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Nikola Jokic 2016-17 Season Outlook

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1 hour ago, dboywong said:

I watched him drop to pick 59 in my draft this morning and couldn't pass him up. Just as insurance, I grabbed Nurkic at pick 123.

 

Kinda CSB worthy but yeah, that's how it went down.

59? whaaaat? Your league must not read any fantasy websites guarantee

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20 hours ago, atlantadynasty said:

59? whaaaat? Your league must not read any fantasy websites guarantee

I watched him sit there for about 15 picks and everybody bypassed him. They took the likes of Monroe, Gortat, Conley, Kanter in the 4 picks prior.

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1 hour ago, dboywong said:

I watched him sit there for about 15 picks and everybody bypassed him. They took the likes of Monroe, Gortat, Conley, Kanter in the 4 picks prior.

 

If that's a redraft money league, I may consider joining next year.

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His potential impact in his 2nd year is overstated on Rotoworld. He's a good player for %'s and out of position stats (assists, steals, and a sprinkle of blocks/3's), but I can't justify taking him that high when there are superior options on the board. In terms of value he's more of a 4th rounder for me. I'll let someone else reach based on his ranking in the 2nd, and nothing he's doing in preseason is making me think otherwise, he looks pretty much like the same player from last year. The Nuggets have too many mouths to feed, and already a super high usage big man next to him in Nurk. 

 

 

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It's not just the statistics which he is good at but the eye test where he looks like he can have a very high ceiling. 

 

However, I do agree with the concerns 100% that he may not get the usage/minutes. I recall Malone last year often playing funky lineups for stretches of games. There could be games where neither Nurkic or Jokic are on the floor for stretches. One argument in favor of Jokic though is that Nurkic fouls at a very high rate so that may limit Nurkic's minutes.

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Don't you think that Nurkic is not too much worse than Jokic? In our recent draft Jokic went 35th and Nurkic 102nd. This is too big difference. Jokic is more efficient and consistent, but Nurkic will prevail on points and rebounds. I still think Jokic is a little bit overvalued if we compare him to Nurkic.

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I think he is rightfully overvalued because of the concerns for Nurkic's durability. Nurkic for two seasons did literally nothing except for some flashes of potential while Jokic in his only season was a top-70 player in only 22 mins. Of course now that Nurkic has lost half his weight and Jokic is playing out of his strong position the gap has closed, but still fantasy wise Jokic seems to have a much higher ceiling.

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So what are people's predictions for this guy and why are people considering him in the 4th round when there are pretty solid choices around there. I just don't know what I'm going to get with this guy.

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1 hour ago, snerpy said:

So what are people's predictions for this guy and why are people considering him in the 4th round when there are pretty solid choices around there. I just don't know what I'm going to get with this guy.

 

14/9/3 with 3 combined st3ocks 50 fg% 80 ft%  1.5to's

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20 minutes ago, Sanjo16 said:

 

14/9/3 with 3 combined st3ocks 50 fg% 80 ft%  1.5to's

st3cks, bro

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On ‎17‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 3:13 PM, Lifschitz said:

His potential impact in his 2nd year is overstated on Rotoworld. He's a good player for %'s and out of position stats (assists, steals, and a sprinkle of blocks/3's), but I can't justify taking him that high when there are superior options on the board. In terms of value he's more of a 4th rounder for me. I'll let someone else reach based on his ranking in the 2nd, and nothing he's doing in preseason is making me think otherwise, he looks pretty much like the same player from last year. The Nuggets have too many mouths to feed, and already a super high usage big man next to him in Nurk. 

 

 

 

If he is the same player as last year that makes him a first rounder a per minute basis. So the only real risk is minutes. 27 and he is a great value 3rd rounder, 32 and he becomes the steal of the draft.

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I predict tears in this thread come mid-November if you picked him in the top 40.

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57 minutes ago, JStyles said:

I predict tears in this thread come mid-November if you picked him in the top 40.

 

Tears of Joy!

 

3 hours ago, tongs said:

st3cks, bro

 

Yeah st3cks. Thanks for correcting

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1 hour ago, Sanjo16 said:

 

Tears of Joy!

 

Hopefully lol. I was able to nab him at 44 in a 12 team league. Couldn't believe he was still on the board.

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5 hours ago, BAKIBAKI said:

 

 

If he is the same player as last year that makes him a first rounder a per minute basis. So the only real risk is minutes. 27 and he is a great value 3rd rounder, 32 and he becomes the steal of the draft.

