prime he is probably a 15 point 11 rebound 4 assist kind of guy with great percentages.  While very valuable, there is no way I would draft him in the first two rounds of a draft at this point.  

 

I think he is being overhyped a bit.  I like him a lot, but my guess is that he doesn't provide the ROI That most owners are looking for this year.

 

Just pick some big white guys for comparison? Lame...

 

He is nothing like JV. JV plays with Blinkers on and cannot see a pass for the life of him. he is all pick'n'roll and post action and slow on D, the Joker has much higher upside IMO (and I'm a raps fan). He is already a better defender than JV too

 

My concern with the lofty predictions is like many people the mins. Nurkic is going to be chomping at the bit for mins and they are both centres, He is a little slow to guard 4s but probably can, but the twin towers is not the best approach in the modern NBA (they'll get torched for speed). Faried is still around stealing peoples minutes, Gallo will play strech 4, Darrell Arthur, is gonna get his as he fits the modern stretch 4 role really well. Its going to be really hard to find 30mins per game without a Nurkic Trade, which doesn't seem likely given his injuires

[jay14bay 850]

13 hours ago, jsquints said:

 

Im not even sure what breaks need pumping. I haven't really made any significant predictions of any improvement in his game. He is already giving value in the 4/5 range without any minutes increase. I am just saying I plan to gamble on a few more minutes going his way. Are folks predicting he is going to regress as a player or see less minutes?

 

sorry my comment was not meant to be directed at you.  it was more for people like this:

 

12 hours ago, Rhythms said:

I would go as far as to say Jokic is a top 15 player given 30 minutes a game.

 

who have been commenting, in general, in this thread that Jokic is a 2nd round talent.  

[GJDHouse 995]

2 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Just pick some big white guys for comparison? Lame...

 

He is nothing like JV. JV plays with Blinkers on and cannot see a pass for the life of him. he is all pick'n'roll and post action and slow on D, the Joker has much higher upside IMO (and I'm a raps fan). He is already a better defender than JV too

 

My concern with the lofty predictions is like many people the mins. Nurkic is going to be chomping at the bit for mins and they are both centres, He is a little slow to guard 4s but probably can, but the twin towers is not the best approach in the modern NBA (they'll get torched for speed). Faried is still around stealing peoples minutes, Gallo will play strech 4, Darrell Arthur, is gonna get his as he fits the modern stretch 4 role really well. Its going to be really hard to find 30mins per game without a Nurkic Trade, which doesn't seem likely given his injuires

 

You don't see the Marc Gasol comparisons?  He seems like a perfect comp for Marc.  JV was more due to Jokic's lack of athleticism.  He can be slow footed at times and doesn't have much lift.  His footwork is impeccable which makes up for a lot of it, and he is a great passer and shooter.  I just don't see him reaching the elite tier with his athletic deficiencies.  He can be an excellent NBA player for a long time, but if you are hoping he is going to become a Perennial All Star I think you will be disappointed.  

[lisandro9 129]

But Marc Gasol is elite, is an All Star and probably the best C in the NBA or at least top 3 (before his injury). And what is really intriguing is that at Jokic's age Marc Gasol was a really bad player that went on loan to Girona hoping to prove that he is not a pro player thanks to his brother and with hard work he became what we see today. If Jokic works as hard as Marc his ceiling is much higher given the 3pt threat and the already amazing court vision for a 21 year old guy.

 

Of course these things are for the future. For now, I would never take him in rounds 2 or 3, but I would think about it in round 4. Depends on my previous selections.

[NBatum88 2,114]

On 8/15/2016 at 1:47 PM, NBatum88 said:

I am going to get Jokic at all costs. He is this year's CJ McCollum.

 

bump

 

[NBatum88 2,114]

Not sure if Magic Johnson or Lebron James

 

 

 

 

[GJDHouse 995]

12 hours ago, lisandro9 said:

But Marc Gasol is elite, is an All Star and probably the best C in the NBA or at least top 3 (before his injury). And what is really intriguing is that at Jokic's age Marc Gasol was a really bad player that went on loan to Girona hoping to prove that he is not a pro player thanks to his brother and with hard work he became what we see today. If Jokic works as hard as Marc his ceiling is much higher given the 3pt threat and the already amazing court vision for a 21 year old guy.