 

You can go ahead and take him what ever round you want. I'll take higher ceiling players in the 2nd. The type of league you play matters. I think he is too low ceiling for a 2nd rounder in a H2H. I can take a player who will give me far more explosive stat lines, he's a nice safe player with a decent floor, I just think getting a 10 / 7 / 3 / 1 / 1 guy with nice %'s isn't what I'm looking for with my 2nd pick. He can do more sure, but as I said previously that team is loaded with options and if you watch their offense they don't force feed him the ball the way they do Nurkic. Their wing players and PG are also shoot first ask questions later types. Can you imagine taking Jokic over Horford / Porzingis? They can do everything he can but far better (Zinger's blocks/3's trump Jokic's assists imo).

Jokic is a very nice player to have - I don't argue that and I would love him on my roster but not at that price, I just think he's not going to give monster lines, which is what I expect from my second rounder in H2H. 3rd - 4th round, sure, no problem. It's the same thing with Dieng for me, in their latest rankings he's now going as early as late 2nd up to the end of the 3rd based on his updated ranking.. these guys are perfect for Roto leagues because they're the complete package with all around lines, but I just can't justify taking Dieng ahead of someone like Gobert or whatever other bigs are in that range.. can you imagine taking Dieng over Brook Lopez for example (barring any health issues)? You're talking about guys who have a propensity to put up big stats/lines, where as Dieng certainly will fill it up across the board, but he's an efficiency type player where you know his statistical ceiling - much like Robin Lopez (whom is very similar to Dieng but I can get several rounds later). They're good players to put on a Kawhi type team if you want the all efficiency team, but you will have problems if you can't rack up rebounds/blocks etc. and you could still lose the cats which you're strong at. 

 

Don't get me wrong, never hurts to draft efficiency - those teams tend to do very well during the fantasy season.

 

It all depends on your draft philosophy really and what type of team you're building. For the type of team I'm going for, Jokic isn't a 2nd rounder. 

 

 

 

 

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On 10/17/2016 at 5:19 PM, RipCity0 said:

I think he is rightfully overvalued because of the concerns for Nurkic's durability. Nurkic for two seasons did literally nothing except for some flashes of potential while Jokic in his only season was a top-70 player in only 22 mins. Of course now that Nurkic has lost half his weight and Jokic is playing out of his strong position the gap has closed, but still fantasy wise Jokic seems to have a much higher ceiling.

 

Conversely, Jokic looked pretty bad in the Rio olympics (he had one monster game vs the US and sucked the rest of the tournament). You also never know what you get with 2nd year players, the hype can be huge and then they don't return what you thought they will (and this happen far more often than not). Jokic might not even have the ceiling people thought he does since he already surprised everyone in the first place, and will simply be what he is currently (much like JV, people thought he has this monster ceiling but he pretty much looks like the same player his entire career with a slightly more refined post game). 

 

I'm seeing these 14/9/3 projections and they seem quite outlandish to me. Nurkic is still young and he lost a ton of weight, he just played like a beast in the latest tournament and so far in preseason, they're not even at full strength and Jokic isn't being featured much within the schemes. 

 

Nevertheless, preseason means very little in terms of trying to figure out how guys will do during the year. I think the projections I'm currently seeing are outlandish - I always try to mitigate the projections now to only slightly better because it's more realistic and the situation the player is in matters. I remember seeing on the rotoworld draft guide that they expect him to average 15 / 12 / 4 / 1+ / 1 as soon as this year with crazy %'s... that would make him a better rebounding version of Marc Gasol and an easy top 6 value, and even though the comparison is there for some of the same output and play style- I think he is more of a Marc-lite as opposed to a rich man's version.

 

 

 

 

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I strongly disagree that Jokic's ceiling might not be what most people think because he is way too skilled for a 21 year old guy. A 21 year old guy with such court vision is extremely rare and as a bonus his range goes to the 3pt line. He is not a typical tall guy that just rebounds, blocks shots and scores inside the paint and you pretty much expect him to just do it in a higher rate as he earns experience. He has a unique all around game for his age that screams high ceiling. This basketball IQ you cannot teach.

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I think he will be one of the most consistent players in the league but it doesn't necessarily means that he will have crazy lines

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This kid is very talented but with Denver's big man situation the way it is, I'll stay away, at least for now.

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just have PF eligibility in yahoo:lol:

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Too much hype on this guy, looks like Marc Gasol lite to me but in a less ideal situation in Denver.

 

I agree that you have to tamper your expectations on the guy, and drafting him on the 2nd or 3rd round is a big gamble since a lot of better guys are still in play at that time. Dude went on the 2nd round in my league, drafted by the guy who took rudy gobert on the first round last season. We all know how that turned out.

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1 hour ago, Slickthenick said:

Gorgui Dieng with less stocks. Late 4th round seems more likely 

Not really comparable at all...

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1 hour ago, srb said:

Not really comparable at all...

Ummm do tell more

 

they'll both average around 12 points 10 boards and have great percentages. Jokic will have better assists and dieng better stocks. So yeah, pretty damn comparable. Oh! And they're both more natural centres playing the 4 position. If you're expecting more from jokic you might be disappointed

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