 

Of course these things are for the future. For now, I would never take him in rounds 2 or 3, but I would think about it in round 4. Depends on my previous selections.

 

Marc is a really good player but at the age of 31 he has been an allstar twice.  That was kind of my point.  Jokic can be really good (like Marc) if he reaches his potential, but his ceiling is a lot lower than big men with more athleticism.  He has elite court vision, is a good rebounder, and is a good shooter.  I think you coined it about right.  He is a 4th-5th rounder.  People in here discussing him as a top 15 player is what brought my comment.  40-60th picks?  Right on.  15-30 picks?  You are reaching big time.  Just my opinion.

[GmGodine 327]

Nuggets frontcourt is still crowded, it's his sophmore year where many players tend to miss the expected grow, i am not reaching

[NBatum88 2,114]

5 hours ago, GmGodine said:

Nuggets frontcourt is still crowded, it's his sophmore year where many players tend to miss the expected grow, i am not reaching

 

Lets say hypothetically Jokic doesn't improve at all. He was still ranked 47th overall last year. Ranked 25th over the last 3 months of the season. With minute averages in the low-to-mid 20s. Unless he gets injured, he's almost a lock to finish in the top 50, even with the low minutes.

 

If Jokic improves and/or gets more minutes, you're looking at a top 25 guy. Sure I wouldn't grab him with my first few picks. But anywhere after the 4th round he's honestly not a super risky pick. But we all have our own opinions so if you don't believe in him than grab someone else. Lots of good players you can draft instead.

 

Source:

Nikola Jokic

Rank	Value	Name	Team	g	min	pts	3	reb	ast	stl	blk	fg%	fga	ft%	fta	to	pV	3V	rV	aV	sV	bV	fg%V	ft%V	toV
47	0.09	NBA 15-16	DEN	80	1732:32	794	28	560	189	79	50	.511	599	.811	190	104	-0.57	-0.78	0.79	-0.19	0.13	0.01	0.75	0.22	0.42
12	0.48	Last Week	DEN	3	103:11	45	1	39	13	3	2	.607	28	.909	11	3	-0.08	-0.80	2.49	0.44	-0.26	-0.14	1.07	0.87	0.69
32	0.20	Last 2 Weeks	DEN	5	154:28	58	2	54	20	4	6	.564	39	.923	13	3	-0.93	-0.82	1.23	0.06	-0.80	0.41	0.67	0.73	1.30
25	0.21	Last Month	DEN	15	394:29	153	6	142	50	14	11	.484	124	.818	33	16	-0.59	-0.77	1.90	0.26	-0.03	0.16	0.15	0.20	0.61
29	0.23	Last 2 Months	DEN	28	693:18	303	12	252	92	28	22	.489	235	.847	72	40	-0.45	-0.68	1.60	0.22	0.14	0.29	0.28	0.43	0.21
25	0.30	Last 3 Months	DEN	43	1040:13	480	20	355	131	51	32	.492	372	.832	113	55	-0.32	-0.61	1.42	0.17	0.67	0.26	0.36	0.40	0.36

[jay14bay 850]

On 8/15/2016 at 1:47 PM, NBatum88 said:

I am going to get Jokic at all costs. He is this year's CJ McCollum.

 

4 hours ago, NBatum88 said:

Sure I wouldn't grab him with my first few picks. 

 

 

Just kidding.

 

P.S. those gifs are awesome

[NBatum88 2,114]

22 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

 

 

Just kidding.

 

P.S. those gifs are awesome

 

haha you got me. I should've written "I am going to get Jokic at all costs, within reason"

[zocalo08 94]

2nd year. Coaching staff loves this dude. 4th round is the highest I've seen him go so far, and that's where I'll be reaching.

[apatas 356]

Is here again going some hype as it was before last season with Gobert? I am playing in 20-team league and I can draft Jokic only in 4th round if he is available. He is the player who can really finish in TOP30, but as well he can fail also.

[Kaboom 3,207]

2 hours ago, apatas said:

Is here again going some hype as it was before last season with Gobert? I am playing in 20-team league and I can draft Jokic only in 4th round if he is available. He is the player who can really finish in TOP30, but as well he can fail also.

The real question is, where do you have him in your Provisional Rankings?